Here Comes Turd, Hat In Hand

Wed, Apr 18, 2012 - 10:27am

I must be a glutton for punishment.

In order to give all the Turdhaters some additional ammunition, I come to you today with another request for funding. The site needs improvements to keep it from crashing so often but the bills have stacked high while "revenue enhancement" plans have taken longer than expected to implement. Therefore, I need some help. More on that in a minute. First, the charts.

Longtime Turdites will recall how much of what I do is based upon "feel" and pattern recognition. When fighting within wholly-manipulated markets, these two traits allow you to survive. However, man does not exist on "feel" alone. Fundamentals such as simple supply/demand, the changes to Open Interest, the bullishness/bearishness of the CoT etc, all must be taken into consideration, as well. And currently, the fundos look great so why am I so uneasy?

Do you recall this chart from 3/28?

The crude fundos were, and continue to be, very strong. Very few doubt that crude will continue higher long-term based upon dollar devaluation and geo-political risk. However, a clear "line in the sand" had been drawn at 104.50-105.00 and all sorts of sell stops had been placed below that line. Then, even though the global crude oil market is enormous and dwarfs the gold and silver markets, the stops got "gunned". Here's the chart from two days later:

How did this happen? Was it manipulation? In this case, no. The crude oil market is too large and diverse to be openly manipulated like gold and silver. What happened was that a delicate balance of buyers and sellers was broken when buyers temporarily stepped away. With more sellers than buyers left in the arena, down went price, through 104.50. The sell stops were then triggered and price fell very sharply to $102. Though it has since recovered and even traded back above $105 yesterday, that fact is small consolation to those who got their guts ripped out on 3/30.

OK, so what's the point, you ask? I fear that we are in the verge of a similar event in the metals, particularly silver.

As discussed here extensively, interest and activity on the Comex is waning. Post-MFG, the primary participants left are the Cartel monkeys and the HFT WOPRs. There are times when they balance each other out but, since the WOPRs are mainly programmed to follow technicals, and, since the current technicals aren't overly friendly, we end up with an unbalanced paper market where sellers outnumber buyers. The balance to this is the physical demand we continue to see in London and other venues. Simply put, paper price declines to the point where physical demand appears, which forces paper price back up. A sort of equilibrium and the primary reason why gold and silver have been mostly rangebound for the past month.

My concern is this: If you were one of these sovereign or big money buyers in London, why wouldn't you simply step back for a few days and see just how low the Cartels are willing to push? Seriously, why the heck wouldn't you? You might be content to "scale in" with your purchases for a while but if the stupid, arrogant Western bankers are willing to jam paper price lower for you, why not let them? And, like the crude market of late March, all it will take is a day or two of no big physical buying and paper price will tank. You, the big buyer, then can come back in a week later or so and buy a whole bunch of physical at a steeply discounted price.

Now, look at the charts below for silver. Do they not resemble the crude charts for late March? There's a clear point where buyers have continually emerged around $31 to $31.35. Even if I were a "resolute long", prudence would demand that I have at least a few stops right under $31 because if $31 were to fail, silver is headed to $30 or perhaps even a little lower.

As you know, silver and gold are about 95% correlated so let's just say the scenario described above plays out. The big money buyers in London take a few days off and gold falls down through $1635 and toward $1615. What do you think would happen to silver? It would be 30 and change in a heartbeat! In the end, I'm not saying that silver is going to collapse within the next hour. I'm simply warning you that, like crude in late March, this type of event is possible. On the bright side, like crude, silver will base and quickly recover. Like crude, the fundamentals are too strong to keep it down for long and any drop toward $30 in silver would be an excellent opportunity to BTFD.

