Q12012 Is A Wrap
Well, 2012 is already 25% over. Where the heck does the time go? And why does it feel like it has been such a lousy quarter? The dirty, rotten scoundrels at the Comex will do that to ya.
Gold ended 2011 at $1569. Even with all of the tosses and turns of Q1, gold is trading at $1665. This is a YTD return, so far, of 6.12%. Hmmmm. Why is that number of interest? Well, we are 1/4 of the way through 2012 and if we continue at a pace of 6%/quarter, we end up with another 25% gain on the year. Imagine that. Does all of this current suppression/management/manipulation/capping make a little more sense in that perspective?
Silver began the year at $27.96 and stands, at this instant, at $32.50. This represents a 16.25% return for Q1. Again, though it feels sort of lousy right now, if I had promised you $32.50 by 3/30 back on 12/30, many of you would have fallen over dead laughing. The lesson here is: Keep the faith. The trend is inexorably higher.
And one more thing. There seems to be a larger than usual number of "turd bashers" around here lately. Comes with the territory but I'd like to point out two things:
- Though most are honestly disgruntled at the current "correction", keep in mind that this site and others are undoubtedly utilized by The Cartel Department of Intelligence to spout disinformation and doubt. Some "trolls" are simply here to do their job...that is to spread fear amongst The Good Guys.
- Along those lines, there seems to be a movement afoot by some posters to convince you that I'm not worth reading anymore. But what, exactly, am I currently wrong about? I sense a general line of thought that espouses that The Turd has lost the edge and is no longer useful. I don't know...maybe that's true. However, what about the general forecasting through Q1 was so incredibly off base. I warned about "red flags" in silver with the rising lease rates. I warned about significant Cartel resistance and a "Battle Royale" at 1800 and 36. Once the "correction" began, I quickly stated that silver could fall to 31 or even 30 while could might fall as low as 1600. I jumped the gun a bit on the bottom three weeks ago at 1680 but quickly recanted that with the "I Suck" post. My current and final "bottom call" of 1640 in gold is looking just fine and hasn't been seriously threatened all week.
Next, I thought I'd reprint a comment I tucked into the previous thread late yesterday. A reminder: Not every piece of information deserves its own post or update so I often add comments to the current thread in real time. Please be sure to scan the comments for updated information. To make this convenient for you, my comments are always set off in yellow, so as to easily catch your eye. This will save you time if you are simply scanning the comments, looking for any additional input from me.
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 29, 2012 - 3:46pm.
Just had a brief email exchange with Winston where I shared with him my thoughts on the OI numbers. He concurred and passed along three nuggets:
1. Today's spike down was simple bid-pulling manipulation intended to suck in a few more spec shorts. The new shorting was so extensive that April gold traded all the way down to a $2 backwardation with spot earlier today.
2. Large physical bids at 1655 spot and some large sovereign bids closer to 1650.
3. He expects a short-covering rally on the Comex tomorrow that will continue into next week as Q2 begins.
The nice rally we had overnight has all but disappeared into the London pm fix this morning. Oh well. I still expect...and I imagine Winston does, too...that the metals will rally through the afternoon today and will have a strong initial week of Q2, also.
One last thing about the OI numbers, they really are unusual and unusually bullish. As you might imagine, I'm not the only "grizzled veteran" who thinks this way. Check out this post from "Buffalo Dave" yesterday:
Here are your PM charts, complete with updated smiles. Whether or not these "bowls" or "cups" work out exactly within the formation matters little. What does matter is that both metals clearly appear to be basing above their "correction" lows. Higher prices are coming.
Next, just a word or two about crude. We first discussed the possibility of "gunning the shorts" back on Wednesday. Here's a reprint of the chart from that day:
Well, lo and behold, look what happened. I wouldn't necessarily fear this drop as it ended right where predicted, above $102. Crude may drift around here for a few days...between 100 and 102...but I sure don't think it's headed much lower. Maybe you think otherwise. That's fine. But maybe you should check the headlines.
Lastly, there's not a lot of talk about The Pig these days. It certainly looks, however, that that is about to change. Ole Pigatha is beginning to perch herself right on top of critical support near 78.50. As we approach that level next week, you can be assured that chatter and MOPE will increase in an attempt to talk her back from the ledge. We'll see, it will probably work for a while. However, as you can see on the two charts below, the POSX is very close to breaking down and out of the trend inspired by the end of overt QE2 and the beginning of Operation Twist last summer. Should 78.50 and 78 fail...which I'm quite certain they will at some point soon...the POSX will once again set its sight on a test of the all-important, critical and vital support of 72-73.
Please check back later today as I hope to record and post some very important site update information for you. Also, there will not be a podcast this weekend as I have podcasts scheduled for each of the next two weekends. I'll take a look at yesterday's OI numbers and the latest CoT report and then make a new post this afternoon. Until then, have a great day and keep smiling.