History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Mar 15, 2012 - 7:57pm

promoting whistle blowers

Imo, it would serve nothing more then to make the site a bulls-eye.

They (WB's) would start coming out of the woodwork. Just imagine the implications.

Number 47
Mar 15, 2012 - 7:55pm


Kindly leave me out of your signature line. I find you tiresome at the best of times, I did on kitco, I see no difference here. Poor comedy is excusable. Constantly repeating it is not.

Perhaps you might try contributing something to the board instead of picking faults from those who contribute. Taking the piss does not show intelligence. When you're willing to stick your neck out and state your beliefs, I will read them. Until then, I'll keep on passing by your isolationist, bigoted, good for nothing diatribe.

Mar 15, 2012 - 7:44pm

Qui Tam Actions - Whistleblower Litigation

Whistleblowing is noble, and the incentives to do so are extremely lucrative. For an overview, look here.

"The False Claims Act (31 U.S.C. §§ 37293733, also called the "Lincoln Law") is an American federal law that imposes liability on persons and companies (typically federal contractors) who defraud governmental programs. The law includes a "qui tam" provision that allows people who are not affiliated with the government to file actions on behalf of the government (informally called "whistleblowing"). Persons filing under the Act stand to receive a portion (usually about 15–25 percent) of any recovered damages. Claims under the law have typically involved health care, military, or other government spending programs. The government has recovered nearly $22 billion under the False Claims Act between 1987 (after the significant 1986 amendments) and 2008.[1

There are countless attorneys that specialize in this area, and make gazillions of dollars. The last one I heard about involved Fannie or Freddi mac and a major bank, may even have been JPMorgue. In that case, someone came forward, and exposed the overbilling scheme, and the whistleblower is going to recover somewhere north of several million dollars, if I recall correctly.

HOWEVER, the major downside here, to Turd, and this site, is that there are plenty of crazies out there, and this site would quickly lose any semblance of legitimacy strictly from the sheer number of lunatics who would rush here to proclaim the latest sensational rumor.

Secondly, from a legal point of view, defamation, which is a common law tort, is actionable in a court of law, whether federal or state court. "Defamation" is a false statement of fact which tends to injure someone's reputation. If the defamed person is NOT a public figure, then the claim is easy to prove. If the defamed person is a public figure, then there is a higher burden to prove the claim. Win or lose, the costs to defend oneself would be well into the five figures, and beyond, depending upon the allegations.

It would be very risky to allow someone to post a topic here, or for Turd to officially take a position by promoting a particular viewpoint as one made based on fact vs. an opinion, purporting to be a statement of fact, that is, rather than opinions that can be argued if the information appears in a a comment.

Opinions are NOT defamation. Remember that.

Just something to consider, Turd, please.

Mar 15, 2012 - 7:31pm

Just dangling there...

...had to pluck it.


Number 47
Mar 15, 2012 - 7:06pm


I would also stay clear of whistleblowing dreams, look what happened to wikileaks, you have a platform here that is honest. Opening it to any manipulative documents that might be valid or may be doublespeak leaves you open to a whole new life of litigation that you don't need. You are already doing a great service here.

Don't jeopardise what you have created to try to accommodate what could turn out to be a thousand applications of whistleblowers you have no way of verifying, possibly on subjects you have no understanding of. Stick to what you know.

How would you deal with a source who wanted to disclose some kind of cancer ridden tampon? Can you be sure you are not going to be destroyed by johnson and johnson, pfizer, bp?

This is the reality, you don't know what you're going to get. Cali lawyer is intelligent but there is no-one else here who can protect you from the corporate shitstorm that you may end up with.

please think twice.

Mar 15, 2012 - 7:03pm

Europe's Gold?

Germany & Switzerland seem to have been very slow to wake up to the fact that their gold may have been 'vaporized' (like the MFGlobal cash). Chavez in Venezuela had first mover advantage last year when he decided to repatriate his country's shiny stuff. It remains to be seen how many more countries will be as fortunate in prising their property from the Fed & Bank of England.

Turdle GG
Mar 15, 2012 - 6:40pm

Turd help the whistleblowers?


my 2c: I'd steer clear of this if I were you.

You've made a name for yourself doing what you do here. Skills are reputations are not easily transferable, and you'd dilute your message if you went out on this tangent.

Stuff like that anonymous "JPM employee" rant on the CTFC website lacks all credibility. If someone wants to come up with their real names and hard evidence, they don't need you in order to do it. They can do it themselves or use other alternative media.

What you could do, through the network of contacts you've made, is to help potential whistleblowers find the right place/medium/support in order to get their messages out.

Mar 15, 2012 - 6:40pm
The Body
Mar 15, 2012 - 6:34pm

Re: 99th Monkey

If TPTB deemed AIG, the car companies, the Zombies, etc. too big to fail wouldn't that make the USD Too Pig to Fail?

The global powers won't let the dollar fall until there is no grease left to put on their nasty little palms. There is still an awful lot of wealth to be siphoned off using the USD as their hose. The Pig will be on global-sponsored life support for a long time.

Turdle GG
Mar 15, 2012 - 6:31pm

Thanks Turd and Winston


sounds like Winston and Eric King's London Trader are two good sources. Maybe you could compare notes with Eric?

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Pete, 1 hour 16 min ago
by Green Lantern, 6 hours 36 min ago
by 11IMIX, 7 hours 37 min ago