In the Christian tradition, today is Holy Thursday, the beginning of the Easter Triduum. In the U.S. market tradition, Good Friday signals the start of a 3-day weekend. So, here we are, it's only Thursday but this is the last trading day of the week and tomorrow brings the BLSBS. Oh, boy. I hope you're ready.
As stated in the previous post, I hate being wrong. I have also grown to hate big down days due to the predictable appearance on this site and other outlets of the disinformation trolls. Let's see, gold is now at $1625. Oh boo hoo hoo. The same price it was at last back in January and back in August. Oh, the humanity! "Gold is terrible", they scream. "Gold is going back to the triple digits", they exclaim. Whatever. Anyone foolish enough to fall for this nonsense deserves their place in the pen with the rest of the sheep.
I could cite example after example of BS disinfo but, for today, let's just take one: The notion that, like the 1980s, gold has peaked with inflation and is about to be wrung out lower while equities and other paper investments spring forward. The folly of this argument is the utter lack of historical perspective. Thirty years ago, the level of U.S. government deficit and debt was just a miniscule fraction of what it is today. This fact alone allowed Fed Chairman Volcker the luxury of temporarily raising the federal funds rates to a peak of 20% in June of 1981. If The Bernank were to accomplish this today, of course gold would crash...and so would everything else. But, the key here is, he can't. The Bernank is squarely inside of a box of his own making. As stated ad nauseam, interest rates cannot be allowed to rise. Under no circumstances. No way, no how. Higher rates simply accelerate the unraveling of The Great Ponzi. Disarmed without this rate hiking "tool", The Bernank is left with only one option: Quantitative Easing, or, put more simply, the creation of new money which is used primarily to fund the U.S. federal deficit. Without this new money/demand, rates would have to rise to the point where "natural/organic" buyers would emerge and, needless to say, the 10-year note would no longer be 2.5%. Anyway, I could go on and on but I won't. The main thing you need to know is that there is no conceivable way that the U.S stands on the doorstep of an 80s-type recovery. It's simply not happening. Pressure to keep rates low will lead to further devaluation of the dollar. Further devaluation of the dollar leads to further highs in the precious metals. Period. End of story.
Now, let's get to the charts. After a week such as this, I suppose I could give you all sorts of charts with pretty, multi-colored lines all over them. Instead, here's the only chart that matters. As long as this trend remains intact, everything from Labor Day to today is simply noise.
And here's an hourly chart of gold. Note that yesterday's low is right near where the long-term trendline resides on the chart above. Clearly, a move back above 1630 would be a positive first step.
The silver charts are interesting, too. First, on this long-term chart, note that patience is clearly going to be required for a bit longer, maybe well into the summer. However, you'll notice that not only is the long-term trendline near $26, there are three, separate bottoms at the number, too.
On the short-term silver chart, notice that yesterday's decline bottomed out at almost the exact same point where it bottomed on March 22. For now, this is very encouraging and gives us an area to watch for a possible floor/buying opportunity.
Just a couple of odds and ends before I wrap this up. First, in Uncle Ted's mid-week update he referenced the Enforcement Division Director of the CFTC, a man named David Meister. Ole Meisterbrau is, apparently, a pretty important guy within the Division of Eunuchs. So far, I've not advocated emailing anyone at the CFTC regarding the 3.5-year, ongoing silver manipulation investigation. However, in the holiday spirit, maybe it's time to start. Rather than filling the inboxes of Gensler or The Mullet, maybe we should all drop a note to Meisterbrau. Let's all ask him for a personal update on the status of the ongoing investigation. Perhaps he could even offer some guidance as to when it might be completed. All I ask is that you do this politely and refraining from showing the contempt that I have shown above. Mister Meister (say that out loud, I guarantee you'll laugh or at least smile) can be reached at dmeister[at]cftc[dot]gov
Here something interesting. The author of the article linked below is a Turdite. He sent it to me a few days ago and, upon review, I thought you might enjoy it, too. It speaks to dollar weakness and crude oil. There are several other Turdites whom I'm sure will have some considered opinions on the validity of the thesis. I look forward to reading the comments. https://acminc.com/opt-out
Lastly, at around noon eastern I will be posting a new podcast that you should be sure to listen to. It is extremely important because of the idea presented as well as the "gravitas" of the presenter. I will make it a "sticky" for the entire weekend. Please make the time to listen.
As I close, I see that the metals are actually UP this morning. What a treat! I hope everyone has a fun and relaxing holiday weekend. I'll try to start an "open thread" for the weekend tomorrow, once we see the latest BLSBS. TF
p.s. Since this is Holy Thursday, I thought it appropriate to share the video below. As you know, The Turd is a long-time, devoted fan of U2. The song below comes from the incomparable 1991 album Achtung Baby. You may be familiar with the disc and this track but did you know the meaning of it? The lyric is written from the perspective of Judas Iscariot and the events of 1979 years ago today. Knowing that, you should give this song a fresh listen. I think you'll find it interesting.