Saturday Gold and Silver Summary

228
107
Sat, Mar 24, 2012 - 12:31pm

I've found a couple of things for your weekend, so I thought it best to start this new thread. Mainly, I had to make sure that everyone saw the latest OI numbers and CoT report.

First of all, you don't have to wait for me. If you want to get this info for yourself, just save these links to your "favorites". The daily OI numbers are usually released by about 2:30 p.m. EDT and the CoTs come out every Friday at around 3:00 p.m. EDT.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements_futures.html

https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1332531154.php

Both the OI numbers from yesterday and the CoT were exactly what I was hoping for. I posted comments with analysis into the previous thread but I wanted to ensure that as many of you saw it as possible, so I am copy-and-pasting both comments below. It is important to keep in mind the limitations of these reports. They are not necessarily forward-looking in that both are already dated by the time they are released. Therefore, they should be treated more like "forensic evidence" of current and past Cartel activity. For example, it is very difficult to use CoT data exclusively to identify potential tops as the capacity to absorb spec longs is nearly unlimited. The Cartels could go to 4:1 net short or 5:1 net short on the backs of Fed-supplied cash and the established practice of fractional bullion banking. That said for 2012 we will, however, use the net short ratios of late February as benchmarks for possible Cartel limitations. As for calling bottoms, the data is more helpful. Bottoms form over a much longer time period than tops and price declines tend to bottom in the general area where Cartel net short ratios reached 2:1.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 2:39pm
Perfect, 100%-predictable OI moves yesterday.
Recall that I began feeling yesterday that the decline we saw yesterday morning was "it", the final low, at least for gold. Gold rallied in the late morning yesterday and closed the Comex down $7.70. I expected the OI to decline marginally as this has been the trend in this "correction". The numbers are in and the OI did decline marginally, falling back under 432,000 and a near double-bottom in OI with Tuesday's number, which coincides with a near double-bottom in price. With the rally today that continues this afternoon, chances are very high that I will be proven correct in this latest "Turd's Bottom" for gold.
Silver also acted as expected yesterday. Recall that, on Tuesday, silver declined $1.12 but total OI surged by over 3,000 contracts. I surmised at the time this was indicative of spec shorts being added at the bottom...shorts that will soon be fleeced by the EE with a sharp move to the upside. I was curious to see if OI rose again yesterday because, as you know, silver declined by $0.88 yesterday on the Comex session. Well, whaddayaknow? Total OI rose by 1,400 contracts yesterday during the near $1 selloff. I have deep faith that this was the final suck-in of extra spec shorts before the bottom, just like 2/28 was the final suck-in of the spec longs before the beatdown. For further evidence, as of yesterday the total silver OI is now 5,500 contracts higher than it was on 3/15/12 yet price is $1.38 lower.
Once again, this helps to complete the bottom picture. Spec longs have been wrung out of gold as total OI has now "double-bottomed" below 431,000...an OI level we last saw on Valentine's Day when price was $1718. Spec longs have been driven out of silver, too, and importantly, fresh spec shorts have now been driven in as total silver is already 5,500 contracts off of its "correction lows".

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 3:21pm.
WOW WOW WOW!!! I LOVE THE CoT REPORT!!!
GOLD
Exactly what I was hoping for! The large specs longs shed 15,468 or another 6% while large spec shorts grew by 3,975 or, roughly 11%. Beautiful! Even the small specs got in on the action by punting 4,500 longs while adding 1,600 shorts. The all-important Cartel did exactly what I'd hoped---They added 15,424 long (10%) while covering 10,126 (3%) shorts. This means the net short position of The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel shrunk by over 25,000 contracts during the week where price fell nearly $50! The net short ratio is now almost exactly 2:1, down from the 2.7:1 that it reached on 2/28 and is actually a shade lower than where it was on 12/27 when price was $1598. A very, very bullish picture!
SILVER
Like gold, almost perfect! First of all, remember that total OI barely budged over the 3/13-3/20 reporting period, only falling by about 300 contracts while price fell by nearly $2. Ideally, in this situation the large spec longs would be resolute while, at the same time, the EE shrunk their net short position. Additionally, I had hoped that the bulk of the downside price pressure had come from new large and small spec shorts. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED! ​While price fell $2, large spec longs actually added 30 contracts. This is what we mean when we say that "silver is in strong hands"! Another good sign is that large spec shorts surged by 17% and small spec longs punted almost 9%. Perfect!! Then...the all-important Evil Empire. The Forces of Darkness added 2,281 longs (+6.45%) while covering 1,224 shorts (1.7%). This is a net change in the overall short position of 3,500 contracts (-9.84%) and brings the net short ratio down to 1.85:1. Again, for reference, the EE net short ratio on 2/28 was 2.32:1 and, on 12/27/11 it was a scant 1.34:1. From a purely CoT perspective, you might conclude that silver still has a little ways to go before reaching the extraordinarily bullish levels of late December. However, you must keep in mind that silver is still $3 higher in price than it was back then, too. Therefore, these silver CoT numbers are perfectly acceptable to those (like me) who are searching for a bottom in the here and now.
In conclusion, I am very, very excited for next week and the weeks ahead. Combining the CoTs with the current OI, then adding in the recent backwardation and and the looks of the charts and other technicals and you get a picture that looks, smells and feels like a significant bottom and "markets" that are poised to rebound very soon.

