Too Surreal To Comprehend

Mon, Apr 16, 2012 - 11:34am

There are days when I sit back in wonderment at the position in which "Jimmy Stewart" finds himself. To go from regular dope to regular-dope-with-amazing-contacts is sometimes difficult to deal with in that it's so surreal. Anyway, there's just a lot of interesting stuff going on in the world, 99% of which is never discussed in the media, financial or otherwise.

So, I try to make sense of it all and then pass it along to you. The hard part is deciphering what is worthwhile and what is not. And I'm not just talking about the PM-positive, "pumper" information out there. I get a lot of anti-PM, you're-all-batshit-crazy stuff, too, which, frankly, sometimes has merit. As an example, I give you this:

Over the past year or so, I've gotten to know Jim Willie a little bit. I've never actually met him and we probably wouldn't even recognize each other if we passed on the street. That fact, however, doesn't mean that I can't make a conclusion regarding his validity as a PM opinion maker and editorialist. Therefore, though he's got few ideas that I don't necessarily agree with, I think he's one of the good guys who is doing his level best to inform and warn as many folks as possible about what lies ahead.

In his update of 4/12/12, Jim included some rather juicy information regarding the link between current paper price swings and behind-the-scenes physical delivery. Now, you can write this off as the lunatic ramblings of a madman if you'd like (someone in the previous thread called him "the National Enquirer of newsletters"), but I personally think that this information is valid. Jim has an extensive list of contacts within the global financial system and, from time to time, these folks pass this type of quality information to him. Should you choose to dismiss it and slander him instead, ask yourself first "what kind of contacts do I have?". If you, as a detractor, have no contacts within the international gold trader community, maybe you should be willing to openly consider that the information Jim provides is accurate, knowledgeable and helpful, not simply tabloid-level heresay.

Here are the first, two paragraphs of the piece, followed by a link to the rest:

"What an incredibly complex confusing and treacherous month. It can be safely said that 80% of the activity is almost totally kept from the public. The financial system is breaking in an accelerated fashion. Compare to some grisly horror movie where a man is strapped in a chair. The more he moves, the tighter the bindings pull on his gasping throat and pressed nether stones. The most significant two factors at work are the Iran sanctions and their powerful backfire, and the futile efforts in Europe to stem the banking center collapse. The anti-USDollar federation that spans widely across the globe is gathering strong momentum. Financial aggression is being met by financial alternative development. As Greece moved off the daily news fabrication factory, the reality of a collapse in Spain and Italy has moved to the front center of observations. Meanwhile, the American nitwits continue to argue over Quantitative Easing when it never stopped, and in fact, went global under their noses. The US news machine, dominated by the syndicate, churns out absurdities after more nonsensical bites on an economic recovery. The subprime loan machinery has ramped up. The retail factor does not tell of strength, but of weakness. Spending on consumption does not indicate strength, but a path to ruin still not well recognized. The gap between reality and reports is diverging.

Back at the gold desk, another cartel member kill is in progress. A string of UBS-type gold arena deaths is the biggest untold story of the new decade. The UBS rogue trader story was a total fabrication, written and staged to conceal the removal of all UBS gold from their reserves inventory. They are a dead gold player. The gold community, even LeMetropole Cafe and GATA, appears to be missing the coalition kills taken place in sequence with each paper gold ambush. If the cartel wishes to drive down the paper gold price, then they must deal with the consequences of having one more cartel member bank offered on the physical altar in a death sacrifice. They are vulnerable from sovereign bond positions and weak currency positions. In the margin call vise, they must forfeit their gold, but in a long slow process as truly enormous physical gold orders are being filled over a pyramid of prices lower than the cartel bank wishes. Details are scanty, but the trail can be followed to some extent by false stories to cover the damaging tracks. The press did a wretched job in checking the facts on the UBS rogue story. The loss was over $6 billion. The trades were all approved at VP level. The trap was laid and UBS entered with both feet, the consequence for which was being expelled from the gold arena, probably forever, in a total loss of its gold bullion. No wonder the press did not report the actual story. It would have been a monster bull story for gold. If Barclays or Royal Bank of Scotland or Bank of America were having their golden blood removed on a table, with straps in place for directors of their gold desks, and hot pokers applied by coalition forces to extract their gold, the outcome dictated by incredibly insolvency and margin call vulnerability, the effect on the gold market would be magnificent. Such events are in progress in my opinion, based on some juicy information feeds. Rather than divulge the entire details of the cartel kill, the coalition prefers to move to the next victim in the Wall Street & London cesspool of finance."