OK, back to the problem at hand with the site. I'm sure that most of you have noticed that the site has a tendency to lock up and crash during traffic spikes. I've had the Tech Team looking into it and they've concluded that it's primarily due to all the fancy, little fun stuff that I wanted built into it...the HatTips, the titles for each member like Muckman and Stomachlobber, even the liberty to post and store any video or picture you wish to post slows down the site. Most of the time, everything is fine but, when hundreds of folks try to refresh pages at once, the resulting traffic "bottleneck" is giving us fits. The good news is that this can be fixed. The bad news is that it will cost me a few bucks to do it.

So, I must ask you to consider helping out. The idea behind the subscription component of the site was to generate consistent monthly revenue. I had planned for the monthly fee to be under $5. Please ask yourself if this is reasonable. Do you get 17 cents per day worth of enjoyment, camraderie and knowledge from the site. If so, please consider enrolling for an ongoing donation. By clicking the "Feed The Turd" button to the right, you'll be directed to a PayPal screen where you can donate once or set yourself up for an ongoing, $5/month (or more) donation. Even simple, one-time donations can make a big difference. If the 25,000 or so individuals who visit this site daily all donated just a dollar, we'd be cooking. anyone who has donated in the past knows, each and every contribution is valued and important to me. I don't take this responsibility lightly and I don't take you for granted. However, the site is running on fumes financially so I feel I must make this request. Thank you for your consideration.

Hopefully, sometime soon, site revenues will increase. Once we are turning a profit, I still hope to schedule Turdapalooza, complete with open bar. Maybe that's just a silly dream but I hope not. The image in my head of 1000 big yellow hats "protesting" in front of 33 Liberty Street is too compelling to ignore.

Thank you all for your support, financial and otherwise. Keep the faith and keep stacking. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 18, 2012 - 11:31am

Fed Da' Turds

Don't post much lately but enjoy Turdville every day. Thanks to the Turdmeister and all the Turdittes for an entertaining and informative blog.


Silver Meddler
Apr 18, 2012 - 11:32am

More Anti-Gold Sentiment

From Yahoo Finance:

Gold Heading to $700: Author, Yoni Jacobs, Sees "Impending Collapse"

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:33am


After reading todays update, I looked over the port side of our silver ship which has been sailing for a long time and I saw many climbing the ropes into their rafts. Some were putting in orders to buy ZSL & DZZ along with some better shorts. This looks like another way to lose some fiat and that fiat is looking like a good buy as the ship sails away. The perception bug has bitten and the curve in perception is downward. It will take a big medicine event to turn the gold/silver ship to new upper end prices. jmo

John Galt 50sQuiff
Apr 18, 2012 - 11:37am

Russia Selling Gold and Silver?

I highly doubt that the Russians are dumb enough to sell physical gold and silver in exchange for paper currency. Perhaps they are selling paper PMs for yuan and rupees, and then using those currencies to buy hard goods from China and Indian instead.

But since I am willing to keep an open mind to the possibility that they are liquidating physical PMs, let me say that I have a rare unicorn that I'd be willing to sell for $1,000,000 worth of physical.

Mind you it is a paper unicorn, but it is a valuable unicorn nonetheless.

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:43am



First off, thanks for the new thread and your thoughts. As always, we appreciate the considerable time and effort your putting into this for us. And the headaches you put up with that none of us probably realize.

Having said that, $5 a month is peanuts and very affordable and I would hope that everyone who just read that part of TF's post seriously considers contributing at least that much or more. Everyone who visits here regularly knows what type of value and information we get from the site in many ways. Including the community and camraderie aspect of the site that can't be understated.

Fwiw, I happily donate $25 a month and have done so for awhile. I use PayPal and have had NO problems whatsoever. I actually feel I should contribute a bit more. To me it's a bargain.

Less then a $1 a day and I get to have some fun and post whatever I want (to a point) in many different area's or threads on the site. I don't facebook or twitter or whatever so this is my social media web site by choice.

I sat down and read TF's thread and felt compelled to write what I just did as a way of showing my support openly to TF and the site and to ask some of you to consider at least contributing $5 a month or more. I realize many or some of you might think "Why?" the internet is free and there are sites all over the place. Not like this site, and you know it. That's why your here right now and possibly reading this.

