Turd Traveling - Open Thread

140
Mon, Apr 9, 2012 - 8:13am

I am traveling today after spending the Easter weekend away with MrsF and the LTs.

I hope that by later today I will be able to post a review of the day's events as well as some updated charts. For now, this is simply an open thread. The only discussion item I have is this new post from Gonzalo Lira. Where Gonzalo excels is in forward thinking. In this piece, he alerts readers that Spain will be the next "eurozone crisis" and gets you wondering about just how this will all play out.

https://gonzalolira.blogspot.fr/2012/04/spain-will-exit-eurozone-firstthis-year.html

And I just found this interview of Uncle Ted. Please take the time to read it today.

https://moneymorning.com/2012/04/06/the-who-how-and-why-behind-silver-price-manipulation/

That's all for now as we are packing things up and I can hear MrsF hollaring for me from the next room. I'd better get moving...if I know what's good for me.

More later. Have a great day. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  140 Comments

Be Prepared
Apr 9, 2012 - 7:29pm

The Nucleus of Community is Family...

It is never more true than today and tomorrow that the investment you make in yourself and your family to be strong and cohesive is one of the greatest "Stackable" things you can do, but it is hard work.... If you take the easy path on this, you will have no one to blame except yourself. We are being forced to live in two (2) worlds.... the world of today where jobs and wages are critical, but the world of tomorrow may require a more flexibile approach to living successfully. The paradigm of money as both the means of exchange and as a store of value is collapsing.... that's why we are all here.

Doesn't that mean you must allow this knowledge to cascade into every aspect of your thinking and how you live your life... including how you raise your children?? You can't have it both ways and I think we are struggling with that... because we don't want to impair our children to be successfully today if the tomorrow we think is coming is delayed by 20 years. This knowledge and approach won't impair them, though, because they will have a world and life view that will make them stronger then most.... more independent... and with an ability to think on their feet. The world that is coming won't coddle them and, if you don't want them to be slaves, you must not hide the truth from them in a way that is age appropriate. Your leadership and willingness to learn, and include them, will be the best example. Living what you preach... and being a beacon of change with your family is the best solution in my opinion.

I know that you all are going to do very well with this question.... let's keep talking about how to implement and help each other put these words into actionable ideas... :-)

Addition: College doesn't have to be out as a choice, but I would also include a requirement for a minor in a very tradable skill.

Stratajema
Apr 9, 2012 - 7:44pm

There has to be capitulation

... in gold and silver and it hasn't occurred at today's price points. I believe the bottom support line in the price of gold will be violated for the first time in 3 years. I have built liquidity ($100K+) and am waiting for the slaughter. That means my opinion is directly contradictory to every "famous" pundit on KWN news, every chartist, and maybe even Turd.

Traders (including their algo driven computers) are being cleverly "conditioned" by the manipulative smack downs. The MSM seems to think that QE 3 is needed for gold to rise which is ludicrous. Did we need QE to rise from $400 to $1,000 in gold? All we needed was a war economy with the related increasing deficits funded by debt, along with negative real interest rates. Until the short-term paper traders get QE out of their brains or there is a shortage of physical gold, then gold will trade weakly during this election year. I believe the top is already in for the gold price for 2012. The China "put" will provide support for the gold price below $1,500.

reefman
Apr 9, 2012 - 7:51pm

Teach your children economics

Teach your children economics - Austrian economics in the vein of Ludwig von Mises and also how to invest.

To those who were alive and adults in the early 1970's, don't you know that you could have invested $35 and turned that into more than $200,000 today? It's too late now, but it isn't too late to teach our kids how the economy REALLY works and why.

Simplicity: Part 1

Simplicity: Part 1

Simplicity: Part 2

Simplicity: Part 2
NW VIEW
Apr 9, 2012 - 7:52pm

COLLEGE & CALIFORNIA LAWYER

In previous posts you talked about buying a large vegetable farm outside the urban area. These types of farms take full time management and we all know that food will be a huge issue by the time your kids are young adults.

