Saturday Gold and Silver Summary

Sat, Mar 24, 2012 - 12:31pm

I've found a couple of things for your weekend, so I thought it best to start this new thread. Mainly, I had to make sure that everyone saw the latest OI numbers and CoT report.

First of all, you don't have to wait for me. If you want to get this info for yourself, just save these links to your "favorites". The daily OI numbers are usually released by about 2:30 p.m. EDT and the CoTs come out every Friday at around 3:00 p.m. EDT.

Both the OI numbers from yesterday and the CoT were exactly what I was hoping for. I posted comments with analysis into the previous thread but I wanted to ensure that as many of you saw it as possible, so I am copy-and-pasting both comments below. It is important to keep in mind the limitations of these reports. They are not necessarily forward-looking in that both are already dated by the time they are released. Therefore, they should be treated more like "forensic evidence" of current and past Cartel activity. For example, it is very difficult to use CoT data exclusively to identify potential tops as the capacity to absorb spec longs is nearly unlimited. The Cartels could go to 4:1 net short or 5:1 net short on the backs of Fed-supplied cash and the established practice of fractional bullion banking. That said for 2012 we will, however, use the net short ratios of late February as benchmarks for possible Cartel limitations. As for calling bottoms, the data is more helpful. Bottoms form over a much longer time period than tops and price declines tend to bottom in the general area where Cartel net short ratios reached 2:1.


Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 2:39pm
Perfect, 100%-predictable OI moves yesterday.
Recall that I began feeling yesterday that the decline we saw yesterday morning was "it", the final low, at least for gold. Gold rallied in the late morning yesterday and closed the Comex down $7.70. I expected the OI to decline marginally as this has been the trend in this "correction". The numbers are in and the OI did decline marginally, falling back under 432,000 and a near double-bottom in OI with Tuesday's number, which coincides with a near double-bottom in price. With the rally today that continues this afternoon, chances are very high that I will be proven correct in this latest "Turd's Bottom" for gold.
Silver also acted as expected yesterday. Recall that, on Tuesday, silver declined $1.12 but total OI surged by over 3,000 contracts. I surmised at the time this was indicative of spec shorts being added at the bottom...shorts that will soon be fleeced by the EE with a sharp move to the upside. I was curious to see if OI rose again yesterday because, as you know, silver declined by $0.88 yesterday on the Comex session. Well, whaddayaknow? Total OI rose by 1,400 contracts yesterday during the near $1 selloff. I have deep faith that this was the final suck-in of extra spec shorts before the bottom, just like 2/28 was the final suck-in of the spec longs before the beatdown. For further evidence, as of yesterday the total silver OI is now 5,500 contracts higher than it was on 3/15/12 yet price is $1.38 lower.
Once again, this helps to complete the bottom picture. Spec longs have been wrung out of gold as total OI has now "double-bottomed" below 431, OI level we last saw on Valentine's Day when price was $1718. Spec longs have been driven out of silver, too, and importantly, fresh spec shorts have now been driven in as total silver is already 5,500 contracts off of its "correction lows".

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on March 23, 2012 - 3:21pm.
Exactly what I was hoping for! The large specs longs shed 15,468 or another 6% while large spec shorts grew by 3,975 or, roughly 11%. Beautiful! Even the small specs got in on the action by punting 4,500 longs while adding 1,600 shorts. The all-important Cartel did exactly what I'd hoped---They added 15,424 long (10%) while covering 10,126 (3%) shorts. This means the net short position of The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel shrunk by over 25,000 contracts during the week where price fell nearly $50! The net short ratio is now almost exactly 2:1, down from the 2.7:1 that it reached on 2/28 and is actually a shade lower than where it was on 12/27 when price was $1598. A very, very bullish picture!
Like gold, almost perfect! First of all, remember that total OI barely budged over the 3/13-3/20 reporting period, only falling by about 300 contracts while price fell by nearly $2. Ideally, in this situation the large spec longs would be resolute while, at the same time, the EE shrunk their net short position. Additionally, I had hoped that the bulk of the downside price pressure had come from new large and small spec shorts. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED! ​While price fell $2, large spec longs actually added 30 contracts. This is what we mean when we say that "silver is in strong hands"! Another good sign is that large spec shorts surged by 17% and small spec longs punted almost 9%. Perfect!! Then...the all-important Evil Empire. The Forces of Darkness added 2,281 longs (+6.45%) while covering 1,224 shorts (1.7%). This is a net change in the overall short position of 3,500 contracts (-9.84%) and brings the net short ratio down to 1.85:1. Again, for reference, the EE net short ratio on 2/28 was 2.32:1 and, on 12/27/11 it was a scant 1.34:1. From a purely CoT perspective, you might conclude that silver still has a little ways to go before reaching the extraordinarily bullish levels of late December. However, you must keep in mind that silver is still $3 higher in price than it was back then, too. Therefore, these silver CoT numbers are perfectly acceptable to those (like me) who are searching for a bottom in the here and now.
In conclusion, I am very, very excited for next week and the weeks ahead. Combining the CoTs with the current OI, then adding in the recent backwardation and and the looks of the charts and other technicals and you get a picture that looks, smells and feels like a significant bottom and "markets" that are poised to rebound very soon.


