Mornings With Andy

Tue, Apr 17, 2012 - 11:15am

As luck would have it, I had something I needed to run by our new pal Andrew Maguire this morning. Without looking at the time, I rang him up at about 9:45 EDT...15 minutes before the London PM fix. What fortuitous timing!

Today's raid commenced shortly thereafter. Andy and I are visiting and catching up when suddenly I hear him say "Whoa. Would you look at that!". I didn't even have my quote screen up so I had no idea what he was seeing. Gold had been sliding lower on relatively light volume into the fix when, suddenly, there was a dumping of 6,000 contracts. This caused a $7 drop in price inside of one minute. See chart below:

This prompted a very fun discussion after we watched this play out. First and foremost, the sheer lunacy of the method through which we currently "discover" the day-to-day price of gold.

So, we are supposed to believe that someone or something somewhere suddenly decided at 9:55 EDT to sell 600,000 ounces (almost 19 metric tonnes!) of their physical stash of gold. This is inconceivable! The dumping of 6,000 contracts is an entirely paper, manipulative event and yet it's allowed to happen and physical price is subject to this nonsense. Doesn't it just strike you as amazing that this is even possible? The world's oldest form of money can be devalued (in fiat terms) at the whim of a WOPR and a few keystrokes? Simply ridiculous.

Then, even more fun ensued as I got to explain to him the chart formations FUTF and FUBM. I wasn't sure how our rather unconventional way of charting the metals would go over with such a respected trader. He loved it! Said he thought it made perfect sense and agreed that, with the CoT survey pending this afternoon, we would most likely see FUBMs play out today. So far, so good! As I type, gold is now about $12 off its lows and silver has reversed about 30 cents. Let's hope this continues.

The charts would suggest that they will. In gold, today's low came in right at the 10:00 am EDT London PM fix time, near 1636. This is exactly where it should have stopped as you can see on the chart below. From here, let's see if we can continue the FUBM all the way back to at least the 1655 area, where we were before the 30-minute shenanigans began.

Silver was, of course, whacked alongside gold. The good news is that it, too, stopped right near solid support of $31-31.35 and has since rebounded. Our target for a full FUBM is $31.80. Let's see if we can get back there later this morning.

Anyway, I just want to thank you all again for giving me this opportunity. Two years ago, I simply sat here by myself, watching The Cartel's antics in disgust. Today, I sat here and watched while getting real-time play by play from Andrew Maguire. How crazy is that?!?! The surrealness continues...

More later. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 17, 2012 - 11:20am
Dr G
Apr 17, 2012 - 11:21am



A gentle repost of my final comment on the previous thread.

From the CNN front page story regarding oil and Obama:

"Many argue that investment money, especially index fund money, is largely to blame for the spike in oil prices seen over the last several years. They say the amount of oil traded in futures contracts greatly exceeds the amount of actual oil available, and that the bets on higher prices made by index funds are a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Wow, amount of paper traded greatly exceeds the amount of commodity available!? That sounds like, hmmm, GOLD and SILVER.

And O'Bummer wants stiffer penalties for market manipulation with energy futures. Sheesh.


Apr 17, 2012 - 11:22am



Manipulation rules . Markets up. Dollar down. Gold stalled . Silver hovering. Where is that rally in metals?

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:22am


So close, yet so far

Dr G
Apr 17, 2012 - 11:23am

There is your rally. Look,

There is your rally. Look, it's my favorite technical indicator. A "hand with a middle finger" shape at Blythe and the Fed. Yes, "hand with a middle finger" is a technical indicator for serious traders only.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:25am

The fricken' charts look like

The fricken' charts look like the needle of a lie detector.

"oh no you didnt!"

"oh yes i did!"


Apr 17, 2012 - 11:29am

King World News Site

Seems King World News site has been down a while?

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:32am

I feel for them

Apparently, this has become an ongoing battle.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:33am


At least in the top ten.

Gonzalo Lira has a disturbing post about some new legislation.


A bill that nobody is paying any attention to is sailing through Congress: Senate Bill 1813. It passed the Senate by 74 to 22, and is expected to sail through the House as well. It’s an act “[t]o reauthorize Federal-aid highway and highway safety construction programs, and for other purposes.”

It’s the “and for other purposes” part of the title that has me worried—specifically Section 40304: “Revocation or denial of passport in case of certain unpaid taxes.

This section would give the IRS the power to keep a U.S. citizen from traveling—

---end clip---

And now back to your regularly scheduled program, err, blog, err, whatever it's called.

[edit] Full fledged FUBM has occurred. Will it last? Who knows.

Apr 17, 2012 - 11:34am

I'm not a short term guy

But amuses me to no end to see a jam job stuffed back down their throats. And I'm sure every time they turn one of these cute tricks, they bleed a little more physical from their inventory. Probably going to China.

Always low prices. Always?

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