Party Likes It's 2009

I don't know if anyone else feels this way, but I've been having a strange feeling of deja vu and I couldn't seem to place it. I was standing there this morning, making some coffee, when it hit me. This is late 2009 all over again. If you were trading and stacking back then, I'm sure you'll recall that painful period. If not, let me give you a little refresher.

Where were you in late 2009? Were you listening to this:

Or in line to see this:

I know where I was...I was making some serious cash. In July of 2009, gold was trading in the low $900s. By Thanksgiving of that year it was near $1200 and Turd was flush (no pun intended). And I will never, ever forget where I was when gold peaked. I was reading ZH and watching Fox Business when I saw gold trade at 1225 and read a headline on ZH that the Bundesbank was going to be announcing a huge gold purchase in the morning. My personal sentiment indicator went to 10+. Unfortunately, that didn't work out so well. Beginning the next day, gold began to roll over, instead, and by the first Friday of December, I was doomed. The BLSBS report came out and was spun into good news. Dreams of "green shoots" and a "recovery summer" soon took over. The POSX shot higher and, over the next 3 months, rallied nearly 10% from 74 to 81.

The resulting decline in gold was brutal. First, it had peaked at $1226 and Santa had promised an "angel" at $1225 for years. The fact that I'd let greed overcome me and consequently didn't sell at $1225 was crushing and when gold rolled back down through $1100 in January, I was seriously depressed. All of the same old AGAs were claiming that $1225 was a blow-off top and that gold was soon going to be trading back below $1000 and was probably headed back toward $800. I was sick, Mister Hyde was furious and it seemed like all was lost.

But we didn't quit, we didn't give up. I knew that the whole "recovery summer" thing was a joke. The U.S. economy wasn't going to recover, the best it could do was stagnate and limp. The MOPE and the SPIN were so thick, I could barely breathe and when gold bottomed at $1052 in February of 2010, there was hardly anyone around who noticed or even cared. And that's the funny thing about bottoms, you rarely, if ever, notice them in the present as they are only visible in hindsight. With hindsight, we now know that the "green shoots" of 2009 became the dead weeds of 2010. All of the breathless proclamations by LIESman et al not withstanding, the facts, the math and reality took hold again by mid-2010 and gold finally surged back to the $1225 level in May and through $1225 in September.


My point is simple: We are currently in an identical situation. Gold surged to $1925 last September and, on 9/6/11, gold was ready to rocket higher on news that the SNB was going to devalue the Swissie by 10%. Again, sentiment was at the 10+ level and, again, we were within a few dollars of a Santa "angel" at $1936. Well, we all know what happened next and now, after six months of this brutal "correction" where gold has again fallen 15% while the POSX has rallied 10%, we are once again staring into the Pit of Despair. LIESman et all are screaming from the rooftops that the economy is improving and The Bernank is desperately implying that QE is over. Well, I call "bullshit" and I'm standing tall against them. Will you join me?

As I type, gold is at $1632 and silver is at $31.43. I've been maintaining all month that gold would likely bottom between 1600 and 1650 and that silver was headed to 31, maybe even 30. Why would anyone panic now when we are so close to the bottom. Always remember and never forget: THE ONLY WAY YOU WILL CONSISTENTLY MAKE MONEY TRADING GOLD AND SILVER IS TO BUY WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS SELLING AND SELL WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS BUYING. Period. Why is this true? Because this strategy essentially puts you on the same side of the trade as The Cartels, which as you know post-MFG, are exerting an increasing level of influence on the paper metal markets. It is clear to me that now --right now-- The Cartels are buying and covering not selling and adding. I discussed this yesterday in two, separate comments to the previous thread and they are reprinted below:

Back at the last highs of 2/28, total gold OI was 479,044. As of Monday's close, it had fallen to 434,226 for a drop of 9.35%. The last time gold total OI was at this level was 2/14/12 when price closed at $1718. Additionally, even back in January, we find higher total OI numbers. The week of 1/16 averaged total OI of about 439,000. Gold began 2012 with a price near $1600 and a total OI of 420,000.

