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Wed, Apr 11, 2012 - 3:15pm

After all of the recent volatility, don't days like today just seem like a downer? I suppose we should be grateful for the respite...but...flat, rangebound days always tend to put me to sleep.

I wish I had some exciting chart news for you but I don't. From every angle, the metals appear to be finishing up the "right shoulder" of the current, 7-month, massive reverse head-and-shoulder bottom. The biggest drag of this is the timing. Take a look at the daily charts below and you can easily see that this final process could take weeks to complete. We could be well into May before the metals finally break higher and confirm the bottom. Until then, I guess we just have to be patient.

Though gold put in a nice day yesterday, it saw very little follow-through today. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that gold is back above $1650. However, until gold breaks back above the short-term downtrend line on the hourly chart, there's no reason to get excited. Furthermore, until gold closes back above its 200-day moving average, the spec buying will not be sufficient to drive gold consistently higher. Again, for now, we yawn and wait.


Silver is nothing to write home about, either. In fact, it actually looks worse than gold, in the very short term. Though 31.00-31.50 will continue to provide support for silver, the failing momentum in the hourly chart paints a picture of further weakness. Since a drop to $30 or so would paint a nearly perfect, symmetrical reverse H&S on the silver chart, we might as well root for one. At this point, given the ugliness of the hourly chart, I'd say the chances that support holds here are no greater than 50/50. That said, IF silver does drop to the area around $30, you be crazy not to do some buying.


Just a few news items before I return to my afternoon nap. First up, this new report from ZH on the worsening fiscal situation in the U.S. No more QE? Rrrrrright.....


You may have already seen this but Mike Maloney of GoldSilver was on RT a few days ago and spent a half hour discussing metals manipulation with this hot, leggy chick. (I wonder if she's one of Putin's girlfriends?) Regardless, there's some interesting stuff here, particularly the part about South Carolina.


Finally, our pal Jeff Nielson wrote something interesting yesterday. Post-MFG, anyone foolish enough to hold "allocated" metal within their U.S.-based brokerage account is probably too stupid to read and understand this piece but I'll link it here anyway, just for kicks.


That's all for now. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


bellyacre · Apr 11, 2012 - 3:16pm


recaptureamerica · Apr 11, 2012 - 3:17pm


bono · Apr 11, 2012 - 3:18pm


miss it, mierda!

iceman321_2k2 · Apr 11, 2012 - 3:19pm

"Outside of the United States, countries take their gold business very seriously. Earlier this week, a 30 year old Chinese woman was given the death sentence by a court in Wenzhou. According to Xinhua news agency, Wang Caiping cheated investors out of 100.11 million yuan, losing 94 million yuan in futures and gold trading."

"While well-known American investors such as Warren Buffett view gold as a “lifeless” asset, countries such as India view the precious metal as a way of life. Indian retailers went on a 20 day strike due to the government declaring in March that it would double import taxes on gold and place excise taxes on most gold jewelry."


¤ · Apr 11, 2012 - 3:45pm

I think if they (CB's) were smart and truly ingenious/insidious they would want an eventual 1:1 ratio (at least) DGR so they could have a perpetual sliding gold price and not some fixed standard or price. More of a golden rule and not a fixed standard.

They've been jacking up the equities markets or alternatively taking the foot off the pedal the past few years, so why not use that same low volume/ramped up market to establish a gold price that is affixed to the S&P 500 that keeps investor interest and investment in that dual market robust and consistent? I see no end to the CB involvement in keeping the markets afloat through bond purchases with regurgitated interest earnings on the previous QE inspired bond purchases that allows this in the first place. Sterilized QE anyone?

It would make sense to inflate the price of gold and tie it to something people are familiar with and not some arbitrary Treasury/Fed. decree. People would probably trust the markets a bit more if they felt it also strengthened their monetary unit that would be tied to gold at the time the Fed./Treasury makes the transition. Ideally, a 2:1 Gold/SP ratio would exist as it would insure that gold stays at a very high price compared to whatever bear/bull cycle exists at any given time.

The market can never go to 'zero' unless something catastrophic happens and if it did we would have more to worry about then the markets. But if gold were allowed or mandated to be at a sliding ratio of 2:1 then it would keep gold inflated and the jacking of the markets to continue and even be encouraged to some degree. What politician, banker or citizen doesn't want the market up and doing well? Anyone here have a problem with gold at $20,000 and the market at 10,000 or much higher? 

