Party Likes It's 2009

I don't know if anyone else feels this way, but I've been having a strange feeling of deja vu and I couldn't seem to place it. I was standing there this morning, making some coffee, when it hit me. This is late 2009 all over again. If you were trading and stacking back then, I'm sure you'll recall that painful period. If not, let me give you a little refresher.

Where were you in late 2009? Were you listening to this:

Or in line to see this:

I know where I was...I was making some serious cash. In July of 2009, gold was trading in the low $900s. By Thanksgiving of that year it was near $1200 and Turd was flush (no pun intended). And I will never, ever forget where I was when gold peaked. I was reading ZH and watching Fox Business when I saw gold trade at 1225 and read a headline on ZH that the Bundesbank was going to be announcing a huge gold purchase in the morning. My personal sentiment indicator went to 10+. Unfortunately, that didn't work out so well. Beginning the next day, gold began to roll over, instead, and by the first Friday of December, I was doomed. The BLSBS report came out and was spun into good news. Dreams of "green shoots" and a "recovery summer" soon took over. The POSX shot higher and, over the next 3 months, rallied nearly 10% from 74 to 81.

The resulting decline in gold was brutal. First, it had peaked at $1226 and Santa had promised an "angel" at $1225 for years. The fact that I'd let greed overcome me and consequently didn't sell at $1225 was crushing and when gold rolled back down through $1100 in January, I was seriously depressed. All of the same old AGAs were claiming that $1225 was a blow-off top and that gold was soon going to be trading back below $1000 and was probably headed back toward $800. I was sick, Mister Hyde was furious and it seemed like all was lost.

But we didn't quit, we didn't give up. I knew that the whole "recovery summer" thing was a joke. The U.S. economy wasn't going to recover, the best it could do was stagnate and limp. The MOPE and the SPIN were so thick, I could barely breathe and when gold bottomed at $1052 in February of 2010, there was hardly anyone around who noticed or even cared. And that's the funny thing about bottoms, you rarely, if ever, notice them in the present as they are only visible in hindsight. With hindsight, we now know that the "green shoots" of 2009 became the dead weeds of 2010. All of the breathless proclamations by LIESman et al not withstanding, the facts, the math and reality took hold again by mid-2010 and gold finally surged back to the $1225 level in May and through $1225 in September.

paper_3-21amgold09.jpgpaper_3-21ampig09.jpg

My point is simple: We are currently in an identical situation. Gold surged to $1925 last September and, on 9/6/11, gold was ready to rocket higher on news that the SNB was going to devalue the Swissie by 10%. Again, sentiment was at the 10+ level and, again, we were within a few dollars of a Santa "angel" at $1936. Well, we all know what happened next and now, after six months of this brutal "correction" where gold has again fallen 15% while the POSX has rallied 10%, we are once again staring into the Pit of Despair. LIESman et all are screaming from the rooftops that the economy is improving and The Bernank is desperately implying that QE is over. Well, I call "bullshit" and I'm standing tall against them. Will you join me?

As I type, gold is at $1632 and silver is at $31.43. I've been maintaining all month that gold would likely bottom between 1600 and 1650 and that silver was headed to 31, maybe even 30. Why would anyone panic now when we are so close to the bottom. Always remember and never forget: THE ONLY WAY YOU WILL CONSISTENTLY MAKE MONEY TRADING GOLD AND SILVER IS TO BUY WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS SELLING AND SELL WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS BUYING. Period. Why is this true? Because this strategy essentially puts you on the same side of the trade as The Cartels, which as you know post-MFG, are exerting an increasing level of influence on the paper metal markets. It is clear to me that now --right now-- The Cartels are buying and covering not selling and adding. I discussed this yesterday in two, separate comments to the previous thread and they are reprinted below:

Back at the last highs of 2/28, total gold OI was 479,044. As of Monday's close, it had fallen to 434,226 for a drop of 9.35%. The last time gold total OI was at this level was 2/14/12 when price closed at $1718. Additionally, even back in January, we find higher total OI numbers. The week of 1/16 averaged total OI of about 439,000. Gold began 2012 with a price near $1600 and a total OI of 420,000.