Back at the price highs of 2/28, total silver OI was 115,866. Total OI was actually higher on 2/24 at 118,204. As of Monday's close, it had fallen back to 108,268 but actually bottomed back on 3/15 at 106,723 or a drop of 9.71%. The last time total silver OI was below 107,000 was 2/17/12 when price was $33.28. Total silver OI averaged about 103,000 in January after beginning the year at almost exactly this level, near 106,000.

Clearly, any "excess" open interest brought about by the early year rallies from 1600 to 1800 and 28 to 37 has now been wrung out. Again, this is just another signal that we are very near a bottom.

Crazy silver OI report basis yesterday.

Yesterday, gold was down $20.20 and total OI was down 3,200 contracts. Perfectly normal.

Silver, however, was down $1.12 yet total OI expanded by 3,154 contracts. ​ The July12 alone went from 12,404 to 14,018. The only deduction that can be made is that a significant amount of new shorts entered the silver pit yesterday. What we don't know is whether it was Cartel or spec shorts. The CoT on Friday will provide some clues but it is highly likely that these are spec shorts. Why? Because The Cartel typically only adds shorts to:

  1. Cap price    OR
  2. Attempt to start a waterfall/cascade selling event.

If only now we are seeing a huge run-up in spec shorts then we truly are very close to a bottom as the late-coming spec shorts will soon be fleeced just like the late-coming spec longs were fleeced on 2/29.

Total silver OI is now back to where it was two weeks ago, when silver was almost exactly $1 higher.

Ahead of the CoT on Friday, here is what we know:

Gold for the week 3/13--3/20 saw the total OI fall from 442,319 to 431,039 while price fell by $47 (2.77%).

Silver for the week 3/13--3/20 saw the total OI only fall from 111,730 to 111,422 while price fell $1.75 (5.2%).

Likely Conclusion: This week's CoT will be slightly bullish for gold but will show a significant improvement in the CoT picture for silver.

Anyway, the point is that is is always darkest before dawn and we are very deep into the wee hours. The global economies have not and will not improve to the point where we can "grow our way out from under the debt". No way, no how. In 2010, it took 6-8 months before logic, math and facts finally prevailed over hope, MOPE and SPIN. The truth will win again in 2012, you just have to be patient.

One more thing, I received some communication from "Winston" this morning and he provided some very helpful information. He is of the belief that the down move that began Tuesday evening and continues this morning is almost entirely related to April gold option expiration. Again, the Comex is now almost completely controlled by The Cartel as the only participants left are Cartel monkeys and HFT-WOPR momentum chasers. This allows The Cartel, which has full knowledge of the order books for both futures and options, the ability to swing price at their leisure and position price in such a way as to maximize pain for option holders upon expiration. Winston believes that the current target of their malice are not only the call buyers but also the out-of-the-money put sellers for April. Remember, gold was near $1800 just 4 weeks before expiration of the April options. A lot of traders believed that there was easy money to be made by selling out-of-the-money puts, the April 1650s and the April 1600s. Those that did are getting seriously squeezed right now and they are being forced to short actual gold contracts to hedge themselves. Winston thinks that the 22,000+ contracts between 1600 and 1650 are the true target of The Cartel here and that their ultimate intent may be to drop gold as close to 1600 as possible before expiration at the close of business next Tuesday.

What's interesting about this is how it fits right in line with all of the other "bottom signals" we've been discussing here as of late. A low near $1600 tomorrow or early next week would:

  1. Complete the drop to stout support at 1600
  2. Complete the right shoulder of a massive reverse head-and-shoulder bottom
  3. Bring silver down to 30-31, just like we'd envisioned
  4. Drop gold open interest levels all the back to early January levels
  5. Put the RSI and MACD indicators into deeply oversold territory
  6. Drive sentiment and our new TITS indicator to record low levels. Even Mister Hyde is once again suicidal and ready to simply cash out his IRA before it goes to zero. He'd like to take it in cash and go to Vegas where he can blow the rest on blackjack, Jack Daniel's and hookers.

