Open Thread

Fri, Mar 16, 2012 - 8:03am

The Turd is going to be out all day today as I am leaving shortly to make a trek to an NCAA basketball tournament site. Lots of the usual noise this morning but nothing earth-shattering so I leave this thread open in the confidence that everyone will behave themselves and always observe site rule #7.

The metals were once again raided at 3:00 am EDT. Let's see if we can build some FULBMAs today and set the stage for a price rebound next week. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Number 47
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:08am


Well well

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:08am



Mar 16, 2012 - 8:08am
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:11am

Er 2


Mar 16, 2012 - 8:16am

Prepare mentally

Gold is going to the high $1,400's unless and until physical supply gets depleted. Any meaningful separation of the paper price from the physical price will only, once again, reduce the role of the Crimex in price discovery.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:18am

Hear hear!

Well said Atlee. (from the last thread)

Personally, I come here each day for the internet community--people who share, challenge and extend my views. I come here for news--posting links to important faster than any other site on the internet. I come here for Turd's analysis of metals and commodities, and ideas for how to prepare for life in a new world. Turd has provided forums for all sorts of colorful topics, and this comment box has decent functionality for posting images, links, videos or just typing in rants and encouragements. What a great place.

I don't want to label anyone as a poser, but we all have to consider what we add to this site. Numerous times have I started a post and realized that it either did not fit the focus of the website or add to the current conversation, so I erased it.

I have an agenda too, but Turd's blog is not the place for me to promote it.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:18am

Gold down -0.80% ..Silver down -1.20%

Good, we're back to the normal 'rate of exchange' between the 2 heavy metals today after a week of Gold being the hare and Silver the tortoise in price action some days... weird!

Still no response from Master Turd on the possibility of a downside Head & Shoulders pattern emerging and why he thought it was "invalid"

But Mr T kindly linked to General Jim Sinclairs latest thoughts on CNBC, sorry KWN Radio Propaganda, whose earlier Gold trading range of $1,700 to $2,100 prediction for the year was not as positively put forward as he'd previously claimed (ie. we could be in for a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern then"!)

As one of the worlds worst top/bottom/momentum/prediction pickers I'm not saying it could be which H&S shoulders pattern emerges but if Gentleman Jim (and very much more sheepish James 'Goin on a Tear' Turk) has reviewed his outlook to a certainly more sheepish one will Mr T not throw his hat in the ring on this one!

Are we allowed to go short in Turdville???

(Reposted from Previous thread)

Eric Original
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:21am

Have a great time at the

Have a great time at the hoops tourney Turd! Best way to keep our heads on straight about the metals is to just get the hell away from them once in a while.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:26am





End of work week #11

And its the day before St. Paddy's... get your green on.



Mar 16, 2012 - 8:28am

A SWIFT Cut Off Of Iran

I didn't see this posted yesterday.

This news should expedite a ME war imho. BIG NEWS!

With The Enterprise Just 4 Days Away From Arrival, A SWIFT Cut Off Of Iran

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/15/2012 11:27 -0400

Update: as we hit print, we see headlines that the UK will cooperate with the US on bilateral agreement to release oil stocks. Crude down big on the news, which is merely an advance move ahead of almost inevitable war with Iran, simply to make the spike more palatable.

The push to get Iran to do something terminally irrational (now that USS Enterprise in its final tour of duty is almost on location just off the side of CVN-70 Lincoln and CVN-72 Vinson in the Arabian Sea, where the US will shortly have not one, not two, but three aircraft carriers) is now in its final stretch. As AP reported earlier, Iran has been now entirely cut off from the global financial system, as that anchor of international financial transactions, SWIFT, has just taken Iran off the grid. This leaves Iran with just three options for international trade: making gold into a fully convertible currency, barter, or exchanging Rials for Renminbi and other local currencies.

From the AP:

The SWIFT global financial transaction service said Thursday that it was cutting ties with Iranian banks that are subject to European Union sanctions aimed at discouraging the country from developing nuclear weapons.

The action effectively enforces EU sanction because the world's financial transactions are impossible without using SWIFT, and it will go a long way toward isolating Iran financially.

The company's name stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. It is a banking hub crucial to oil, financial transactions and other trades.

In a statement, SWIFT said the EU decision "prohibits companies such as SWIFT to continue to provide specialized financial messaging services to EU-sanctioned banks."

"Disconnecting banks is an extraordinary and unprecedented step for SWIFT," Lazaro Campos, chief executive of SWIFT, said. "It is a direct result of international and multilateral action to intensify financial sanctions against Iran."

In other words: Iran, please

do your worst. And just to make it easier, the US has now stacked an entire armada of easy targets in close vicinity, which not even a naive fool can mistake anymore for prewar preparations.

Here is what the naval picture in the Arabian Sea looked like most recently, where courtesy of Stratforwe can see that not only is CVN-65 full steam ahead to its final date with history somewhere off the shores of Iran, but that LHD8 Makin Island crossed the Straits of Hormuz recently. Just because.

Virtually the entire non-parked naval fleet will be in the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf in the next 4-6 days, where 3 aircraft carriers and one big-deck amphibious warfare ship are just waiting for the order.

Hold over
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:29am

Turds gone all day, Lets

Turds gone all day, Lets PARTY!!!!! Whoooo Hoooo, what's he got in the liquor cabinet and fridge???Who's got the smoke???crank up the tunes!

Ahhh just trying to stay positive in a criminal market. Fuck em , silver to $10, gold to $300 Im a buyer!! Salute! (raises shot glass )Just go with it.

Go clear your head Turd , We got it.