Back at the price highs of 2/28, total silver OI was 115,866. Total OI was actually higher on 2/24 at 118,204. As of Monday's close, it had fallen back to 108,268 but actually bottomed back on 3/15 at 106,723 or a drop of 9.71%. The last time total silver OI was below 107,000 was 2/17/12 when price was $33.28. Total silver OI averaged about 103,000 in January after beginning the year at almost exactly this level, near 106,000.

Clearly, any "excess" open interest brought about by the early year rallies from 1600 to 1800 and 28 to 37 has now been wrung out. Again, this is just another signal that we are very near a bottom.

Crazy silver OI report basis yesterday.

Yesterday, gold was down $20.20 and total OI was down 3,200 contracts. Perfectly normal.

Silver, however, was down $1.12 yet total OI expanded by 3,154 contracts. ​ The July12 alone went from 12,404 to 14,018. The only deduction that can be made is that a significant amount of new shorts entered the silver pit yesterday. What we don't know is whether it was Cartel or spec shorts. The CoT on Friday will provide some clues but it is highly likely that these are spec shorts. Why? Because The Cartel typically only adds shorts to:

  1. Cap price    OR
  2. Attempt to start a waterfall/cascade selling event.

If only now we are seeing a huge run-up in spec shorts then we truly are very close to a bottom as the late-coming spec shorts will soon be fleeced just like the late-coming spec longs were fleeced on 2/29.

Total silver OI is now back to where it was two weeks ago, when silver was almost exactly $1 higher.

Ahead of the CoT on Friday, here is what we know:

Gold for the week 3/13--3/20 saw the total OI fall from 442,319 to 431,039 while price fell by $47 (2.77%).

Silver for the week 3/13--3/20 saw the total OI only fall from 111,730 to 111,422 while price fell $1.75 (5.2%).

Likely Conclusion: This week's CoT will be slightly bullish for gold but will show a significant improvement in the CoT picture for silver.

Anyway, the point is that is is always darkest before dawn and we are very deep into the wee hours. The global economies have not and will not improve to the point where we can "grow our way out from under the debt". No way, no how. In 2010, it took 6-8 months before logic, math and facts finally prevailed over hope, MOPE and SPIN. The truth will win again in 2012, you just have to be patient.

One more thing, I received some communication from "Winston" this morning and he provided some very helpful information. He is of the belief that the down move that began Tuesday evening and continues this morning is almost entirely related to April gold option expiration. Again, the Comex is now almost completely controlled by The Cartel as the only participants left are Cartel monkeys and HFT-WOPR momentum chasers. This allows The Cartel, which has full knowledge of the order books for both futures and options, the ability to swing price at their leisure and position price in such a way as to maximize pain for option holders upon expiration. Winston believes that the current target of their malice are not only the call buyers but also the out-of-the-money put sellers for April. Remember, gold was near $1800 just 4 weeks before expiration of the April options. A lot of traders believed that there was easy money to be made by selling out-of-the-money puts, the April 1650s and the April 1600s. Those that did are getting seriously squeezed right now and they are being forced to short actual gold contracts to hedge themselves. Winston thinks that the 22,000+ contracts between 1600 and 1650 are the true target of The Cartel here and that their ultimate intent may be to drop gold as close to 1600 as possible before expiration at the close of business next Tuesday.

What's interesting about this is how it fits right in line with all of the other "bottom signals" we've been discussing here as of late. A low near $1600 tomorrow or early next week would:

  1. Complete the drop to stout support at 1600
  2. Complete the right shoulder of a massive reverse head-and-shoulder bottom
  3. Bring silver down to 30-31, just like we'd envisioned
  4. Drop gold open interest levels all the back to early January levels
  5. Put the RSI and MACD indicators into deeply oversold territory
  6. Drive sentiment and our new TITS indicator to record low levels. Even Mister Hyde is once again suicidal and ready to simply cash out his IRA before it goes to zero. He'd like to take it in cash and go to Vegas where he can blow the rest on blackjack, Jack Daniel's and hookers.

