Saturday Gold and Silver Summary

228
107
Sat, Mar 24, 2012 - 12:31pm

I've found a couple of things for your weekend, so I thought it best to start this new thread. Mainly, I had to make sure that everyone saw the latest OI numbers and CoT report.

First of all, you don't have to wait for me. If you want to get this info for yourself, just save these links to your "favorites". The daily OI numbers are usually released by about 2:30 p.m. EDT and the CoTs come out every Friday at around 3:00 p.m. EDT.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements_futures.html

https://news.goldseek.com/COT/1332531154.php

Both the OI numbers from yesterday and the CoT were exactly what I was hoping for. I posted comments with analysis into the previous thread but I wanted to ensure that as many of you saw it as possible, so I am copy-and-pasting both comments below. It is important to keep in mind the limitations of these reports. They are not necessarily forward-looking in that both are already dated by the time they are released. Therefore, they should be treated more like "forensic evidence" of current and past Cartel activity. For example, it is very difficult to use CoT data exclusively to identify potential tops as the capacity to absorb spec longs is nearly unlimited. The Cartels could go to 4:1 net short or 5:1 net short on the backs of Fed-supplied cash and the established practice of fractional bullion banking. That said for 2012 we will, however, use the net short ratios of late February as benchmarks for possible Cartel limitations. As for calling bottoms, the data is more helpful. Bottoms form over a much longer time period than tops and price declines tend to bottom in the general area where Cartel net short ratios reached 2:1.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 2:39pm
Perfect, 100%-predictable OI moves yesterday.
Recall that I began feeling yesterday that the decline we saw yesterday morning was "it", the final low, at least for gold. Gold rallied in the late morning yesterday and closed the Comex down $7.70. I expected the OI to decline marginally as this has been the trend in this "correction". The numbers are in and the OI did decline marginally, falling back under 432,000 and a near double-bottom in OI with Tuesday's number, which coincides with a near double-bottom in price. With the rally today that continues this afternoon, chances are very high that I will be proven correct in this latest "Turd's Bottom" for gold.
Silver also acted as expected yesterday. Recall that, on Tuesday, silver declined $1.12 but total OI surged by over 3,000 contracts. I surmised at the time this was indicative of spec shorts being added at the bottom...shorts that will soon be fleeced by the EE with a sharp move to the upside. I was curious to see if OI rose again yesterday because, as you know, silver declined by $0.88 yesterday on the Comex session. Well, whaddayaknow? Total OI rose by 1,400 contracts yesterday during the near $1 selloff. I have deep faith that this was the final suck-in of extra spec shorts before the bottom, just like 2/28 was the final suck-in of the spec longs before the beatdown. For further evidence, as of yesterday the total silver OI is now 5,500 contracts higher than it was on 3/15/12 yet price is $1.38 lower.
Once again, this helps to complete the bottom picture. Spec longs have been wrung out of gold as total OI has now "double-bottomed" below 431,000...an OI level we last saw on Valentine's Day when price was $1718. Spec longs have been driven out of silver, too, and importantly, fresh spec shorts have now been driven in as total silver is already 5,500 contracts off of its "correction lows".