TF mentions $5 and that blows my mind a bit because he's being super generous with that offer. I would ask some of you to consider at least that much or even double if possible. $.20 to $.30 a day is peanuts.

Think about setting down a couple thin dimes everyday for the amount that the site potentially benefits you when you come on. Whether it's the community aspect, the news you read or the PM investing etc. that your here's free. Please consider donating a small amount to help out and make the site better for all of us, yourself included.

I wrote this on my own with no input from the site because I support the site and TF and what he's about and what he's been doing and continues to do for us...for free.

Please consider donating a couple thin dimes a day or a minimum amount per month. It's a screaming bargain and the right thing to do, imho.

Thanks for helping him (and all of us) out in any way you might be able to.

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:43am

re bitcoin

bitcoin is doing nice, broke 5$ today

Best bid: 5.12141, Best ask: 5.12142, Bid-ask spread: 9.99999999962e-06,
Last trade: 5.12141, 24 hour volume: 78078, 24 hour low: 4.94, 24 hour
high: 5.1782

see you at #bitcoin-otc on freenode

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:43am

fed the turd

Yeah, this is definitely worth $5 permonth. It is worth much more actually!!

thanks for all you do and for asking, and not just going away on us



ClinkinKY ¤
Apr 18, 2012 - 11:46am

@ IndigoStar7

TF mentions $5 and that blows my mind a bit because he's being super generous with that offer.


I assumed he meant $5 in pre-1965 dimes, quarters, halves or dollars. Still a bargain in my mind:)

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:47am

This is interesting

Dear Santa,

Liquidity is going to look for undervalued mining stocks. This is so ridiculous. In 30 years as showed by the chart this has never happened before. Why now with all the financial problems on the planet?


Regards, CIGA Luis Ahlborn Sequeira

Dear Luis,

It is simple. The hedge funds have made money continuously by their various products and shorts of gold With many gold funds and all gold index funds lending gold shares freely for pennies, the hedge funds can see no reason to stop.

There is no reason why one needs to violate the law by naked short selling when you can borrow them for next to nothing from just those entities supposedly friendly to gold.

It will end when the level of gold versus the gold held under 43-101 mineable in senior categories is so discounted that buying the companies is a no brainer for those companies with money and currency.

A chimp making the short gold trade keeps it up until pain is introduced into the equation. It is in some cases already. It will be in many cases soon.


Apr 18, 2012 - 11:52am


To anyone of you who just donated, will donate or who has been donating the whole time...Thanks!

Let's help TF grow this site for all of us Turdite's.

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:55am


Thanks for being such a vocal supporter of the site.

I think you should be the honorary bartender at the Turdapalooza!

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:55am

For all those who are hesitant to donate...

...through Pay Pal because of their stance on Second Amendment, I hope you find another way to contribute to a site that stands against such Draconian government intervention.

Something about "cutting off your nose, to spite your face".

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:57am



I don't' mind donating 5 a month, but you should consider having a yearly subscription at a discount maybe like 50 for a year.

Thanks for all you do.

Apr 18, 2012 - 11:59am

who is Chart Prophet and Yoni Jacobs

and what is his and their track record?

Were they in PM early in the bull market? or are they Yoni come latelies trying to make a name for themselves on an outlier projection.

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:02pm


I'll have everyone hammered in no time Only kidding!

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:10pm


"Simply put, paper price declines to the point where physical demand appears, which forces paper price back up. A sort of equilibrium and the primary reason why gold and silver have been mostly rangebound for the past month."

Sounds like price discovery to me... Is this not the way it should be?

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:11pm

I just fed the Turd $50, try

I just fed the Turd $50, try not to spend it all on booze.

