Turd's Index of Traffic and Sentiment

235
107
Wed, Mar 21, 2012 - 11:15am

Everyone knows by now that I use a lot of acronyms. In this case, however, I'm choosing not to because I don't want to mess up all of my search engine metrics.

Let's see, we've got FUBMs, WOPRs and the LHSI. We've even got the EE and the BLSBS. To this list we officially add....uhh-uhmmm...well, you get the point.

Our new indicator attempts to combine the traffic level of this site with the overall sentiment of its readers. Multiply this number by the price of silver and you get a rather useful new measurement. It looks something like this:

(T + S) x P = TITS

T = Traffic relative to benchmark of 25,000 unique visitors/day

S = Turdite sentiment index measured subjectively by proprietor. (10 = Euphoric, 1 = Suicidal)

P = Dollar price of an ounce of silver

For perspective, the following table quantifies our new proprietary index

Date Traffic Sentiment Price TITS Value

8/4/11 1.32 6 38.20 279.624

9/30/11 1.13 3 30.05 124.107

11/10/11 0.92 5 34.20 202.464

12/28/11 0.98 2 27.28 81.294

2/28/12 1.33 7 37.21 309.959

3/20/12 0.89 3 31.83 123.818

Clearly, we have found another index which demonstrates that we are once again very close to a short-term bottom in price for the precious metals. Let's see if we can find a few other indicators which confirm our suspicions.

First, there are the lease rate charts. Note that both gold and silver lease rates have moved up rather dramatically in the past week or so. Then note that, since last September, the two bottoms in lease rates preceded bottoms in price by about 2-3 weeks.

How about some price charts combined with the RSIs (relative strength index). As you'll recall, an RSI reading near 30 is generally considered to be a sign of a price bottom.

Note that both gold and silver are resting right above what should be very strong support levels. Additionally, both are potentially forming rounded, cup bottoms. If these "teacups" develop and then coincide with the longer-term, reverse head-and-shoulder formations we've been predicting for the last few weeks, both metals would be screaming "BUY!", at least from a technical perspective.

Taken all together...the lease rates, the open interest (which is back to mid-February levels), the charts with RSIs and the TITS...we are obviously very close to a bottom of this latest, manufactured "correction". The charts give me a hunch that there may be one more spike down. Maybe gold spikes to 1625 and silver to 30-31 but that's it. Anyone looking to BTFD (another favorite acronym) should be ready and waiting to pounce if this happens. Regardless, we are very close to a bottom. Be patient and stay confident in your analysis and belief.

Lastly, no sooner did I print some crude oil charts than the Saudis announced that they wanted to ramp up production to attempt to lower price. (Is Ali Al-Naimi a closet Turdite?) The immediate effect of this was to lower price by about $2. Whatever. It just served to make the chart look better. Notice that crude has broken the short-term downtrend line that had contained it for about three weeks. Typically, after such a breakthrough, the commodity in question will dip back down and "ride" the other side of the line lower for a while before finally breaking away and kicking higher. The Saudi headlines accomplished this perfectly. Give it another day or two and I'm confident that crude will charge back higher, toward $108 and the $110. I would only get nervous if crude were to break convincingly down through $105 and $104.

OK, that's all for now. If anyone was offended by the content of this post, I apologize but that's the way it goes. If this analysis seems unconventional, that's because it is. This site is not, and never was intended to be, "conventional" and/or "politically correct". That said, so as not to further offend anyone, please refrain from posting images in the comments that would serve as suitable visual aids for our new index.

Have a great day. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  235 Comments

Magpie
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:26pm

Ant

A place to track Ebay coin sales. You need to scroll down a bit to see the charts.

https://www.24hgold.com/english/buy_sell_gold_coins.aspx?co_id=0


Mar 21, 2012 - 12:26pm

Check this chart

Similar to the much shorter term crude chart above, note that once gold broke through the trendline from the August highs, it inevitably pulled back and is now "riding" the line lower as support. Soon, it will skip away from the line and begin heading higher, again.

Be Prepared
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:32pm

In the Magic World of PufnStuf...