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 3:21pm.
WOW WOW WOW!!! I LOVE THE CoT REPORT!!!
GOLD
Exactly what I was hoping for! The large specs longs shed 15,468 or another 6% while large spec shorts grew by 3,975 or, roughly 11%. Beautiful! Even the small specs got in on the action by punting 4,500 longs while adding 1,600 shorts. The all-important Cartel did exactly what I'd hoped---They added 15,424 long (10%) while covering 10,126 (3%) shorts. This means the net short position of The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel shrunk by over 25,000 contracts during the week where price fell nearly $50! The net short ratio is now almost exactly 2:1, down from the 2.7:1 that it reached on 2/28 and is actually a shade lower than where it was on 12/27 when price was $1598. A very, very bullish picture!
SILVER
Like gold, almost perfect! First of all, remember that total OI barely budged over the 3/13-3/20 reporting period, only falling by about 300 contracts while price fell by nearly $2. Ideally, in this situation the large spec longs would be resolute while, at the same time, the EE shrunk their net short position. Additionally, I had hoped that the bulk of the downside price pressure had come from new large and small spec shorts. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED! ​While price fell $2, large spec longs actually added 30 contracts. This is what we mean when we say that "silver is in strong hands"! Another good sign is that large spec shorts surged by 17% and small spec longs punted almost 9%. Perfect!! Then...the all-important Evil Empire. The Forces of Darkness added 2,281 longs (+6.45%) while covering 1,224 shorts (1.7%). This is a net change in the overall short position of 3,500 contracts (-9.84%) and brings the net short ratio down to 1.85:1. Again, for reference, the EE net short ratio on 2/28 was 2.32:1 and, on 12/27/11 it was a scant 1.34:1. From a purely CoT perspective, you might conclude that silver still has a little ways to go before reaching the extraordinarily bullish levels of late December. However, you must keep in mind that silver is still $3 higher in price than it was back then, too. Therefore, these silver CoT numbers are perfectly acceptable to those (like me) who are searching for a bottom in the here and now.
In conclusion, I am very, very excited for next week and the weeks ahead. Combining the CoTs with the current OI, then adding in the recent backwardation and and the looks of the charts and other technicals and you get a picture that looks, smells and feels like a significant bottom and "markets" that are poised to rebound very soon.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Next up are two, very interesting weekly charts. As we search for a bottom, note first that gold actually had an UP week last week. Sure didn't feel like it, though. Also, notice that silver has had 4 straight DOWN weeks. While I admit that my eyesight is experiencing some middle-age "issues", I challenge everyone to inspect the weekly silver chart and find a period over the last 5 years where silver has experienced 5, consecutive DOWN weeks. Personally, I don't see one. This makes it seem like history is on our side next week.

Lastly, my friend "Big Red" from Virginia sent me this link earlier this week and I thought I would post it here to begin a discussion. Though, for me, the author lays a bit too much blame at the feet of the O'bottom Regime, he nonetheless does a fine job of detailing the precariousness by which freedom currently hangs. He also correctly identifies the problem as being ultimately caused by all politicians, of both parties. Other than that, it's just some light and happy, weekend reading. <sarc>

OUR COLD CIVIL WAR
By Benjamin Smith
On the heels of NDAA, ObamaCare, Stimulus, Son of Stimulus, Patriot Act, takeover of auto, energy, media and movie industries, and the relentless implementation of Agenda 21... the Obama regime running our country into the ground has issued an updated Executive Order which suggests the probability of impending MARTIAL LAW.
We are left to scratch our heads and ask……… Why now?
The only possible answer is…
America is in fact, right now, in the vicious throes of a Cold Civil War.
Cold as in non-violent and Civil as in nationwide; an attempt to force a new government-controlled ideology upon an unwilling public
.... Read more: https://www.theospark.net/2012/03/our-cold-civil-war.html

That's all for this week. Let's hope and prepare for a turnaround next week, particularly once gold option expiry is behind us. See you Monday. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  228 Comments

cpnscarlet
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:16pm

Please Bear with Me for a Moment

It's still the weekend, so I ask your indulgence as I share a sadness. You baby-boomers and ex-hippies will sympathize for sure, even though I'm not one of your number. I just found out that Peter Bergman of The Firesign Theatre passed away on 3/9 at 72 from complications due to leukemia. Pete gave me years and years of laughter and it is a sad time for me and the few die-hard Fireheads who remain. This may be meaningless to many of you, but some will remember those heady days listening to Radio Free Oz on KPFK or albums like "Waiting for the Electrician or Someone Like Him".

Peter Bergman 1939-2012

Pete and I would probably have agreed on little politically or spiritually, but I am in his debt for all the laughter he provided. A wonderful jester with a rapier wit....

