Gold and Silver Looking To Bottom Soon

Mon, Mar 19, 2012 - 10:02am

The Turd is back in the saddle and ready for another crazy week.

Whew, did I ever have fun in Friday! Got home Saturday in no shape to post a single thing then decided to simply take the day off yesterday. Let's see...what has happened in my absence?

  1. We have to start with the exclusion of Iran from the SWIFT system that began on Saturday. Megalomaniacal leaders full of brim and bluster like to spout "this is an act of war" all of the time (think Kim Jong-Il). This exclusion from SWIFT truly is. If there was going to be an "economic sanction" that was going to work, this would be it. Unfortunately, this isn't going to work and it will only serve to speed-up-the-lead-up to war.
  2. What the heck is this? CALawyer, if you have a few moments, could you please put this into English for us? I have a feeling I'm not going to like what you report, however.
  3. That cute little vixen, Meredith Whitney, is making waves again. There is absolutely no question in my mind that she is 100% correct. This looming municipal funding disaster is all part of the "QE to Infinity" equation.
  4. Our pal Jim Quinn has penned another outstanding missive that you should take the time to read. He even concludes it with our favorite two-word sentence.
  5. And while most everyone was either drinking green beer or watching basketball (or both) on Saturday, ZeroHedge snuck in this little beauty. Reposted here just in case you missed it.

So, where does this all leave our precious precious metals. Very close to a bottom I believe. Remember, our new pal "Winston" told us back on Thursday that spot/physical demand is such that we should see a bottom in paper price by early this week. The charts, the lease rates and the OI numbers are starting to bear this out. Let's start with lease rates. I didn't print off a picture to post but you can see them for yourself by clicking this link: . Note that both gold and silver lease rates have turned up rather dramatically and that this usually happens right before or during paper price bottoms.

Next, the OI and CoT numbers. By now, you've probably all seen the latest CoT numbers from Friday. They were kind of a yawner with no significant change. The OI numbers since last Tuesday's cutoff are interesting, though. Back on Wednesday, when gold was off $51 and silver was down $1.40, total OI in both metals fell to levels not seen since 2/17/12 when prices were $1726 and $33.29. This means "Mission Accomplished" for The Cartels. Back on Feb 17, prices had been stuck in a tight range for nearly three weeks as The Cartels were busily supplying paper metal, attempting to cap price. Prices then broke out the next trading day, following the 3-day weekend, and were allowed to rise rather dramatically over the next week and suck in all of the new spec longs that have now been officially fleeced. That we have now completed a "round trip" in both price and OI shows that a bottom is near, too.

How about the charts? Well, silver is showing the first signs of a bottom. Gold, not yet. Let's see how things unfold over the next 24-72 hours before jumping to any conclusions.

So, in the end, we are close...and getting a bottom for this "manufactured correction". The Turd, having survived 24 hours of debauchery, is back at his post, observing things with a keen (if slightly blurry) eye. Soon, we will likely be able to sound the all clear. Your Watchman will keep you posted.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 19, 2012 - 10:06am


How low will it go?

Mar 19, 2012 - 10:07am

1st maybe


Hope the NCAA Tourny was a blast Turd!

Eric Original
Mar 19, 2012 - 10:07am

Nice move out of Wesdome

Nice move out of Wesdome today, up 9%.

EDIT: Second! Otherwise known as "First Loser" LOL

Mar 19, 2012 - 10:08am
Mar 19, 2012 - 10:20am

Silver Bottom?

Thanks Turd, Silver should be ready to bottom soon since I bought last week! usually takes a dive after I buy.

Mar 19, 2012 - 10:27am

Bottom in Price?

Geesh. Let's hope not. Why do we want the price to bottom now?

Mar 19, 2012 - 10:28am

Hate the wait

This bottom is taking forever. I can't wait to get in some AGQ. Hurry up

Mar 19, 2012 - 10:30am

Information overload

I'm imagining I'm not the only one feeling conflicted here by diverging opinions on gold and silver.

Turd is anticipating a bottoming soon, along with his friend Winston. They have plenty of company.

Meanwhile, some continue to call for the long-awaited, oft-delayed rocket launches in both metals.

But Dan Norcini on KWN over the weekend says the charts look heavy.

Uncommon Wisdom Larry --posting from his hospital room, no less -- is thinking gold to 1580-ish and down, silver to 30 and maybe 25.

And so it goes. A lot of seers with large followings are anticipating widely varying near-term action based on their charts and/or in other market indicators.

What's a guy to do? Probably just sit tight and see what happens. Don't over-commit. Stay nimble.

Mar 19, 2012 - 10:30am

Filling this space . . .

Yeah, I don't have anything useful or valuable to contribute, so I'll just fill this space with numbers!

First, Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth, wait! A fifth? Of what? Mmmmm.

Oh, well. Sixth, Seventh, Eighth, Ninth, Tenth, Eleventh -- Aren't we getting somewhere fast?

Wow. We're really perking! Twelveth? Wait. How to spell that? Twelfth? That looks better.

Skip the next number because it's supposed to be unlucky.

Fourteenth, and I'm done for the day!

Mar 19, 2012 - 10:32am
Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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