Mornings With Andy

Tue, Apr 17, 2012 - 11:15am

As luck would have it, I had something I needed to run by our new pal Andrew Maguire this morning. Without looking at the time, I rang him up at about 9:45 EDT...15 minutes before the London PM fix. What fortuitous timing!

Today's raid commenced shortly thereafter. Andy and I are visiting and catching up when suddenly I hear him say "Whoa. Would you look at that!". I didn't even have my quote screen up so I had no idea what he was seeing. Gold had been sliding lower on relatively light volume into the fix when, suddenly, there was a dumping of 6,000 contracts. This caused a $7 drop in price inside of one minute. See chart below:

This prompted a very fun discussion after we watched this play out. First and foremost, the sheer lunacy of the method through which we currently "discover" the day-to-day price of gold.

So, we are supposed to believe that someone or something somewhere suddenly decided at 9:55 EDT to sell 600,000 ounces (almost 19 metric tonnes!) of their physical stash of gold. This is inconceivable! The dumping of 6,000 contracts is an entirely paper, manipulative event and yet it's allowed to happen and physical price is subject to this nonsense. Doesn't it just strike you as amazing that this is even possible? The world's oldest form of money can be devalued (in fiat terms) at the whim of a WOPR and a few keystrokes? Simply ridiculous.

Then, even more fun ensued as I got to explain to him the chart formations FUTF and FUBM. I wasn't sure how our rather unconventional way of charting the metals would go over with such a respected trader. He loved it! Said he thought it made perfect sense and agreed that, with the CoT survey pending this afternoon, we would most likely see FUBMs play out today. So far, so good! As I type, gold is now about $12 off its lows and silver has reversed about 30 cents. Let's hope this continues.

The charts would suggest that they will. In gold, today's low came in right at the 10:00 am EDT London PM fix time, near 1636. This is exactly where it should have stopped as you can see on the chart below. From here, let's see if we can continue the FUBM all the way back to at least the 1655 area, where we were before the 30-minute shenanigans began.

Silver was, of course, whacked alongside gold. The good news is that it, too, stopped right near solid support of $31-31.35 and has since rebounded. Our target for a full FUBM is $31.80. Let's see if we can get back there later this morning.

Anyway, I just want to thank you all again for giving me this opportunity. Two years ago, I simply sat here by myself, watching The Cartel's antics in disgust. Today, I sat here and watched while getting real-time play by play from Andrew Maguire. How crazy is that?!?! The surrealness continues...

More later. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 17, 2012 - 11:20am
Dr G
Apr 17, 2012 - 11:21am



A gentle repost of my final comment on the previous thread.

From the CNN front page story regarding oil and Obama:

"Many argue that investment money, especially index fund money, is largely to blame for the spike in oil prices seen over the last several years. They say the amount of oil traded in futures contracts greatly exceeds the amount of actual oil available, and that the bets on higher prices made by index funds are a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Wow, amount of paper traded greatly exceeds the amount of commodity available!? That sounds like, hmmm, GOLD and SILVER.

And O'Bummer wants stiffer penalties for market manipulation with energy futures. Sheesh.


Apr 17, 2012 - 11:22am



Manipulation rules . Markets up. Dollar down. Gold stalled . Silver hovering. Where is that rally in metals?

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:22am


So close, yet so far

Dr G
Apr 17, 2012 - 11:23am

There is your rally. Look,

There is your rally. Look, it's my favorite technical indicator. A "hand with a middle finger" shape at Blythe and the Fed. Yes, "hand with a middle finger" is a technical indicator for serious traders only.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:25am

The fricken' charts look like

The fricken' charts look like the needle of a lie detector.

"oh no you didnt!"

"oh yes i did!"


Apr 17, 2012 - 11:29am

King World News Site

Seems King World News site has been down a while?

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:32am

I feel for them

Apparently, this has become an ongoing battle.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:33am


At least in the top ten.

Gonzalo Lira has a disturbing post about some new legislation.


A bill that nobody is paying any attention to is sailing through Congress: Senate Bill 1813. It passed the Senate by 74 to 22, and is expected to sail through the House as well. It’s an act “[t]o reauthorize Federal-aid highway and highway safety construction programs, and for other purposes.”

It’s the “and for other purposes” part of the title that has me worried—specifically Section 40304: “Revocation or denial of passport in case of certain unpaid taxes.