Xeno
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:19pm

Unsubstantiated

I ran across the following regarding our favorite silver trader. It kind of defends Corzine and is as far as I can tell unsubstantiated so take with how ever many grains of salt or silver.

JP Morgan-MF Global-Euro Gate Escalates

UNITED STATES of America - It can now be reported that the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking has new evidence showing that JP Morgan had a $200 million overdraft aka a second margin call on the London LIFFE Exchange three days before the MF Global bankruptcy fiasco was triggered.

The second margin call (the first margin call was four days earlier for $175 million) dealt with cross-collateralized, compounded naked euro currency put options that were written by JP Morgan with the transactions being placed through the CME Group and the aforementioned London LIFFE Exchange.

The fact that two margin calls were issued in a span of one week against JP Morgan is clearly a game changer.

The first margin call aka the overdraft was triggered when the JP Morgan SWIFT wire transfer (to pay for their derivative trades) was rejected by the London LIFFE Exchange after the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank refused to honor the JP Morgan float aka line of credit.

https://www.myspace.com/tom_heneghan_intel/blog/545493462

Oh yeah, we're in a swirl alright. My head's in Mississippi and there are naked cowgirls floating across the ceiling.

dudestacker
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:24pm

@RuNuts

Well, you asked the question first, so maybe I am Nuts but I loved the video. Thanks!

ink
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:25pm

Off to a good start

We're off to a good start in the asian market. Spot gold currently trading at 1667, silver 32.33.

ClinkinKY cpnscarlet
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:25pm

@ cpnscarlet re:Peter Bergman

Pete and I would probably have agreed on little politically or spiritually, but I am in his debt for all the laughter he provided.

As a current boomer and former hippie (yeah, hard to believe huh), I agree on both counts.

qqqqtrader
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:26pm
Turdle GG
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:29pm

Positive start to the week

Only 30 minutes into the trading week, but something different so far: gold is up $6 while EUR/USD little changed.

This is a departure from recent Asian hours trading, where gold has followed EUR/USD.

$1,666 has been a resistance level recently. Now at $1,667.

cpnscarlet RRJJ
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:30pm

@RRJJ  - Nicole Foss (AKA

@RRJJ - Nicole Foss (AKA stoneleigh) has held this contrary view for quite some time. Anyone who reads her commentaries probably agrees with me that she is too smart to be dismissed. However, I don't think she is right. Remember Hume Cronin in "Rollover" - "Capital has a mind of its own. It's like a force of nature". In some way, IMHO, capital will find its way into the economy. It will refuse to be held in a pen in some bank's vault or ledger for very long. Someday the bulls will stampede and it will go. I believe the key is that the banks will get tired of the .25% they are being paid by the Fed to lock up their funds and will go after the 4, 5,...8% they can get from borrowers - even the ones with bad credit. Greed will make them loan that money out into the economy. And even if the effect is the release of pent-up demand and resulting production, the result will still be inflation from the monetary effect of too many dollars chasing too few goods before production can ramp up from the dismal state it's in right now. Once that cycle starts, Goodnight Irene.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

shaz
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:36pm

saw a drone too, TP and ice cream woes

Saw a drone for the first time early evening yesterday while cleaning up the garden area for spring

Glad i'v hedged my disposable paper assets, knew they were gonna get smaller soon

been pissed off about the ice cream for over a year now

keeping up appearances

until election time?

grr

ammo up from my visit to the local gun show yesterday

grr grr

tyberious
Mar 25, 2012 - 6:38pm

Re:Nicole Foss

Is not the text book definition of inflation an increase in the velocity of money and money supply. If that is the case we have seen one, once the dollar is no longer the reserve currency then we will have both.

