Tue, Apr 3, 2012 - 4:38pm


[skit-suh-free-nee-uh, -freen-yuh] noun
1. Psychiatry . Also called dementia praecox. a severe mental disorder characterized by some, but not necessarily all, of the following features: emotional blunting, intellectual deterioration, social isolation, disorganized speech and behavior, delusions, and hallucinations.
2. a state characterized by the coexistence of contradictory or incompatible elements.
Whaddayagonnado? The Bernank giveth and The Bernank taketh away. Just a short 6 trading/business days ago, we were greeted with this:
Gold rallied over $23 last Monday, following upon a $20 UP day the previous Friday. Pretty impressive.
Today, gold had been threatening critical moving average, technical and Fibonacci resistance near 1680 and silver had finally looked like it was gaining a significant toe-hold above $33. Unfortunately, the latest FOMC minutes were released after the Comex close and lookee here:
"Now, wait a second", you must be saying. "Hold on just a minute", you must be mumbling. "Just last week, The Bernank mentioned more QE was on the way and now today it's not. Did things change overnight? Huh?"
Of course not! Welcome to the land of limitless SPIN and MOPE. Up is down. Left is right. Inside is outside. It doesn't matter. Everything matters. And notice that much of the reported "enthusiasm" and "optimism" is based upon the disturbingly faulty and manipulated BLSBS data from January and February.
Look, if you actually believe that The Fed is no longer going to be creating new money to fund the continual trillions in debt and deficit for the U.S. government, you're even dumber than I am. And, if based upon this belief, you wish to sell your physical gold and silver, knock yourself out. I'm sure there are lots of folks around this site that will gladly take it off your hands. I, for one, don't believe any of it and you shouldn't, either.
If you haven't yet, perhaps you should take 10 minutes and read this:
and this:
Besides, none of this nonsense should surprise you. We were warned of this "reaction" earlier:
And already, some are discounting the MOPE:
In the end, please try not to get too stressed out over this. Could I be wrong and "Turd's Bottom" in gold fail? Of course! However, as the chart re-print below shows, it is extremely unlikely that gold will drop to and through 1600. Maybe, in a wild bit of downward momentum, gold could trade there for a day or two. But, in the absence of real, significant change to the fundamentals, gold will not and cannot go down a whole lot farther.
Here are some updated charts. First, here are the 1-minute charts showing the drop in all its glory. By the way, keep in mind that today is Tuesday. This means that this entire episode occurred after the CoT survey. The timing was perfect for naked Cartel shorting as any new positions have a full week to be covered before evidence will be shown. Additionally, I just saw the OI numbers from yesterday. Gold rallied $8 yesterday and gold OI jumped by nearly 4,700 contracts. Oooops. All those new longs just got their guts ripped out this afternoon. Again, when the only entities trading are Cartel monkeys and WOPRs, the WOPRs are going to get fleeced time and again. It is also important to note that silver has not fallen this afternoon at the same percentage rate as gold. This is just another sign (the stable OI is another) that the current Comex silver longs are resolute and strong. Another, very encouraging long term development.
And here are the 12-hour charts. The "smiles" have definitely faded but no lasting damage has been done...yet. Note that silver looks just fine, thank you, at 32.50 and gold found bids again near 1640. Unless the Forces of Darkness are able to mount another raid overnight or early tomorrow, I suspect we'll begin to see a rebound as we head toward the BLSBS on Friday.

Anyway, that's all for now. Hang in there and relax. Smile and be happy. SPIN and MOPE cannot work to infinity. One day soon, truth will once again see the light of day and facts will prevail. Have faith. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 3, 2012 - 4:41pm

*$&@#(%)#@*@ *$*(#(%2

*%*#^&@ ()()()#$* $@(($ %9#*&23 $@((@0530 @&&$828 589ej389@*$*@95

*($(@&%9%(# (@)$9478 ()@%@#$#) $(*(%&# ()@*$&@ )@*$&*@# 9@84

$((%&@()!!-3549238 $(0350 @&!@638 )%$9#%8$ (@*$(%)3-

And I mean it too.

Apr 3, 2012 - 4:42pm


Uh....better read the post now.

H - original
Apr 3, 2012 - 4:43pm


Thanks TF

Apr 3, 2012 - 4:51pm

anybody else problems opening

anybody else problems opening the pictures?

Apr 3, 2012 - 4:51pm


Darn, no bronze metal. (I had posted 'Thurd' w/out looking.) That's ok, I'll take silver instead!