The beneficiary of all this would be the CB's who have a pile of gold that would instantly become more valuable and they would be able to (like now) use all the QE, LTRO, Swaps etc in the same manner and not only increase asset valuations via the market but gold also so that the higher the markets go (and gold) the more liquidity and newly created capital they could realize from gold skyrocketing with the market.

All existing debts would seem small in comparison to now and they could actually inflate their way out of their debt (where have I heard that before?) if they only allowed gold to increase in value in unison with the markets. The debt gets smaller as they have much more liquidity that they actually control the value of by keeping the markets aloft just like they are now.

Ideally, all the worlds market would be consolidated at some point and it would be more of a Global Gold/S&P 1000 2:1 ratio. If not, a separate US market works just as well and probably would be more self serving and beneficial to the US. 

All of this could be done if the Fed and/or other CB's and the IMF mandate it in a landmark agreement like they always seem to do. It would work and it would create interest in gold and the market like has never been seen before in the history of mankind. The old debt gets smaller and the new liquidity from gold, and gold itself, becomes the newly created (allowed) fountain of liquidity that provides room for growth and the payment or write down of old debts.

All they have to do is mandate it. That's what I would do if I were them and watch the markets and gold take off and see my balance sheet explode on the asset side of the ledger.

And all this talk of silver not being any real source of monetary value because of golds almighty grip on all things shiny and valuable? I think China is going to have a serious say in the matter when all is said and done. China used silver for centuries up until this century. What if China pegs the yuans increase in value (US wants a stronger yuan) to gold and silver and they set a silver price at $500 or whatever to back their currency? I don't think the world will ignore China considering they supposedly have the majority of minable silver (95%?) on their territories. Overnight, silver would instantly be a monetary asset as well as an industrial metal which would only make it more valuable.

I believe anything is possible going forward and a bunch of mandates, decree's and international agreements are going to happen within 5 years because they'll need to happen. 

Dr G · Apr 11, 2012 - 3:48pm

I'm dying for a perfectly even reverse H&S pattern. Therefore, I'm rooting for below $30 :)

Given how slow things are (even the manipulation is slow?), I'm dying to know what the TITS is at these days.

NCdirtdigger · Apr 11, 2012 - 3:49pm

My wife and I enjoyed a Celebrity canned ham for Easter. Thanks Eric!

garrylindsay · Apr 11, 2012 - 3:54pm

So does holding PSLV via a US Fidelity account mean I will get the same treatment as MFG when/if Fidelity goes bankrupt?

Dr G · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:02pm

Speaking of hams, my local CVS and Walgreens both had ONE brand in stock (is that normal?). Wasn't Celebrity brand for either (forgot the names though). I did note that the CVS one was $4.99 for one and the Walgreens was $4.55 for one. Aren't those prices much higher than we were seeing last year?

EO, please analyze for me! :)

John G. · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:03pm

Turd, the woman interviewing Maloney is Lauren Lyster, a graduate of Northwestern University. So, she actually has some brains, and can ask good questions because she worked as an investment banking analyst.


kingboo · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:03pm


Louie NCdirtdigger · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:05pm

Ever wonder how it became an American Christian tradition to eat ham on Easter?

¤ · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:12pm

...who is very cautious around Easter.

kingboo · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:16pm

and i furickin love it!!!!!

¤ · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:23pm


Air Garcia · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:24pm

Max Keiser is going to unite the Silver Liberation Army in NYC on April 12 - which is tomorrow - to krush JPM and take silver to $500.00. 

Keiser Report: Return of the Silver Liberation Army (E273)

I don't know how to embed, so go click the link, bitchez. 

Jerry Garcia

Air Garcia · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:25pm

i guess i did know how to embed. gud wurk turdtecs


Airgead · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:29pm

You have unknown skills! smiley

· Apr 11, 2012 - 4:33pm

I bought around 15 cans of Celebrity (can't remember now if it was 1 pound or half kilo) @ $2.50 each last year at Walgreens. It was on sale, true, but the regular price was $3.99. Even from that, the current price is 10%+ higher.

Mantis · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:46pm

Price fixing never works. If they tried to tie gold to the Dow market forces would tear it apart in time. Just as they cannot suppress the prices forever just now, once a run for physical occurs the manipulating bullion and central banks are screwed.