.... bad housing numbers are now bad for metals

.... increasing bond interest rates are now bad for metals

.... higher oil prices are now bad for metals

.... knowing USD is fiat and metals are sound money..... priceless!

worldend666
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:34pm

This is the gold price since

This is the gold price since July 2009 (red/green) overlayed with the google trends data for the number of people searching for "gold price" in any given day. Not much doubt that the rallies come after a period of low searches. The biggest drops in searches also preceded a significant drop in gold in most cases by a month or so. Quite useful no?

dharma
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:35pm

gold/miners

miners made lower lows, gold did not=divergence

mining indexes all put in a bullish hammer yesterday

hourly divergences on the mining indexes(i use 9 bar wilder- and have for 30+ years)

sentiment for the miners is actually negative , according to hgnsi was -15.7(new multi year lows) =the average adviser is recommending being short

nothing is certain, but there is a good chance the bottom is in

dharma

S Roche
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:43pm

HGNSI

Hulbert's Gold Newsletter Sentiment Indicator...is signalling a buy since yesterday when it plunged (-15.7%)

Pretty good contrarian indicator, tracks the recommended exposure by a series of Gold newsletters in the belief that they are invariably wrong.

abguy4
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:45pm

Children.......Consider yur bottom spanked

For all you cry-baby impatient hand-wringing whiners out there;

David over @ MILES FRANKLIN, posted this in today's letter.

Consider yur bottom spanked and you are now sent to yur room to pout;

David,

My feelings for what they're worth, If Larry Edelson's right, the Cartel can bring the Gold / Silver market down to say $ 1480 for Gold and $25.00 Silver. They probably feel that they can end "THE BULL RUN"! $2000 year-end Gold ? Lotsa luck. . .

Mark

Mark thinks it's as easy as listening to Larry Edelson. Here is my response to Mark:

MARK,

I DON'T TRADE MY PHYSICALS. I EXPECT GOLD TO BE AT OR ABOVE $2000 AND SILVER TO BE AROUND $50 BY YEARS END, SO THIS IS A NON-EVENT.

I OFTEN TALK WITH MY FRIEND, DAVID R. DAVID IS PROBABLY ONE OF, IF NOT THE MOST SUCCESSFUL PRECIOUS METALS TRADER IN AMERICA. HE HEADED UP TRADING DEPARTMENTS FOR SEVERAL BULLION BANKS IN JOHANNESBERG. HE WORKED IN THE TRADING DEPARTMENT AT BARCLAYS IN LONDON FOR A YEAR OR TWO. HE RAN THE TRADING DEPARTMENT FOR A MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR PRIVATELY OWNED HEDGE FUND IN NEW YORK CITY AND WAS IN CHARGE OF DOZENS OF THE MOST TALENTED METALS TRADERS IN MANHATTAN. LAST YEAR HE LEFT AND NOW TRADES FULLTIME FOR A VERY WEALTHY INVESTOR AND HIMSELF.

SEVERAL WEEKS AGO HE ASKED ME IF I WANTED TO ACCOMPANY HIM TO LONDON TO SEE JPMORGAN'S PRECIOUS METALS TRADING DEPARTMENT AND SILVER STORAGE IN LONDON. HE WAS GOING TO VISIT FRIENDS OF HIS THERE, AND OFFERED TO TAKE ME ALONG IF I WAS INTERESTED. DAVID CAN CALL UP THE HEAD OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF RUSSIA OR CHINA AND SPEAK TO THEM PERSONALLY. HE ISN'T WORRIED ABOUT GOLD, WHY ARE YOU? SIMPLE. YOU ALWAYS LIKE TO WORRY AND GET IN OVER YOUR HEAD IN AREAS YOU SHOULDN'T.

TAKE THIS FRIENDLY ADVICE --

WHEN BERNANKE SAID HE WOULD NOT RAISE INTEREST RATES FOR THREE YEARS, DAVID CALLED ME AND SIMPLY SAID, "YOU MUST BE LONG GOLD NOW FOR THREE YEARS, MINIMUM!" EDELSON AND THE REST OF THE NEWSLETTER WRITERS ARE AMATEURS! DAVID R. IS THE BEST OF THE BEST. HE IS A PROFESSIONAL'S PROFESSIONAL. HE MAKES A RIDICULOUS LIVING TRADING METALS, NOT SELLING NEWSLETTERS.