And don't forget that lease rates have clearly bottomed and have significantly reversed. In September and December of last year, lease rates reversed about two weeks before price.

So, in the end, hang in there. I know it's tough and painful to watch everything go down when you know you are on the right side long-term. But let me assure you: This, too, shall pass. Soon...very soon...the metals will bottom and resume their inexorible march higher. Of this, you can be certain.



dmanson's picture

Tax form 8938

I also have some questions on this.  I started a topic in the forum hoping some others would chime in and give advice.  I do not know the answer to your question but I have similar ones.  

Odin's picture


...If the past year has taught us anything it's that these takedowns come hard and fast... I'll have my finger hovering over the sell button past $40... Thanks Turd.

RE: Hard to say

Turd Ferguson's picture

We have our answer


regarding O'bottom's recent Executive Order...and it's not good. PLEASE read.

ScottJ's picture

Re: World Problems

Seems to be a lot of them out there these days...

No need to cheer on destruction of the worldwide economic system...

It already has enough going for it...

Something needs to be done... that is productive and proactive...

Being to extreme on one side (no matter what side it is) is not the solution...

Wide perspectives and great understanding of cause and effect must be understood....


dmanson's picture


Just read this:

What country is this?  Nazi Germany?  This is the kind of stuff that makes me want to cut my losses and move to some island somewhere or expat community and renounce my citizenship.  This is total insanity and absolutely destructive.  :(

zman's picture

TechTrade,  let us

TechTrade,  let us know when we should sell, 1924 oz will be the next high for gold, will you be selling?

No one knows what the highs are going to be, we might go right past 1924 and shoot to 2300, what if you are a seller at 2000, what next?

Maybe taking a certain percentage off the table into a rally would make sense, but with physical, who is going to bother?

Most here are not going to trade the paper market, we know what happens to players that do. 

Magpie's picture

Peak oil, or not

I doubt I'll live long enough to know whether the peak oil is real, or not.  But the one thing that bugs me is who benefits the most from the peak oil meme?  The answer to myself is always Big Oil, and their Rothchild owners.  What better way to keep prices high by saying "it's almost all gone"?  I've seen all the charts, and the maps in Saudi Arabia where they're using water to force oil out of the ground, and I know it looks like bad news.  If most of the "news" we see and hear is lies and propaganda, why can't peak oil be part of the same plan?  But we don't really know what they know............why can't they have oil fields, known to them, but untapped, that they are withholding from production?

It's gotten to the point, for me, when they say "truth" I say "lie".

(But that doesn't mean I'm right!  laugh )

CaribSurfKing's picture

Oh F***, David Icke was right....

Ha ha ha. Its the reptilians coming out of the ground. Oh wait, I had firehouse chilli last night, and its not April 1st! Send in TAPS! These guys are idiots!

Orange's picture

Silver Lining (?)

Trying to see something positive, doesn't this executive order show that Obummer is worried about the grass roots movement against his policies. 

Protect your Freedom, speak up louder.

Igiveup2's picture

Storing your stash

This is late on the thread so I may post it again on the next one.  It took me all day to write so here goes.

First let me state that I presume at some point in the my future, someone from our illustrious government will be standing before me, reading this post to me, as well as any number of other posts I have made and asking me questions I would prefer not to answer.  Anyone who believes they have made a posting on the internet that cannot or will not be traced back to them is a fool.  That being said, I will begin.

This site is about preparation.  There is a ton of good information on this site but there is also a lot of bluster and nonsense.  No one here is going to shoot it out with any authorities over anything and no one is actually going to try and explain their stacking activities away by suggesting it all went overboard.

Several people have been asking for ideas relative to safeguarding their stack.  I would like to put my two cents worth in and you can all do with it what you will.

There are three potential thieves who pose a risk to your stack.  They are the thief in the night, the armed robber and the government.  How you protect your stack depends on which of the three you perceived to pose the greatest risk.  I will address them individually.