Next up are two, very interesting weekly charts. As we search for a bottom, note first that gold actually had an UP week last week. Sure didn't feel like it, though. Also, notice that silver has had 4 straight DOWN weeks. While I admit that my eyesight is experiencing some middle-age "issues", I challenge everyone to inspect the weekly silver chart and find a period over the last 5 years where silver has experienced 5, consecutive DOWN weeks. Personally, I don't see one. This makes it seem like history is on our side next week.

Lastly, my friend "Big Red" from Virginia sent me this link earlier this week and I thought I would post it here to begin a discussion. Though, for me, the author lays a bit too much blame at the feet of the O'bottom Regime, he nonetheless does a fine job of detailing the precariousness by which freedom currently hangs. He also correctly identifies the problem as being ultimately caused by all politicians, of both parties. Other than that, it's just some light and happy, weekend reading. <sarc>

By Benjamin Smith
On the heels of NDAA, ObamaCare, Stimulus, Son of Stimulus, Patriot Act, takeover of auto, energy, media and movie industries, and the relentless implementation of Agenda 21... the Obama regime running our country into the ground has issued an updated Executive Order which suggests the probability of impending MARTIAL LAW.
We are left to scratch our heads and ask……… Why now?
The only possible answer is…
America is in fact, right now, in the vicious throes of a Cold Civil War.
Cold as in non-violent and Civil as in nationwide; an attempt to force a new government-controlled ideology upon an unwilling public
.... Read more:

That's all for this week. Let's hope and prepare for a turnaround next week, particularly once gold option expiry is behind us. See you Monday. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 25, 2012 - 12:28am

El Gordo

This is not carnage BS. It is based on scientific fact that is a very real possibility right now. After all, isn't this site supposed to be about being prepared? You can bury your head in the sand if you like, me, I just like to know what's coming down.

For additional info on this, read National Geographics:

What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?

So sorry el Gordo if it bugs you.

Swift Boat Vet Dr G
Mar 25, 2012 - 1:36am

Costco TP ----Hey Doc

I bought some yesterday and noticed the same thing. The old price for 36 was $18 and change. The new 30 count package was $14 and change. Sorry I don't remember the exact change.


Mar 25, 2012 - 2:14am

House gets buzzed by a drone once a week now...

...Well I water the plants out front every other night and see it around 11pm - midnight once every 3-4 times a week ( 25 miles east of Atlanta ). Tonight, it was west to east and seemed to be going somewhere, not the usual circling!

This did not happen at all a year ago!

Mar 25, 2012 - 2:26am

@Baikalic re: options expiration

The metals are, as a rule, generally slammed down just before or at OpEx -- though perhaps a more accurate way to put it is that OpEx is accompanied by unusually violent price swings. Jesse's Cafe Americain has a running, detailed history of this, his most recent set of charts:

The reason: the parties who sell the options also own the market, and thus would be awfully negligent, nay, irresponsible of them NOT to make sure that the possible maximum of these options a) expire worthless, or b) are sold BACK to them at pennies on the dollar before ending up ITM. This is just MHO, of course.

