History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


The man who stole a leopard
Mar 15, 2012 - 9:59pm
Mar 15, 2012 - 9:41pm
Mar 15, 2012 - 9:32pm

@robov Re. GDX/HUI


Submitted by robov on March 15, 2012 - 1:51pm. Hat Tip! 1

Anyone else notice what appears to be any lack of response from the GDX and HUI as gold rallies. The GDXJ seems to have responded but there is great pressure on both the GDX and HUI. Are we not just seeing some short covering at these levels with an expectation of maybe one more push down? Any thoughts?

I think not only we're not seeing short covering... we're probably seeing more shorting. Ranting Andy has explained that the shorting of the miners is not done just for profit... It is a tool used by TPTB to contain sentiment/enthusiasm levels towards PMs.

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:27pm


what a dick!

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:21pm
Mar 15, 2012 - 9:20pm

Qui Tam Examples

Here is a short article on the subject.


The people who come forward stand to make a lot of money; but, it is not instant gratification by any means.

As far as my take on the so-called JPMorgue whistleblower, I hope to God it is a real, live person, who is actually telling the truth. However, my cynicism forces me to call bullshi-.

Any one foolish enough to go to the media with a story that is sure to cause consternation at the highest echelon's of the evil bankster cartel is EITHER fed up with the immorality and wants to purge his soul and conscience at what will almost certainly be a death sentence, OR a few cards short of a full deck.

Matt Drudge comes to mind, but TPTB ridiculed him, and no one took him serious. This insider at JPM, if he really is an insider, is risking death for sure. Why would he [or she] not just squire away some confirmatory proof of some sort, on a flash drive or what not, then simply anonymously tip Matt Taibbi or someone over at Breitbart? For that matter, why would not this insider immediately lawyer up? If the insider lawyer-ed up, the lawyer would certainly muzzle the insider to keep him [or her] alive long enough for the proof to be developed so that the lawyer could earn the fee.

So, something does not add up to me on this story.

I will say this, too. If the insider, whoever it is that posted the anonymous email about JPM, wants to hire an attorney, for sure email me. I will take your case right now. If your allegations are true, then I can RETIRE TEN TIMES OVER from this one fee. Do not delay, friend. Get on it now. <sarc off>

Otherwise, thanks for the glimmer of hope that perhaps justice will be done, but in the end, I just go back to stacking . . .

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:20pm

John Williams

Just finished reading John Williams update,and i have a couple of questions.He says "outside timing remains 2014,does that mean that sometime in 2014 we will have the hyperinflation peak or will it be just starting.He also states the inflation will be in the seven to ten digit range not sure what that means.Anybody help me with this?

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:19pm


I do hope what you say is true but then why are the premiums on physical not skyrocketing especially following smashdows? That makes zero sense. If the physical market was so strong we would see this exhibited I think.

And regarding Butlers interesting comments. The bullion banks covet and own alot of physical. The paper Comex game is used to hedge against their physical is it not. They constantly layer into prices as they fall by going long and layer into prices as they rise going short. You don't have to conspire to do that imo. They also have nearly unlimited borrowing power and capital potential across many commodities markets. This means they can continue to increase their short positions as the Market rises and even if it takes off. And it means they can buy endlessly in pyramids on the way down without much regard to how far it falls. With unlimited cash this is what you can do. And come on. There are zillions of commodity markets. Silver is tiny and Gold is not big when compared to some others. They can easily elicit rotations of funds from one sector to another should it be needed.

I am unconvinced by Butler's argument. The only real reason they ever buy the bottom and sell the top is because you would do the same in the game if you had unlimited resources, were the dominant gorilla on the block and were constantly hedging and rebalancing. Isn't that the correct thing to do in order to reduce risk to a minimum?

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:03pm


It's interesting how the whole whistle blower thing has quickly morphed into the media spotlight and on here as a subject. A somewhat divisive one in some aspects here and in the media.

What appears to be a real whistle blower (Goldman Saks guy) is being doubted and people in the actual business of PM's or securities (KWN comes to mind) are being questioned about their integrity and/or motives. This started about two weeks ago and has persisted as a theme.

I find it interesting and I'm not implying anything in the above posts. Just noticing the flow of it since Mr. Maguire was on KWN. I touched on it earlier in the previous thread this a.m.

How did it come to be that the plates of doubt were started spinning in the first place? I guess there's no real answer for that unless I were to go back to the threads just previous to the Maguire KWN piece. It started right around that time I think.

I also wonder if this subject is being discussed on some of the other blogs to this extent or if this site has a certain intensity to it and it's being dwelled on more so here then others? I guess there's no real answer.

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:02pm

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