YOU HAVE SEEN THE "SIMPLE" CHARTS LARRY USES. I WILL SHOW YOU THE TYPE OF DATA THAT DAVID R. USES. (BY THE WAY, EDELSON IS VERY BULLISH ON GOLD AND SILVER AFTER THIS CORRECTION.) DAVID R. DOES NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANYWHERE NEAR EDELSON'S NUMBERS. HE SAYS THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT IN THE MID $1550'S AND A DIP SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT WORST, JUST A BIT BELOW $1600. A DROP OF JUST THREE OR FOUR PERCENT FROM HERE, SHOULD BE THE MOST GOLD WOULD FALL.

YOU ARE A CHILD PLAYING A GAME WITH OLD EXPERIENCED PROS.

HERE ARE MY LAST TWO EMAILS FROM DAVID R. - BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS, YOU SHOULD NOT BE TRADING GOLD AND SILVER. YOU ARE WAY, WAY, WAY OUT OF YOUR LEAGUE. I KNOW BETTER, AND SIMPLY DO AS JIM SINCLAIR AND RICHARD RUSSEL SUGGEST; I BUY PHYSICALS, DO NOT MARGIN OR LEVERAGE, TAKE POSSESSION AND SIT TIGHT.

REMEMBER, THERE ARE THREE MORE YEARS MINIMUM, AND PROBABLY FIVE MORE LEFT IN THE GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET. WE HAVEN'T EVEN SEEN THE REAL "ACTION" YET, WHEN THE PRICES ENTER STAGE THREE AND GO VERTICAL!

realitybiter
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:47pm

sentiment

The afternoon before the Leapday smackdown the "Fast Money" guys on CNBS were frothing over PMs...."don't sell SLW, hit the gas! buy more" Gartman: "sell oil, buy gold"

Yesterday, On Kudlow I heard them say that "gold is over, forever"...."look at the outperformance of stocks versus gold since October....this is a trend change."

So I took the advice and did look. The stocks versus gold price has performed this outperformance 13 times in the last 11 years. After every episode, gold rallied even harder. There analysis is flawed. Lots of emotion, no fact in their comments.

Who do you think is going to be paying 2, 3, or even 4 thousand dollars for gold? Certainly not anyone who paid 3 digits for it. The guy who buys 3 thousand dollar gold is going to be the guy who has never owned it, had owned stocks, rode stocks up hard, saw that stocks were losing ground to gold and now is desperate to pay ANY price for gold. They'll think, "3k is a small price to pay. I have to do something. It could go to 10 or even 20k!"

And the index will look unreal......When your index is so big that it can't be real, we will no that they are fake! I'm a nature lover. I like em a little saggy! btfd = buy the f-n' droop!

Stalin would be proud:

https://www.democracynow.org/2012/3/21/in_unprecedented_obama_admin_crac...

Number 47
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:48pm

@out looking in

Not just the Saudis having trouble, North Sea Oil production, which was falling at a fairly steady 6% a year. Last year alone production fell 18%.

All the blame is of course being directed at taxes stifling investment. Nothing to do with the wells being mostly empty and the stuff left needing high-temperature extraction techniques. No, nothing to see here, nothing to worry about.

On a related side note.

It's quite funny really when I hear all the talk about how Thatcher turned around the economy in the UK it is rarely mentioned that she didn't manage it through her policies, she just happened to come along right at the same time as North sea oil taxes started flooding the exchequer. Something that is always forgotten by the conservatives. By chance she came at a time that the UK went from oil importer to oil exporter.

Hold over
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:55pm

Tits may bounce up and down

Tits may bounce up and down but they always point the way forward. Nice tits make me happy. Even when Im broke they can make me smile.

33 and a turd
Mar 21, 2012 - 12:59pm

TGIF

Not the Friday one, but Turd's General Intraday Feeling.