BTW, I love your perspective on "in a geologically rapid timeframe"...

Mar 25, 2012 - 2:32am

Next week

Do I see this right?

Future expiration/1st notice area/Treasury auctions/end of month/end of quarter?

Silver Rock
Mar 25, 2012 - 4:14am

New Precious Metal Forum, Gold Silver Forum !!!!!!!!!!!

Hi All,

TF Metals is always going to be the best, but I see that a new forum has started up if anybody cares.

Gold Silver Forum

Mar 25, 2012 - 7:15am

We Can't Make it Here Anymore

James McMurtry "We can't make it here"

We'll work for food
We'll die for oil
We'll kill for power and to us the spoils
The billionaires get to pay less tax
The working poor get to fall through the cracks
Let 'em eat jellybeans let 'em eat cake
Let 'em eat sh$%, whatever it takes
They can join the Air Force, or join the Corps
If they can't make it here anymore

And that's how it is
That's what we got
If the president wants to admit it or not
You can read it in the paper
Read it on the wall
Hear it on the wind
If you're listening at all
Get out of that limo
Look us in the eye
Call us on the cell phone
Tell us all why

Be Prepared
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:45am
Be Prepared
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:50am
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:53am

Not judging guilt or innocence...

...unlike a certain sitting president (I prefer to wait until the EVIDENCE is presented). Just pointing out how the MSM presents the case:

Pictures used in every article I've seen:

Pictures dug up by someone else:

If it turns out that Mr. Zimmerman took this young man's life "in cold blood" then he should face the consequences". My only reason for this post is to point out the agenda of the MSM, the President, the race-baiters Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton and the "social justice" groups like New Black Panthers. Moderator: If this post is too inflammatory in your opinion please delete.
Be Prepared
Mar 25, 2012 - 7:53am
Be Prepared
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:01am
Be Prepared
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:08am
Mar 25, 2012 - 8:48am

fish and gasoline/diesel prices

I remember a spike in 2008 in fish prices that was realatively short lived. I also remember the complete collapse of Maine lobster prices the following year as they couldn't give them away. There seems to be some price elasticity for fish and lobster, which may be the only thing that saves the wild populations. Easily the highest single cost of running a fishing boat is diesel fuel.

That is, of course, if Cs137 from Fukushima doesn't destroy the food chain in the Pacific. It would probably be safer to lean towards mackerel, sardines, and squid than larger fish like tuna and swordfish which may concentrate radioactive isotopes (along with mercury).

Mar 25, 2012 - 8:56am

Another Friday Night Document Dump. It's Almost Like...

...they took advice from John Corzine. Oh...wait....

Documents: White House was all-hands-on-deck as Solyndra collapse neared By Ben Geman and Andrew Restuccia - 03/23/12 07:06 PM ET

Several key White House offices were involved with the Obama administration’s messaging plans and other preparations as the collapse of the taxpayer-backed solar company Solyndra was imminent, newly released documents show.

The latest White House documents delivered to House Republicans on Friday again highlight the extent to which senior administration officials braced for the fallout as Solyndra – a company President Obama had personally visited – was about to go under.

A White House memo that noted the danger of “imminent bankruptcy” at the end of August 2011 says, “OMB, DPC and NEC have been working with press and OLA to be prepared for this news to break.”

Acronym translation: OMB is the Office of Management and Budget, DPC is the Domestic Policy Council, NEC is the National Economic Council and OLA is the Office of Legal Affairs.

The document, an update on Solyndra’s $535 million Energy Department (DOE) loan guarantee, notes that $527 million had been disbursed and that DOE believed no more funds should be alloted.

The White House document notes that the Treasury Department, OMB and other White House offices agreed that no more money should be provided because there was a “near-zero chance" that the company could survive.

The company collapsed at the end of August 2011 and filed for bankruptcy in early September. The Hill has reported previously on the administration decision not to attempt a last-ditch financial rescue.

White House internal communications during the company's final days include an email about a planned meeting to discuss Solyndra on August 29, 2011. Heather Zichal, a senior energy policy aide, and Deputy OMB Director Jeffrey Zients were slated to brief other officials.