And don't forget that lease rates have clearly bottomed and have significantly reversed. In September and December of last year, lease rates reversed about two weeks before price.

So, in the end, hang in there. I know it's tough and painful to watch everything go down when you know you are on the right side long-term. But let me assure you: This, too, shall pass. Soon...very soon...the metals will bottom and resume their inexorible march higher. Of this, you can be certain.

TF

267 Comments

Dr Jerome's picture

HIndenburg Omen?

Has anybody seen an analyst touting the Hindenburg omen lately? Last news story I saw was from 9/2010.  Anybody here know how to calculate it? I was just wondering with all the bearishness on ZH and even infiltrating the MSM.

ClinkinKY's picture

Government

Once upon a time the government had a vast scrap yard in the middle of a desert.  Congress said, "Someone may steal from it at night."  So they created a night watchman position and hired a person for the job.

 Then Congress said, "How does the watchman do his job without instruction?"  So they created a planning department and hired two people, one person to write the instructions, and one person to do time studies.

 Then Congress said, "How will we know the Night Watchman is doing the tasks correctly?"  So they created a Quality Control department and hired two people.  One was to do the studies and one was to write the reports.

Then Congress said, "How are these people going to get paid?"  So they created two positions: a Time Keeper and a Payroll Officer then hired two people.

Then Congress said, "Who will be accountable for all of these people?"  So they created an administrative section and hired three people, an Administrative Officer, Assistant Administrative Officer, and a Legal Secretary.

 Then Congress said, "We have had this command in operation for one year and we are $918,000 over budget, we must cut back.   So they laid-off the Night Watchman.

 NOW, slowly, let it sink in.  Does anybody remember the reason given for the establishment of the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY during the Carter administration?

 Anybody?  Anything?  No?  Didn't think so!  Bottom line is, we've spent several hundred billion dollars in support of an agency the reason for which not one person who reads this can remember!

 Ready??  It was very simple and at the time, everybody thought it very appropriate.  The Department of Energy was instituted on 8/04/1977, TO LESSEN OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL.  Hey, pretty efficient, huh?  AND NOW IT'S 2012 -- 35 YEARS LATER -- AND THE BUDGET FOR THIS "NECESSARY" DEPARTMENT IS AT $24.2 BILLION A YEAR.  IT HAS 16,000 FEDERAL EMPLOYEES AND APPROXIMATELY 100,000 CONTRACT EMPLOYEES; AND LOOK AT THE JOB IT HAS DONE!

 (THIS IS WHERE YOU SLAP YOUR FOREHEAD AND SAY, "WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?")

 34 years ago 30% of our oil consumption was foreign imports.  Today 70% of our oil consumption is foreign imports.  Ah, yes -- good old Federal bureaucracy.  NOW, WE HAVE TURNED OVER THE BANKING SYSTEM, HEALTH CARE, AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY TO THE SAME GOVERNMENT?

 Hello!!  Anybody Home?

 Signed,

 The Night Watchman
 

onewileyz's picture

Thank you

Wizard and Boswell. My guess was way off base. Thanks for setting the record straight!

Number 47's picture

@opticsguy

I was first once on the open thread, ah those heady days!

Don't look for it myself but I wrote it because I had the opportunity, it's a bit of fun. On the other hand I have almost 1200 hat tips from 140 posts. I find this surprising as I'm a confessed socialist on a site that is not. Must be that I contribute something of value to the community. If I see first, I will do it again. I will also mark the old thread to let others know.

What spoiled that thread you posted was others tirading against what they could have easily scrolled by. A bit of fun is a bit of fun, when I see others having a bit of fun in the park that doesn't affect me in any way I don't stand shouting, hey, stop that, stop having fun!

That would make me look like a miserable, cantankerous curmudgeon and I have enough negative monikers attached to me without that one. wink

Just scroll on by, life is too short.

P.S. Scary looking gun, I reckon I'd piss down BOTH my legs if I was looking down the barrels of that thing.

opticsguy's picture

47

I myself did the FIRST! posting back in the heyday of Mish's blog.  The post above is for LOL purposes only.