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Next up are two, very interesting weekly charts. As we search for a bottom, note first that gold actually had an UP week last week. Sure didn't feel like it, though. Also, notice that silver has had 4 straight DOWN weeks. While I admit that my eyesight is experiencing some middle-age "issues", I challenge everyone to inspect the weekly silver chart and find a period over the last 5 years where silver has experienced 5, consecutive DOWN weeks. Personally, I don't see one. This makes it seem like history is on our side next week.

Lastly, my friend "Big Red" from Virginia sent me this link earlier this week and I thought I would post it here to begin a discussion. Though, for me, the author lays a bit too much blame at the feet of the O'bottom Regime, he nonetheless does a fine job of detailing the precariousness by which freedom currently hangs. He also correctly identifies the problem as being ultimately caused by all politicians, of both parties. Other than that, it's just some light and happy, weekend reading. <sarc>

OUR COLD CIVIL WAR
By Benjamin Smith
On the heels of NDAA, ObamaCare, Stimulus, Son of Stimulus, Patriot Act, takeover of auto, energy, media and movie industries, and the relentless implementation of Agenda 21... the Obama regime running our country into the ground has issued an updated Executive Order which suggests the probability of impending MARTIAL LAW.
We are left to scratch our heads and ask……… Why now?
The only possible answer is…
America is in fact, right now, in the vicious throes of a Cold Civil War.
Cold as in non-violent and Civil as in nationwide; an attempt to force a new government-controlled ideology upon an unwilling public
.... Read more: https://www.theospark.net/2012/03/our-cold-civil-war.html

That's all for this week. Let's hope and prepare for a turnaround next week, particularly once gold option expiry is behind us. See you Monday. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  228 Comments

Pegasus
Mar 25, 2012 - 12:28am

El Gordo

This is not carnage BS. It is based on scientific fact that is a very real possibility right now. After all, isn't this site supposed to be about being prepared? You can bury your head in the sand if you like, me, I just like to know what's coming down.

For additional info on this, read National Geographics:

What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today? https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun...

So sorry el Gordo if it bugs you.

Swift Boat Vet Dr G
Mar 25, 2012 - 1:36am

Costco TP ----Hey Doc

I bought some yesterday and noticed the same thing. The old price for 36 was $18 and change. The new 30 count package was $14 and change. Sorry I don't remember the exact change.

Swifty

CaribSurfKing
Mar 25, 2012 - 2:14am

House gets buzzed by a drone once a week now...

...Well I water the plants out front every other night and see it around 11pm - midnight once every 3-4 times a week ( 25 miles east of Atlanta ). Tonight, it was west to east and seemed to be going somewhere, not the usual circling!

This did not happen at all a year ago!

Mar 25, 2012 - 2:26am

@Baikalic re: options expiration

The metals are, as a rule, generally slammed down just before or at OpEx -- though perhaps a more accurate way to put it is that OpEx is accompanied by unusually violent price swings. Jesse's Cafe Americain has a running, detailed history of this, his most recent set of charts:

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/03/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_23.html

The reason: the parties who sell the options also own the market, and thus would be awfully negligent, nay, irresponsible of them NOT to make sure that the possible maximum of these options a) expire worthless, or b) are sold BACK to them at pennies on the dollar before ending up ITM. This is just MHO, of course.

BTW, I love your perspective on "in a geologically rapid timeframe"...

ActionFive
Mar 25, 2012 - 2:32am

Next week

Do I see this right?

Future expiration/1st notice area/Treasury auctions/end of month/end of quarter?

Silver Rock
Mar 25, 2012 - 4:14am

New Precious Metal Forum, Gold Silver Forum !!!!!!!!!!!

Hi All,

TF Metals is always going to be the best, but I see that a new forum has started up if anybody cares.

Gold Silver Forum

https://forum.goldsilverforum.net/

RuNuts
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:15am

We Can't Make it Here Anymore

James McMurtry "We can't make it here"

We'll work for food
We'll die for oil
We'll kill for power and to us the spoils
The billionaires get to pay less tax
The working poor get to fall through the cracks
Let 'em eat jellybeans let 'em eat cake
Let 'em eat sh$%, whatever it takes
They can join the Air Force, or join the Corps
If they can't make it here anymore

And that's how it is
That's what we got
If the president wants to admit it or not
You can read it in the paper
Read it on the wall
Hear it on the wind
If you're listening at all
Get out of that limo
Look us in the eye
Call us on the cell phone
Tell us all why

Be Prepared
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:45am
Be Prepared
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:50am
ClinkinKY
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:53am

Not judging guilt or innocence...

...unlike a certain sitting president (I prefer to wait until the EVIDENCE is presented). Just pointing out how the MSM presents the case:

Pictures used in every article I've seen:

Pictures dug up by someone else:

If it turns out that Mr. Zimmerman took this young man's life "in cold blood" then he should face the consequences". My only reason for this post is to point out the agenda of the MSM, the President, the race-baiters Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton and the "social justice" groups like New Black Panthers. Moderator: If this post is too inflammatory in your opinion please delete.

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