The list of optional attendees included several high-level officials, such as then-Domestic Policy Council Director Melody Barnes and Nancy-Ann DeParle, another senior adviser to the president.

Republicans have pounced on last year’s Solyndra bankruptcy, arguing that the administration missed a series of red flags that hinted at the company’s financial problems. They’ve also alleged that the administration approved the loan in 2009 to please Obama’s campaign donors.

The House Energy and Commerce Committee’s year-long investigation into the Solyndra loan guarantee has not uncovered evidence of political favoritism. But it has unearthed documents that are likely embarrassing and potentially politically damaging for the White House, including some that show officials questioning the wisdom of issuing the loan guarantee.

The White House sent another 432 pages of documents to Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Friday in response to a November subpoena for all Solyndra communications.

Read more:

ClinkinKY RuNuts
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:18am

@ RuNuts--I actually watched this entire video...

...and my response is: It's all well and good to sing (whine) about the unfairness of the world today, and I hope he makes a $Million with his song (highly doubt it though). What it comes down to though is simple mathematics. If he (McMurtry) had his way, EVERY CEO in the world could divide his salary amongst the "the workers" and it still wouldn't amount to a "spit in the ocean" when it comes to solving the problem of world-wide debt and the "the solution(s)". I'm not even going to address his other whines. Just sayin':)

Eric Original
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:29am

Cost of TP

The rolls have been getting narrower as well. First, all the brands cut them down to 4.25". Now most are going to 4". I dunno about you guys, but my hinder hasn't gotten any smaller in recent years. :)

rckymtn ClinkinKY
Mar 25, 2012 - 9:54am

Witness: Martin attacked

Witness: Martin attacked Zimmerman

Updated: Friday, 23 Mar 2012, 6:19 PM EDT
Published : Friday, 23 Mar 2012, 5:47 PM EDT

ORLANDO - A witness we haven't heard from before paints a much different picture than we've seen so far of what happened the night 17-year-old Trayvon Martin was shot and killed.

The night of that shooting, police say there was a witness who saw it all.

Our sister station, FOX 35 in Orlando, has spoken to that witness.

What Sanford Police investigators have in the folder, they put together on the killing of Trayvon Martin few know about.

The file now sits in the hands of the state attorney. Now that file is just weeks away from being opened to a grand jury.

It shows more now about why police believed that night that George Zimmerman shouldn't have gone to jail.

Zimmerman called 911 and told dispatchers he was following a teen. The dispatcher told Zimmerman not to.

And from that moment to the shooting, details are few.

But one man's testimony could be key for the police.

"The guy on the bottom who had a red sweater on was yelling to me: 'help, help…and I told him to stop and I was calling 911," he said.

Trayvon Martin was in a hoodie; Zimmerman was in red.

The witness only wanted to be identified as "John," and didn't not want to be shown on camera.

His statements to police were instrumental, because police backed up Zimmerman's claims, saying those screams on the 911 call are those of Zimmerman.

"When I got upstairs and looked down, the guy who was on top beating up the other guy, was the one laying in the grass, and I believe he was dead at that point," John said.

Zimmerman says the shooting was self defense. According to information released on the Sanford city website, Zimmerman said he was going back to his SUV when he was attacked by the teen.

Sanford police say Zimmerman was bloody in his face and head, and the back of his shirt was wet and had grass stains, indicating a struggle took place before the shooting.

Mar 25, 2012 - 10:07am


long but worth it.....check it out TF..........i know u are a coxe-man........ooopps

alot of insight into paper money history and future also.....GOLD BACKED BONDS!!!!!

must read end [actually, ALLLLof it]

Mar 25, 2012 - 10:31am


Umm, he admitted to shooting an unarmed child, most, that is non-ignorent people, would consider that cold blood.

You should know, if you have done any research in this case, the cops did absolutely no crime screen forensics other than drugs and alcohol test on the dead kid. So as a consequence they will be little evidence to produce at trial.

Back on the ignore you go.

Mar 25, 2012 - 10:50am

Growing use of perception management

in social media/Facebook/You Tube-

KONY 2112 video went 'viral' to stop Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony. Anti-KONY resolution in senate- Obama deploying troops to stop KONY. Director Jason Russell hospitalized after public nudity/actions. I guess there is also 1.5 billion barrels of newly discovered crude there too.