It might also be worth researching (if possible) how the attacks are impacted by Blythe's menstrual cycle, a BMCLOT indicator if you like. Blythe's Menstrual Cycle Likelihood Of Attack.


Mar 21, 2012 - 12:59pm

More on total Open Interest

Back at the last highs of 2/28, total gold OI was 479,044. As of Monday's close, it had fallen to 434,226 for a drop of 9.35%. The last time gold total OI was at this level was 2/14/12 when price closed at $1718. Additionally, even back in January, we find higher total OI numbers. The week of 1/16 averaged total OI of about 439,000. Gold began 2012 with a price near $1600 and a total OI of 420,000.

Back at the price highs of 2/28, total silver OI was 115,866. Total OI was actually higher on 2/24 at 118,204. As of Monday's close, it had fallen back to 108,268 but actually bottomed back on 3/15 at 106,723 or a drop of 9.71%. The last time total silver OI was below 107,000 was 2/17/12 when price was $33.28. Total silver OI averaged about 103,000 in January after beginning the year at almost exactly this level, near 106,000.

Clearly, any "excess" open interest brought about by the early year rallies from 1600 to 1800 and 28 to 37 has now been wrung out. Again, this is just another signal that we are very near a bottom.

Shnozberries
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:04pm

So Joe Walsh is a silverbug?

I LIKE BIG TITS JOE WALSH
Gold Dog
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:05pm

I think a good look at TITS

I think a good look at TITS on a daily basis helps firm up my leading indicator!

Katcall4
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:09pm

Senators to Oils rescue! Hooray, saved again!!

Senators Urge CFTC to Set Curbs on Speculation in Oil Trading
2012-03-21 15:44:57.271 GMT


By Katarzyna Klimasinska
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. senators introduced legislation aimed at getting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to limit speculation they said has led to rising gasoline prices.
Senators Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, and Ben Cardin, a Maryland Democrat, said today their legislation would give the agency 14 days to implement rules to halt “excessive” oil-futures speculation.

dropout
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:09pm

Charlie is Eyeing the Exit

Charles Biderman of TrimTabs says, "insider selling is surging. The rate of insider selling to buying went from a 5:1 ratio in January, to 14:1 ratio of insider selling to buying in February, to 35:1 starting the second week in March!"

Also says, he is "eyeing the exit."

https://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/03/20/bidermans-daily-edge-32012third-con...

BostonMatrix
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:11pm

still laughing...

"If this analysis seems unconventional, that's because it is."

I tip my non-foam hat to you, sir.

btw: I heard some guy on the BBC radio last night giving some pre-UK budget chat about how inflation is down there and gave the example of digital camera prices falling by a fair margin since the start of 2012. He said this was due to mobile phone cameras being good enough now that people don't bother buying a dedicated point-n-shoot. His tone and angle was totally unquestioning, as if this will have a real deflationary effect for people.

Hmm... so as long as we measure inflation by the price of goods there is no demand for, everything is alright. Let's fill that CPI basket with fax machines, tamogotchis and other redundant items, then kick back and relax.

I have also just been informed that the UK govt. has also found a great way to gets its hands on more of people's cash: apparently public sector workers are about to be automatically enrolled in the pension scheme, rather than choosing to opt-in as per the current set-up. People wanting to opt-out will have to go through an annual form filling process if they would rather take personal control of their future finances. It just screams "we're skint". Which begs the question, what happens if the majority do choose to opt out and projected revenues are less than expected?

Straying From the Flock
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:13pm

Provident Metals

I use Provident from time to time, and when I went to their home page just now this is what they are linking to:

Inflation Man vs. Precious Metals | Gold and Silver Stand Up to Inflation

Just so Awesome that I had to share with the rest of you fine people.

RGD

dropout Katcall4
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:26pm

Oil, Moil, Trouble & Toil

Those evil speculators! What is the reasoning behind these senators?

Reason is great for understanding and for control if you are aware of all of the environmental factors that apply. Otherwise, you are attempting to use reason (knowledge of relationship between action and consequence in an environment which determines the rules) with absolutely zero clue as to what you are reasoning about!