As you know, another guy with whom I'm now able to communicate directly is Uncle Ted. The statement below isn't anything earth-shattering but I've been meaning to re-print it. It's taken from his mid-week update last week and it simply speaks volumes about where we are currently in the silver charade.

"I realize that we are currently in a period of doldrums in the price and this has blunted investment demand, the silver price driver with the most kick. Prices are down sharply from the peaks of a year ago and there is a self-fulfilling nature in all investment assets where lower prices discourage new investment. More than ever, the short-term control of High Frequency Trading (HFT) is exerting greater daily pressure to the price as real volume dwindles. I’ve noticed a clear pattern where most days we start out under price pressure. This makes it easier to for the COMEX commercials to contain the price. No one can guarantee that the COMEX commercials can’t rig another sharp sell-off. It’s enough to sap the resolve of even the most ardent bull.

But I would remind you that these conditions have been a regular feature of the silver market over the past ten year (excepting the presence of HFT). While we have climbed sharply over the past ten years, that extraordinary price rise witnessed its share of sharp takedowns and prolonged periods of price stagnation. For example, the price high at $8 in 2004 wasn’t exceeded for almost two years, as was the price high of $15 in 2006 which wasn’t exceeded for almost as long. It took more than two years for silver to exceed the price highs of March 2008 of $21 (when JPMorgan took over Bear Stearns). Yet anyone who bought at the former highs and held on was rewarded, as will those who bought at last year’s highs. (Going back even further, the decade or more that silver traded between $4 and $5 was the biggest price doldrums of all; along with being a great time to accumulate). My point is that during the last three silver price doldrums, the gloom and negative talk was almost thick enough to cut with a knife, almost the same as now. Yet history shows us that the very best time to buy was during past price doldrums as was it also the very worst time to sell."

I reached out to our pal "Winston" over the weekend to get some thoughts from him, too. He sent me a lengthy email which I will try to summarize. He is quite confident that there are some very large, sovereign buyers underpinning the physical market in London. (Note that this jibes with Jim Willie's assertations.) These buyers halted the paper selling on a couple of occasions last week and they continued to do so all the way into this morning. Did anyone notice that gold rallied at 3:00 am EDT today instead of selling off? This was due to the same sovereigns buying into, and post, the AM London fix. Winston expects this to continue to provide a floor for paper price. The key level to watch going forward is 1680-1685 as, apparently, there are all kinds of buy-stops at that level. Any move through there will trigger a quick rally toward 1700+. Above 1700 and the WOPRs will flip to "BUY" again and we'll head back off to another test of the critical 1800 level.

Interestingly, Winston's analysis fits in quite well with my charts, too. (Makes me feel a little less dopey.) As you can see on the charts below, gold is still struggling to make a permanent turning point. It's close, however. There should continue to be strong paper price support between 1630-40 and this makes another attempt at 1680 a simple eventuality. Once 1680 is finally bested, 1705 should be the final hurdle before another run at 1800.

Silver, as you might imagine, has a similar picture. In the short term, it is still penned in a range between $31 and $33. However, very strong buying support continues to emerge between $31.00 and $31.25. The longer this support holds, the lower the trendlines "hurdles" get for the next rally. For now, all we can do is wait for a breakout through $33 before we can get really excited. Also, pay very close attention to the weekly chart below. We are nearing a resolution to the current pattern but it may still be 6-8 weeks away. Please try to remain patient. The next move in silver is going to catch a lot of people by surprise but not us.

Ok, I'm going to stop at this point because I've been in my office for about three hours now. I need a break and you need a new thread. More later today. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 16, 2012 - 11:37am


Still, how I covet first...

Apr 16, 2012 - 11:39am


Turd! Good to hear from you. I was getting worried. ;) I still think nothing really big will happen until after the election. The EE can't afford to have too many people wake up at the last minute and vote Ron Paul in...

