Saturday Gold and Silver Summary

Sat, Mar 24, 2012 - 12:31pm

I've found a couple of things for your weekend, so I thought it best to start this new thread. Mainly, I had to make sure that everyone saw the latest OI numbers and CoT report.

First of all, you don't have to wait for me. If you want to get this info for yourself, just save these links to your "favorites". The daily OI numbers are usually released by about 2:30 p.m. EDT and the CoTs come out every Friday at around 3:00 p.m. EDT.

Both the OI numbers from yesterday and the CoT were exactly what I was hoping for. I posted comments with analysis into the previous thread but I wanted to ensure that as many of you saw it as possible, so I am copy-and-pasting both comments below. It is important to keep in mind the limitations of these reports. They are not necessarily forward-looking in that both are already dated by the time they are released. Therefore, they should be treated more like "forensic evidence" of current and past Cartel activity. For example, it is very difficult to use CoT data exclusively to identify potential tops as the capacity to absorb spec longs is nearly unlimited. The Cartels could go to 4:1 net short or 5:1 net short on the backs of Fed-supplied cash and the established practice of fractional bullion banking. That said for 2012 we will, however, use the net short ratios of late February as benchmarks for possible Cartel limitations. As for calling bottoms, the data is more helpful. Bottoms form over a much longer time period than tops and price declines tend to bottom in the general area where Cartel net short ratios reached 2:1.


Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 2:39pm
Perfect, 100%-predictable OI moves yesterday.
Recall that I began feeling yesterday that the decline we saw yesterday morning was "it", the final low, at least for gold. Gold rallied in the late morning yesterday and closed the Comex down $7.70. I expected the OI to decline marginally as this has been the trend in this "correction". The numbers are in and the OI did decline marginally, falling back under 432,000 and a near double-bottom in OI with Tuesday's number, which coincides with a near double-bottom in price. With the rally today that continues this afternoon, chances are very high that I will be proven correct in this latest "Turd's Bottom" for gold.
Silver also acted as expected yesterday. Recall that, on Tuesday, silver declined $1.12 but total OI surged by over 3,000 contracts. I surmised at the time this was indicative of spec shorts being added at the bottom...shorts that will soon be fleeced by the EE with a sharp move to the upside. I was curious to see if OI rose again yesterday because, as you know, silver declined by $0.88 yesterday on the Comex session. Well, whaddayaknow? Total OI rose by 1,400 contracts yesterday during the near $1 selloff. I have deep faith that this was the final suck-in of extra spec shorts before the bottom, just like 2/28 was the final suck-in of the spec longs before the beatdown. For further evidence, as of yesterday the total silver OI is now 5,500 contracts higher than it was on 3/15/12 yet price is $1.38 lower.
Once again, this helps to complete the bottom picture. Spec longs have been wrung out of gold as total OI has now "double-bottomed" below 431, OI level we last saw on Valentine's Day when price was $1718. Spec longs have been driven out of silver, too, and importantly, fresh spec shorts have now been driven in as total silver is already 5,500 contracts off of its "correction lows".

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 3:21pm.
Exactly what I was hoping for! The large specs longs shed 15,468 or another 6% while large spec shorts grew by 3,975 or, roughly 11%. Beautiful! Even the small specs got in on the action by punting 4,500 longs while adding 1,600 shorts. The all-important Cartel did exactly what I'd hoped---They added 15,424 long (10%) while covering 10,126 (3%) shorts. This means the net short position of The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel shrunk by over 25,000 contracts during the week where price fell nearly $50! The net short ratio is now almost exactly 2:1, down from the 2.7:1 that it reached on 2/28 and is actually a shade lower than where it was on 12/27 when price was $1598. A very, very bullish picture!
Like gold, almost perfect! First of all, remember that total OI barely budged over the 3/13-3/20 reporting period, only falling by about 300 contracts while price fell by nearly $2. Ideally, in this situation the large spec longs would be resolute while, at the same time, the EE shrunk their net short position. Additionally, I had hoped that the bulk of the downside price pressure had come from new large and small spec shorts. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED! ​While price fell $2, large spec longs actually added 30 contracts. This is what we mean when we say that "silver is in strong hands"! Another good sign is that large spec shorts surged by 17% and small spec longs punted almost 9%. Perfect!! Then...the all-important Evil Empire. The Forces of Darkness added 2,281 longs (+6.45%) while covering 1,224 shorts (1.7%). This is a net change in the overall short position of 3,500 contracts (-9.84%) and brings the net short ratio down to 1.85:1. Again, for reference, the EE net short ratio on 2/28 was 2.32:1 and, on 12/27/11 it was a scant 1.34:1. From a purely CoT perspective, you might conclude that silver still has a little ways to go before reaching the extraordinarily bullish levels of late December. However, you must keep in mind that silver is still $3 higher in price than it was back then, too. Therefore, these silver CoT numbers are perfectly acceptable to those (like me) who are searching for a bottom in the here and now.
In conclusion, I am very, very excited for next week and the weeks ahead. Combining the CoTs with the current OI, then adding in the recent backwardation and and the looks of the charts and other technicals and you get a picture that looks, smells and feels like a significant bottom and "markets" that are poised to rebound very soon.


