Saturday Gold and Silver Summary

228
107
Sat, Mar 24, 2012 - 12:31pm

I've found a couple of things for your weekend, so I thought it best to start this new thread. Mainly, I had to make sure that everyone saw the latest OI numbers and CoT report.

First of all, you don't have to wait for me. If you want to get this info for yourself, just save these links to your "favorites". The daily OI numbers are usually released by about 2:30 p.m. EDT and the CoTs come out every Friday at around 3:00 p.m. EDT.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements_futures.html

https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1332531154.php

Both the OI numbers from yesterday and the CoT were exactly what I was hoping for. I posted comments with analysis into the previous thread but I wanted to ensure that as many of you saw it as possible, so I am copy-and-pasting both comments below. It is important to keep in mind the limitations of these reports. They are not necessarily forward-looking in that both are already dated by the time they are released. Therefore, they should be treated more like "forensic evidence" of current and past Cartel activity. For example, it is very difficult to use CoT data exclusively to identify potential tops as the capacity to absorb spec longs is nearly unlimited. The Cartels could go to 4:1 net short or 5:1 net short on the backs of Fed-supplied cash and the established practice of fractional bullion banking. That said for 2012 we will, however, use the net short ratios of late February as benchmarks for possible Cartel limitations. As for calling bottoms, the data is more helpful. Bottoms form over a much longer time period than tops and price declines tend to bottom in the general area where Cartel net short ratios reached 2:1.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 2:39pm
Perfect, 100%-predictable OI moves yesterday.
Recall that I began feeling yesterday that the decline we saw yesterday morning was "it", the final low, at least for gold. Gold rallied in the late morning yesterday and closed the Comex down $7.70. I expected the OI to decline marginally as this has been the trend in this "correction". The numbers are in and the OI did decline marginally, falling back under 432,000 and a near double-bottom in OI with Tuesday's number, which coincides with a near double-bottom in price. With the rally today that continues this afternoon, chances are very high that I will be proven correct in this latest "Turd's Bottom" for gold.
Silver also acted as expected yesterday. Recall that, on Tuesday, silver declined $1.12 but total OI surged by over 3,000 contracts. I surmised at the time this was indicative of spec shorts being added at the bottom...shorts that will soon be fleeced by the EE with a sharp move to the upside. I was curious to see if OI rose again yesterday because, as you know, silver declined by $0.88 yesterday on the Comex session. Well, whaddayaknow? Total OI rose by 1,400 contracts yesterday during the near $1 selloff. I have deep faith that this was the final suck-in of extra spec shorts before the bottom, just like 2/28 was the final suck-in of the spec longs before the beatdown. For further evidence, as of yesterday the total silver OI is now 5,500 contracts higher than it was on 3/15/12 yet price is $1.38 lower.
Once again, this helps to complete the bottom picture. Spec longs have been wrung out of gold as total OI has now "double-bottomed" below 431,000...an OI level we last saw on Valentine's Day when price was $1718. Spec longs have been driven out of silver, too, and importantly, fresh spec shorts have now been driven in as total silver is already 5,500 contracts off of its "correction lows".

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 3:21pm.
WOW WOW WOW!!! I LOVE THE CoT REPORT!!!
GOLD
Exactly what I was hoping for! The large specs longs shed 15,468 or another 6% while large spec shorts grew by 3,975 or, roughly 11%. Beautiful! Even the small specs got in on the action by punting 4,500 longs while adding 1,600 shorts. The all-important Cartel did exactly what I'd hoped---They added 15,424 long (10%) while covering 10,126 (3%) shorts. This means the net short position of The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel shrunk by over 25,000 contracts during the week where price fell nearly $50! The net short ratio is now almost exactly 2:1, down from the 2.7:1 that it reached on 2/28 and is actually a shade lower than where it was on 12/27 when price was $1598. A very, very bullish picture!
SILVER
Like gold, almost perfect! First of all, remember that total OI barely budged over the 3/13-3/20 reporting period, only falling by about 300 contracts while price fell by nearly $2. Ideally, in this situation the large spec longs would be resolute while, at the same time, the EE shrunk their net short position. Additionally, I had hoped that the bulk of the downside price pressure had come from new large and small spec shorts. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED! ​While price fell $2, large spec longs actually added 30 contracts. This is what we mean when we say that "silver is in strong hands"! Another good sign is that large spec shorts surged by 17% and small spec longs punted almost 9%. Perfect!! Then...the all-important Evil Empire. The Forces of Darkness added 2,281 longs (+6.45%) while covering 1,224 shorts (1.7%). This is a net change in the overall short position of 3,500 contracts (-9.84%) and brings the net short ratio down to 1.85:1. Again, for reference, the EE net short ratio on 2/28 was 2.32:1 and, on 12/27/11 it was a scant 1.34:1. From a purely CoT perspective, you might conclude that silver still has a little ways to go before reaching the extraordinarily bullish levels of late December. However, you must keep in mind that silver is still $3 higher in price than it was back then, too. Therefore, these silver CoT numbers are perfectly acceptable to those (like me) who are searching for a bottom in the here and now.
In conclusion, I am very, very excited for next week and the weeks ahead. Combining the CoTs with the current OI, then adding in the recent backwardation and and the looks of the charts and other technicals and you get a picture that looks, smells and feels like a significant bottom and "markets" that are poised to rebound very soon.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Next up are two, very interesting weekly charts. As we search for a bottom, note first that gold actually had an UP week last week. Sure didn't feel like it, though. Also, notice that silver has had 4 straight DOWN weeks. While I admit that my eyesight is experiencing some middle-age "issues", I challenge everyone to inspect the weekly silver chart and find a period over the last 5 years where silver has experienced 5, consecutive DOWN weeks. Personally, I don't see one. This makes it seem like history is on our side next week.