Thief in the Night

This is someone who breaks into your home while you are not there.  They may or may not know you have a stack, they’re just a thief.  To protect yourself from this person, you simply need to hide your stack.  How do you hide it?  Let your imagination be your guide.  Examples that quickly come to mind:

  1. Don’t keep it at your place
  2. Bury it
  3. Hide it where no one would ever think to look (be creative: in walls, in ductwork, inside furnace or air-conditioning unit, in septic tank.  Think of somewhere someone would ignore because it would be too hard to look there or too disgusting)
  4. Disguise it as something else

Generally, these guys are looking to get in, get out and leave with something of value.  You simply make it hard for them to find and they likely won’t.

Keep in mind as you decide where you are going to hide your stack that fires and natural disasters do occur.  A stack hidden on the second floor of a house that catches fire will wind up scattered around in the basement.  A little hard to find in the rubble and you might bring a lot of attention to yourself sifting through the remains of an entire house explaining to everyone that you are just looking for your keys.

The Armed Intruder

This is someone who breaks into your house while you are there.  Generally, if that happens, they weren’t one of the types above who made a mistake.  This person intended to confront you.  They will very likely take you by surprise so armed resistance on your part is likely not going to be an option.  As a matter of fact, I would recommend against it.  The risk is too high.

Again, this person may or may not know of your stack.  If they don’t, what you did above will probably secure your stack.  It is a good idea to have enough cash in the house to “satisfy” this thief.  Where and how you live will determine what the thief will consider “satisfactory”.  Have this hidden so they cannot readily find it but make sure you give it to them before they decide to tear your place apart.  Having a “satisfactory” amount of cash on hand may also discourage them from stealing jewelry and other valuables as cash is cash and the rest of the stuff takes a lot of work to convert to cash.

If they know you are a stacker, you’ve got some “splainin” to do.  I would suspect this criminal to be a bit bolder than the first type and not easily persuaded.  Protection of your stack in this case will depend on how persuasive your explanation is.  Ideas:

  1.  Have a bank lock box key.  Show them the key and try to persuade them your stack is at the bank.  They aren’t likely to allow you to leave to get it.  Just too risky for them.  However, if you have a key, maybe some of your stack should be in the lock box and if you are force to go get it, you have something to get.
  2. Have paperwork in a file showing what you bought and when and additional paperwork showing when you “sold” it all.  You have a computer.   Scan and markup your original documents or create some from a “coin show” you went to.  They cannot take what you no longer own.
  3. Have a small stash separate from your other stash you are willing to give up as insurance against having to give it all up.
  4. Have a copy of a letter you gave to your out of state relatives explaining how you want the stack they are holding on your behalf to be distributed upon your death.  You should also put in the letter that if they receive a phone call from you about the letter they should call the police.  Write the letter as though you really did give it to them to keep.  You want to convince the thief you don’t have the PMs on site and cannot readily get to them.
  5. A combination of all of the above.

Your sales skills at this point will be paramount.  Nothing you have is worth getting killed or maimed for so, do what ya gotta do.

The Government Thief

This is your worst nightmare.  They will either take it or tax it away.  If they show up to take it, they will be there because they know you are a stacker.  They might even know exactly how much you have based on sales records, internet postings, someone you told, wiretaps or any other number of sources.  They are mean, nasty, powerful, determined, all knowing and extremely hard to persuade.  You will have only two choices with this thief.  You will either give your stack to them or persuade them you do not have it. 

The only way you will not have it is if you either sold it or gave it away.  If you claim to have sold it, you are going to have to show them the proceeds from the sale.  They will have access to all of your financial records so they will want you to show them where the proceeds went back into the bank.  You can try claiming that you kept the proceeds in cash but at that point, they will simply say “let’s see the cash”.  If you try and claim you pissed the cash away, you’ll have to prove to them that you had the opportunity to do so.  Receipts from a Vegas trip, the name of your drug dealer, the names of your table mates at a poker tournament, whatever.  You won’t win with this approach.  Lastly, if you claim you sold your stack, they will ask you to show them on your tax return where you listed the transaction.

The only way you will be able to keep these people from your stack is if you still own it but do not have access to it.  It has to be in storage in another country. 