I don't know if you were on the board when I did my post about catforum.com.  It seems to be troll free.  I have never seen a cat-hating post, ever.  Since there are so many cat haters, why aren't they destroying catforum.com?.  Maybe because love/hatred of cats doesn't hold the viability of our economic system in the balance?

JimmyTheHand's picture

@ClinkinKY

Thank you very much for that educational post.

Monedas's picture

Altruism = "Too good to be true-ism" !

A little bit of altruism is acceptable.....as long as you don't do it with OPM !   My idea of altruism would be Michael Moore immolating himself with lead free gasoline at an OWS rally, dousing the flames with hybrid battery acid, rolling him in rock salt then tar and feathering him and sticking him on the blade of a wind turbine for the inevitable press interviews !  A modern crucifixion of a liberal icon !    Monedas   2012    Comedy Jihad World Tour  devil

jmcadg's picture

Hey Bugzy, you're not going

Hey Bugzy, you're not going mad, I saw that too. It's a mad time, but you're completely sane. Well done on the house sale, time for a fill of phyzz me thinks :)

Eric Original's picture

Santa's Elf

Hey, good posts on this thread, buddy. 

I'm with you.  Not going anywhere.

cpnscarlet's picture

Interesting Oil Article

Makes some of my points from last night seem prescient.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/oil-conundrum-explained

JayBKay's picture

Sharing My Technical View

I just wanted to share my technical view with you guys.  

A- The 1st chart is a daily gold chart that shows that the 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement (@ $ 1,629) is still holding so far.  I expect it to be tested once more in the coming days.  The scenario I'm hoping for is a bounce from this level and the continuation of the journey towards $2,000/ounce that I believe will be seen by August 2012.

However, I'm afraid that history will repeat itself in less than a month.  Notice what happened on the 29th of Feb and the 1st of March.  The huge drop on the 29th of Feb stopped exactly at the 38.2 Fib Level  and the very next day gold rebounded and stopped exactly at the 23.6 level and then continued its journey down.

Yesterday's drop stopped exactly at the 61.8 Fib level and the prices rebounded from that point and stopped few minutes ago at the 50.0 Fib level.  The accuracy at which the prices are stopping is a bit freaky.  So will things play out the same way as the beginning of the month? Let's wait and see.

B- In case this critical level ($1,629) is broken then our next stop should be the trendline that started in October 2008.

Below is a Weekly Gold chart that shows that the trendline should act as a very strong support between $1,587/97.
As long as 1,587 is not broken next week, then there is absolutely nothing to worry about.

One last thing I'd like to add is my observation of the Silver Lease Rates that I first learned about from TF.  If my analysis is correct, then the bottom should be in when:  

0% < 1-Month Lease Rate < -0.1%    &    the 3-Month Lease Rate is at +0.1% simultaneously.  

Currently we're at -0.2% and 0.03% respectively.

Good Luck

JayBKay

BagOfGold's picture

DPH is now...

IndigoStar7?...My Friend...show us your new avatar!...Why the change?...

Bag Of Gold

Brimstone's picture

Thinking out loud

Perhaps I am beating a dead horse here, but I'm still trying to assimilate the gold/fiat pricing action:

http://pricedingold.com/us-home-prices/

http://pricedingold.com/2012/03/19/market-update-2/

If you look at the 2 links above, pretty much everything is down in non-fiat terms (deflation), which makes sense in terms of the massive degree of debt destruction going on in a debt based global economy.

http://pricedingold.com/charts/Homes-1890.pdf

http://pricedingold.com/charts/yale-1900.pdf

http://pricedingold.com/charts/DJIA-1900.pdf

http://pricedingold.com/charts/Crude-1950.pdf

All four of these long term charts seems to suggest from a simplistic point of view that we are near a "bottom" of sorts.  The question is what form does the bottom take?  2 broad possibilities are that;

A) gold prices drop faster than the compared instruments, (food, energy, housing, etc) therefore driving the price of these instruments in gold back upwards.(An effective/net gold price drop)

B) the prices of these instruments rises faster than the price of gold rises. (A net asset price increase in fiat terms)

of course these are very broad scenarios and we are ignoring, for the moment, the possibility of running flat.  However, fundamentals would seem to suggest that scenario A is unlikely.  With fiat currencies being actively debased at a substantial rate, and central banks sucking up gold like a heroin junky the mechanism currently does not exist to drive scenario A.