Apr 16, 2012 - 11:41am
Apr 16, 2012 - 11:49am

Don't forget about the upcoming FOMC mtg...

Next week, Wed April 25th - sure to be a major market mover. The question is, do they stoke QE hopes causing PMs to rise or do they quash any hopes for another round of OVERT QE and send the markets into a tailspin?

Not that it really matters - whatever the reaction on Wed, they'll just trot out dissenting views following the meeting to try and "correct" the markets. Sad.

Apr 16, 2012 - 11:50am

Lindsey Williams

Anyone here follow Lindsey Williams at all? His latest bit of info from his big oil, elitist insider says that a global economic collapse is coming. Not this month, next, or the one after, but anything from July on is possible. He also says that the "dollar will by dead by the end of 2012." Not that the dollar will be non-existent, but rather it will be worthless going forward. The only way to preserve your wealth is to hold gold and silver. I know, I know... more "hearsay" from a "nobody" with some powerful, high-level contacts. Don't pay any attention, just move along. I'm sure I'll be chastised for believing anything Lindsey Williams says. He did call the oil spikes and drops a couple years back, and also called the arab spring uprisings.

Apr 16, 2012 - 11:51am

Anyone who questions

Anyone who questions Jim Willie can just go back to his older articles, and they will see that he was spot on 90% of the time. I read them in the past, and he was making great calls, check them out.

Apr 16, 2012 - 11:53am

Did you feel 4th gear kick in?

Anyone else noticed the following?

Not exactly a large sample group but based on this and my back-of-cigarette-packet calculation - I can confidently assert the last bottom was it for this phase and we've begun a run to $5300 in 3.5 years, you heard it hear first folks, giddy up!

(Actually, got a feeling we'll still see a stab down before take off, plus will be disappointed if it takes this long to get there - though I guess this thoroughly-sound-and-accurate prediction doesn't preclude overshooting during this time and ending back down at 5k!)

Move over Ivars, there be a new guy in town ;^)

Apr 16, 2012 - 11:56am

I am loving the volatility!...

It's a trader's paradise!...2 buy & 2 sell tranches(pivot points)...I am making a ton of money trading Metals Creek on the 1/2 penny & 1 penny spreads!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Apr 16, 2012 - 12:00pm

Thanks BOG

Little tips like this can be quite valuable!

Apr 16, 2012 - 12:02pm

Big Buffalo

I'm no gun expert so, what kind of rifle is that? Looks like it's styled after the old British Enfield. What's the mag capacity?


Big Buffalo silverstax
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:04pm

FOMC meeting

this method has kept me from freaking out around the FOMC meetings and Ben speaking. . .

buy some now (in case all you hear is QE3) , and save some fiat for later (in case you they verbally squash QE3). Either way you win.

BagOfGold Doctor J
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:09pm

Dr Jerome...

On one 50,000 shares Metals Creek at 7 1/2 cents...& sell 50,000 at 8 cents...or if you are more brave...sell at 8 1/2 cents!...Only 49,000 shares sold today at 8 1/2 it's your call!...If gold goes over 1657 today...Metals Creek may go to 9 cents or higher!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Exbroker TF
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:09pm

Jim Willy

I have known Jim since 1999. He is brilliant. He saw this coming and left our once great country. Kinda, like Pappa wants to do I really think we have to take our Gov't into our own hands. We need to tell the bankers to frig off. If we don't have the balls to tell them that...all is lost. Queastion. Why was Iceland allowed to do it?

What made them so special?

Apr 16, 2012 - 12:10pm

Big Buffalo

You will love that gun, I ordered one about a year ago and love it. They have a club here that shots with open sights to 1000 yards. That thing is a bear to clean when you first get it. I put it in the sun to get real hot to let all the stuff they pack it in leak out. But you will love it.

These markets and the dollar are not going to collapse anytime soon. The Gov. has models they use and they know what to do and when to do it. It will take time for the "Mad Max" days to come into play. But when they do - SILVER and GOLD is to maintain wealth, DO NOT barter with them - you will become marked as having this and hunted down.

Silver will go up to $33.25 - $33.50 within a week and then will go back down to about $30.00, this is the pattern they are keeping it in.

