Monday Evening Charts

Mon, Mar 19, 2012 - 5:02pm

I thought I would start a new thread with some fresh charts. Today's action in the metals was helpful but it appears that we still have some work to do before we can get excited about a rebound.

First, if it seemed that the metals were sluggish all day, it's because they were. Remember that, post-MFG, much of the speculative buying has been forced out of the Comex. So, for rallies to develop, we need some combination of these three things to happen:

  1. Cartel short-covering.
  2. Cartel new long establishment.
  3. Large spec (hedgie algo WOPR) buying.

Not much of #1 taking place right now as the recent CoT shows. Not much of #2, either. And, as long as gold remains below its 200-day moving average (near $1680), there's not much of #3. Put it all together and we're left with a day like today...a meandering drift higher that is easily subject to Cartel-inspired reversals to hold things in check. Absent some headlines to jam gold sharply higher, you have to expect this type of trade to continue. The charts seem to confirm this as the area between 1670 and 1680 shows quite a bit of resistance. Put it all together and it looks like gold will be stuck in this $1640-1680 range for a while longer.

Rather remarkably, silver looks a little bit better. Turdites will recall the seemingly endless battles that often center around the $33 level. Well, here we are again! Today's action was a very positive first step as silver was able to move up through and hold above $32.80, which is a number many of you will recall from earlier this year. If we can now build upon this tomorrow and extend these gains through $33, I think we can start feeling quite confident that the "right shoulder" is in for silver. Keep your fingers crossed!

Many have asked that I update the crude oil charts and today seems like a fine time to do it. Not only do the charts look pretty good, the war drums are growing ever louder. Soon, the U.S. will have 3 aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf area and reports surfaced today that the Russians have inserted some troops into Syria.

As you can see on the charts below, after breaking out in mid-February, crude inevitably fell back and tested as support the level which had been resistance, near $104. Several attempts were made to break it down but price rebounded on each occasion. Now crude has clearly broken through the downtrend line from the late-February highs. At this point, it looks almost inevitable that crude will soon re-test the $110 region and, should that level fall, crude will soar toward $115.

With a tip of the hat to our pal Trader Dan, I present to you the two charts below. Do me a favor and print them off. Hold them up to the light and compare them. Maybe some of you are even resourceful enough that you can plot these two together on the same chart. Note the incredible correlation of the two since late 2008. Coincidence?? Please. And please ignore all of the douchebag, hypocrite politicians and pundits who want to blame high crude oil and gasoline prices on the "evil speculators and oil companies". Are they going to blame the S&P rally from 666 to 1400 on ExxonMobil and Chevron, too? What a load of crap. As all of you know, the $10T+ that has been created, loaned, margined and spent over the past 3+ years is solely to blame for the rise in price of everything that is denominated in dollars. In fact, consumers should be grateful that gasoline isn't $5.00/gallon at this point, given that the S&P is at 1400. Oh, well, just wait...between the impending wars and the refinery closures that Jim Comiskey pointed out last week, gasoline will get there soon enough.

Lastly, the founders of The Screwtape Files have long been followers of this site. Though they are sometimes critical of some of the uber-bullishness of the PM community (occasionally justified), several of the posters there are long-term precious metal bulls. Over the weekend, one of them sent me a link to a research piece he/she wrote on gold and gold miners. After reviewing it, it seemed logical to post it here, too. Take a look, I think you'll find it interesting. (Though I have to admit, the avatar of the blue-eyed lemur, or whatever the hell that thing is, kind of freaks me out.)

That's all for now. Let's hope we have a peaceful overnight. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 19, 2012 - 5:13pm

Could it be?

Did I read the whole article and still get first?

Edit: I did, amazing! I strongly agree that the run up in oil is mirrored in pretty much all other risk assets. One need only price in gold to account for all this silliness. When you do, you will see that we are having extreme deflation in many sectors of the economy, brought on by economic stagnation.

The natural result of this is going to be falling production of EVERYTHING and a lower standard of living for everyone that doesn't own PMs, or is leveraged long on other fungible commodities (ie NOT Natgas, which can't easily be transported overseas).

Nick Elway
Mar 19, 2012 - 5:13pm


I often disagree with her, but Jeanne d'Arc is good reading!

"For silver, if you really must insist on playing with fire and giving all your money to brokers and your counterparties, my favourite of all investments, the situation is regrettably also pretty bullish." Nice!

Mar 19, 2012 - 5:18pm


Break out week? (for silver)

Animal Sacrifice
Mar 19, 2012 - 5:20pm



Be Prepared
Mar 19, 2012 - 5:21pm
Mar 19, 2012 - 5:23pm


Turd there are no real trading ranges in this stuff imo. You are too hopeful.

Wait for the waterfall attack and then respond. If its a criminal market how does a chart reasonably contain it? We are nearing a last leg down I think and Tuesday is moving day so should be an expansion day with some volatility and price movement. A chart will not contain the movement.

GDX unable to bounce. Like an old man attempting to mount Jessica Alba. As much as it tries, no banana.

If we do get a good criminal spike tomorrow I think we will get a turnaround and some real buying to finally come in. IMO

Mar 19, 2012 - 5:25pm

Thar She Blows!

The Greek Island of Santorini getting ready to explode.

Greek debt holders take over a 75% haircut.

The CME (at their request) vacates their European derivative clearing operation.

Russian military in Syria? False flag?

Iran blocked from the global banking 'Swift" clearing house.

Obammy signs yet more dictatorial power into law.

DHS makes a contract deal to purchase 400 million rounds of 40 cal pistol ammo. Why so much?

I could go on and on and... Why? Grab what ever PM's your remaining fiat will allow you and take physical delivery.

Because when this humungous, puss filled financial, militarist, fascistic, bubble blows ~ the resultant fall out will cover anyone not prepared with putrid, smothering, GGOS! (great gobs of s--t)

Mar 19, 2012 - 5:27pm

I'd like to point out a bright spot

That I think almost everyone is missing. Paper platinum traded higher than paper gold today for the first time in many many moons.

Platinum has always commanded a higher price than gold. Not to say there won't be more weakness or sideways action in gold, but I think we're building a base here for higher prices in all the PMs. Actually, for the past few months, I think you would've done better if you had bought Pt, instead of Au or Ag.

Goes to show you that the easy paths are all mined and the path to profit is NOT obvious. If it's obvious, it's not profitable, or at least won't be profitable right away.

Mar 19, 2012 - 5:34pm

Silver is so amazing... .99999 pollution free

You gotta love the white precious metal... which is now eco-friendly!

By using only water, oxygen, air products and a catalyst, the company has invented a new technology that processes any complex sulfide silver ore and concentrate with zero-emissions. According to Brian McConnell, CEO of Royal Silver Company, the new technology will change the way metals are produced in the twenty-first Century. “As far as we know, we operate the world’s only zero-emissions, poly-metallic smelter. Complex sulfide ores go in, pure metals come out, without a molecule of contamination released to the environment. Our process can be used in other mining districts around the world, which is why we patented the process in the USA. We have a large-scale plant waiting in the wings here in Bolivia, ready to go into service once we increase our cryogenic oxygen plant capacity.”

Mar 19, 2012 - 5:39pm

Keep buying...

Let me know when the purple line at least hits the green line. Until then, I'm gonna keep buying. Now going back to my hibernation.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, Aug 17, 2019 - 7:14pm
by sierra skier, Aug 17, 2019 - 8:30am
by Boggs, Aug 16, 2019 - 7:46pm
by Boggs, Aug 16, 2019 - 7:07pm