Swift Boat Vet Louie · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:51pm

In the Greek tradition, lamb is always served for Easter dinner. Reasoning? Jesus was/is the "Lamb of God". A very apropos dinner for a Christian Holiday such as Easter. BTW, I am 1/2 Greek. The other 1/2 is German and the reason we have such a close understanding of the Weimar inflation, as my grandfather and father lived it before coming to the USA. Now you KNOW where my deep interest in the PMs comes from.


recaptureamerica · Apr 11, 2012 - 4:56pm

Just sayin'

Maradona · Apr 11, 2012 - 5:08pm

Hi Turd, I found this guy accusing you to trying to sell us gold and silver or something else:

"...Same story.....different players..... Anyone notice that Andrew Maguire is now offering a "trading service" --- SUBSCRIPTION Based .. With Turd Ferguson? How convenient!! Come on.... When are people going to realize they are getting played. Each and every person on the conspiracy side has something to sell you!..." https://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2012/04/lets-continue-to-watch-gold-silver.html

Also, this guy constantly banish gold and silver, focusing on metals weakness and saying that there is no manipulation (in a world where everything is ). It surprise me is that some folks who used to write here also comment on this other blog trowing shit to Turd too!! 

Dr. Durden wrote: "I watched Turd's update video from last week about how he had this exciting new opportunity come his way. Now I it's Andrew Maguire. And now I know why I haven't bothered to read his blog in 4-5 months. Way to take the path into the abyss. Here I thought the guy was truly onto something..."

​Isn't that "Dr. Durden" a turdite?, geez, with that kind of loyalty who need enemies. Same thing with "Shill", the same one that used to banish Ivars charts here now banish Turd over there. 

Anyways, I wanted to let you all know the kind of people who come to this place, comment a lot, bullish on metals and when things don't work on their favor they go some other places taking shit about previous blogs. 

Marc Grail · Apr 11, 2012 - 5:11pm

Just wondering if all I need to do is click on the ads in order for the Turd to get some fiat from them? If so, do I have to wait for the page to completely load? I'm currently making a regular practice of clicking on everything I see that looks like an ad. Can someone confirm that this is actually helping?

solidpractice · Apr 11, 2012 - 5:11pm

Be Prepared · Apr 11, 2012 - 5:12pm

An interesting chart..... platinum is starting to show some weakness.

silverstax · Apr 11, 2012 - 5:12pm

Just checked it Dr. G and it's still screaming BUY BUY BUY!!!

Moderator Jane · Apr 11, 2012 - 5:25pm

Maradona wrote: "Anyways, I wanted to let you all know the kind of people who come to this place, comment a lot, bullish on metals and when things don't work on their favor they go some other places taking shit about previous blogs."

Yep, and these same guys will bat their eyelashes at the moderators and go: "Me? You think sweet, innocent little me was doing something bad on the site?? But I'm Turd's Biggest Supporter!"

One of them is still begging to come back on the board for whatever dumb reason, even though he spent most of his time here bashing Turd, the mods, and anyone he didn't like to anyone who would listen to him via PM.

PS Just to be fair, we should not assume with 100% certainty that someone with the same username at another metals website is the same person. It probably is, but it's not certain it is. 

SRSrocco · Apr 11, 2012 - 5:26pm

This is a repeat blog entry from the last blog... (for more coverage)


I have been reading some blog entries by some of the bloggers stating that gold is superior over silver. They go on to state that gold is real money and silver is only a lousy industrial metal. I am not going to get into a long discussion here, but if I may state a few points:

1) 40 Years of Fiat Money Amnesia is not an excuse

2) Why did the state of Utah pass both GOLD & SILVER as a form of LEGAL TENDER last year? If gold was superior why did they add that lousy industrial metal called silver?

3) Official Government Mints are producing GOLD & SILVER Coins of the following:

A) U.S. Eagles

B) Canadian Maples

C) Austrian Philharmonics

D) Australian Kangaroo & Kookaburra

E) Chinese Pandas

4) None of these coins are minted in COPPER, ZINC or LEAD

5) How many Investment Copper ETF's do you find compared to GOLD & SILVER?

6) Lastly, look at this chart again below... DOES SILVER not MIRROR GOLD???

I believe all forms of debate are necessary for allowing good discussion of all points. But we have to start to wake up and smell the PRINTING PRESS INK and realize that 2,000 years of history doesn't just DRY UP AND BLOW away in 40 years because TECHNOCRATS think fiat money or a cashless society will be the wave of the future.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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