Deflation requires a reduction in money supply, not going to happen, not just reduction in assets prices, may happen while commodities rise.

tyberious
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:05pm

Doug Casey:

"It's a Dead-Man-Walking Economy"

Doug:The Obama administration, just like the Baby Bush administration before it – there really is no great difference between the Evil Party and the Stupid Party – and its minions in the US and its cronies around the world, stubbornly stick to the bankrupt idea that economic growth is driven by consumption. This is confusing cause and effect. Healthy consumption follows profitable production in excess of consumption, resulting in savings – accumulated capital – that can either be spent without harm or invested in future growth.

Consumption doesn't cause an economy to grow at all. To paraphrase: "It's productivity that creates wealth, stupid!"

Doug: Perhaps, but let's take a closer look. I advocate the Greek government defaulting, overtly and immediately, on 100% of its debt, for several reasons. First, it would punish those who lent it money to do all the stupid and destructive things it's done. Second, it would ensure that the Greek government wouldn't be able to borrow again for a very long time. Third, it would liberate young and yet unborn Greeks, who are being turned into serfs by all that debt. It would also mean that most European banks would fail. Tough luck for those who relied on them. When new banks are established, it will serve as a lesson to people to be more careful about where they put their capital.

Anyway, it would be much less of a catastrophe than the way we're currently heading.

Here in the US, the twelve-month fiscal deficit is still over $1.2 trillion, an extreme situation that is gutting the value of the dollar, because it's mostly financed by the Fed buying US debt. It's temporarily expanded the eye of the storm we're in, but it's done nothing to dissipate the storm itself. Their easy-money policies may have bought them a little more time, but they will only make it worse when we do exit the eye of the storm.

There's a third definition of a depression that I use: a depression is the end phenomenon of an inflation-caused business cycle. Inflation is the sole cause of business cycles, and inflation is caused by governments and their central banks printing money. The government – the state – is 100% responsible for society's economic problems. But it arrogantly represents itself as the cure. And people believe it. There's no hope until the psychology of the average person changes.

Fred Hayek
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:29pm

@RRJJ

I have a ton of respect for Nicole Foss. She used to, maybe still does, post at a site called Automatic Earth under the nom de plume of "Stoneleigh". But I disagree with the thesis that deflation will be the primary characteristic of upcoming economic conditions. At 10:45 in the video, she says that they won't simply print actual money because the bond market won't stand for that. But . . . what bond market? The Fed IS the bond market right now. That's where I think her particular permutation of the deflation thesis is off the mark. Although, to give her credit, she goes on to acknowledge that the central banks will definitely respond to strong deflation with money printing. In a way, her position is not that far from the inflationist position. Maybe the difference is more a matter of timing in the central bank response than anything else.

ClinkinKY RuNuts
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:42pm

@ RuNuts- re: McMurtry Video

My last post on this subject: Disclaimer---I'm not saying EVERY CEO or "worker" took the same path, just trying to point out the inconsistencies in your argument.

McMurtry states that a CEO would have trouble making ends meet on minimum wage, I believe I'd call that fact. The point being insinuated, that the line between the "lucky" & not so "lucky" is growing thinner every day.

So EVERY CEO, who probably spent numerous years getting a Graduate degree and moving his family around the country to land a good paying job is "just lucky"?

Now, go look a disabled vet or a farmer that lost his ass in the MFGlobal fiasco in the eye... tell them face to face "too bad".

You like to use "straw man" arguments don't you?

What you suggest smacks of some kind of crazy socialism. Buzzword much? AND You got 7 effing thumbs up for misstating what the song was about? SMH...

Hey, you used the buzzword.

The song is about America losing her production capabilities, jobs, homes and values, it's about the middle class being sucked dry in circumstances in which they had no say or control.. and yes, it's about people like you who look at those who have been robbed of the American dream and don't give a shit so long as you have yours.

See, you "heard" a lot more in his lyrics than I did. And no, I DON'T "have mine". I'm a working stiff like the majority of the people in this country. I've robbed no one and I expect no one to rob me, to make us all equal.

