Turd's Index of Traffic and Sentiment

235
107
Wed, Mar 21, 2012 - 11:15am

Everyone knows by now that I use a lot of acronyms. In this case, however, I'm choosing not to because I don't want to mess up all of my search engine metrics.

Let's see, we've got FUBMs, WOPRs and the LHSI. We've even got the EE and the BLSBS. To this list we officially add....uhh-uhmmm...well, you get the point.

Our new indicator attempts to combine the traffic level of this site with the overall sentiment of its readers. Multiply this number by the price of silver and you get a rather useful new measurement. It looks something like this:

(T + S) x P = TITS

T = Traffic relative to benchmark of 25,000 unique visitors/day

S = Turdite sentiment index measured subjectively by proprietor. (10 = Euphoric, 1 = Suicidal)

P = Dollar price of an ounce of silver

For perspective, the following table quantifies our new proprietary index

Date Traffic Sentiment Price TITS Value

8/4/11 1.32 6 38.20 279.624

9/30/11 1.13 3 30.05 124.107

11/10/11 0.92 5 34.20 202.464

12/28/11 0.98 2 27.28 81.294

2/28/12 1.33 7 37.21 309.959

3/20/12 0.89 3 31.83 123.818

Clearly, we have found another index which demonstrates that we are once again very close to a short-term bottom in price for the precious metals. Let's see if we can find a few other indicators which confirm our suspicions.

First, there are the lease rate charts. Note that both gold and silver lease rates have moved up rather dramatically in the past week or so. Then note that, since last September, the two bottoms in lease rates preceded bottoms in price by about 2-3 weeks.

How about some price charts combined with the RSIs (relative strength index). As you'll recall, an RSI reading near 30 is generally considered to be a sign of a price bottom.

Note that both gold and silver are resting right above what should be very strong support levels. Additionally, both are potentially forming rounded, cup bottoms. If these "teacups" develop and then coincide with the longer-term, reverse head-and-shoulder formations we've been predicting for the last few weeks, both metals would be screaming "BUY!", at least from a technical perspective.

Taken all together...the lease rates, the open interest (which is back to mid-February levels), the charts with RSIs and the TITS...we are obviously very close to a bottom of this latest, manufactured "correction". The charts give me a hunch that there may be one more spike down. Maybe gold spikes to 1625 and silver to 30-31 but that's it. Anyone looking to BTFD (another favorite acronym) should be ready and waiting to pounce if this happens. Regardless, we are very close to a bottom. Be patient and stay confident in your analysis and belief.

Lastly, no sooner did I print some crude oil charts than the Saudis announced that they wanted to ramp up production to attempt to lower price. (Is Ali Al-Naimi a closet Turdite?) The immediate effect of this was to lower price by about $2. Whatever. It just served to make the chart look better. Notice that crude has broken the short-term downtrend line that had contained it for about three weeks. Typically, after such a breakthrough, the commodity in question will dip back down and "ride" the other side of the line lower for a while before finally breaking away and kicking higher. The Saudi headlines accomplished this perfectly. Give it another day or two and I'm confident that crude will charge back higher, toward $108 and the $110. I would only get nervous if crude were to break convincingly down through $105 and $104.

OK, that's all for now. If anyone was offended by the content of this post, I apologize but that's the way it goes. If this analysis seems unconventional, that's because it is. This site is not, and never was intended to be, "conventional" and/or "politically correct". That said, so as not to further offend anyone, please refrain from posting images in the comments that would serve as suitable visual aids for our new index.

Have a great day. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  235 Comments

Larry L
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:21am

TURD

I stack when the prices get low like this

Eric Original
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:21am

rounded cups

Big fan of rounded cups here, just sayin....

tread_w_care
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:22am

TITS UP!

Gives new meaning to that old favorite euphemism . . . of a dead hog. Or something.

BrentLawrence
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:24am

A new acromym and a First!

Acro this one out: Fund to Underwrite Currently Know European Debts. This is from the guys over at extraenvironmentalist.com. They interviewed Nicole Foss from The automatic earth and she is still pushing deflation. I am still trying to work out whether we will have inflation or deflation. The two camps are very sure of their positions.

Silver Meddler
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:25am

The Dip Has Already Been Bought!

Hopefully it won't drop much further or I'll have to buy again!

Dr G
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:25am

First you are.

Turd, between you and I, I'm a huge fan of TITS. Just wanted to clear the air about that. Bummed that I can't post images.

In regards to oil, you nailed it. These manufactured headlines can't hold it down. It's at 106.50 right now, on it's way to 108 and then 110 and then 120 and beyond. A big move in oil, for whatever reason, might be the spur that gets the metals moving again.

Hoping to learn
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:28am

Clarification please

If your sentiment starts the day out weak or slow and increases quickly , would this be considered Perky TITS ?

worldend666
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:29am

If you are looking for a

If you are looking for a sentiment indicator try this one:

https://www.google.com/trends/?q=gold+price

opticsguy
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:30am

hey

I brought up the TFMR Karma Contrary Indicator last week. Not a snappy acronym, I know.

Boggs
Mar 21, 2012 - 11:31am

First Post

My first post and it's about tits...beautiful! Even at the highest value of 309.959 I have issued a strong buy and gentle hold.

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