Have a great day everybody......

ivars koan
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:10pm

@99th monkey 4th gear

You are absolutely right-the gold bubble formation includes at first exponential, then superexponential growth-i.e growth speed increases. But that last stage will come after those 3,5 years.

BTW, there is no smoke without a fire: My chart on gold also gets to 55oo in 3,5 years. Now it has been independently verified!

Apr 16, 2012 - 12:11pm


Thanks for the need thread TF.

Something is going on in China and has been for the past several months from the little bit (actually quite a bit) of news I come across and what they're alluding to. A power struggle between old and new political cultures and the burgeoning democratizing of China to the extent it can happen there is under way.

This is a huge wildcard and it could get ugly in some way I can't yet foresee at this point but it could greatly hasten or postpone many of the things we believe might come about in the financial markets or political landscape from China's increased influence or possibly it's stagnation. If we see any indication that China's military gets active domestically then we might be in for a serious sideshow. Russia's metamorphosis wasn't pretty and China's won't be any different. Ours (U.S) is still to be determined.

It depends on what side wins the struggle in China. And there is a power struggle going on.

Big Buffalo Harald
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:12pm

Harald - It's a Mosin Nagant

Basic history: Millions upon millions were manufactured by the Russians for WWII, and tons were never used..thus the very cheap price. It uses 7.62x54r ammo. If you like guns...this is a must have. All you have to do is trade in about 3.3 silver eagles.

Mosin Nagant
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:14pm

Big Buffalo

I'm full of questions today. Is the 20 French franc coin the rooster? I recently picked up four of the Swiss 20 franc coins at my LCS. Gorgeous money there. I've been waiting for a rooster or two to show up at the LCS cause that's the only place I buy. Also, recently bought a Mexican 20 peso which has the Mayan calendar on the obverse. Veinte Pesos. Total knockout.


Apr 16, 2012 - 12:16pm

Big Buffalo

Double post.

Heart's Yours
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:18pm

Big Buffalo - Is gun link correct?

I could not get the website to work. Did you mean Thanks in advance.

Big Buffalo
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:20pm

Harald: Rooster

Yes, it is a Rooster. There are so many different gold coins out there, my thought is to only buy one of each. The exception is the Rooster, these I'll just buy whenever. I have a personal thing with roosters in my life. (take it easy on the jokes please)

Apr 16, 2012 - 12:22pm

Agreed zman!

Willie has quite the impressive track record if you fairly score. Intervention has been much more successful than anyone knew. IMO. Also IMO....... The fruit appears ripe for the picking by the Bernank and crew! Been watching this for sometime now. The APPLE move went parabolic..... I Noticed the LARGE ownership by nearly every fund that can own. With those weightings, and the low inflows of retail monies, I would think some outflows/profit taking will start a ball rolling that will REQUIRE the attention of the Bernank. It appears to be a KEY domino in the markets rise. Once again, IMO, this is an important chart to watch as well. You must ask yourself.......without the prop under apple.....what next will take the lead?

Big Buffalo Heart's Yours
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:22pm
Big Buffalo
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:26pm

Repost: Gold and Gun

Sorry for the repost, but I'm just so darn excited, like almost as excited as Tebow..

All this talk and pictures of Gold Coins....

.. i just logged on to Lear Capital and bought some...all about the free shipping...code 51CF9 (if you're interested)

Item Name Qty Current Price SubTotal
American Eagle 1.0000 oz. (Silver) 2 $ 34.53 $ 69.06
Swiss 20 Franc .1867 oz. (Gold) 1 $ 338.50 $ 338.50
Austrian 4 Ducat .4430 oz. (Gold) 1 $ 783.25 $ 783.25
French 20 Franc .1867 oz. (Gold) 1 $ 338.50 $ 338.50
Subtotal $ 1,529.31
Total Metal shipping,
handling, and insurance fee
$ .00
Grand Total $ 1,529.31


I probably jumped the gun a little by $20 or so, possibly even $50. It's probably not the cheapest either but pretty darn close. It really shouldn't matter much 5-10 years from now, and in the mean time I feel a bit safer financially.

Just ordered one of these too....this makes me feel a little safer physically. Btw - these are so much fun to shoot and they cost next to nothing ( has them for $109.00 and the surplus ammo is around $0.16 per bullet. You'll have a huge smile on your face after the first trigger pull. This is the Russian version, I'll be ordering the Chinese version soon. (Mosin Nagant)

Apr 16, 2012 - 12:26pm

EE selling versus large sovereign buying?