This section would give the IRS the power to keep a U.S. citizen from traveling—

---end clip---

And now back to your regularly scheduled program, err, blog, err, whatever it's called.

[edit] Full fledged FUBM has occurred. Will it last? Who knows.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:34am

I'm not a short term guy

But amuses me to no end to see a jam job stuffed back down their throats. And I'm sure every time they turn one of these cute tricks, they bleed a little more physical from their inventory. Probably going to China.

Always low prices. Always?

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:34am


When asked to comment on the PM markets....

Submitted by ClinkinKY on April 17, 2012 - 11:30am.

...Obama stated "There's no manipulation there". (OK, I made that up)


Obama Springs Into Action Over Skyrocketing Gas Prices, To Announce Crackdown On “Oil Market Manipulation” … For The 4th Straight Year…

President Obama’s big initiative for the day is yet another pledge to crack down on nefarious energy traders who are driving up prices of oil and gasoline.

Today: “Under pressure to take action on rising gasoline prices, President Barack Obama wants Congress to strengthen federal supervision of oil markets, increase penalties for market manipulation and empower regulators to increase the amount of money energy traders are required to put behind their transactions. The White House plan, which Obama was to unveil Tuesday, is more likely to draw sharp election-year distinctions with Republicans than have an immediate effect on prices at the pump. The measures seek to boost spending for Wall Street enforcement at a time when congressional Republicans are seeking to limit the reach of federal financial regulations.”

Read more:

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:37am

Meant to include this

This guy, Brent, is a good dude and loyal Turdite. If you haven't watched this yet, you should. You should also forward the link to family and friends.

To start the 10-minute presentation, you simply have to enter a name. Real or not, it doesn't matter. I think it's just an extra step that allows them to track the actual number of views.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:37am

Dr G - re oil manipulation

responded on old thread - I really hope this misfires - and might explain Blythe's appearance to deny the same in silver.

I like the middle finger - I have a number of dinosaur patterns, and the stegosaurus head is almost always a good up signal. I wish I were kidding.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:38am

@Tabberto ... RE:- Guns are an anathema over here in UK

(From Last Thread) ...

That MAY be the view of many (perhaps/probably even the majority of) UK residents/citizens ... but it is NOT true for all, and I suspect that a fair proportion of those UK views are perhaps a result of Govt/MSM politically-biased "indoctrination" and lack-of-knowledge by the general population for BOTH sides of the argument.

I am fortunate in that I can straddle both sides of the argument as I grew up mostly in the UK, then spent circa 10 years living overseas in a firearms/weaponry rich environment, before returning to the UK in the mid-late 1980s ..... and the UK changed a LOT whilst I was away.

I am a firm believer in the Principles of both the 1689 English Bill of Rights and the later American Second Amendment (which was based upon the EBoR) for self-defense purposes ONLY against criminal/immoral attacks by individuals or overly-corrupted governments. ... You may find this article to be an interesting read :-


Recent(ish) UK political-actions over the last couple of decades has effectively emasculated the self-defense capabilities & protections of UK Legalis Homo (= the Lawfully & Morally Upright Citizen) and put the overwhelming firepower & weaponry squarely into the hands of either (A) Immoral Criminals who have NO qualms about misusing them against Legalis Homo AND (B) increasingly Armed & Sociopathic Corporate-Controlled (= ACPO & similar) police & quasi-police forces that is no longer taught (or Honour) the old-time "Public Service" ethics of their calling .... BOTH of which bode badly for the welfare of Legalis Homo in the event of any TEOTWAWKI or "Financial Crash" scenario.

... and by "firepower & weaponry", I do NOT just mean "black-powder guns", but include various (generally) non-lethal protections such as personal tazers/stunners/batons/beanbag-projectors/decent air-weapons/etc/etc.

I still manage to retain a GREAT deal of Respect for many INDIVIDUAL UK "Peace/Police Officers" as they often do a VERY difficult & potentially dangerous job & there are still MANY (at least at present) that seem to Individually TRY to "Honour their Calling" .... but I can NO LONGER TRUST OR RELY on any "Good or Honourable Intent" by the State & Other-PTB that control them as a collective-force.

... I personally consider myself to be a Quasi Legalis Homo (= a Mostly Lawful, yet Morally-Upright Human) ... But in the event of any unjust conflict between a particular "Government Law or Statute" and my own ethical principles, I would choose to follow my own ethics & moral-principles over any State-decree.