When we were in high school, the girls had to take home education (cooking,sewing, etc.) and the guys FFA or wood shop. These skills will be coming back in the near future.

When my daughter finished high school, she wanted to go to college. So I said,"I will pay for your entire education if you follow one rule, the major that you take must produce a job in that field of study and not the many degrees being pushed by the colleges". She decided she would get a degree in archeology and I said "when you go to do a dig, you pay them, they do not pay you, find another major". She spent two years trying to find a major see liked and finally dropped out and married. My son finished high school and I asked him what he wanted to do, and I gave him the same talk. He said "I am tired of school, lets make some money." I brought him into our home construction business and the next year at the age of 19 he was building his first primary residence and never looked back again. His net worth has passed mine a few years ago and he earned it through much labor. Most college degrees (if any) would have never produced his earning power.

What will all these millions of graduating students do with their MBA's, AS's and everything else in a changing world? One has to look to the future and where things are going for our educational needs or we will be like my Polish relatives in WW2 who were using WW1 military arms and trying to stop the rush of Hitler's tanks.

Better is a person who can hoe a garden and can some peaches than he who has a degree in the arts during the coming tribulation. jmo

GenXer
Apr 9, 2012 - 8:04pm

More on college

Sending kids to college has became a nationwide obsession starting with the WWII generation wanting their kids (baby boomers) to have a better life, and continuing to this day. Initially this lead to higher salaries and better jobs for college graduates - as they were in demand in the economy.

But things move in cycles, they always have. I posted the above article to illustrate that college graduates are now over supplied to the point that some PhD's are janitors!

The oversupply of college-educated workers is especially striking when you contrast it with the growing shortage of skilled manufacturing workers. Today's younger generations tend to regard craft work - plumbing, masonry and carpentry etc as unfashionable and dead end.

Surveys show 80% of manufacturers expect a shortage of skilled production workers in the coming years. Over 10,000 baby boomers will be retiring every day in the US - this trend will continue for almost 20 years. A lot of skilled production workers will be amongst these, and the next generations have not filled the void. People need to realize that a pipe fitter makes three times as much as a social worker.

Also consider farming. Agriculture was what made America great and rich. This industry has been struggling for many years and is also suffering from a lost generation of people not going into the industry. Many are predicting that farming will have its time in the sun again very soon - especially due to booming world populations and squeezes on resources (e.g. Water).

donnojackshit Stratajema
Apr 9, 2012 - 8:09pm

@Stratajema

I think you may be right about the rangebound nature of gold for 2012. If Ivars' charts are correct, then it will be silver that has a run later in the year leading towards a GSR in the low 20's. I still don't understand how silver will crack the $50's though, when the Crimex is so thinly traded and so easily manipulated? I can see gold having a run early in 2013, post the US elections and Iran war commencement.

I Run Bartertown
Apr 9, 2012 - 8:17pm

I hope

this guy:

Gold Extraction Process Using Mercury

gets enough gold to buy gloves, or a torch like this guy:

Removing Mercury From Gold
The Body
Apr 9, 2012 - 8:18pm

The Body needs some perspective

There has been a lot of talk lately about price manipulation and suppression. My gut feeling is that these types of things are real but what I can’t understand is how there is even a single ounce of real, non-paper silver to be had anywhere.

The anti-fiat light went on for me about 4 years ago; I despise every paper piece of fiat toilet paper I come in contact with and have actively tried to unwind as much of my fiat as possible/practical; yet I have never once run into a situation where there was a supply shortage such that my physical demand could not be met. How can this be?

I understand that paper silver essentially increases the overall supply of “silver” and that the price is based on this fake increased supply but doesn’t it seem like if suppression was happening to the degree that we claim, there would be no real stuff left?

We claim that if true price discovery happened, silver would be at least $100/ounce. I can’t imagine anything real and of value being priced at a 66% + discount remaining on the shelves for any length of time yet silver seems to have defied this for many years.

What am I missing here?