Scenario B is essentially a simplified case of deflation followed by inflation (asset based not fiat based, an important different in a world of electronic fiat), a nasty whipsaw that crushes most involved.  With central bank and large buyer demand as strong as ever and "investor" sentiment in gold beginning to grow, the long term outlook for gold going up is solid.  The problem with scenario B is that the massive reserves that Bernanke has printed have to begin to circulate somehow.  Another mechanism for price increases in scenario B would be for a general preference for physical assets over fiat to develop and for a premiumto  begin to form for physical assets over fiat (i.e joe sixpack would rather put his money into a house then the market).

Another consideration is that retirement plans are heavily invested in the equities market and RE.  As such Scenario B is more in line with TPTBs interests, as it would actually support the massive pension ponzi where as scenario A promptly implodes the pension and municipal bond ponzi.

In short the long term trends suggest that the commodity price of assets/commodities is about to start increasing, potentially substantially, while the fiat price could in theory go up/down/flat.  Of those three choices for fiat prices, a decrease in fiat value of physical assets crushes the great ponzi in short order; flat fiat prices during rising commodity prices of physical assets would probably force a "controlled demolition" of certain segments of the ponzi in order to persevere the core for TPTB.  Increasing fiat prices during increasing commodity prices is the only real choice.

Of course I just made a round about argument for inflation being about to hit.  But I suspect that the modern version of electronic fiat controlled by private banks has added a new dynamic to a cycle as old as history.  I think that electronic fiat has caused/allowed the deflationary phase of the whipsaw collapse to be heavily masked.

The available options appear to almost force Bernanke and friends to attempt controlled ( good luck with that) wage inflation.  without wage inflation the fiat devaluations effectiveness is highly limited since the proletariat rapidly get consumed by the economic shenanigans and social upheaval becomes a major concern.  It appears that Bernanke's problem is that globalization prevents him from easily initiating wage inflation, as the large international corporations that dominate the globalized market would simply siphon off the increased flow of fiat.  That would pump the markets but crush the proletariat.  One of the easiest ways address that may be a large war (iran?).  A large war would generate a booming war economy (Krugman's wet dream), redirect social discord towards the "enemy" (only 1 or 2 false flags needed!) and provide an excuse for disconnecting from the global market in a measured manner or instituting capital controls that have the same effect.

In short it appears, that the general course of matters to come over the next several years is commodity price increases with an attempt at wage inflation, with a large scale war or similar catastrophic event  used as a tool to facilitate the needed supporting actions to achieve these goals.  Such a path is heavily in the TPTB's interest, as it would support the municipal and pension ponzi, increase the value of the physical holdings that TPTB ( from banks to governments to powerful individuals) are rapidly accumulating, all while providing a method for the resolution of crushing debts ( default on loans held by the "enemy" and inflate away much of what is left).

I don't think it will be successful.  This general path has been attempted by most governments in history and none have ever succeeded.  Unfortunately history also tends to show us that the attempt does tend to allow TPTB to drag things out for decades if not longer.

Just thinking out loud.

 

Turd Ferguson's picture

I should have a new post by

MODERATOR

I should have a new post by 11:30 EDT

Sorry for the delay

cpnscarlet's picture

@ClinkinKY - As to

@ClinkinKY - As to that marine getting hassled because of his political activity - The Hatch Act has been in place for a long time and as far as the military goes, it's needed. Political activity flies in the face of the need for subordination in a military environment. Like it or not, the chain of command must be honored, if not liked. The military IS NOT like the civilian world and you do sign away some rights when you join. I don't see a need to give that marine a pass. He knew the rules when he started and if he didn't like them, he should do the honorable thing and resign.  