Rant off.

Be Prepared
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:51pm

Inflation is Real.... Just look at Oreo Cookies... :-)

Nabisco's Oreo cookies We Americans love our Oreos!

[1913] 10-25 cents/no size [1922] 32 cents/lb [1931] 32-35 cents/lb [1932] 25 cents/lb [1934] 27 cents/lb [1936] 10 cents/pkg [1948] 15 cents/4.5 oz [1949] 14 cents/4.25 oz [1950] 34 cents/11 oz [1952] 35 cents/11 oz [1953] 23 cents/7.25 oz [1954] 21 cents/7.25 oz [1955] 39 cents/11.75 oz [1956] 33 cents/11.75 oz [1957] 35 cents/12.75 oz [1958] 33 cents/11.75 oz [1959] 37 cents/11.75 oz [1960] 45 cents/lb [1961] 45 cents/lb [1962] 49 cents/lb [1963] 45 cents/lb [1964] 39 cents/lb [1965] 43 cents/lb [1966] 43 cents/lb [1967] 49 cents/lb [1968] 45 cents/lb [1969] 51 cents/lb [1970] 45 cents/15 oz [1971] 55 cents/15 oz [1972] 49 cents/lb [1973] 49 cents/15 oz [1974] 55 cents/15 oz [1975] 89 cents/15 oz [1976] 99 cents/19 oz [1977] 89 cents/15 oz [1978] 79 cents/15 oz [1979] 1.05/15 oz [1980] 99 cents/15 oz [1981] 1.69/19 oz [1982] 1.65/19 oz [1983] 1.85/19 oz [1984] 1.79/20 oz [1985] 2.17/19 oz [1986] 1.69/20 oz [1987] 1.99/20 oz [1988] 2.49/20 oz [1989] 2.49/20 oz [1990] 2.69/lb [1991] 2.39/lb [1992] 1.99/20 oz [1993] 1.19/5.8 oz [1994] 2.49/20 oz [1995] 1.09/4.8 oz [2004] 2.99/lb [2008] 4.29/18 oz [2012] 4.59/15.5oz

SOURCES: food ads published in major U.S. newspapers included in ProQuest's Historic Newspaper database, 2000+ recent prices from FoodTown, Cedar Knolls NJ.


Mar 25, 2012 - 8:06pm

Watch closely

This could provide the spark...

https://debka.com/article/21860/

cpnscarlet
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:07pm

Oreo Gold

I look at those prices and think "Gold should be 3200 easy".

¤
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:11pm

444 ~ Box of Rain

BV Box of Rain
LaMachinna Dyna mo hum
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:17pm

Good Doctor

I know this "ain't" cool, but, man, just can't help it. ((Hugs)) to you! Thanks for the excellent post.

Maryann
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:23pm

Oreos...

Just price matched several packages at WM for $2.50 each, of course the key is the ever decreasing size...as you document, BP! Must have stockpiling priorities, though, right?

That summit TF mentions, what is the objective? I see this is a regular meeting, but what is the purpose? It is that important to take such big security risks?

ClinkinKY TF
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:28pm

@ TF re: Watch Closely

With all due respect TF, your "spark" may be correct globally. I believe the "spark" nationally has already been set in motion:

Saturday Night Card Game (What happens when Zimmerman is found “not guilty”?)

Posted by William A. Jacobson Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 5:35pm 183 25

George Zimmerman has been tried and convicted in the media and public opinion for the shooting of Trayvon Martin, with the case almost uniformly being portrayed as racially motivated, with the wearing of a hoody by a young black male as the symbol.

Violence is in the air.

Already Louis Farrakan has threatened “retaliation,” and the New Black Panther Party has passed out “Wanted dead or alive” posters for Zimmerman and is offering a $10,000 bounty.

A threat has been made on the Sanford Police Chief.

Spike Lee, most famous for his movie about racial tensions spilling into violence, is helping spread Zimmerman’s home address.

