Here Comes Turd, Hat In Hand

Wed, Apr 18, 2012 - 10:27am

I must be a glutton for punishment.

In order to give all the Turdhaters some additional ammunition, I come to you today with another request for funding. The site needs improvements to keep it from crashing so often but the bills have stacked high while "revenue enhancement" plans have taken longer than expected to implement. Therefore, I need some help. More on that in a minute. First, the charts.

Longtime Turdites will recall how much of what I do is based upon "feel" and pattern recognition. When fighting within wholly-manipulated markets, these two traits allow you to survive. However, man does not exist on "feel" alone. Fundamentals such as simple supply/demand, the changes to Open Interest, the bullishness/bearishness of the CoT etc, all must be taken into consideration, as well. And currently, the fundos look great so why am I so uneasy?

Do you recall this chart from 3/28?

The crude fundos were, and continue to be, very strong. Very few doubt that crude will continue higher long-term based upon dollar devaluation and geo-political risk. However, a clear "line in the sand" had been drawn at 104.50-105.00 and all sorts of sell stops had been placed below that line. Then, even though the global crude oil market is enormous and dwarfs the gold and silver markets, the stops got "gunned". Here's the chart from two days later:

How did this happen? Was it manipulation? In this case, no. The crude oil market is too large and diverse to be openly manipulated like gold and silver. What happened was that a delicate balance of buyers and sellers was broken when buyers temporarily stepped away. With more sellers than buyers left in the arena, down went price, through 104.50. The sell stops were then triggered and price fell very sharply to $102. Though it has since recovered and even traded back above $105 yesterday, that fact is small consolation to those who got their guts ripped out on 3/30.

OK, so what's the point, you ask? I fear that we are in the verge of a similar event in the metals, particularly silver.

As discussed here extensively, interest and activity on the Comex is waning. Post-MFG, the primary participants left are the Cartel monkeys and the HFT WOPRs. There are times when they balance each other out but, since the WOPRs are mainly programmed to follow technicals, and, since the current technicals aren't overly friendly, we end up with an unbalanced paper market where sellers outnumber buyers. The balance to this is the physical demand we continue to see in London and other venues. Simply put, paper price declines to the point where physical demand appears, which forces paper price back up. A sort of equilibrium and the primary reason why gold and silver have been mostly rangebound for the past month.

My concern is this: If you were one of these sovereign or big money buyers in London, why wouldn't you simply step back for a few days and see just how low the Cartels are willing to push? Seriously, why the heck wouldn't you? You might be content to "scale in" with your purchases for a while but if the stupid, arrogant Western bankers are willing to jam paper price lower for you, why not let them? And, like the crude market of late March, all it will take is a day or two of no big physical buying and paper price will tank. You, the big buyer, then can come back in a week later or so and buy a whole bunch of physical at a steeply discounted price.

Now, look at the charts below for silver. Do they not resemble the crude charts for late March? There's a clear point where buyers have continually emerged around $31 to $31.35. Even if I were a "resolute long", prudence would demand that I have at least a few stops right under $31 because if $31 were to fail, silver is headed to $30 or perhaps even a little lower.

As you know, silver and gold are about 95% correlated so let's just say the scenario described above plays out. The big money buyers in London take a few days off and gold falls down through $1635 and toward $1615. What do you think would happen to silver? It would be 30 and change in a heartbeat! In the end, I'm not saying that silver is going to collapse within the next hour. I'm simply warning you that, like crude in late March, this type of event is possible. On the bright side, like crude, silver will base and quickly recover. Like crude, the fundamentals are too strong to keep it down for long and any drop toward $30 in silver would be an excellent opportunity to BTFD.

OK, back to the problem at hand with the site. I'm sure that most of you have noticed that the site has a tendency to lock up and crash during traffic spikes. I've had the Tech Team looking into it and they've concluded that it's primarily due to all the fancy, little fun stuff that I wanted built into it...the HatTips, the titles for each member like Muckman and Stomachlobber, even the liberty to post and store any video or picture you wish to post slows down the site. Most of the time, everything is fine but, when hundreds of folks try to refresh pages at once, the resulting traffic "bottleneck" is giving us fits. The good news is that this can be fixed. The bad news is that it will cost me a few bucks to do it.