Next up are two, very interesting weekly charts. As we search for a bottom, note first that gold actually had an UP week last week. Sure didn't feel like it, though. Also, notice that silver has had 4 straight DOWN weeks. While I admit that my eyesight is experiencing some middle-age "issues", I challenge everyone to inspect the weekly silver chart and find a period over the last 5 years where silver has experienced 5, consecutive DOWN weeks. Personally, I don't see one. This makes it seem like history is on our side next week.

Lastly, my friend "Big Red" from Virginia sent me this link earlier this week and I thought I would post it here to begin a discussion. Though, for me, the author lays a bit too much blame at the feet of the O'bottom Regime, he nonetheless does a fine job of detailing the precariousness by which freedom currently hangs. He also correctly identifies the problem as being ultimately caused by all politicians, of both parties. Other than that, it's just some light and happy, weekend reading. <sarc>

By Benjamin Smith
On the heels of NDAA, ObamaCare, Stimulus, Son of Stimulus, Patriot Act, takeover of auto, energy, media and movie industries, and the relentless implementation of Agenda 21... the Obama regime running our country into the ground has issued an updated Executive Order which suggests the probability of impending MARTIAL LAW.
We are left to scratch our heads and ask……… Why now?
The only possible answer is…
America is in fact, right now, in the vicious throes of a Cold Civil War.
Cold as in non-violent and Civil as in nationwide; an attempt to force a new government-controlled ideology upon an unwilling public
.... Read more:

That's all for this week. Let's hope and prepare for a turnaround next week, particularly once gold option expiry is behind us. See you Monday. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 24, 2012 - 4:36pm

You know I was talking to my

You know I was talking to my neighbor about some of this stuff. I don't know if he believes me. I don't know if my other neighbors believe me. I'm not sure if it is ok to be the neighborhood whack job. Even my own Mom said I was an alarmist. I have one friend who thinks I want all of this to happen. He thinks I want to be right. I just don't think people know how to connect the dots. Either that or their head is in *ahem* the sand.

But that Executive Order on 3/17/12 was really a crystallizing moment for me. I really don't know what to think or what will be coming any more. All I know is that the power grab for the Executive branch is getting seriously out of control. It was out of control under Bush Jr. as well - don't get me wrong. And now not being able to protest the government unless it is in a Secret Service approved "zone" with the possibility of being hauled off to a FEMA camp never to be seen again or to be told why you are being held or even allowed to stand trial - is very unnerving.

And I will have you know this was in the last six months that these new laws occurred!!! Six months! Are you outraged! I sure as hell am! What is happening to our civil liberties? Why are not more people standing up? Is it fear? Is it stupidity? Is it apathy? Is it the warm coziness of the Status Quo? This is all very frustrating to watch in slow motion though it seems it is picking up speed. The sad part is I still can't find a job. 2 years 5 months on now. I can't even do what I want to prepare.

We have to prevent the left and the right from dividing us. All the hot button issues have been making everyone crazy. And most of it is about our creator given rights anyway. If more people lived by the Golden Rule we wouldn't have a lot of problems. But it is the race card, the reverse race card, the war on women, gay marriage, the wars abroad, the war on drugs etc. etc. etc.

Well, let's have a war on stupidity, lets end the war on civil liberties, how about a war for truth, a war on lies, a war on the Fed, a war against depreciating fiat currency, a war against crony capitalism, a war against unjust wars, a war on undeclared wars, a war against unemployment, a war for freedom, a war for a balanced budget, a war on the carbon tax.

I'm so sick of inflammatory language used to try and dictate propaganda to the masses. It hurts my brain when I see it on TV. Even Lou Dobbs has gotten so full of himself that I don't even want to watch him hardly anymore. He talks as if he called the economy bouncing back. He even plays a clip from the night he called it. He talks the economy up every god damned night and now he is so smug and arrogant of a bastard he is writing on a black board ala Glenn Beck now. Like we need to be force fed some lesson in a class. Funny thing, is you can't talk up the economy to people who are living it. Its much harder to do when someone can go to the Oracle we call the Internet and find out the truth. "Well, that's a bunch of bullshit." Indeed. Indeed.

