Easter Weekend - BLSBS - Open Thread

275
Fri, Apr 6, 2012 - 8:52am

It's a 3-day holiday weekend. Markets are closed in the U.S. Too bad, too, as the metals would have seen a pop today.

As this is a holiday, I'll keep this brief with a few links links lifted from ZH that should begin the conversation. First up, this Lee Adler piece discussing the outright manipulation of the BLSBS data:

https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-14-05/nonfarm-payrolls-should-fall-377000-they-won’t

Next, here's the report of the actual data. (All the political incentive to goose these numbers and the best they could do was a lousy +120,000? Yikes! And the drop in the headline number to 8.2% is simply based upon a big reduction of the total number of people "in the labor force".)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-big-miss-120k-expectations-205k-unemployment-82

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/average-march-seasonal-adjustment-factor-824600

Lastly, a lot of talk about the Blythe Master interview yesterday on CNBS. Watching the video is fine and it's included in this ZH link. What you really need to read, however, is "Tyler's" reporting of it. Absolutely spot on analysis. For whatever reason. "Tyler" never overtly joins the goldbug camp. However, it is quite clear that, deep down, he is one of us.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/blythe-masters-blogosphere-silver-manipulation-its-gold-axed-clients-and-doing-wrong-thing

I'll stop there lest someone think that Harvey Organ has taken over as guest "Turd" for the day. I hope that everyone has a safe, relaxing and fun holiday weekend. Get ready for a wild week next! TF

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  275 Comments

silvermedusa
Apr 8, 2012 - 8:28pm

Question

How is MFer Global going to effect this year's planting season? Anyone here speak grain commodities fluently? Grain reserves are very low this year. Normally, this would mean farmers would plant a lot more. Also, cattle has gone up, citing higher feed costs. I am just wondering how MFer collapse is going to effect how ranchers and farmers plan for this season. I know we are a PMs site, but I believe all things are related.. Would love to hear what experienced TF commodities traders think.

The man who stole a leopard
Apr 8, 2012 - 8:54pm

Last word on PM confiscation

SBSS 27. Silver Confiscation
Patrancus
Apr 8, 2012 - 9:02pm

Gamaliel a doctor of the Law

Acts 5:36 Gamaliel a respected Pharisee intervenes in an address to the Sanhedrin

Men of Israel, be careful how you deal with these people. There was Theudas who became notorious not so long ago. He claimed to be someone important and he even collected about 400 followers; but when he was killed all his followers scattered and that was the end of them. And then there was Judas the Galilean, at the time of the census, who attracted crowds of supporters; but he got killed too, and all his followers dispersed. What I suggest, therefore, is that you leave these men alone and let them go. If this enterprise, this movement of theirs is of human origin, it will break up of its own accord; but if it does in fact come from God, you will not only be unable to destroy them, but you might find yourselves fighting against God.

Big Buffalo
Apr 8, 2012 - 9:11pm

Dang it!

was wondering why silver was stepping down after the initial pop....the dow futures currently down 132 points, under 13000. good and bad i guess. we need things to get worse before it gets better i suppose...

beardeus
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:00pm

What the?!

What the?!

pforth
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:04pm

Cool spike..

Looks like Blythe's finger cramped or something.

Irksome beardeus
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:10pm

Glad you saw that too!

Now, if it could just spike and HOLD... ;)

Tube
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:10pm

Spike

I was just gonna ask about that...strange indeed.

RaulP
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:16pm

glitch on Kitco?

Silver,platinum, palladium all spiked and then..?

Urban Roman
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:22pm

Cool spike

A janitor hit a breaker box with a mop handle and killed the lights. ... Backups were offline due to the holiday, and it took a couple minutes to get the 'bots back online.

Kcap
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:26pm

That spike will be understood in retrospect

This week will likely feature a leg down as big as that leg up (spike) which will paint the perfect candle to reflect the turnaround, bottom and completion of the right inverse shoulder.

I expect a $3-5+ up day in the not too distant future (within 6 weeks)

Kcap

JimmyTheHand
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:29pm

Kitco chart

I was wondering about that chart, some odd misprint?

Airgead
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:35pm
SRSrocco
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:42pm
Biscuit silvermedusa
Apr 8, 2012 - 10:50pm

@silvermedusa

Art Lomax seems to be one of the resident grain experts around these parts. You might get a fresh discussion going at https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/grains

And, yes, it seems that all things are related.

stealthbear
Apr 8, 2012 - 11:24pm

Metals spike

Metals spike....must be bad data. Does not show up on Forexpros.com real time futures chart.

Fred Hayek The man who stole a leopard
Apr 8, 2012 - 11:33pm

@The Man who sto. . .

That video on confiscation is wrong. There WAS confiscation of silver in 1934 but it was only certain identified parties who were known to be holding 50,000 ounces or more.

waxybilldupp Patrancus
Apr 8, 2012 - 11:39pm

@Patrancus - Gamaliel

"Acts 5:36 Gamaliel a respected Pharisee intervenes in an address to the Sanhedrin"

When I see a post like this all I can do is scratch my head and say "WTF?"

I am completely baffled as to how biblical stuff, particularly something as obtuse as that quote, has anything to do with ... oh, I don't know ... anything?

I guess it's just me. Something written down by goatherds a couple thousand years ago just doesn't really help me figure stuff out on a day to day basis. Word of God? Hmmmmm? Really? Help me understand why these words are more believable than the Koran or any other version of the "word of God". Why so many "versions"? Why dozens, perhaps hundreds of versions of "religion"? Can they all be the right one? If not, then, which one? Why? How do you know? What objective evidence makes it so? Why do biblical quotes have a place here? Just wondering.

goldenbear I_ate_the_crow
Apr 8, 2012 - 11:41pm

Correction

Just wanted to point out that Roger's is not referring to Coxey's Army, but Cox's Army... in 1932.