paper_3-24gold.jpgpaper_3-24silv.jpg

Lastly, my friend "Big Red" from Virginia sent me this link earlier this week and I thought I would post it here to begin a discussion. Though, for me, the author lays a bit too much blame at the feet of the O'bottom Regime, he nonetheless does a fine job of detailing the precariousness by which freedom currently hangs. He also correctly identifies the problem as being ultimately caused by all politicians, of both parties. Other than that, it's just some light and happy, weekend reading. <sarc>

OUR COLD CIVIL WAR
By Benjamin Smith
On the heels of NDAA, ObamaCare, Stimulus, Son of Stimulus, Patriot Act, takeover of auto, energy, media and movie industries, and the relentless implementation of Agenda 21... the Obama regime running our country into the ground has issued an updated Executive Order which suggests the probability of impending MARTIAL LAW.
We are left to scratch our heads and ask……… Why now?
The only possible answer is…
America is in fact, right now, in the vicious throes of a Cold Civil War.
Cold as in non-violent and Civil as in nationwide; an attempt to force a new government-controlled ideology upon an unwilling public
.... Read more: https://www.theospark.net/2012/03/our-cold-civil-war.html

That's all for this week. Let's hope and prepare for a turnaround next week, particularly once gold option expiry is behind us. See you Monday. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  228 Comments

Be Prepared
Mar 26, 2012 - 7:15am
Number 47
Mar 26, 2012 - 7:54am

Corzines perp walk

Looks like it is just a regular free man walk now.

Unspecified employee sent other email covering his ass. Lucky guy.

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/e-mail-to-corzine-said-transfer-...


Mar 26, 2012 - 8:06am

I Run

That last one was too much. I deleted it.

Time to dial it back in folks. The week is underway.

I Run Bartertown
Mar 26, 2012 - 8:12am

Your house, TF...

But, it was my first photoshop creation everfrown.

and lootie never goes out of style...but I get it...yes.

Thanks again for all you do here.

I Run Bartertown
Mar 26, 2012 - 8:18am

Mar 26, 2012 - 8:26am

I have a sick kid (maybe two)

Heading to the pediatrician this morning so I'll be unable to post anything for a while.

Looks like The Bernank noticed the long-term rates. Hmmm. Anyway, watch how gold handles the 1680 area. The 200-day MA and some horizontal resistance is there. Perhaps (let's hope) it will burst right through this morning. Keep your fingers crossed.

If 1680 is bested, expect the Cartel to attempt to keep gold under 1700 ahead of option expiry.

tpbeta
Mar 26, 2012 - 8:26am

Bernanke speaks

..amd the PMs react. Surely the only correlation that matters in these strange times.

Oh except Blythe, banging the close.

Eric Original
Mar 26, 2012 - 8:28am

Nice pop in the metals on the

Nice pop in the metals on the Bernank. Looks like the Cartel positioned themselves just right. Did you? yes

Tube
Mar 26, 2012 - 8:28am

POW!

Gold and silver just popped...

achmachat
Mar 26, 2012 - 8:35am

sometimes....

sometimes it's easy to buy the smaller dips! For example, one of the dealers I buy my maples and philharmonics from, only updates the prices every hour.

This means that every single time that there is a bigger spike upwards, I get to buy on the small dip :-)

(like right now! ha!)

boatman
Mar 26, 2012 - 8:48am

if Bill Gross is right

and i think he is.....n benny says more QE will come in april 24 FED meeting

blowing by 1800 will be a forgone conclusion.

buy the hint...........consolidate on the fact.

Excalibur
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:00am

Best wishes to the turdettes

Turd, hope nothing too serious and they get well soon.

Airgead
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:01am

Another leg down for the USD versus EUR?

Funny, Just about at waking this morning I saw a graph of the EUR gaining on the USD in two legs.