Maryann Maryann
Apr 9, 2012 - 8:18pm

@ recapture, I'm slow today

Obviously I wasn't a chemistry major...but I know my metals now!!!

pforth
Apr 9, 2012 - 8:41pm

Feels like a bit of a battle...

This is usually one of the most quiet times of the day, but it feels like a bit of a battle right now.... the bar ranges huge and the price is jumping up and down 10-20 cents every few minutes. Earlier today was interesting too, with the big spike up to nearly 33 as well as a smaller spike during the day. New players in town?

HappyNow
Apr 9, 2012 - 8:53pm

@CaLawyer.

College. At age 10 I wouldn't start shaping his/her view (at least, not conciously haha). Why not ask your child what they would like to do, and why, and explore with them their vision of the future? This will develop leadership and critical thinking. I doubt leadership will ever be useless ;)

treefrog
Apr 9, 2012 - 8:59pm

college?

when i first saw this question raised, i wrote a p.m to one of the first posters on the subject. then, i read further comments and saw it had become a topic of general discussion. here is the p.m. slightly edited:

in regard to the point you raised about education and employment in the post-keynesian economy, i can't give you any answers, but i can share my experience. i graduated from florida state university in 1968 with a double major in history and economics. i had intended to follow a career in law, but romance and the anti-war/sex/drug/alcohol scene of the late '60s intervened. the career in law quickly became a non-starter. after a few years of fairly middle class existence as a state bureaucrat, i had a marriage blow up and spent a few years as an itinerant construction worker (i became a pretty good carpenter). at one point, i was visiting home (central fl) and ran into my old scoutmaster who was a pipefitter in the shipyards in tampa. he got me a job as an apprentice with the pipefitters union - starting at the bottom - with a wage higher than i had been making as a carpenter.

to make a long story short (it may be a little late for that), i became an instrumentation technician (a specialty of pipefitting dealing with industrial controls featuring pneumatics and hydraulics). i had a long and happy career with instrumentation, and several times made more than $100,000/yr (in the '80s and '90s that was good money), but there are several important points:

job security: there are almost no long term positions. i worked for contractors building or modernizing industrial plants, and when the project was finished, there was no more job.

"booming around:" of necessity, there is a lot of travel involved. sometime across town, sometimes across the country. this can be good or bad depending on one's attitude about travel, but it is a severe strain on family life.

overtime: in industrial construction, the controls always go in last, so i was usually hired during the last six months or so of a project. quite often, in fact almost always, projects run behind schedule. this has to do with engineers' attitudes that there will be perfect weather, all materials will be delivered on time, and all will go according to plan. this attitude is surgically inserted in engineering schools. in the real world, there is almost always schedule slippage. construction project managers' knee jerk response is to schedule more overtime, often up to the maximum allowed by law, 12 hr. shifts, 7 days a week. some may think this a hardship. i think it an economic opportunity. with time and a half over 40, double time on sunday, i often ended up being paid over $3k a week - before taxes of course. practically no one does that 52 weeks a year. not and stays sane. my solution was to take frequent breaks

breaks: my typical pattern was to work lots of overtime for several months, and either get laid off at the end of a job, or to "drag up" (construction slang for quitting with or without a macho insult to the foreman). then, i would come home with a basket of money (making those kind of hours doesn't leave a lot of time for spending it), and take a few months off catching up on my fishing, or building myself a homestead, or a little of both. this enabled me to take my kids on long rambling camping trips when they were ages 5-15. i was divorced - again - (occupational hazard) and had custody six weeks each summer. we did the rockies several times, the canadian maritimes once, and europe twice. looking back, i think the kids had a great childhood. when it was time for the break to end, a trip to the union hall to ask the business agent where they needed an instrument man. i was good enough at it that i never had to wait more than two weeks. "what? albuquerque again? good. i liked that last time."

all in all, a lot more enjoyable than filling out government forms behind a desk at the state employment service. better pay too!