So, I must ask you to consider helping out. The idea behind the subscription component of the site was to generate consistent monthly revenue. I had planned for the monthly fee to be under $5. Please ask yourself if this is reasonable. Do you get 17 cents per day worth of enjoyment, camraderie and knowledge from the site. If so, please consider enrolling for an ongoing donation. By clicking the "Feed The Turd" button to the right, you'll be directed to a PayPal screen where you can donate once or set yourself up for an ongoing, $5/month (or more) donation. Even simple, one-time donations can make a big difference. If the 25,000 or so individuals who visit this site daily all donated just a dollar, we'd be cooking. anyone who has donated in the past knows, each and every contribution is valued and important to me. I don't take this responsibility lightly and I don't take you for granted. However, the site is running on fumes financially so I feel I must make this request. Thank you for your consideration.

Hopefully, sometime soon, site revenues will increase. Once we are turning a profit, I still hope to schedule Turdapalooza, complete with open bar. Maybe that's just a silly dream but I hope not. The image in my head of 1000 big yellow hats "protesting" in front of 33 Liberty Street is too compelling to ignore.

Thank you all for your support, financial and otherwise. Keep the faith and keep stacking. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 19, 2012 - 7:10am


Does the last week or so count as stocks/gold decoupling? If so then more importantly, for the uninitiated like me, this is a good thing right? Even though they are currently heading in the wrong directions for my liking?!?

Eric Original
Apr 19, 2012 - 7:19am

Way to go Sens

Xty, I bet Mouse was pretty fired up about that.

Apr 19, 2012 - 7:20am

@ 99th monkey

would it help if you knew that a very nice guy who happens to be an expert and with a penchant for golden ties just bought a large amount of silver this last friday?

Apr 19, 2012 - 7:30am

Pic and tweet of the day

'Jim' 'Treacher' ‏ @jtLOL

Romney put a dog on top of a car. Obama put a dog on top of rice. #WeWillNotBeSilenced

Bobbejaan Doctor J
Apr 19, 2012 - 7:37am

@Dr Jerome ... RE:- Dodged a bullet today!

You are NOT alone!! :-

..... also told ABC that while his pistol “sailed past” the screener, a woman behind him was stopped for having liquids in her bag.

The incident underscores how the enhanced and invasive TSA security procedures are pure theatre and do nothing to make anyone safer.

While the agents are busy singling out the elderly and the disabled for enhanced screening, groping women’s breasts, telling people they are “God”, and locking travelers in glass boxes over liquids such as breast milk, other passengers are being allowed to waltz through security with loaded guns and even explosive material.

As the ABC report highlights, the Department of Homeland Security has classified the results of random, covert “red team tests,” where undercover agents try to see what they can get past airport security, because the results have been so shockingly bad for the past nine years:

According to one report, undercover TSA agents testing security at a Newark airport terminal on one day in 2006 found that TSA screeners failed to detect concealed bombs and guns 20 out of 22 times. A 2007 government audit leaked to USA Today revealed that undercover agents were successful slipping simulated explosives and bomb parts through Los Angeles’s LAX airport in 50 out of 70 attempts, and at Chicago’s O’Hare airport agents made 75 attempts and succeeded in getting through undetected 45 times.



TSA’s Top Transgressions: Who Is Doing The Terrorizing? :-

Apr 19, 2012 - 7:39am
Apr 19, 2012 - 7:43am

I wonder if the UN or the US will criticise this

India test-fires 'China killer' missile capable of reaching Beijing, Europe members allowed

Apr 19, 2012 - 7:45am


interesting cuba has higher life expectancy than the US.

i guess 36 childhood vaccines[US has close to highest rate of autism IN THE WORLD]

and a window sill full of drugs you must take everyday [my old buddy frank,87, had 28 of them----we threw them away n he felt MUCH better(can you imagine the drug interactions of 28 drugs????????)] DO NOT GET YOU MUCH.

imagine that.

the FDA is worse than the FED

murphy George Clooney
Apr 19, 2012 - 7:49am


Love that Mouse!

Congrats on attaining Sourdough status. Even with time off for good or bad behavior... I'm not sure which.

Apr 19, 2012 - 7:56am


Quite possibly just me and my impatience but seems like a lifetime ago when we were watching the metals achieving new heights, come on ladies (not sexist to feminise gold and silver is it?!) you know you want to! Break free and go forth to perform your true function...

Big Buffalo
Apr 19, 2012 - 7:59am

Gunning the metals

Good call by Turd.

Spanish bonds sale and China lowering bank reserves and jobless claims report coming out in an hour. Options expiry today. Sure looks like its going to be a rough day for the metals. May be a good day to trade the dip.

I've seen a couple posts regarding "no way silver can go to $20 or $18, the financial world would collapse", or "no way gold could go down to $1200".... The metals were there just 2 years ago. If this happens, Wall Street will not collapse, the US and world economies will not collapse. You would think there would be a lot of people BTFD, but if this happens, how many people would have capitulated and given up on metals?