This 'Hunger Games' movie has gone 'viral' too. Why?


The PTB has a vested interest in trolling.

Mar 25, 2012 - 10:53am

the combination of fox news

the combination of fox news / anonymous source / U.S law enforcement.

makes this a total guessing game. with maybe an edge to the fact that whatever they say, is probably not the truth.

edit: how come we're discussing this btw? seems a bit derailing

I'm really psyched / interested to see what unfolds this week for metals, do we have some friday options expirations?

other than that I'm very bullish/hopeful.

rckymtn DavidSilverSwe
Mar 25, 2012 - 11:15am

Like a witness would give his

Like a witness would give his name out in this case so he can be subject to being bullied or threatened by who knows.

Most non ignorant people would actually wait for all the FACTS to come out and then make up their minds. However we all know that won't allowed to happen since there are so many dumb people in this world that always fall for the medias spin hook line and sinker before knowing ALL THE FACTS! It use to be your are innocent before proven guilty but I guess too many IGNORANT people don't believe that anymore

Cops have a eye witness who saw what happened so right now I'm more inclined to believe that account than Al Sharptons. If he is found guilty then I hope he spends the rest of his life in prison.

Dr G
Mar 25, 2012 - 11:39am

Some of our citizens would be

If Zimmerman is found guilty he should be punished to the full extent of the law. Neither you nor I can trust the MSM to give us any honest facts in regard to his guilt or innocence.

Some of our citizens would be served well to understand that avoiding the appearance of evil is a benefit to their lives.

It's time the black community cleaned themselves up. Go ahead and continue to cherish your music that glamorizes violence, rape, drugs, and brutality. It's moronic to think that it doesn't affect the youth. The first place Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson should look with dismay when it comes to these horrific events is within their own communities.

One of the saddest events in our modern society is when thug movie stars/rappers state that they don't condone violence, but are simply relaying the childhood that they grew up in. That attitude isn't helping anybody.

ClinkinKY tyberious
Mar 25, 2012 - 11:41am

@ tyberious

Back on the ignore you go.

Based on your reading comprehension, good.

Mar 25, 2012 - 12:05pm

There's a lot more happening...than meets the eye!!!...

Take what information you choose...or not to choose...

Just stay safe...& we will all be fine!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Mar 25, 2012 - 12:05pm
Mar 25, 2012 - 12:34pm

Extreme vulnerability of nuclear power plants to solar flares

I guess I am not the only one thinking about the threat of an EMP and it's importance. There is a new article over at ZeroHedge:

The Government Spends Trillions On Unlikely Threats …

Read here:

"Nasa scientists are predicting that a solar storm will knock out most of the electrical power grid in many countries worldwide, perhaps for months. See this, this, this, this, this, this and this."

Amazingly, this threat can be addressed by taking precautionary measures that are relatively inexpensive compared to many other perceived threats that the gubmint addresses.

Mar 25, 2012 - 12:38pm

Stay within your circle of influence

I have been catching up with posts here. One thing comes to mind.

Yes we are in very unusual times. There is so much to consider. Exhausting at times. There is talk here of sun spots and nuclear meltdown and even the global warming debate etc.

However most of this stuff is completely beyond our circle of influence. It is pointless filling our head with these things. There is enough to worry about and decisions to be made about the things we can influence. Running around like chicken licken squawking "the sky is falling" is counter productive in my opinion. Concentrate on those things over which you have influence.

That is: Make your circle of concern no bigger than your circle of influence.

​Fight or flight response is big enough already. There is nothing at all to be gained by making this circle of concern so much bigger than your circle of influence. It will just put you in such a bad space the rational decisions may end up becoming irrational ones.


Mar 25, 2012 - 12:42pm

Regarding Zimmerman

Tom Wolfe wrote a book that sort-of parallels this case several years ago, "The Bonfire Of The Vanities". It's a highly entertaining read and says a lot about media and cultural bias. Don't judge it by the cruddy (in my opinion) movie they made based on the book.

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6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
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