So he might not be as confused and inaccurate as you state in your comment. Just thought I would clarify... You're certainly entitled to your opinion of him...

silvermedusa
Apr 8, 2012 - 11:42pm

Biscuit

Thanks, put in a new thread. I don't usually follow ag commodities, but I am fascinated by how ag producers will be dealing with this. In light of low reserves, drought in south america, beef rising to herd reduction/high feed costs, it will be interesting to see how ranchers/farmers plan to hedge now. I ponder if we return to farmers/ranchers operating as in the past, at the whim of Mother Nature with no hedging. Considering diesel/oil costs on top of it, going to make for a Spring to remember? Ag chems are rising in price?

I hope everyone had a nice Easter. I spent most of my time in the garden, weeding/pruning, tending to herbs, early greens and prepping soil for warm weather plants. I love the yearly renewal of green each spring. Gives me hope.

johnnydow
Apr 8, 2012 - 11:54pm

Dow Transports

Bull Flag. Crude dropping. Buying any major dips on equities. Tape bomb explosive earnings to the upside possible. Selling Gold.

GDX freefall. Good luck.

FleetFeet
Apr 9, 2012 - 12:17am

Problem solved

Thanks to Tesla, Admin, and Starlight for suggestions. I used the first and easiest, quit and restart Safari, and that did the trick (I'll remember the other suggestions for future needs). I forget sometimes how long the browser's been continuously open -- weeks at a time, maybe sometimes months.

Now to catch up on the missed viewings . . .

Nick Elway
Apr 9, 2012 - 12:20am

US Troops in Mali suffer setback from Tuareg

Tuareg Nation Upsets U.S. Policy in Africa

Azawad proclaims independence in North Mali.

----Snip

This extremely poor region of desert and savannah is presently very much in play, with U.S. (as well as French) special forces fighting against terrorists in cooperation with regional militaries from Uganda, Kenya, and South Sudan in the east to Niger, Mali, and Mauritania in the west, passing by Nigeria’s north. The major regional power, Algeria, has received strong marks from the U.S. government for its assistance and cooperation in this policy. Several Algerian consular officials in Gao were taken prisoner, reportedly, by Ansar Edine elements, following the fall of the city. The assault appears to have been designed to impress U.S. assistant secretary of state Johnnie Carson, conferring even as it happened with the president and foreign minister of Algeria in Algiers.

---Snip

The whole article:

https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/tuareg-nation-upsets-us-policy-afri...

........................................................................................................

Yes, U.S. special forces in Mali. I don't think this is on FOX news..

johnnydow
Apr 9, 2012 - 12:37am

ZH Google Trends

Looks like the gold chart.

maravich44 Nick Elway
Apr 9, 2012 - 12:39am

..Africa= assets,assets, assets, @Nick Elway.,,,

...mineral deposits etc..ahh these criminals will fall.

Nick Elway
Apr 9, 2012 - 1:05am

@Fred H More on Silver Confiscation..coins were exempt

Compensation..50 cents an ounce(after mint charges)..coins were exempt from confiscation, but most bullion over 80% fine was included in the order.

I believe their ability to track down (no computers then) non-exchange bullion meant little was confiscated, and in 1934 a silver dollar contained less than a dollar in silver.

2012 is a bit different..

------------------------------------------------------


Read more at the American Presidency Project: Franklin D. Roosevelt: Executive Order 6814 - Requiring the Delivery of All Silver to the United States for Coinage https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=14741#ixzz1rVx8PzU0

----------

SECTION 4. Amount returnable for silver..–The silver herein required to be delivered shall be coined into standard silver dollars, or otherwise added to the monetary stocks of the United States in accordance with the proclamation, bearing the same date as this order, relating to the coinage of silver, and there shall be returned therefor in standard silver dollars, silver certificates, or any other coin or currency of the United States, the monetary value of the silver so delivered (that is, $1.2929+ a fine troy ounce), less a deduction of 61 8/25 percent thereof for seigniorage, brassage, coinage, and other mint charges, as provided in such proclamation; that is, the amount returnable for the silver delivered in accordance herewith shall be an amount equal to 50+ .– a fine troy ounce, which amount is not less than the fair value, at the time of this order, of the silver required to be delivered hereunder as determined by the market price over a reasonable period terminating at the time of this order.

----------------

gatortrader
Apr 9, 2012 - 1:37am

Called it

See previous post (Here's for optimism- and a $100 up week):

The Bottom

Submitted by gatortrader on April 4, 2012 - 6:24pm. Hat Tip! 9

...is in. Or at least it would seem. Watching CNBC today I realized how completely pre-written each and everyone of their comments are. I heard them go off on Gold like you'd think its fatally wounded, the best is Gartman and what he sputes. It seems to me when I hear one of those guys talk about the technicals of gold and how they are broken, that is just the time to buy. When the technicals are the rosiest, its time to sell. Look at the bottom at the end of Dec. When most pessimistic, capitulation ensues, and the bottom is reached. When I hear the turd say that the Comex is finally broken, it reeks of pessimism and lost hope, or the absolute best time to buy. Whether we reached it today or tom or fri, the bottom is near. I think it just arrived.

gatortrader
Apr 9, 2012 - 1:39am
atarangi
Apr 9, 2012 - 1:43am

Religion is bullshit - - -

George Carlin on Religion and God
Peaches Marie
Apr 9, 2012 - 2:13am

@atarangi

Your post in no way belongs in or befits this forum. You have earned at least one "ignore user" for your effort. Only the second that I have ever imposed.

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