The Turd humbly submits a short reading list for the weekend.
First of all, we should discuss the latest CoT. I was all excited to see the numbers and, instead, it's mostly a non-event with no clear signals either way. Gold, as discussed here repeatedly, has seen its total OI fall under 400,000 which is down about 20% from the OI highs of late February. This past reporting week alone, total OI fell over 1% but the internals are kind of strange. Spec longs and Cartel longs both cut about 2,300 contracts while The Cartel short position increased by about 2,700. Interestingly, long and short small specs both fell by nearly 2,000. What the heck is going on here? Beat's the living daylights out of me! Here's the weirdest part: Large spec shorts declined by 7,648 or roughly 22%. It's only one indicator but, on balance, this report does not indicate that gold is ready to explode higher. Maybe sometime soon but likely not yet.
In silver, the picture is equally confusing. In stark contrast to gold, the large specs did virtually nothing. The small specs though, who were busily dumping long and short positions in gold, were busily adding long and short positions in silver. Huh? Very strange. On top of this, the EE added long and short positions, too, though the longs addition was about twice the short addition in percentage terms, bringing the net short ratio down to 1.59:1. Again, in contrast to gold, total OI surged over 6% to 121,448, all while price for the period was essentially flat. Very, very strange.
I mean, it's just weird. Total OI is the highest it has been all year but price is down $6 from its high. And, a month ago, silver OI was just 107,000 while price was roughly $32, right where it is today. So, why the tug-of-war? A 13% rise in OI while price is flat. Gonna have to think about this one for a while but something odd is going on. Just can't put my finger on it yet.
Perhaps it has something to do with this? The changing tides of registered and eligible silver are getting a lot of attention these days. Andrew Maguire told me earlier this week that he didn't think it was that big of a deal as he was once in a vault where registered vs eligible is simply delineated by a big, blue line on the floor and silver is routinely moved by forklift each way and back. Maybe that's the case but it seems that Jesse doesn't think so.
More on the silver story comes from Goldcore. (Maybe they should rename it Gold&Silvercore?)
And if you haven't watched this yet, you probably should:
ZeroHedge posted this interesting compilation a few hours ago. They address the negative press that gold has gotten this week. I enjoyed reading it because I had no idea that these articles cited were even out there. The one that addresses gold OI I found to be particularly negligent as it paints a picture of declining Comex demand as an indicator of declining investment demand. What a joke! As a source, it uses a London-based analyst with Credit Suisse. The source, Cilline Bain, four years removed from university, is either hopelessly inexperienced, deliberately misleading or just plain stupid. (https://uk.linkedin.com/in/cillinebain)
Here's another fun piece on gold manipulation, this time from Patrick Heller at Liberty Coin.
And, finally, when looking for the CoT numbers at goldseek, I found this piece of TA. It's reasonably well-written and likely worth a few minutes of your time.
Alright, that's it. It's late Friday afternoon and I need a beer (or 6). It's officially springtime so I think I'll crack open either a Shiner Blonde or a Sam Adams Summer Ale. Tough choice, huh? Hang in there and keep the faith. Try to get some R&R this weekend as next week promises to be pretty volatile with the French elections, the continuing deterioration in Spain and the FOMC meeting.
See you Monday unless the beer helps to clarify the weird CoT and OI changes in silver, in which case I'll add an update to this post.