I have done all of the above.  I have a son in Europe.  The majority of my stack is over there and I have all the paperwork to prove it.  In addition, I have physical with GoldMoney but understand that may or may not be mine in the future depending on circumstances.  I have a trading account and use that to trade changes in the price of gold and silver.  I have “sufficient” cash in the house to give to an aggressive intruder as well as some palladium bars and coins.  It is hidden where it likely cannot be found in a fireproof box that will not wind up where I cannot find it in the event of a fire or natural disaster.  I have verbally told my son and daughter all of the pertinent facts regarding my PMs.  One lives in another state and the other in another country.  My son is a resident alien in the foreign country and our bank accounts are linked.  If I needed immediate access to the PMs and their proceeds, I could have him sell them and I could have the cash tomorrow.  In addition to PMs, I have CDs in foreign currencies through EverBank.  You can open the account online.  Now would be a great time to buy.  The dollar is higher now than it was when I bought but it is still a good idea to have an additional hedge against the dollar.

I like most of you believe the present course being taken by the Fed and our government is not sustainable.  I just read the Fourth Turning and found it to be one of the most fascinating books I ever read.  I am convinced the authors know what they are talking about.  I recommend the book highly.  I believe we are all on the short path to a future which will boggle the mind.  Stacking is one item on a lengthy list everyone here should be working on.  We will need our resourcefulness, our friends, our family, our preparedness as well as our PMs to shepard us through this future.      

If I’ve overlooked something, it won’t hurt my feelings if you add to this.

CaribSurfKing's picture

Very warm March, expanding granite

Move along

Orange's picture

Respectable American

Check this guy out. He had to cut costs so he laid himself off.

We should have more of these guys in Government.

Speak Louder and do the right things.

labestiol's picture

@Bugsy : I guess this is the

@Bugsy : I guess this is the video you're talking about

Keg's picture

Executive Order

For some time I have feared that if BO thought he would not win re-election he would create some black swan event to either help his re-election (voters tend not to want to change Presidents during a war) or give him an excuse to institute marshall law.  Is this executive order a precursor to this?  

Or, does he think when Iran is attacked by Israel, with or without help from the US, that Iranian agents already placed in the US will activate and cause havoc?

Or is it both?

onewileyz's picture

This is a repost

from August 18, 2011 from pbreed. I found it to be so profound, I printed it out and stuck it in a drawer for reference at at a later date. Today is that later date. I hope I'm not in trouble for the repost, but pbreed's words are just as relevant today. Thanks! 

Thoughs for the day repost.

Hat Tip!

In some ways it seems rude to repost one ideas into a new thread, but I think this is worth a general discussion and it was two posts from the end of the last thread so I've reposted it.

Shall we stack or consume?

We stack our PM's we delay our gratification, we protect ourselves. When we stack are we contributing to the general world wide depression? If I buy myself a nice lunch a whole chain of people benefit, the waitress, the cook, the grocery seller, etc.... If instead I buy an oz of silver who benefits?  Am I just sending my hard earned FRN to  the powers that be who own the vast majority of precious metals?  Am I an unwitting pawn in a big game?  If I take tubes of silver eagles and pretend they are gold eagles, in one hand I can hold more value than an average house!  A single tube of AGE is worth more than most cars one will see driveling on the road.  Have we slowed down the economy with our fear and hoarding? (See: A PM coin, I cant eat it, it does not take me places, it just stis there and is not really that entertaining. Would I be better off to take 100 oz of silver and buy myself a nice cruise to someplace I've never seen?  Would my world be better if I spent that FRN in my local community, got a hair cut, a new pair of shoes, paid to have my truck detailed? Are my actions willing into being the very thing I fear?

