History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Mar 15, 2012 - 8:55pm

Is it over?

Is the bounce today short covering that will bring in new long positions or just a bounce on the way down to 1600-1620?

Mar 15, 2012 - 8:39pm


What's posted tonight at KWN by JS is troubling in that it is too vague for the claim. Not to second guess Mr. Sinclair, but that talk is all well and very logical, but I wouldn't put it out there without a little back-up on details. Does he know someone in Germany or Switzerland who knows this is part of the motivation to get the gold back ... is there really some suspicion about the Fed?

Again, all very logical in the deduction, but definitely the type of claim that can make you a laughing stock very quickly if someone needed a little ammo to discredit someone. Tread carefully, I say.

Mar 15, 2012 - 8:25pm




"No. 2, I share most of Ron Paul's principles, but perhaps y'all have not noticed that he is the Invisible Candidate. Why do you think that is? Because the media can't see him? Cataracts? Nope, it's because they know who signs their paychecks, and they cover what the signer wants covered. Assume the impossible, that Ron Paul is elected. What then? Assuming, too, he doesn't meet that convenient "Lone Assassin keeping a diary," how much could he change? How hard could he push against the entrenched bureaucracy, the defense establishment, and an economy addicted to defense spending, government money, borrowing, and inflation?"

Mar 15, 2012 - 8:21pm

I'm on board with Dr. G and the rest

The time has come. The markets are really, really genuine now. Obama is a hero. Not only have I dumped all my metals but I have taken a full HELOC out on my home and I am going in deep baby. The equity markets are where I have always belonged. After getting scraped up in 2008, I am back. AAPL was my first buy today....100 shares!! The banking sector is hot so I am all over that....LVOL , the low volatility ETF and SVXY the inverse double VIX, and home builders baby! America is back!!

I will be supporting Barack Obama 2012 and will be making a $10,000 contribution soon. I hope Chris Rock matches my donation. He's made up of the right stuff. In fact, I think its time to rename our leaders house....forget the White House....hello Milk Choco Crib.

Ahhhhhh. It feels so good to let it out. BUY BUY BUY the market....irrational exuberance is now the new normal and it here to stay!


bot.dis.info (cite: Dr. G)

Mar 15, 2012 - 8:12pm

Please remind me...

Wasn't there supposed to be some Anonymous thing this week? I don't remember what it was

Mar 15, 2012 - 8:08pm

@Turdle GG

Waking up to the truth when you've made millions sleeping with the enemy probably isn't that difficult.

Mar 15, 2012 - 8:07pm


The curved price you see tonight is following a psychological price average- lower. They often do this to keep volume out before a drop- that would have to be rectified now/this evening @ around 1653. Just have to watch.

They laminated everything green with red this morning, and daily is still hanging.

Mar 15, 2012 - 8:03pm

Piranha's and Greedy Bastards

This is part of a post I just put out at The Speak before I read that KWN/Sinclair piece.

"The believability and reliability of those who are supposed to be above board has definitely been breached and at some point these greedy, schizophrenic bastards are going to cannibalize and "Piranha" themselves and their credibility along with it. "


What I'm reading and interpreting for myself is that separately and collectively many countries are slowly reaching the same conclusion that "...if we can #@!&! over everyone else then it could happen to us." I think they no longer trust their own bonds or junk collateral they've been fooling themselves with and passing around like a hot potato.

Once planted, the seeds of doubt, distrust and fear germinate rapidly . This could get ugly quickly.

Did Hugo Chavez start the trend?

Turdle GG
Mar 15, 2012 - 8:00pm


Get off your high horse.

Having the balls to do the right thing is what counts, even if it takes 12 years to wake up to the truth.

Mar 15, 2012 - 7:59pm

RE: Whistleblowers

I agree with the post above that today's whistleblower looks like something one of us would have written. Why was it posted on the CFTC website? If you don't have the stones to add your name to it what good are you? How legit can it be without a name attached to it? If it is legit, then obviously this person still cares more about money (his or her job) than about doing the right thing. Trying to have it both ways- be a whistleblower and keep your job is just cowardice. You have no right to the moral high ground. Which brings me to my second point.

If these people blowing the whistle are such moral exemplars, then why did it take them so long to figure out that the institutions they were working for were corrupt?? I thought these people were the best and the brightest. Oh I get it. You're really smart but it took you 12 years to figure out GS wasn't the moral pillar you thought it was. Or maybe it coincidentally took you that long to figure out that your institution was corrupt while you made millions. It took you 12 years to figure that out? Oh that's right, they just got corrupt lately.

So what about these other critics of the system like Max Keiser who has admitted that corruption was going on but stayed where he was and made lots of money. Or did he leave right away? No one ever asks. How long was Nomi Prins at GS? Andrew McGuire admitted that his conscience got to him after piggy-backing on JPM's shorts. How much money did all these people make before they "figured out" that their respective institutions were corrupt, or perhaps even what they were personally doing was morally wrong? Yet no one has asked them this in public. They are all millionaires. If they are so morally pure, then why didn't they leave sooner and blow the whistle or offer criticism immediately upon seeing the corruption? It couldn't be that money comes first with all of these people that we hold in such high regard. If money comes first, then it's a non sequitur that you have the moral high ground.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Recent Comments

by Saxon888, 2 hours 55 sec ago
by DeaconBenjamin, 2 hours 39 min ago
by fssbob, 3 hours 21 min ago
by cashonly, 3 hours 29 min ago
by cashonly, 3 hours 52 min ago

Forum Discussion

by Pete, 1 hour 22 min ago
by Green Lantern, 6 hours 42 min ago
by 11IMIX, 7 hours 43 min ago