Al Sharpton, who has a sordid history of capitalizing on racial controversies such as this, is leading mass rallies. Jesse Jackson claims that blacks are “under attack.”

Democratic politicians and pundits have joined the crowd, with Karen Finney on MSNBC blaming Rush Limbaugh and Republican candidates; Charles Pierce in Esquire blaming a Republican-induced war on children; former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm photographed wearing a hoody; and Debbie Wasserman Shultz using the case to demand repeal of Florida’s stand your ground law. And many, many more.

Even Obama has framed the case in racial terms, saying that if he had a son, he would look like Trayvon, which has thrust the issue into presidential politics as Newt pushed back on Obama’s racial narrative of the case.

Zimmerman, not surprisingly, is in hiding and has not returned to work, where his employer fears for the safety of fellow employees.

Read more:https://legalinsurrection.com/2012/03/saturday-night-card-game-what-happens-when-zimmerman-is-found-not-guilty/

Monedas
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:39pm

Der Klinkinmeister of Comic Wars Fame !

Klink ! Have you noticed the parabolic, inflationary rise in "Ignore User" threats ? McMurtry is just a Capitalist.....cashing in on human misery ! That's his right ! Calling him on it is my right ! Nothing to get all sanctimonius about when another Dylan "Wanna be" wants to make a buck ! It's a pretty standard, protest song template in a whiny presentation ! Big deal not ! Monedas 2012 Wanted: Used frequency meter to test resonance of coins ! I want to publish Monedas' Coin Resonance Guide !

Fred Hayek
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:47pm

@ Be Prepared re: the price of Oreo cookies.

There's your Federal Reserve adherence to the mandate of "stable" prices for ya!

El Gordo
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:04pm

Glad we've got a uniter and not a divider

Election season is in the air, and this Zimmerman deal is merely a warm up to the main eventsa as our "uniter not a divider" CIC creates a fire storm and then steps in at the last minute to tap down the crisis. I'm sure that his cadre of race baiters were waiting for the perfect storm to come along to stage their "outrage" but apparently the clock was running out so they had to settle for a Hispanic (also technically Caucasian as far as race is concerned) since they couldn't come up with someone lilly white to "protest." If Mr. Zimmerman is criminally liable for his acts, throw the book at him.

The white trash that killed James Bird in a horrific manner in Texas several years ago were tried, convicted, and summarily executed for their crime as they should have been - yet for some, that still wasn't enough. Either laws are recognized and penalties are enforced, or they are not, but mob rule went out of style several decades ago. In fact some who are howling the loudest right now should appreciate that fact.

Our CIC should be ashamed of himself right now, not only for his participation in this disgusting farce but for everything else he has done to bring this once great nation to its knees.

Wizard
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:07pm

Horses can only be led to and

Horses can only be led to and shown the water, One can not make them Drink

To frustrate ones self trying to make make a horse drink even after showing them the water

Begs the question, Who is more foolish the horse, or the person trying to force them to drink.

¤
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:32pm

Save Yourself

Stabbing Westward - Save Yourself
I Run Bartertown
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:34pm

ClinkinKY

I say it's overdue. Let's look at the bullshit chronology and what it says about our society:

1) Black thug shot in the act of smashing some guy's face.

2) Media (who?) - "White racial hatred is to blame"

3) Zimmerman (Jewish Latino who knows that the one all-powerful defense - the one more important than "I didn't do it" or "it was justified" ) pleads the all-important "But, but, I'm NOT White!" defense.

4) Media (who?) changes tune - "Vigilante laws and 'lax' gun laws are to blame!"

5) $10k bounty on a man's head, a massive wave of death threats - but no one is arrested

6) "Sharpton and asst. Baiters out in force - "No Justice - No Peace" as if there was ever peace and there weren't weekly stories like (in US, but not in US media):

Home invasion ends 65 year marriage- husband shot, wife sexually assaulted and beaten to death.