ZH,TF, news and depression

You are what you eat. What am I feeding my mind? As I watch the slow motion economic train wreck that is consuming the world, I spend hours reading ZH, Turd, Harvey and Dan. I gather pearls of wisdom from the smart, honorable, competent people that inhabit this space with me. I'm entranced by it all, its destroying my productivity. Instead of going for a Run this morning I eagerly read the latest news. My work projects are all behind, instead of doing something fun at lunch I went by the coin shop. Are we all part of a mutual  Jim Jones cult slowly feeding each other poison mental cool aid? I feel I'm more informed about what is going on in the world than I have ever been, yet I find my self depressed. Would I not be better off, if started watching TV again? Maybe I should get excited about how the Chargers will do this year?  There is a recent study that says seeing boobies is healthy for men, maybe instead of reading Turd daily I should go to the local strip club and watch nubile young boobies bounce around.  I could go out into the machine shop in my garage and invent something that has never existed before.  Yet I'm mesmerized by this whole doom and gloom community. 

Should we party Now

Suppose all the conspiracy scenarios and bad news here and on ZH are 100% correct. Does it actually help me to know about them?  Do I really want to live in a Mad Max world?    Would the overall enjoyment of my life be better if I was less responsible? Do I go forth and partake of the modern magic while its still available?  Go see more of the world?  Buy a nice boat?  Become a Tequila snob? Drive a really cool car?  Start planning the ultimate Halloween decorative transformation for my house? Treat my self to s birthday flight on the zero G plane?  Am I really going to be happier hiding in my well stocked bunker if the SHTF? Or would it be more fun to take the next 12 months and see the Taj, Machu Pichu ,  the Panama canal?

I mean no disrespect, but I'm starting to think that this community might not be good for all of us.

Thanks again!

Tecumseh's picture


Numismatics have a place in a physical metal portfolio for at least three reasons.  First, if we do not, by some miracle, enter into a TEOTWAWKI collapse scenario, the numismatics may well be a better investment than bullion.  In other words, if bullion stops at $2500 in, say, 2014, the numismatic quality coins may appreciate well beyond both bullion value and purchase price (granted, numismatics depend on each invididual coin).  Second, even if gold and silver skyrocket through 2015, there simply is no way, barring total social and political collapse, that the market for numismatics dries up.  Indeed, that may well become the hottest market of all.  Third, if there is a confiscation, it is possible, maybe likely, that the government will not confiscate numismatic quality coins (especially graded, "collectibles").

If you have $50,000 in physical bullion, and $10,000 in junk silver, the upside potential of owning another $10,000 in numismatic quality coins far outweighs the risk.  At the very worst, you get bullion value in a total collapse scenario.  And let's be honest, if we get to that scenario, I am not sure bullion will be worth its weight in lead.

SRSrocco's picture


Magpie.... you bring up an excellent point.  It is a valid argument that if the Central Banks and Govt's of the world are manipulating all sorts of data, why not OIL DATA as well?  I believe they are.  Unfortunately, this manipulation is in the wrong direction.  The US Govt is manipulating the REAL VALUE of things like oil, gold and silver downward and propping up FAKE VALUES like Stocks, Bonds and Retirement accounts.

Let me give you an example:

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.


The reason why we can believe in PEAK OIL DATA is due to the fact that there are no longer any OIL GUSHERS that were found in the late 1800's and early 1900's.   Also, the declining EROI - energy returned on invested shows us that it matters not what is a form of currency, but that the cost to produce energy has declined from 100/1 in 1930 to about 8-10/1 today in the United States.  This means that it only cost 1 barrel of oil to bring 100 barrels to market in 1930 as OIL GUSHERS were extremely profitable due to their high pressure and ease of producing.  Today it takes the cost of 1 barrel of oil to only produce 8-10 for market.

Today with SHALE OIL EROI of 5/1 or less, it takes a great more energy and technology to produce this oil.  We would not be INSANE enough to be drilling for SHALE OIL or TAR SANDS 2-4/1 EROI if there was plenty of LIGHT SWEET CRUDE sitting around for the taking.

Furthermore, this is also true in the mining industry when we look at FALLING ORE GRADES which I have shown in two of my PEAK SILVER articles.   Ore grades are falling all over the planet in all metals.  Thus, it becomes more expensive to remove this ore each passing year. 