Anyway, what a cheap blow regarding today's action. To be expected, still. I think we should expect high volatility this year, so this is nothing. It didn't even fall all that much.

Quoting Monty Python: "It's just a flesh wound." read the Turdmeister's post above....

Silver Meddler
Apr 3, 2012 - 4:52pm

The price dropped...

I was going to buy when it went under $1650, but I think my wife was hoping for something more in the lower $1600 to $1500 range. Guess we'll have something to talk about tonight. Hopefully the price won't shoot up before I make up my mind! indecision

Apr 3, 2012 - 4:54pm


After todays' P.M. dive, it seemed like a good time to create a joint venture between California Lawyer, Mr. T.F. and myself with the funds that we still have in our accounts. I have the river and C.L. and Mr. T.F. will have to build the boat. This lifestyle is looking better and better every month.

Dr G
Apr 3, 2012 - 4:55pm

One would have to assume that

One would have to assume that there will be fudged data AGAIN on Friday which will provide ample cover for another raid under the guise of stellar BLSBS data.

Apr 3, 2012 - 5:00pm

A second first?


Edit: "Everything matters." Yeah, just ask my bride. I'm home from work all week and the weight of the "to-do" list she handed me Saturday is staggering. I've been working diligently the last 2 days to turn it into my "to-don't" list. Then she threw me a curve. She worked from home this morning, so I had to actually look like I was doing stuff. It really makes her nervous when she sees me stop moving. Then, around noon, she finally left. I bugged out minutes later and headed for the nearest casino. Came home about 30 minutes ago with $460 fresh fiat in my pocket. Been thinking about how best to deploy it. More shiny is an obvious option, but something else caught my attention last evening as I was drifting around the "internets".

DHS, our protectors of the Motherland, very recently signed a contract for delivery of 450 MILLION rounds of the latest design hollowpoint .40 cal. ammo. Yep, you heard that correct ... 450 freakin' MILLION rounds of .40 cal. What could they possibly need with that? Boggles the mind!

Right now, I'm inclined to make a pilgrimage this coming Friday to my nearest Cabela's and stock up on some different shiny: ... .223, 9mm, .40 cal., and .45 cal.

That's the good part. I checked those self-same "internets", when I got home, and find that TheBernank and Blythe picked my PM pocket yet again. Man, this is getting old. Don't know about my fellow Turdites, but I'm really ready to snap the tab on a frosty one. It must be 6 pm somewhere.

Time to kick back and enjoy one of the top 10 best rock songs by one of the top 5 rock bands.

****** Parental warning ****** If you are offended by knuckleheads raising hell on Knuckleheads, or by young women taking their brown-nosed puppies out for some fresh air, then move along! Nothing to see here. The rest of you, turn up the volume and lean back in the chair. Tomorrow's another day.

Video unavailable
Apr 3, 2012 - 5:02pm

From last thread

In a sign of the diminishing returns of paper market manipulation, on the heels of today's Fed minutes disappointment, beginning at 2pm EST, over 127,000 contracts, or 637.535 MILLION OUNCES OF PAPER SILVER were dumped on the market in only 1 hour, resulting in a massive silver decline of.... $0.65.
You read that correctly. 

Nearly 80% of ENTIRE ANNUAL WORLD MINING SUPPLY was dumped on the market (during the thinly traded Globex session), over a single hour, and all the cartel could muster was a lousy .65 decline in the paper price of silver!

Apr 3, 2012 - 5:10pm

"I weep for you," the Walrus

"I weep for you," the Walrus said. "I deeply sympathize." With sobs and tears he sorted out Those of the largest size. Holding his pocket handkerchief Before his streaming eyes. "O Oysters," said the Carpenter. "You've had a pleasant run! Shall we be trotting home again?" But answer came there none -- And that was scarcely odd, because They'd eaten every one.' 'I like the Walrus best,' said Alice: 'because you see he was a little sorry for the poor oysters.' 'He ate more than the Carpenter, though,' said Tweedledee. '
You see he held his handkerchief in front, so that the Carpenter couldn't
count how many he took: contrariwise.' 'That was mean!' Alice said indignantly. '
Then I like the Carpenter best -- if he didn't eat so many as the Walrus.' 'But he ate as many as he could get,' said Tweedledum. This was a puzzler. After a pause, Alice began, 'Well! They were both very unpleasant characters -- ' 
Apr 3, 2012 - 5:11pm

Don't Trade

I don't trade paper silver or gold. I have a small stack but unfortunately it's lying in the deep of the Puget Sound. Glad I don't trade this market. You could get wiped out in a heartbeat. I know that my stack remains the same despite a manipulative dump in price.