Big Rocks
Mar 24, 2012 - 5:58pm


Another option for Thailand is if you can or want to teach English. It's low pay up country but depends on you personal lifestyle. There's a good website you can check out Expats, lots of Aussies. Also consider Bali, easier and cheaper to stay there. Good luck

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:07pm

Inflation-Dr G-my poor "kids"

Here is my contribution. Yes, it's about cat food. Don't laugh. I used to buy the "cheapy" friskies and/or store brand for my cats. Not even a year ago, I could get it for 25cents a can. When on sale, sometimes, up to 6 for a buck. That was before they shrunk the cans from 6oz to 5.5 oz. But then, something happened. My cats started refusing to eat the food they had been eating for years. Too many cheap fillers? Canned food is a treat for them, I usually feed them just dry food.

So, being the indulgent mama I am, started buying the foo foo Fancy Feast. They would still eat that. When I started buying the foo foo food it was 40cents/can. This year, has had 3 increases to 50 then 60 cents a can. Yesterday, went to get some more -73cents per can!!! So my canned cat food costs have gone up almost 300% in the last year. I think I posted earlier this year about my poor doggies' "milk bone" treats. Cheapy brand went up from $2.79 a bag to 4.79 a bag. I used to be able to get the dog treats on sale 2/$5.

It has gotten to the point it is actually cheaper for me to feed my cats/dogs people food. At least I know what they are really getting by doing that. Unfortunately, my dogs are big dogs, so I still need to buy dry bulk food for them. But the cats are loving eating what I eat, especially the fish! A lot of which I catch myself, being an avid angler.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:41pm

@TheGoodDoctor..ahhhh Help on the Way..

..I was hopeful for you on the recent job that you mentioned, had you in my thoughts. Great post, could not have expressed it any better, hang on brother, we are on the right side of this.,/

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:42pm

my brand of beer

up 38% in 4 years.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:46pm
Mar 24, 2012 - 6:48pm

The CME's Daily Delivery Report

The CME's Daily Delivery Report for Friday showed that 29 gold and 113 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday and, as has been the case all year, it was Jefferies as the short/issuer on all 113 contracts...and the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan were the long/stoppers...with 75 and 31 contracts respectively. The Issuers and Stoppers Report is worth a look...and the link is here.

There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...but an authorized participant withdrew a rather smallish 339,921 troy ounces of silver out of SLV.

And, for the first time in a while, the U.S. Mint had a sales report worthy of the name. They sold 8,500 troy ounces of gold eagles...4,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 275,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 43,500 ounce of gold eagles...23,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,137,000 silver eagles.

So far this month, silver eagles are up about 33% over February's sales month...and gold eagle/buffalo sales are up 120% over the same period. I would agree with what Ted Butler had to say in one of his recent commentaries, that once this market turns to the upside with some real force behind it, we'll see some daily sales that will make your eyes water, because the mint has probably been building up inventory over the last six weeks or so...and will be able to fill all orders regardless of size, as they won't be constrained by current production levels.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:50pm

It took a little coercing but I'm sure glad they posted it

Turd Ferguson
2:35 PM (3 hours ago)
Hi, Tylers.
Please consider looking into this SilverDoctors story. I don't personally know "The Docs" but they've always seemed to be legitimate and this story certainly appears so, too. Broadcast on ZH could really draw some attention that might prove or disprove this "conspiracy theory" once and for all. TF

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:50pm

MF’s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says

MF’s Corzine Ordered Funds Moved to JP Morgan, Memo Says

Jon S. Corzine, MF Global Holding Ltd. chief executive officer, gave “direct instructions” to transfer $200 million from a customer fund account to meet an overdraft in a brokerage account with JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to a memo written by congressional investigators.

Edith O’Brien, a treasurer for the firm, said in an e-mail quoted in the memo that the transfer was “Per JC’s direct instructions,” according to a copy of the memo obtained by Bloomberg News. The e-mail, dated Oct. 28, was sent three days before the company collapsed, the memo says. The memo does not indicate whether that phrase was the full text of the e-mail or an excerpt.

O’Brien’s internal e-mail was sent as the New York-based broker found intraday credit lines limited by JPMorgan, the firm’s clearing bank as well as one of its custodian banks for segregated customer funds, according to the memo, which was prepared for a March 28 House Financial Services subcommittee hearing on the firm’s collapse. O’Brien is scheduled to testify at the hearing after being subpoenaed this week.

Posted on Bloomberg. com ....and the link is here.

Mar 24, 2012 - 6:52pm

Bernanke: Economy Lacks Strength to Sustain Gains

There is still not enough spending and investment to sustain the economic recovery, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday.

Bernanke said consumer demand remains weak relative to its level before the Great Recession. He noted that other contributors to economic growth — including borrowing and trade — have declined.

"Consumer spending has not ... recovered. It's still quite weak relative to where it was before the crisis," Bernanke said in the second of four lectures he is giving to George Washington University students this month. "We lack a source of demand to keep the economy growing."

Posted on ...and the link is here.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, Oct 16, 2019 - 9:53pm
by zman, Oct 16, 2019 - 8:51pm
by NW VIEW, Oct 16, 2019 - 7:31pm
by ancientmoney, Oct 16, 2019 - 5:23pm