Now, I do not believe or hope it happens...unless the Debt and budget starts to see green....which is not happening anytime soon.

Ponzi scheme, yes! Kicking can down the road, yes. Metals dropping to $1500-$1200 (gold) and silver $20...nothing is impossible.

BTW - I just bought 6 Standing Liberty Quarters and a roll of Walking Liberty half dollars last night. Again, the Walking Liberty half dollar is just one of the nicest US coin ever created.I'll buy this things all day long. High Premium or not.

Apr 19, 2012 - 8:01am


Do you think the big money is waiting for a dip below 1600 to load up? If so, are the cartel in the business of giving others what they want?

Apr 19, 2012 - 8:01am

$31.30 silver continues to hold

Pretty impressive.

Apr 19, 2012 - 8:05am

Apr 19, 2012 - 8:06am

murphy - a bit of both! - boatman - not a fair comparison

Comparing life expectancies in different countries is very difficult - and before you start an anti-vaccine diatribe, which will cause much argument - it is important to know at what stage a country considers a baby viable. I believe in the US it is an incredible 24 weeks of gestation - i.e. a doctor will attempt to save a baby born that early, and if it dies, it counts in terms of life expectancy and really whacks the averages. But if all babies born before term are not considered live births, then the rates go up. So there is absolutely no way to know the real life expectancy in Cuba - as any statistics are questionable at best from their government, and there standards are probably very different. I believe in Canada we are about 2 weeks later - makes a big difference. So quick to judge the states - but maybe a little research would go a long way. And a capital letter or two, while I'm at it.

So if you really think you would have a better health outcome living in Cuba, or that if your children are born there they will out-live their US counterparts, be my guest.

York Rite
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:14am

Blessed Relief

One small consolation to be taken from this continuing underwhelming action in gold and silver is that the noisiest salesmen (aka pumpers) who never explicitly said but always actually meant, "buy my stuff now 'cause it's gonna rocket in price in (insert number of days/weeks)" have wound their collective necks in since the February 29th horror show.

ClinkinKY Big Buffalo
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:15am

@ Big Bufalo

6 Standing Liberty Quarters and a roll of Walking Liberty half dollars last night.


Two of the most beautiful coins ever minted. Puts "contemporary" designs to shame IMHO.

Bobbejaan Doctor J
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:15am

MORE Law Enforcement

Dr Jerome said :-

I found this TSA training video...

I thought y'all might like this UK Training video, too

Constable Savage

Things also didn't work out so well when Deputy-Sheriff Savage replaced his UK-brother as part of the "Joint UK-USA Peace Officer Exchange Program", either :-

Constable Savage
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:18am

who oh who is selling?

who oh who is selling? central banksters?

Be Prepared
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:25am
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:28am
Be Prepared
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:28am
Big Buffalo
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:29am
Be Prepared
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:32am
Be Prepared
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:36am
Apr 19, 2012 - 8:39am


i promise you if i had children they would not have 36 vaccines.

while hospitals are fine for car wrecks, their recpord on disease is not great.

i showed my neighbor's doctor how my neighbor has lyme disease instead of ALS.

but he just died of an infection he got IN the hospital.

then there's my GF's cousin who went in for a routine colonoscopy and came out 6 weeks later after they nicked his colon.

do not get a colonoscopy.......they chances of them saving u from cancer [.5%] EQUAL the chances of them killing you.


you can pretty much have your doctors.....they are not as informed as you think.

i've been through it.

Apr 19, 2012 - 8:39am

Apr 19, 2012 - 8:42am


My wife and I did not vaccinate our children. We can count on one hand the times that the two of them have ever been sick (other than an occasional cold). Now they are adults and they can decide for themselves.

Apr 19, 2012 - 8:43am

boatmen - yes, medical horror stories abound

but that doesn't change my point about how life expectancy gets measured. And if you had children, and didn't get them vaccinated, then I sure hope you live in a bubble and don't kill any surrounding kids with whooping cough. But if you haven't had kids, then maybe you haven't carefully examined the vaccination question. It is great that you are smarter than a nearby doctor. I am smarter than lots of people too - but that doesn't mean their professions are nonsense. In fact, I can't really address your argument, because I don't get it - bad things have happened to people who get modern medical care, so I won't get it myself. Seems to leave out the good things that have happened. And too late about the colonoscopy, but I am here, living, to tell you about it, if you really want! You see, they take this tiny camera ....

Apr 19, 2012 - 8:47am

Dr Jerome

I usually agree with you, but on that one, let's just let it ride. I disagree, you clearly will disagree when you see what I posted before I saw your comment. Nuff said.

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