I just hope those that are trading enter tight stops. Days like today make me happy that I am a stacker.


Pax Argentum
Apr 3, 2012 - 5:18pm

@ Tyberious - Interesting Thought..

+1 Hat Tip, Tyberious

Would be interesting to map quantity of shorts to measured drop in paper silver price to see if the actions of the Cartel are losing or gaining effectiveness. Based on anecdotal information, I'd tend to agree with you that over time repeated floggings will have less and less effect but it'd be nice to see it graphed with actual numbers.

Either way, my stack is just as shiny and heavy as it was this morning before the monkey-hammering.

They can move markets, but they can't defy gravity...

Coyote Fall

Keep Stacking, BTFD, Blah, should know the drill by now. Just do it.


Feed the Turd

Apr 3, 2012 - 5:22pm


This market is really testing my patience

Apr 3, 2012 - 5:23pm

It's nothing

Just a 30$ drop for gold and silver looking very strong today (traded 33.20 right before FOMC and still at 32.60 now).

Like Dr G said, it's fridays BLSBS data i am worried about. If we can get past that without damage, we should still be good for a decent April.

Apr 3, 2012 - 5:24pm

That Word Again - Fundamental

"in the absence of any real, change in the fundamentals..."


The only change in the fundos is that they are getting worse, which is gold/silver positive.

Gentleman Jim sent out a message earlier and said essentially that all this MOPE is accomplishing is to coil the gold/silver spring even tighter. So that when the price does release - it will be breath taking.

Turd - thank you for all you do and the other Turdites also. Keep stacking.

Apr 3, 2012 - 5:31pm


not reacting that much to the minutes, even though they were relatively bearish towards PMs.

when news don't have a strong effect on the trade, that's when one knows that side of the trade is weak.

in this case, the short side is weak, as the neg. news didn't affect prices too much.

Anyhoo. keep on keepin' on! :)

I Run Bartertown
Apr 3, 2012 - 5:35pm

Good Old Fashioned Free Market Innovation

"Mitsubishi has decided to “mothball” its Fort Smith wind-turbine manufacturing that was expected to employ 400 at full production."

"extending the Production Tax Credit (PTC)"

"income tax credit of 2.2 cents per kilowatt hour of energy produced by utility-scale wind turbines"

 "Wind-energy companies need to know if incentives will or won’t be available to them long-term"

"Having to wait every year to find out the fate of federal support for this emerging industry does not help innovation or economic development.”

"as a result of the government’s ‘feed-in tariff’ policy to promote renewable energy"

"Fort Smith chamber has paid a little more than $240,000 of a $585,000 incentive package used to recruit Mitsubishi"

"federal stimulus funds were planned to be used to support $3.7 million in tax-exempt bonds as part of the Mitsubishi incentive package"

"The city of Fort Smith spent about $1.6 million in road and water/sewer infrastructure support for the plant."

"The city will also issue $75 million in Industrial Revenue Bonds"

"in lieu of taxes equal to 50% of the normal property taxes"

"Gov. Mike Beebe authorized an undisclosed amount from his Quick Action Closing Fund"

I will tell you that if had it to do it all over again, we would do it the same way,” Harvel said."

laughI'm sure you would Mr. Harvel. I'm sure you would.

Apr 3, 2012 - 5:41pm

Smiles and other patterns

They can make the short term charts look like anything they want. They could probably write out their names in cursive but then nobody would take them seriously anymore. 

Unlevered buy and hold, that's my advice - every time they jam the tape down, more physical goes out the door to China. They can only play that card so many times before they lose too much physical to lever into paper.

There was a 1 year bear interlude in the mid-70s in gold, patience back then was rewarded and it will be rewarded now.

I Run Bartertown
Apr 3, 2012 - 5:49pm
Apr 3, 2012 - 5:51pm


Thanks Turd, Seems like old bend us all over bernake has a case of alzheimer's , he cant remember what lie he told when! his buddy mr.b o has the same problem. 

Straying From the Flock
Apr 3, 2012 - 5:56pm

Neither rain, nor snow, nor...

Lack of a car today, would have kept me from the LCS. My friendly neighborhood owner was pleased to see me at the door, he always smiles a bit when I walk in. He looked at me and then looked at the spot price on the jumbotron in his showroom floor and smirked. "I should have known." he said, and I just smiled back and threw some paper on the glass. $10 FV 90% later, I thanked him and went to leave. Only to stop and reach into my pocket.