IF or WHEN the SHTF ... I would personally prefer NOT to be in the position of having to defend my family & I (and our possessions) against heavily armed Thugs & Criminals (Private OR Govt.) using nothing but things like catapults/bow-&-arrows/kitchen-knives/etc.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:39am

Why I buy PMs

Here is why some of us buy PMs.

The FRN is going down, this is what I believe 100%.

I just deleted 5 paragraphs on a rant as to why.

This article is better written and hits home the point, and there are many like it.

Anyhow if you believe the U.S. currency i.e. the Federal Reserve Note(FNR),

the stuff that is made by a privately owned bank, will, without a doubt, will crash.

What do you do?

You have to have some sort of a "Store Of Wealth" (SOW) got a new one for Mr. T :)

We have been told all our lives save "money" i.e. have a SOW. I took this to mean take 20 dollar bills and have the bank hold on to it for me and they would even give me more "money" for doing so.

I'm sure I'm not the only person that thought this was the correct thing to do.

But when inflation is going up 2% a year, as the Government is telling us ;) and I'm getting .25% from the bank, that tells me that I'm being taxed 1.75% for trying to saving that dollar. So is the FRN a good SOW?

So that 1oz silver coin or the 1oz gold coin took resources to make.

Think about how much work it took to make that 1 gold coin.

I hiked up the hill and paned for gold and was happy when in

6 hrs I took home 4grams, now it has to be melted, purified, and coined.

This is a store of wealth. No one can argue that fact unless you do not understand what a SOW is. Other SOWs are seeds, tools, farm land, live stock, timber I'm sure you get the idea. Sorry that was a short rant :)

We know that TPTB, the Federal Reserve is part of (TPTB), are controlling and manipulating PM pricing.

So what do you think will happen to the value of that 1oz silver or gold coin when others start to wake up, and see the FRN for what it is?

My thought is gold and silver will still hold its value, and more than likely will become overvalued. Side note, my grandfather told me that 20$ gold coin should always get you a finely made suet, now at that time there was about 4 billion soles on this big blue marble now it is 8 Billion so that same gold coin should get you 2 finely made suits. Now I'm not talking Borrelli suits in the 5 to 7k range, I'm talking about $1,300 IMHO. So I think gold is still undervalued. Just going on my guess at what a good suit should coast, I might add I don't own a "good suit"

When it becomes overvalued it's time to convert some of them to something that is undervalued.

My goal is to pay in full for my retirement home, and have some left to leave to my kids that the government can't tax the crap out of. If you are still trying to get rich quick through the paper game, good luck! I believe it is going to take Extremely GREAT luck, and a hide thicker than an alligator. I understand why some that come to this board get all pissed off when the numbers don't work exactly as predicted. I personally will not play a rigged game, and I will not try to rig a game.

For the experts like Mr. Ferguson and Co. paper is fun, I just do not have the knowledge nor the brass they do. when I get too frustrated I revert back to cave man days and want to bludgeon it to death and put it over a fire and see how it taste's.

I'm a one in the hand kind of guy, a simple stacker.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:39am

Just read this on KWN

From the bottom of The London Trader interview on KWN:

The bottom line here is the leverage by the bullion banks is extraordinarily massive, and players have to remember, eventually it has to get unwound. Jim Sinclair recently stated, ‘Overvaluation in the gold market will be something to behold.’ I can promise you, his statement will be proven correct.”

Basically, the cartel is blowing a gold/silver bubble by massively manipulating and suppressing price from rising to its proper value. Once all hell breaks loose, gold/silver go parabolic way passed the proper value until gold/silver is massively overvalued. At least that's how I'm reading Jim Sinclair and The London Trader's comments above.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:39am

Reposted from previous thread

That beatdown looks to me like it was to get a low number on the London p.m. fix so some big buyers could pick up phyz on the cheap.

Current statistics - as at Tue 17 Apr 2012

London Gold Fixing
AM 1652.00 1035.542 1255.510
PM 1635.50 1027.195 1247.902

Posted: 15:23 Tue

The rapid rise back to earlier levels supports this, imo, rather than the notion that India was an influence, a la Zero Hedge.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:42am

Obama's position on position limits

If he wants position limits on oil then it should apply to all commodities. Right?