I couldn't believe my eyes that the EUR was down when I checked, but a few hours later it went up: the first leg I suppose.

Just wait and see if the second leg up will arrive.

I had two times before a vision like that seeing a major gain in silver (about 5% in a day) both took place within 48 hours of the vision.

sixdollarsilver
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:05am

pops and weasles

for general consumption

bred by kiwis, claimed by aussies, inauspiciously died on the way to america from mexico

just look at those angles...

ClinkinKY sixdollarsilver
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:09am

@ sixdollarsilver

Phar Lap.

ClinkinKY
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:13am

FYI (If you need it)

To keep Facebook, Google and Twitter from tracking you at other sites. https://disconnect.me/ Background info at https://techcrunch.com/2012/03/22/disconnect-me-raise/ And it's free.

sixdollarsilver
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:20am

chur clinkin

for 10 bonus points...

what is the famous eggy dessert also created by kiwis and claimed by aussies?

opticsguy
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:22am

if you use Firefox

and you have Better Privacy, NoScript, Adblock, and Web of Trust installed, you should be in pretty good shape. Of course, use private browsing when necessary.

achmachat
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:24am

@sixdollarsilver

pavlova, of course!

ClinkinKY sixdollarsilver
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:26am

@ sixdollarsilver

I know horses. Desserts, not so much:)

usk
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:28am

McHugh is subcription...no

McHugh is subcription...no link
McHugh's Weekend Market Update, March 24th: Fabulous Trade Opportunity Close at Hand

I am still working on this weekend's expanded market U.S. Newsletter, but I just finished the Mining Stocks and Precious Metals section and I am very excited about a terrific trading opportunity that should be very profitable for us that should arrive over the next few weeks. Mining Stocks and precious metals are setting up now for a powerful and significant buy signal that should result in a significant multi-week, perhaps even multi-month rally. We will be opening new Call Options positions in ETFs that represent Mining Stocks, Gold, and Silver once we get new buy signals in our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator and HUI 30 Day Stochastic.
 This weekend's report shows historic charts of the HUI 30 Day Stochastic's signals correlated to resultant price moves. These charts will show you there is excellent correlation, especially when those signals come from extreme oversold (in the case of buys) and extreme overbought (in the case of sells) levels. We are there now (Oversold 30 Day Stochastic, among other buy set-up conditions). The set up is here now for a wonderful trade opportunity. This will likely be the trade of the year, or at least the best trade of the first six months of the year (as we believe there will be two incredible trade opportunities in stocks over the rest of the year, one using calls in a few months, the other puts later in 2012). These trades should be home run trades. 

So I urge you to study this weekend's Mining and precious metals charts and narratives, and get prepared now, get your powder ready, as some amazing trades are about to begin. This is not hype. Markets have been in an awful trading environment over the past 6 months, as even the large rally since October in stocks was a very low momentum rally, not a trader's best opportunity. But a high momentum trading environment in Mining Stocks and precious metals should start within a few weeks. A medium momentum stocks trade to play a decline should arrive in a few weeks, but a strong upside momentum stock trade should arrive later, perhaps in May or June that we plan to play aggressively. Another powerful momentum stock market trading environment should arrive later in 2012 after the last rally leg finishes in stocks.

indosil
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:32am
abguy4
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:34am

@pbfurn........Cold Civil War

Ok,

Here's how you expand or enlarge the text on (almost) any web page.

Simply go to the page.

Hold down the "Shift" key - it's near the left corner of the keyboard.

While holding "Shift" - tap the (+) Key one or more times, until the text is large enuf

The (+) key is up there in the top row, right corner.

Then hold "Shift" and hold the (-) key, to make it all small again.

Hold over
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:36am
Big Z abguy4
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:50am

for me it's the Ctrt key not

for me it's the Ctrt key not the Shift

Velocity
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:53am

Mr T

Best Wishes the Little Ones are ok

Number 47
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:53am

ctrl for me too

Handy though. Wasn't aware of that.

ClinkinKY
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:54am

They're not even subtle about it anymore.

Obama wants to build $5 billion train to nowhere for Reid supporters

March 26, 2012 05:29

The $5 billion would create about 722 permanent jobs at almost $7 million per job but make millions for Harry Reid campaign donors.

This is another example of how your money is being blown to buy votes and laundered into Democrat campaigns.

boatman
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:55am
Velocity zilverreiger
Mar 26, 2012 - 9:57am

@ zilverreiger

Couldn''t agree more Ron Paul won't save anyone... Govt is rigged to suck, that's the truth

Our worst error is to think someone else will save us, or wants to, or we just vote and they'll do all the work for us

If you want a vote that works, Stop Paying Your Taxes ...a Tax Revolt hits the suckers where it hurts. Simple and effective

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