Animal Sacrifice
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:29am


Getting better.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:32am


What tournament is Nebraska playing in?:)

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:33am

NCAA tournament, the perfect

NCAA tournament, the perfect distraction, AND American Idol, the Voice, and Survivor. Never mind the war and $10 gas, go back to your TV.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:34am


every time i look at the SP 500 chart i just laugh. Any one else get the giggles?

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:39am

Before I go, I had to chime in on this

If anything is an "act of economic war", it's this. Do not be surprised by an increase of hostilities once this goes into effect this weekend.

ClinkinKY opticsguy
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:39am

You forgot cancer--Geeze, lighten up.

NCAA tournament, the perfect

Submitted by opticsguy on March 16, 2012 - 8:33am. Hat Tip! 0

NCAA tournament, the perfect distraction, AND American Idol, the Voice, and Survivor. Never mind the war and $10 gas, go back to your TV.

Be Prepared
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:41am
Titus Andronicus
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:43am

Overnight party over for now?

Is the gold waterfall done for now?

So far, it's almost identical to night before last.

If today continues to be like two days ago, silver's going to have a bad day coming up.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:48am

Bullish silver

On Nov 16, 2011 Dominic Frisby (UK's Money Week) wrote an article entitled, "The Most Bullish Chart on the Face of the Planet" and that chart was for silver. In the article Frisby presented a chart showing silver in a massive cup formation on the silver chart from 1980 to 2011. He said it looked like a massive cup formation in the making. Guess what? Over the last six months silver has formed a handle. We now have a cup and handle formation AND an inverted head and shoulders formation for silver existing all at the same time. Need I say what is very probable from here? Got silver?


The Body
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:51am

The Black Sedans

From the previous thread, Turd commented: “I'm already keeping a constant watch for black sedans out my front window.” I have read the same sentiment from other contributors on the site. I think everyone here is fine… at least for now.

If Ron Paul can stand up in front of Ben Bernanke and stick an American Silver Eagle in his smug, condescending face and not wind up as a blurb on Page 5 as being the latest victim of alien abduction; if Lew Rockwell and Friends can daily dissect and debunk with mathematical precision every fallacious Keynesian argument ever dreamt up and not have the Mises Institute mysteriously blown into smithereens by a rogue asteroid, etc., I think the EE has bigger fish to fry than folks that contribute to this fantastic community.

If Judge Napolitano lost his knee caps; if Ron Paul gets abducted; if the critical thinking wizards at Mises are silenced, then it might be time to grab the stack and an extra pair of skivvies and head for the hills. It’s bad but not to that degree.

Keep the ideas flowing & the stacks stacking.


Mar 16, 2012 - 9:08am

The Top 5 Places to NOT be in a Dollar collapse

Unabashedly stolen from Max Keiser this morning;

The Top 5 Places to NOT be in a Dollar collapse

51. Top 5 Places NOT To Be In A Dollar Collapse
Mar 16, 2012 - 9:08am


Feel free to short whatever you like, but I would caution that TPTB know how to paint charts pretty darn well. I would wait until you see a COT report that supports your thesis to the downside, but know that in the long term that the prices will rise.

Manipulation always loses to supply/demand fundamentals in my experience. For a quick example that relates directly to the PM market look no further than the London Gold Pool collapse. They were successful then for several years and then it collapsed. Please give this a read as I think it is still applicable to today:

Good luck with whatever path you choose.

Mar 16, 2012 - 9:17am

Wow! Whistle Blowers unite!

"​Dear CFTC Staff,

Hello, I am a current JPMorgan Chase employee. This is an open letter to all commissioners and regulators.


I have a feeling the shtf is closer than we think...

btw..Hi everyone..long time since posting...TGIF...keep stacking

*** Edit...just noticed Tortuga posted this on the last thread...sorry for the dup ^_^

Mar 16, 2012 - 9:18am

Hi Jimmy

I'm the last person to start stating we're going to be in the continued downtrend since the $48 top instincts tell me the exact opposite of what the market usually does so i have little confidence in saying i know anything or what will happen

..but i've seen a number of 'downer' predictions including one of my favourite gurus, Martin Armstrong, who thinks we're still in for this downward draft

...and as of last night on KWN both Jim Sinclair (who i trust almost implicitly for his consistent accuracy) and James Turk (who i trust not a jot) both became very sheepish about the near term ...Jim barely mentioned his previous $1,700-$2,000 Gold trading range

..have you heard the interview?

Mar 16, 2012 - 9:29am

Wear your hat..

...and have a good time at the tourney.

If we see a guy with a huge yellow hat on we'll know who it is

Mar 16, 2012 - 9:37am


I have not, but I like you trust Jim Sinclair. I'm a stacker myself so I care little for the short term stuff unless I am going to go buy something over the next week or two.

My gut feeling is that there should be some stuff going on March 19th and the market reaction based off of that will determine the direction of PM's in the short term. What you essentially have are several members of the powers that be and the to big to fail banks that have taken different sides of a bet. Someone is going to lose, they can all be wrong, but they can't all be right.

In the short term I think today we will be sideways or level for the most part as people go into the weekend not wanting to short PM's cause they don't have a clue what will happen Monday. After that? Who knows short term? After a three or four weeks I see the price being higher than it is right now. Gold 1647 and Silver 32.53 currently.

I will go check out Jim's article.

Apples ClinkinKY
Mar 16, 2012 - 9:49am

RE: Nebraska

Nebraska puts all its eggs in one basket, so to speak, with its football program. But we do have Creighton in the tournament playing today vs. Alabama representing our area.

Mar 16, 2012 - 9:52am

Pos taking a shit kickin

Silver looking strong!

Mar 16, 2012 - 9:53am

NCAA Tourney

What site will you be at? Albuquerque, Omaha, Pittsburgh, Portland, Nashville, Columbus, Greensboro, Louisville?


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