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

S&P 500 Inching Lower as US Dollar Attempts to Clear Resistance

THE TAKEAWAYThe S&P 500 is inching lower toward validating a bearish technical setup while the US Dollar continues to push up against resistance trying to break higher.

S&P 500 – Prices are edging lower after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at the top of a Rising Wedge chart formation being carved out since November, hinting a move lower may gaining momentum. Initial support lines up at the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1382.60. Near-term resistance is in the 1408.80-1418.20area, marked by the 38.2% expansion and the Wedge top.

SP_500_Inching_Lower_as_US_Dollar_Attempts_to_Clear_Resistance_body_Picture_5.png, S&amp;P 500 Inching Lower as US Dollar Attempts to Clear Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL – Prices continued to retest resistance-turned-support at the top of a recently broken Falling Wedge top having put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 108.32. It remains unclear whether the recent pullback represents a true reversal or merely a correction. A break of the 38.2% Fib at 104.75 would confirm the bearish scenario. Initial resistance now stands at 106.96, the 23.6% retracement.

SP_500_Inching_Lower_as_US_Dollar_Attempts_to_Clear_Resistance_body_Picture_6.png, S&amp;P 500 Inching Lower as US Dollar Attempts to Clear Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD – Prices continue to consolidate in a familiar range between resistance in the 1666.37-1677.05 area and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1638.49. A break higher exposes a familiar pivot at 1718.05 while a close below support clears the way for a move to the 50% expansion at 1590.82.

SP_500_Inching_Lower_as_US_Dollar_Attempts_to_Clear_Resistance_body_Picture_7.png, S&amp;P 500 Inching Lower as US Dollar Attempts to Clear Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices are stalling below resistance at 9997, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, having put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above resistance-turned-support at a falling trend line set from the December 14 swing high. A daily close above this boundary exposes the 61.8% Fib expansion at 10071. Near-term support is at 9935, the 38.2% retracement for now.

SP_500_Inching_Lower_as_US_Dollar_Attempts_to_Clear_Resistance_body_Picture_8.png, S&amp;P 500 Inching Lower as US Dollar Attempts to Clear Resistance

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction,

Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Commodity prices are looking to the US New Home Sales report for direction. Expectations call for a print at 325,000 in February, marking the strongest result in 14 months. A print in line with forecasts is likely to boost sentiment-sensitive crude oil and copper prices on hopes that a firming US recovery will help offset headwinds from a recession in the Eurozone and a slowdown in China slated for this year.

By contrast, gold and silver may decline as the outcome weights further on QE3 expectations while boosting the US Dollar and thereby applying de-facto pressure to anti-fiat assets. The greenback has notably demonstrated an ability to rise on supportive domestic economic news over recently as Federal Reserve officials began to gradually back away from ultra-dovish rhetoric.

Markets are also watching for the outcome of an Italian cabinet meeting where Prime Minister Mario Monti is pushing for a controversial labor reform package. The scheme is part of an Italian push to boost long-term economic growth in the hope that laying the foundation for key structural reforms now will encourage confidence and reduce borrowing costs, keeping sovereign solvency fears at bay.

Of the so-called “PIIGS” countries at the heart of the Eurozone debt crisis, Italy represents the greatest remaining threat to the region. The country represents the world’s third-largest bond market with close to €3 trillion in outstanding government paper, meaning a blow-up there is likely to have dire implications well beyond the borders of the single currency bloc.

The Prime Minister faces an uphill battle as labor unions mount fierce opposition to the reforms, disputing a component of the plan that would make it easier for employers to fire workers. A sentiment-supportive outcome likely to boost commodity prices will see the Monti administration press forward with its proposals. A watered-down package may rekindle risk aversion however amid renewed fears about Italy’s fiscal outlook.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $105.35 // -1.92 // -1.79%

Prices continued to retest resistance-turned-support at the top of a recently broken Falling Wedge top having put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 108.32. It remains unclear whether the recent pullback represents a true reversal or merely a correction. A break of the 38.2% Fib at 104.75 would confirm the bearish scenario. Initial resistance now stands at 106.96, the 23.6% retracement.