Otherwise, it's being selective and allowing other 'huge' positions in other commodities to exist and be tolerated. Right?

I support the President on position limits in all commodities and not just a selective one for election purposes.


SpeakEasy, news, vids etc...

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:43am

@Mudsharkbytes (RE: SB 1813 - Passport revocation)

@Mudsharkbytes- I started a forum page on this issue several days ago when the LA Times published a story on this bill.

Go to the URL above and see what you think.

Lira is outside the USA.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:45am

If they're going to…

…"increase penalties for market manipulation" does that mean they will finally start fining all the bastards who've been manipulating the PM markets for years? Don't hold your breath. At the most they'll give 'em little slaps on the wrist token fines and warn 'em to not be so obvious, but most likely they'll say "what manipulation? we don't see any evidence of manipulation. We don't got to show you no stinking evidence of any manipulation!"

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:48am


Hey All-

At a major crossroads in my life. I have a BS degree and have been working as a personal trainer making squat. I have been accepted into a Sustainable business MBA program that is designed to save the environment etc, but it costs $50k in LOANS. I am also 2 years out on the waitlist for nursing school which costs relatively nothing.

I emailed Jim Sinclair this yesterday and he replied a short response, DONT GO INTO DEBT, dont go to school.

His answer was quite short but has left me leaning towards listening, my passion is lowering carbon emissions and saving the planet, but I dont always want to be in debt to the system etc

Do any of you have any input?


Apr 17, 2012 - 11:48am

I saw that finger

yesterday, and laughed my ass off, was it us or them?

but pretty amazing sometimes the shit in this world!

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:49am


If this proposal for oil position limits gains any traction (doubt it) then it would be a perfect opportunity (timing wise) to press for position limits on all commodities.

I hope someone with a name and the political stature takes the issue head on and sheds some light on commodities position limits and what entities have had them grandfathered to them for the Govt. essentially casting a blind eye selectively towards what commodities they are concerned about or not.

Ron Paul would be that guy if he choose to go after it.

C'mon Ron, make some noise!

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:51am

Jim Sinclair

It seems that Jim Sinclair's gold company TRX is doing well.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:54am
Apr 17, 2012 - 11:55am


My knee jerk response for long term and stable employment would be to get into a sought after and specialized nursing type of job.

With Govt. healthcare in some form a given and with an aging population who will require more Govt. subsidized care, it seems that the money and continued need for health services will increase.

Go where the money will be even if it seems less then exciting. Stable paychecks and demand area's of employment are where it's at imho.

There are many lucrative nursing jobs that won't require you to go into massive debt first to get into that type of occupation or area.

Good luck !

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:55am

First Majestic Discount

Silverdoctors is giving away First Majestic rounds all week, and looks like First Majestic is offerring .25 discount/ oz from their silver store w/ the promo code silverdoctors!

Time to win me some phyzz!

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:55am

@1shotAK (suit/gold ratio)


I've been trying to investigate the ratio of various common things to 1 ounce of gold or 1 ounce of silver.

The suit analogy has me interested because if gold seems to be converting to high number of units of suits/cars/homes, then the claim that gold is "overpriced" might have some validity.

When I looked at the # of ounces of gold to a 3bed/2bath home, the norm ratio in this area is about 200 ounces. It looks to me like in some areas, the ratio has become 50. But, these homes also depreciated, older, and need renovating. OTOH, the ratio is about right over time. The bubble in home prices caused the ratio to move up to like 400 ounces at one point about five years ago.

When I look at the ratio of suits to gold, one ounce of gold equals about $1650. There's a suit commercial on our local TV for a suit vendor which has been running a three suits for the price of one deal. Therefore, one ounce of gold equates to eight suits (my guess is that each suit is about $600).

TheFool 1ShotAK
Apr 17, 2012 - 11:57am

@1ShotAK -- Why I buy PMs

My thoughts exactly on the "overvaluation." And looks like many of the in-crowd folks hold the same beliefs.

"When I get too frustrated I revert back to cave man days and want to bludgeon it to death and put it over a fire and see how it tastes."

Too funny!

OrangeAlert ClinkinKY
Apr 17, 2012 - 11:57am

Oil Market Manipulation

@ClinkinKY's post. Anybody else read that as Obama's way to get in the market more to CAP prices? With a CAP in prices, comes shortages. :-(

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