Now it seems that I have a habit of looking at my change before I walk out of a store, yes, even the coin shop, silly I know. This time fate was on my side. Somehow a 1909 wheat penny, no mint mark, slipped into my change...nedless to say he frowned at the associate who delivered my change, and promptly exchanged it for a shiny mercury dime. Jackpot!

Thank you uncle Ben for your idiotic words from last month, even though they are outdated and the printing presses and severs at the fed have smoke pouring out of them. I will gladly purchase all the ammunition that you will give me to slay JP Morgan and HSBC. These financial terrorists must be stopped. 

Stack Faster!


p.s. as I was riding the bike home in the rain, the tire blew out and my $10 FV was lost to the storm drain. Oh well, I get paid again on Friday, just in time for the next beat down.

Apr 3, 2012 - 6:00pm

Gold - 1975-1976 response to exiledbear

EB - I think this is what you are alluding to:

21 Month Bear Interlude!

Apr 3, 2012 - 6:05pm

Did Jon (FU) Corzine and

Did Jon FU Corzine and Jamie Lookatme Dimon just get hired by The Fed and The CFTC??

Apr 3, 2012 - 6:11pm

Anybody else that is going to give up on the shiney

for the day and look at some heavy metal like lead might want to wander over to and check out the prices. You can get it on an RSS feed and put it on an iGoogle home page and the deals will stream by all day like a ticker tape. If you go to the page of one of the deals and go to the bottom of the page you will see a "deal history" listing which tracks the price of the item through time. It is very helpful and I have found some amazing deals from people that get overstocked. These are major online companies. Example:

.223/5.56 - $379.95/1,000 (Ammunition To Go) - Cost per round: 38.0 cents 

Deal History:
7/29/2008 - Starting price of $449.95
5/23/2009 - Price was $689.95 - $240
7/24/2009 - Price was $589.95 - $-100
1/5/2010 - Price was $429.9 - $-160.05
1/5/2010 - Price was $589.95 - $160.05
7/14/2010 - Price was $449.95 - $-140
3/10/2012 - Price was $369.95 - $-80
4/3/2012 - Price is now $379.95 - $10

There are many different categories other than ammo as well.

Apr 3, 2012 - 6:13pm

Is the strategy... create so much volatility that everyone is scared out of the commodity sector and into those lovely low VIX-ing equities? If so it's working pretty well.

Gold Dog
Apr 3, 2012 - 6:14pm


I AM long June futures. Ouch! That's the bad news.

The good news is that whenever I put a position on I am prepared to suffer through draw-downs and wait the market out.

Strong Hand Dog

Fr. Bill
Apr 3, 2012 - 6:16pm

This oughta be fun!

Quick, pop your popcorn and get settled in with your fave iced beverage to wash it down while you watch ...

Appeals court fires back at Obama's comments on health care case

I wouldn't wanna be that lawyer babe arguing in front of the 5th Circuit when it demands to know if the DOJ believes the Appeals Court may exercise judicial review of congressional legislation!

If she says "Yes," she's speaking counter to her boss, Lord Obama.

If she says "No," she's subject to disbarment for malfeasance.

Pity, that.

Apr 3, 2012 - 6:22pm

King Crimson

Thanks TF

This was Big Ben's favorite song while in college studying economics.

Video unavailable
Animal Sacrifice
Apr 3, 2012 - 6:23pm


Some (many?) of you play the Au/Ag ratio. I think that's a valid thing to play but I've seen it both much lower as well as much higher than it was today so I wouldn't know which side to take; it seems that gold and silver are pretty evenly valued (in my eyes - I'm not looking for any fast return to 1::16 or 1::100 - especially the latter.)

When platinum, though, hit 1::1 last year (I know I'm a Johnny One Note about this move on if you've heard me before,) I traded completely out of both gold and silver (except, painfully, for small slices of GDXJ and SIL,) and into platinum since I had only once before seen a 1::1 platinum/gold ratio which I played quite profitably back in 2009 or so. I got out of gold last year when the ratio again hit 1::1 and then sold (thankfully) a good percentage of my miners when it got to a place I'd never seen it, 1::1.10.