Commodities_Look_to_US_New_Home_Sales_for_Direction_Italy_a_Wildcard_body_Picture_3.png, Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1645.90 // -4.53 // -0.27%

Prices continue to consolidate in a familiar range between resistance in the 1666.37-1677.05 area and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1638.49. A break higher exposes a familiar pivot at 1718.05 while a close below support clears the way for a move to the 50% expansion at 1590.82.

Commodities_Look_to_US_New_Home_Sales_for_Direction_Italy_a_Wildcard_body_Picture_4.png, Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.58 // -0.58 // -1.80%

Prices took out support at 31.67, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, exposing the 61.8% level at 30.37. The 50% Fib has been recast as immediate resistance. Longer term, a confirmed Head and Shoulders top chart pattern implies a measured downside objective at 26.84, which closely coincides with the late December bottom.

Commodities_Look_to_US_New_Home_Sales_for_Direction_Italy_a_Wildcard_body_Picture_5.png, Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.766 // -0.080 // -2.08%

Prices broke below support at 3.808, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with sellers now aiming to challenge the 3.696-3.713 area anew. The 23.6% level has been recast as near-term resistance.

Commodities_Look_to_US_New_Home_Sales_for_Direction_Italy_a_Wildcard_body_Picture_6.png, Commodities Look to US New Home Sales for Direction, Italy a Wildcard

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

boatman's picture

i just knew

i would agree with Monedas

treefrog's picture

$32!

thirty two silver in the rear-view mirror!

Strongsidejedi's picture

Ever get the sense that the tide has gone out and...

the rocks are exposed on the coastline?

This video is of the tsunami wave action on March 11, 2011 off Diamond Head, Oahu, Hawaii after the 9.0+ great quake off Honshu Japan.  The video is taken at nighttime by KITV Honolulu.

An event on one side of the planet causes a big tide change off Diamond Head and then the water over floods seconds later.

People watch the waves but it's actually not just the waves that are important.  It's the average water height that matters more.

The silver tide was out yesterday afternoon.  

Watch for the tide coming back in.

Silver tsunami April 2012?  

NW VIEW's picture

SIGN OF THE TIMES

Oh how I loved the 50's.  Several of us would find a job on Saturday morning so we could make 35 cents, walk or hitch hike seven miles and go to the movies.  There were always two films and cartoons in between.  Westerns, and many other clean films.

Last evening we went to a G rated cute film and I noticed the lobby was filled with our youth.  Our movie had only the six of us and one other family.  I asked who the kids were that we in the lobby.  I was told they had been there for hours and would wait until midnight for "The Hunger Games". The pre-movie advertisements in our G movie were all witchcraft.

My 35 cents in silver of the 50's would still pay my ticket of $7.50 and leave enough to buy 1/3 of a bag of popcorn. Therefore the cost if the movie is the same but where the youth have been led has changed and it will take "big medicine" to deliver them.     jmo

ouchtouch's picture

Form 8938

If you hold CEF, GTU, PHYS and the like in a U.S. brokerage account, my interpretation is that you do not need to list them on Form 8938.  The government already knows about them through your broker.

ClinkinKY's picture

Holy (Chicago) Jesus

“Suddenly we heard the President talking to the staff of the restaurant—he was in the building! I think we all stopped breathing.

http://www.barackobama.com/news/entry/dinner-with-barack-it-certainly-can-happen

Dr G's picture

Finally some sort of

Finally some sort of movement. Silver is oversold like crazy.

In regards to what Santa has posted about money in other countries and citizenship, I think it's the wrong philosophy. It isn't getting any better anywhere else. Best to be where you speak the same language and can find a group of like-minded individuals to spend time with.

I like projects. Rebuilding after the financial devastation will be quite the project to undertake.

Number 47's picture

New thread

New thread is up

Be Prepared's picture

Thanks Number 47!

The New Thread is up.... so this is the Official Last Post!

Syndicate contentComments for "Party Likes It's 2009"