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:13pm

I'll second that, IS7

I have been donating $10.00 a month for several months now and to be honest I have felt kinda cheap for paying so little. However, I am so glad TF broke it down the way he did that it would only take a few dollars from a lot of us to support the site in the manner it needs. I think sometimes people are reluctant to donate just a little because they feel 5 dollars wouldn't make a difference, so they just don't donate anything. But that's just not true. I realized this one day at church when I was thinking about giving and calculated how much would be needed from everyone for the bills to get paid. It was a very small amount of money!

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:14pm

I just had to look this up in

I just had to look this up in response to an email I rec'd this morning. If you can handle the gratuitous profanity, it sure is awfully funny:

Eddie Murphy - RAW - Marriage
Apr 18, 2012 - 12:16pm

Please understand

This is NOT a subscription. I am trying to avoid making TFMR a subscription-access site. It NEEDS to be free for all. Any monthly donation is simply that...a donation...which can be canceled at any time.

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:21pm

Oh, for Christ's (I mean "Chicago Jesus") sake. Insanity.

Obamabot Campaign Staffers In Awe After Chicago Jesus Sends Them a Sign Of His Divinity In The Form Of Obama Logo In Beer Foam…

It’s a miracle!

Via Washington Examiner:

Obama staffers marveled recently at what they saw as a “good omen” for the president’s re-election, in the foam of their half-empty pint of beer.

“A good omen for the next 208 days,” reads the caption of this photo posted on the campaign’s official Tumblr website.

It appears that they believe the foam formed a likeness of the Obama re-election campaign logo.

Eric Reif, Senior Advertising Manager at Obama for America, also posted the photo on his Tumblr.

“Witnessed this happen. It was magical,” Reif said.

Wallace Hartley
Apr 18, 2012 - 12:21pm

Silver Lease Rates

Anyone see the silver lease rates today? The 1-month is unchanged while the 3, 6, and 12-month have spiked 0.4+ each. They usually all move in another raid on the horizon; offering the banks the opportunity to make $ on the spreads? Is the chart I reference not working today? Anyone else seeing the same thing?

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:22pm


I did my doody,

and then I donated to Turd!

very similar

but not.

thanks Turd.

ChocoHotDog Fulgurite
Apr 18, 2012 - 12:25pm


Hi Turd, this was the point I was trying to make yesterday in my post, but perhaps it got lost in the usual clutter of "first," gun nut and YouTube music video posts...

I find these off topic posts frustrating too. Metals traders and investors need to focus on facts, there's already too much junk on the internet. This is what Turd does and this is what every commenter should be doing.

Turd, I'm still deep in debt but I'm sending $20 in fiat your way now. Spend it quickly lest it turn to rough toilet paper before your eyes. I view the site every day and have since you were beginning on blogspot, though I just began participating in the comments section, and your work cutting through the noise is invaluable.

Thanks, keep up the good work, and please don't price me out of your site in the future.


Apr 18, 2012 - 12:27pm
Apr 18, 2012 - 12:29pm

Jerry Lewis...

...would be very proud right now about the donations.

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:37pm

Fed the turd

I wish I could give more, but I'm just a young peon trying to earn my way to bigger and better things .

I would be lying if I didn't say TFMetalsReport wasn't a staple of my daily information gathering. Please remember that TF is bringing a community together that shares vast knowledge on various subjects. Thanks for what you do Turd. If you come to the site regularly and read all of this FREE INFORMATION and USE IT, the least you can do is help the person who is running the ship.


Apr 18, 2012 - 12:39pm

Sorry Turd

Sorry Turd......I want to donate..unfortunately i don't own a Credit card..neither do i intend to...only if you can introduce payments via Debit you said previously

Apr 18, 2012 - 12:40pm
Apr 18, 2012 - 12:42pm

If so inclined, you can also do this

Snail Mail

Shimshock Group
3616 Far West Blvd
Ste 117-367
Austin, TX 78731

All checks should be made payable to "Shimshock Group" and not TF Metals Report or Turd Ferguson.


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