An 85-year-old woman was sexually assaulted and battered to death by a home invader who also shot her 90-year-old husband in the face with a BB gun.

Nancy and Bob Strait, who had celebrated their 65th wedding anniversary in December, were discovered by their daughter at their home in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Both the pensioners were rushed to hospital where Mrs Strait, who was nearly blind, died from her injuries.

Mr Strait, who served in the 101st Airborne Division in World War II, suffered a broken jaw, broken ribs and severe bleeding. He is in a serious condition in hospital.




Police have arrested 20-year-old Tyrone Dale David Woodfork in connection with the case.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...lind-date.html

7) Bartertown prepares - thinking quietly to himself...

"to you 'no peace' means a riot, raping old ladies, and free TV's,

but to me 'no peace' means war."

Your move, Al.

El Gordo Wizard
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:34pm

Help the horse drink

I'll hold his head under the water if you'll suck on his axx.

I Run Bartertown
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:45pm
Eternal Student RRJJ
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:54pm

@RRJJ: Re: Nichole Foss

While Ms. Foss has some things right, keep in mind that she has been stunningly wrong over the past couple of years. Her definition of inflation/deflation includes Credit, which is correct if you want a useful definition of the money supply. But what she has missed has been the fact that Z.1 has actually increased, contrary to her predictions.

This has been the hole in the general Deflationists' camp. And it's not the first time that they have underestimated the power of the Central Banks.

Not that the inflationists have it right either. Both camps have been stunningly wrong over the years. The truth, it seems, appears to be a bit more complicated than the two general camps will admit.

But she does make a number of excellent points. Keep in mind that she's a great believer in Prechter, in spite of massive evidence to the contrary as to the usefulness of his view. That is her style; to avoid discussing any evidence that glaringly points out the flaws in her beliefs.

In the end, you just need to look at her track record. It's about the same as Prechter's, namely, 50%. For example, TAE hasn't been a fan of gold over the years. That's been an expensive blunder. Same with Karl Denninger. He's cost his followers a fortune.

But yes, I agree that deflation in credit has had, and is going to have, a significant impact in the future. Just take what she says with a large grain of salt. Her track record, and general inability to even say she was wrong, should be a clue that you should be wary of what she's pushing. Eventually though, she'll be right. Alas, just like Prechter. Until then, the ride won't be so linear.

rocoach
Mar 25, 2012 - 10:01pm

The other side of the coin

I'm sure some of you guys will figure out a way to blame this on Obama too:

Iraqi woman severely beaten in Calif. home dies

https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/iraqi-woman-severely-beaten-in-calif-home-dies-1.3622047

EL CAJON, Calif. - (AP) -- A woman from Iraq who was found beaten next to a threatening note saying "go back to your country" has died, and police are investigating the possibility of a hate crime.

Hanif Mohebi, the director of the San Diego chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, said Shaima Alawadi was taken off life support Saturday afternoon.

"The family is in shock at the moment. They're still trying to deal with what happened," said Mohebi, who met with family members.

Alawadi, a 32-year-old mother of five, had been hospitalized since her 17-year-old daughter found her unconscious in the dining room of the family's El Cajon home in suburban San Diego on Wednesday, police Lt. Steve Shakowski said.

"A hate crime is one of the possibilities, and we will be looking at that," Lt. Mark Coit said. "We don't want to focus on only one issue and miss something else."

The daughter, Fatima Al Himidi, told KUSI-TV her mother had been beaten on the head repeatedly with a tire iron, and that the note said "go back to your country, you terrorist."

Addressing the camera, the tearful daughter asked: "You took my mother away from me. You took my best friend away from me. Why? Why did you do it?"

Police said the family had found a similar note earlier this month but did not report it to authorities.

Al Himidi told KGTV-TV her mother dismissed the first note, found outside the home, as a child's prank.

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
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TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
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5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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