a reading reccommendation: ON HIGH STEEL (subtitle: the education of an ironworker) by mike cherry. there aren't many educated people who go into the skilled trades, and even fewer who write books about it. mike cherry was a math teacher who had a mid-life crisis and ended up as an ironworker (other trades consider ironworkers all a little crazy). he wrote an entertaining book about it.

i have no idea whether any of this will help with your quandry about what path your kids should take, but it was fun writing it. besides, as your kids grow older you may realize how small a vote you have in the matter. trying to buck their decisions (even when they're obviously wrong) is frustrating and often counter-productive. good luck.

let me know what you think about the ironworker book

Fred Hayek
Apr 9, 2012 - 9:01pm

@ the body

I think they *are* having a hard time supplying it at the Comex. Harvey Organ has noted at his site that Comex deliveries used to all take place on the first or second day of the month. In March, they didn't give the last couple hundred contract holders their silver till a few days before April. Also, we can infer from some of the data that there have been hundreds of contract holders paid a premium to not wait and get paid with silver each of the last couple delivery months. Harvey will point out that on some day they announced that the number of contract holders who still hadn't received delivery of silver had decreased from 1200 to 1000 but at the same time they only claim to have given the required silver to 100 parties. So what happened to the other 100 parties no longer waiting? Harvey believes they were paid off with cash above and beyond the value of the contract to go away in order to reduce the number of contracts that had to be filled with a delivery of actual silver.

Patriot Family
Apr 9, 2012 - 9:25pm

No reason to not do both - degree and trade craft

I have a degree, and some years where I earned really good money. I can also honestly say I had absolutely no need for a degree to engage in my profession. It got my foot in the door with a couple of good companies, and that's about it. I have seen enough smart people without a degree succeed in life that I don't think it's necessary unless you are entering a specialty career field like medicine, engineering, or architecture.

I have four children. Two are coming up on college age. They already know I am not in a position to pay for their college education at a private school unless they earn scholarships. I have asked my two oldest boys to think about learning a trade first, or perhaps look into joining the military. I want them to mature first, and investigate what they have a passion for in life before they make long term career decisions.

As a side note, I have also started a sideline business that I hope will slowly grow into a full time family income that I can pass along to my children. It's awfully important to have at least two income streams these days so you have something to fall back on. My younger son is already taking an interest.

¤
Apr 9, 2012 - 9:28pm

new thread

see above

Fiend's Brave Victim
Apr 9, 2012 - 9:31pm

Education

I should have gone and studied philosophy or classics probably (it suits my thinking, which seems to be an equal measure of rationalism and abstraction), but I hit university age when Mr. Blair came to power here in the UK and stated that he wanted 50% of kids to go to university, and was an avid BMX/downhill biker during my school years. The rhetoric from the government (I was your classic politicised young lefty, but with big, then-unreconciled questions over state education, debt-driven education and private property, so at least I wasn't totally stupid) and the resulting idiotic advice from teachers in the state school I attended ('You should go to university', 'Why and to do what?', 'Just because, and just do anything'), combined with my self-made obsession over riding bicycles (including becoming a good technician that could command more than the average part-time school job wage working on bikes) made me very reluctant to study particularly hard, even at 16--18 stuff, never mind degrees. I ended up on an apprenticeship (out of my own volition---the school careers service didn't even mention technical qualifications to me) as a gas engineer, which has served me much better financially than most of my bubble-degree-bearing contemporaries, as did the property bubble created by the aforementioned Mr Blair and cohorts at the BofE.

But God damn I have been bored for ten years at work. I have to have a LOT of outside interests (I was in 'one of the bands that defined the decade' according to the BBC---not a reliable source, I am one hell of a book typographer, I have mastered printing across multiple processes, I have been a published writer and photographer, I have a long held interest in politics which led me to economics, then trading), but somehow having to spend the majority of your life doing something you're bored shitless with is still tough and doesn't make for contentedness. I ran a few businesses for a while too, but fundamentally not in an interesting field for me (bloody gas again for the most part). Now this might just be my temperament at work here, but I would suggest to anyone considering their kids' futures that, if they have someone smart on their hands, they need to feed them in a way to encourage them to be nimble---specialisation is for insects and all (Heinlein!). Classics, combined with getting them a bike/car/mechano set to play with, seems like a goer to me. Some critical thinking, logic, facility for abstraction, and mechanical understanding (these will not be supplied by a state education, by the way).