I think that no matter what the fiat price of gold and platinum are that I (and I also mean my fellow Turdites) can not go wrong switching out of gold and silver into platinum at this time, TODAY with the ratio at 1::1 Au/Pt (the Ag/Pt ratio also makes platinum cheap vis-a-vis silver.) I am fully invested in precious metals and own (aside from those two miner ETFs) zero gold or silver. Let me be clear: I have an incredible amount of physical accumulated over three generations and THAT is all gold and silver except for one ounce of platinum I recently bought just for the novelty. My personal taste aesthetically is NOT for platinum coins or jewelry but (in order,) gold, palladium, silver, platinum.) I was not willing to do the huge transactions with huge premiums and discounts to trade my physical metals making this Au/Pt ratio play; the premiums and discounts would have eaten deeply into the profit (in ounces - not fiat which is a hit or miss thing when one trades based on ratios) that I expect to make. The ratio play I am describing having made is entirely paper metals - CEF, PSIL, GTU, SVRZF et. al. on the silver and gold side and PPLT on the platinum side - which paper metals I have because I have two large self-directed IRA accounts where it is more convenient to trade metals as ETFs and CEFs as opposed to having the custodian hold bars in a vault (I have more faith, frankly, in, say CEF than I do in some of the custodians who are willing to hold physical bullion.)

The last time I did play the gold/platinum ratio, it took a tad over a year for the ratio to return enough to the norm that I made a substantial profit in terms of ounces. I think, despite having witnessed the ratio go recently to 1::1.10, that 1::1 is a very prudent place to switch out of gold (and silver since that ratio is also at historic lows) and into platinum. Again, I do not recommend doing this with physical holdings, only with paper metals one holds in their IRAs or elsewhere.

When I was in gold and silver, I would play the CEFs premium/discount percentages to good profits but that is not possible now since PPLT is pretty much the only platinum paper play (aside from miners and I know even less about platinum mining than I do about gold and silver mining.) Also, if you want to do options, PPLT isn't for you since no options for it trade (I often sell covered call options on my various shares to squeeze out a few extra shekels and miss being able to do that with PPLT.)

Here's a URL Turdite "stratagema" posted in the platinum forum comparing the four metal's ratios as of last November; they haven't changed that much in the intervening months:

I thought after reading the earlier posts about it that my posting of the significance of 1665 in a previous thread was funny. I posted my answer before I saw two other Turdites had posted identical answers to each other's and Turd had declared them winners. My answer came from a completely different point of view. I'm a priest in a magic blood-sacrifice religion and believe in miraculous healing. It's TA that I don't believe in ;-) I should have been quick enough on the uptake to think like Turd would think, not like I think.

I lose things all the time but oddly everything seems to turn up or come back to me sooner or later (I lost $20,000 of gold jewelry and two passports only to find them nearly a year later, etc. etc. etc.) Just weeks ago I lost a bracelet I just love, crafted mostly of palladium with some 14K yellow gold links (so much palladium, though, that the gold almost looks silver coloured.) It has about $3000 of just palladium in it and it's still MIA. I hope it turns up because I like it so much but if it doesn't by my next trip to Havana, I'll buy some palladium (I don't have any on hand anymore,) and take the silver and bronze original that I had copied into precious metals and have another made up in Mexico City on the way. It's odd that I didn't notice that much weight fall off my wrist, actually. Today I'm wearing the huge sterling necklace I had made out of the eBay scrap plates Eric Original suggested long ago. I don't wear the matching bracelete because I must sweat sulpher and cleaning it is a bitch. Xty remembers, I'm sure.

I have a simple yet very powerful technique taken from the practice of Metaphor Therapy that is probably wrong for posting on main street but I don't do personal messages. Since it has helped lost things return to me, helped my investing, my health, anything you can name, I might post it sometime tomorrow in a forum - probably "prepare accordingly" just because. You may look for it tomorrow sometime.

Do what you want about the gold/platinum ratio I just wrote about (again) but if you have paper gold and/or silver please consider it seriously. I know that someone posted that platinum would diminish behind the traditional place of gold as real money, FOFOA would cringe at selling gold to buy platinum (or silver probably), and it's just not talked about that much, but the ratio WILL return to the mean and investors who trade paper gold and silver and palladium now for paper platinum will reap ounces of profits.

Ibu Aye fun o mi opolopo owo (I'm stuck on a windoze computer at Justin's office and have no clue how to do diacriticals on them so assume they are there please.)

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 12/31

1/2 9:45 am ET Markit Manu PMI
1/3 10:00 am ET ISM Manu Index
1/4 8:30 am ET BLSBS
1/4 9:45 am ET Markit Serv PMI