This EROI & DECLINING ORE GRADE DATA cannot be FUDGED all that much.  It is also true that there is only a fraction of VIRGIN FORESTS still around and only 10% of the massive FISH &  MAMMAL biomass of the oceans remaining.  If we think all it will take is more technology to remove the remaining 10% of the fish and mammal biomass of the oceans... we need to be taken out by massive solar flares.

I hope this sheds some light on the REAL WISDOM behind Peak Oil and the Declining Ore Grades.

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Executive (dis)Order

To sum up, just so we understand what this executive order means:  If there is an "Emergency", as defined by the government, then the government is immediately empowered to do anything and everything it wants without limit.  All property can be seized, all rights can be suspended, and the rule of law instantly becomes whatever any unelected government hack says it is.  Got it. 

Whatcha gonna do?   Whatcha gonna do when they come for you...?

dropout's picture

Over - Exuberance

Caution is to be exercised. Turd would be the first to recommend such a condition.

After all, even he has been wrong and has freely admitted so here. Don't get me wrong. I'm a loyal "Turdite" and have been, since reading him during the first days of 'zerohedge' after following 'Tyler' from 'seekingalpha.' 

Pappy said "don't put all your eggs in one basket." Good advise still. Here are two sites amongst the many that I follow, to get as wide a picture as possible before putting my hard earned fiat down.

Any major reversal or further breakdown must be taken in context with the news of the day.  

Mantis's picture

short silver

Looks like a trap! If you buy you'll get wiped out. If you must buy gold only buy about 5% of your portfolio, I recommend GLD. Stay away from silver its too volatile. I'm going to put my money into a mutual fund.

b0t dis1nf0 ;)

dropout's picture



Odin's picture

O'Bottom's Treason

...It's obvious that the government is fully preparing for a coming catastrophe,

one they must truly believe has a high probability of occurring. The question then 

becomes, is it the catastrophe that we in Turdland have all been predicting

(the collapse of the dollar, hyperinflation, depression, etc.), or is it something even

worse? Lot of strange things happening in the world lately…

tpbeta's picture

@pbreed - watch the Paranoia Index

I noticed on Zerohedge round about Xmas that as their predictions about imminent European meltdown became increasingly inaccurate, the more vociferously outlandish and paranoid their prognostications became. I now think it's quite wise to keep track of the PI in any given forum  as a valuable bearish indicator. I mean there's always shills around that will call bubbles during dips, but they have no predictive value. But IMHO the PI measures genuine self doubt.

opticsguy's picture

tax forms

IRS form 8621 you have to file every year if you want CEF holdings to be part of a passive foreign investment trust.  If you file the forms correctly, you can treat the capital gains as long-term when you sell (at least as of last year).  If you don't do that, the IRS can pretty much treat CEF gains as whatever they please.

This is info from my accountant and I can't vouch for it's accuracy.  On the yahoo! CEF message board 3-4 years ago there were some good discussions.

If you keep CEF in a self-directed IRA/401K, such filing is not necessary (per my accountant).

Dr G's picture

Meh, an extension for taxes

Meh, an extension for taxes is only an extension for filing the paperwork associated with it--you still have to pay up a close estimate of what you owe (or face additional penalties if the estimate is too far off). Whole thing is a sham.

Odin's picture

Speaking of CEF, what is it

Speaking of CEF, what is it with these funds consistently underperforming actually bullion spot price over the long run.... I mean I know you have to buy them when the premiums are low and that they are, in the end, still  a paper trade, but the variance is crazy in some 30%+ in the case of SBT...

GoldMania3000's picture

what ever happened...

to that fat boy person who kept posting silver will never get above $40 again.  so far his forcast has beat everyones:)

FriedEggs's picture

The Old

man is smart!

Not 'Oldman' - Rick's dad - but this old man... 95K in gold for classic car




amsterdam2000's picture

South Park

Watch the new episode of South Park 16x02. Cash for Gold!

Dr G's picture

The link that Turd posted,

The link that Turd posted, back to the ZH article, has me seriously bummed out. What a nightmare.

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