There is a fetish for 'trades', do not get carried away with it. I lectured at a tech college for a couple of years just before the bubble burst and saw plumbers' wages go from £250--300 a day to £30--40 (below minimum wage here because you're competing with benefit frauds who will work cash for less). Just before it burst we had queues of 300+ people on open nights trying to sign up for plumbing courses designed for 12. My brother is a time-served joiner and was offered minimum wage a few months ago for a job that required him to supply his own tools and vehicle for the job---as good as working for probably £3/hour. There are bubbles in other things than real estate and fucking AAPL! A few years ago the press was running stories about tradesmen earning £100k a year here (it was and still is true in London on occasion, mostly in the high-skilled trades like mine and not elsewhere in the country) due to huge shortages of labour (also not true). Sure enough, every kid with a humanities degree, every taxi driver and estate agent, piled in and then pop. Fundamentally these are low skills that can be learned in about three weeks by a half-smart person. I am at the top of the game in the gas engineering world, faultfinding on relatively complex electronic appliances, and I could probably teach most of you how to do it in a month, with a couple more in the field for you to get familiar. It certainly wouldn't be the direction I'd be pointing my kids if I had any. I certainly don't have an easy answer for you fathers, but I can at least sound a note of caution on 'trades'...

The answer might be computer stuff (the hard stuff, not the apps or web design, which is likely highly oversupplied when it gets squeezed), it might be entrepreneurship (although that one is high risk), or it might be the good old middle-class professions (if I'd know how many accountants were millionaires by 35, or how much fun it is to be a criminal law barrister...)

Good luck to you, having kids is something I can't imagine doing the way things stand at the moment!

paulindoon
Apr 9, 2012 - 9:38pm

Is the conflict close to an edge

Link: https://debka.com/article/21907/

Big US-Arab Gulf air force exercise draws Iranian warning to stop at once DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 9, 2012, 11:04 PM (GMT+02:00) Gulf tensions soared Monday, April 9, when Iran warned the US and the Gulf Arabs to halt their joint air-sea exercise, the biggest the Gulf has ever seen – or else. debkafile reports: 200 fighter-bombers launched the exercise Sunday - 100 taking off from the USS Enterprise and USS Abraham Lincoln, 100 contributed by the Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti and Bahraini air forces. They are simulating war with Iran and an operation to reopen Hormuz in cause it is closed to traffic.
recaptureamerica
Apr 9, 2012 - 9:51pm

Maryann, I saw you got my

Maryann, I saw you got my attempt on a little humor.. Yes chemistry...one just has to know several periodic chart symbols and know how to acquire them.

recaptureamerica
Apr 9, 2012 - 10:24pm

College

Let the juniors and junior-ettes go to " Life University". Travel, explore, experiment, experience, etc ...have them yearning to learnin'. I have travelled to many, many places and nothing I studied in a book, classroom, or lecture hall,( and I have been in many of them) can come any where close to travelling and experiencing REAL life like different people, culture, arts, food, etc. Nothing! There is a REAL world out there and it ain't in a college or University. One will find their true selves and develop their life's potential by integrating and sharing with other people throughout the world. Mass education develops and creates drones and slaves to and in a system that we stop evolving and growing, on purpose.

Big Rocks
Apr 9, 2012 - 11:21pm

Harvey

Fred, Harvey does a good job keeping track of comex deliveries. Please don't take everything he says as gospel. There has never been any proof that contract holders are paid a cash premium to release their contract. More likely they didn't want to wait any Longer to get delivered into and bought on the spot market or elsewhere and liquidated their contracts in the marketplace at market prices. Just saying.

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