"I reached out to our pal "Winston" over the weekend to get some thoughts from him, too. He sent me a lengthy email which I will try to summarize. He is quite confident that there are some very large, sovereign buyers underpinning the physical market in London. (Note that this jibes with Jim Willie's assertations.) These buyers halted the paper selling on a couple of occasions last week and they continued to do so all the way into this morning."

Turd, please explain this to me:

If the EE routinely dumps paper PM's (something which of course no real/normal seller would ever do in such a enormous fashion because they would drive down the price too much too rapidly and would thus give them the least amount of cash in return for sold PM's) why wouldn't those large sovereign buyers do the opposite?

Why should a large sovereign buy at, say $1630,- when instead they could wait for a much larger drop and thus acquire much more physical PM's, especially if they are, after MF Global, more or less the only ones that are "underpinning the physical market?"

Why would the large sovereigns support a market, when instead they could let it crash and thus acquire much more physical?

In the end, the paper price doesn't matter, what matters is the amount of physical PM's one holds, right?

Chris P. Bacon
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:28pm


It's a Mosin Nagant, as noted by the poster. Fires a 7.62 x 54mm rimmed cartridge roughly equivalent to .308 Winchester or 7.62 x 51 NATO. 5 round magazine fed with stripper clips. Amazingly accurate, cheap and fun to shoot. Curio and Collectable eligible firearm.

Hope that helps. Learn more HERE


Edit: Also available HERE along with sealed tins of ammo.

Haole Guy Big Buffalo
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:28pm

@ Big Buffalo

Buy the Chinese Sks not the Mosen. That is what you want short of the AK

Apr 16, 2012 - 12:28pm

Cult-like followers? OK, we can have fun with that...

Submit, oh non-believers, to the power that is Turd Prognostication:

Join us in daily worship services and chart updates:

Observe the rapture as we don our "Short-Covering Robes" after a rise in the metals, and band together to sing the holy songs:

Observe the power of the worldwide scope of our reach (TFMetals is one of the highest-trafficked internet sites in Nepal, for example):

And know that we really don't care when our leader spends the "proceeds" from the site in the great investment capital of Las Vegas:

In closing, I would like to quote from the holy scripture of the prophet Afrum, and ask all believers to read along with the sacred words:

" With every blithers orchestrated raid, the Jpig morgue crowd is only buying boarding tickets to the Titanic!! Empty bullion banksters know it and all the public soon to know this self evident truth!! It is ending! NO doubt! Sunrise white hot bright shining shimmering molten physical silver exposing naked shorts with no clothes, sweeping the paper ship of fools! Leaping in droves, from the burning inferno paper titanic, consuming every last one of them! Gettin vaporizing blazing white hot aboard the ship of bankster fraudster paper fools! Ashes! Ashes! Fools all fall down!!"

So sayeth the word. Can we order the matching pajamas now? ;-)

Apr 16, 2012 - 12:33pm

Sovereign Buys

Good question above, why would sovereigns support the mkt. at these levels?

I think it's twofold. First, there are sovereigns like China, Russia, and other that are simply buying to bring their FX ratio of gold up to par. They will buy no matter what. Then there's the stinky of the bullion banks.

The sovereigns that "lent" their gold to the bullion banks also need it back to bring their FX reserves into balance. Problem here is that the bullion banks sold it all so they could play with paper. So what's a sovereign to do? Why buy as quietly in the mkt. as they can and hope the bullion banks can get the gold back as quietly as they can at the same time. But the BB's are trapped without gold and a rising price trend.

Enter Joe public and the manipulation games. And then there's us stackers they have to deal with.

I figure this is where the support is coming from.

Big Buffalo Haole Guy
Apr 16, 2012 - 12:36pm

Dang It Haole Guy (Chinese Sks)

....just when i thought i was good to go, you show me this thing. . .now i've got to do some research and check this thing out. One of the things I liked about the Chinese Mosin and Russian Mosin. . .is..they use the same ammo. And it's kinda cool to have different types of Mosins, like different types of gold coins.


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