More governmental interference into an already fractured economy, that has suffered an over abundance of interference from government! These senators badly require a feedback model of intelligent choice, but first that requires some intelligence to begin with! Which by obvious actions they do not possess!

Dr G
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:41pm

I really like the thoughts by

I really like the thoughts by the poster who mentioned formal QE coming sooner than later and the metals being rangebound until then. It makes logical sense that they will not be allowed to rise prior to QE. Certainly TPTB don't want to deal with $1800 gold prior to QE, which guarantees it goes to 2k quickly.

This also fits with our theory that the metals are not snuffed out completely but rather manipulated through a managed ascent.

exiledbear
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:45pm

Retirement, reschmirement

If it comes to you in the mail every month, or you have to see it on your computer - IT'S NOT REALLY THERE.

401k, IRA, Social Security - they don't really exist.

Well, OK, to keep the illusion going, they exist for the first 10% of whoever demands a cashout, but the other 90% just isn't there.

Biochar
Mar 21, 2012 - 1:50pm

LCS lingo... STS ratio

SRS's investment chart above got me to thinking, and I came up with the STS ratio,

Sheep To Stackers

What do you suppose the ratio is of Sheep who visit the local coin shop to sell their gold and silver jewelry vs. those Stackers who visit to buy bullion? 50:1? 100:1? Pathetic really. And it will indeed be quite a show when the masses decide they need to stack.

BUDDHA PRINCESS
Mar 21, 2012 - 2:25pm
FriedEggs
Mar 21, 2012 - 2:30pm

8 weeks

ago i've been asking/suggesting if PMs are rangebound - due to the very important other financial numbers that need to be met... and im just sticking to the idea - that it is.

Just stack, prepare, acquire, lock and load...

Visit the Army Surplus store for other items... im going this weekend... i want a ghillie suit.

.

Fried(e)

SilverWealth
Mar 21, 2012 - 2:31pm

regarding longer term

I disagree with Turd's post yesterday that FED has to print eventually.

We could get a serious dollar rally on "expanding economic growth" b.s. and the FED would stand aside and let interest rates rise. The dollar could then go to 90 and flush out any remaining commodity traders.

Sounds crazy but whenever I hear a gold and silver bull say 'there is only one alternative for the FED' I get incredibly uncomfortable.

Look over on the Pailin board. Somebody is buying tons of calls on the UUP yesterday and today. ANYTHING is possible in this thing. ANYTHING. Charts will not contain any volatility should the Cartel raid whenever. Support and resistance are props needed by traders to reassure themselves, nothing more.

I will expect the unexpected at any time.

SilverWealth
Mar 21, 2012 - 2:37pm
Dracula
Mar 21, 2012 - 2:39pm
Tecumseh
Mar 21, 2012 - 2:46pm

Clarifying Edelson

Just to be clear, Larry Edelson has not recommended selling core gold positions, even though he is anticipating gold to $1480 and silver to $23 or thereabouts. Just the opposite--he stresses to investors that they should hold their core gold positions. However, he recommends adding a SHORT TERM defensive hedge. He also believes he can come close to calling the bottom, at which point he will recommend adding to core gold positions for the long runup to $2500.

Ferd Torgerson
Mar 21, 2012 - 2:49pm

Turd, Maybe A Bad Precedent??

Hope you will consider the long-term impact of what you're doing with your new index. I'd consult California Lawyer if I were you but my guess is that, for you to use the index as a proprietary model, you'll have to trademark it as some sort of intellectual property. That means, of course, that in the registration process, you'll be required to pay some sort of fee - another form of tax if you will.

If that is the case, in addition to the taxes we now pay on income, capital gains, real estate, auto registration ad infinitum, your actions will mean that our country will be the first to levy a tax on, well, you know . . . .

Oh, well, I guess that's where we would have wound up eventually anyway. Those are some of the few things on which we're not already paying taxes. You've just accelerated the process.

Ferd

Mickey
Mar 21, 2012 - 2:58pm

I am getting to old

to handle any new thing like TITS.

KISS.

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
3/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)

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