History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


S Roche
Mar 16, 2012 - 4:18am


The Netdania exercise on daily spot gold the other day (Fibonacci Fan from Peak to Low, include the 78.6% button) and now have a look where we are...pretty clear the shorts are using it to send a message, painting that chart.

Titus Andronicus
Mar 16, 2012 - 4:21am

Very strange heavy volume moment in gold.

I'm seeing 10 minute volume in gold higher than anything we saw during NY Comex pit-trading yesterday (earlier today).

The volatility seems to have calmed down for now. But I'm showing over 6500 comex contracts within the 10 minute period starting at 3:10 am EST. (This is not the same thing as the bogus data that happens on Netdania from time-to-time. I'm seeing 6500 in 10 minutes, not 5 billion in 100 milliseconds.)

This is not routine volume prior to the EU open. Even for a beat down.

I don't see any news, so I'm just going to assume it was a particularly volatile smack down.

At this time, I guess it is just to try to jump start the waterfalls.

Or maybe there was some kind of strange banking event?

Mar 16, 2012 - 4:58am

@Magpie, cheers for link

Though was actually referring to https://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/08/hyperinflation-part-ii-what-it-will.html

@The Body - I have little reason to doubt what you say about the pig - but I'm in the land at the mercy of Merv the swerve's printing press...

Mar 16, 2012 - 5:08am

Reccomended Brokerage Firm?

I Bank with USAA and have some money left in my Brokerage Roth IRA fund that I dabble in the mining shares with. At the end of last year my bank decided to no longer allow trades on foreign securities. I found this out when I tried to move some money into SNDXF below $1 in Octoberish and my bank wouldn't let me. SNDXF is now above $1.70. No biggie, I have some other foreign shares I established positions in before USAA stopped trading them. I just don't want them to cost me anymore $, so what would be a good online brokerage? I'm leaning towards Scotttrade or tradeking but would appreciate any perspective from someone with experience.

Mar 16, 2012 - 5:40am

Indian Government Silver announcement

the sudden volatility is due to the announcement at the Annual Indian Budget..where Silver Jewellery becomes cheaper....!!!!!!!!!!! As soon as the annoncement came silver dropped by almost Rs.600/kg or about 0.50$.Guess what HSBC India Country Manager & other important bankers viewpoints help in defining the budget.....so now in INDIA BTFD!!!!!!!!

Mar 16, 2012 - 6:10am
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:13am
What If
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:13am
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:14am
I Run Bartertown
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:25am

Mr. Ayers, I presume?

"But, like with everything I do, I do it because of my love for humankind. All of us. Even the bad ones can be healed. (However they need re-education too)"

Wow, this sums up Leftist thinking in a nutshell.

Such good intentions.

Until someone resists re-education.

Poison. This place is getting loaded to critical mass with it.

On an anti-Keynesian metals site.

Makes one wonder.

Iran? NKorea? Nah, your enemy is closer than you think.

Have a good day, all.

Mar 16, 2012 - 6:29am



Has Gold Topped, or we heading much Higher?


Can Silver Sustain its recent move?


Is Silver the next NasDaq Bubble?


Ten Reasons Why you Should own Gold


Are Aliens Beaming Large Amounts of Silver down to Earth to help JP MORGAN?


I realize that there is what I call the SUBSCRIPTION MILL. This is where precious metal folks have a website where they give information for a small monthly fee. To entice more COWS to SLAUGHTER, they have to write articles that are published on Financial Internet sites with their website listed at the end.

Most of these folks who write these articles DO NO REAL RESEARCH WHATSOEVER. So instead they write something similar to what I have listed above. You get about 4-6 paragraphs of FLUFF and then they inform you the GOOD STUFF is on their website.... AGAIN, FOR A FEE.

GOSH... I am so tired of this sort of BRAINDEAD work, and I do realize I am complaining. So be it.

Well, that's about all I have to say on the matter.


OH LOOK.... The Brits got their Gold and Silver Cattle prods out and are taking down the metals right at the close of the Asian Markets. Ain't that a SHOCKER.

Velocity tyberious
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:30am

@ Ttyberious ...Abiotic Oil

Gerald Celente is a sharp cookie and right (even if he appears radical) on most things in my experience

...including that Oil is produced by the churn of magma against Earths crust

The propagandists tosh (wild guess it's generated by Big Oil) that it's made by decaying forests and Dinos is so friggin old hat and stupid it amazes me anyone believes that crap any longer.

It ties in of course with the Monopolist Matrix's agenda of scaring the sheeple (Peak Oil) and the global monopoly oil cartels over-pricing what is a massively plentiful and should be extremely cheap energy resource

But if you want to believe in fraudulent junk-science and be herded from pillar to post (and totally fleeced between them) don't let anyone stop you

SRSrocco Velocity
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:37am


Velocity... I don't normally do this sort of TIT for TAT response to those who disagree with me. Why? Because it is a complete waste of time. Most people will take to the graves their assumptions...whether they are RIGHT or WRONG. That being said, back in the day most of the people in the world thought the EARTH WAS FLAT. It took science and about 300-400 years to clear that up for the majority of people.

Unfortunately, we don't have time on our side. Most of the information on PEAK OIL is well documented by field by field analysis. This is not ROCKET SCIENCE, but just simple math.

Folks who don't believe in Peak Oil more than likely don't believe that 90% of the Fish-Mammal BIO MASS is gone from the oceans. I guess all we need is just better technology so we can wipe the ocean clean of the rest of that LOUSY 10%... aye?


Mar 16, 2012 - 6:39am

Abiotic oil - - -

Yeah - - - whatever - -

ClinkinKY I Run Bartertown
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:43am

@IRB--Sorta like this?

Video unavailable
Mar 16, 2012 - 6:55am
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:05am

@ velocity - - -

But I do like your anti- tax stance. "evil exists because ordinary people are so fucking stupid- that they do what they are told".

Be Prepared
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:14am
Be Prepared
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:16am
Be Prepared
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:19am
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:45am


Spazz--Yes, Mickey, Larry L., and the essence of other preceding posts had already veered into politics before I posted my explanation. No, it is hardly a conspiracy theory. It is a simple fact. Obama was raised on a steady diet of Leftist propaganda, and was reared on Alinsky's revolutionary theory. If you wish to ignore the facts, you do so at your own (and our) peril. There is nothing in the last 3 and 1/2 years to suggest that Obama is not doing all he can to bring about a new order in American government and society. Again, I tried all the way through to Obamacare to give him the benefit of the doubt. But both the substance of that "law," and the process used to impose it upon a people who wanted nothing to do with it, were the last straws. If you doubt any of this, you had better read Alinsky and take a hard look at what has transpired in this country over the last 3 and 1/ 2 years.

None of this is to say that he is alone. Not by a long shot. At least since Woodrow Wilson (a creepy, utopian internationalist with delusions of messianic grandeur) and FDR (a strong-arming, lying, cheating, power-hungry Statist if ever there was one), this nation has been headed downhill. WWII and its aftermath was a respite that, because of circumstances and the strength of the American people and their institutions, held off the decline for some 20 years. However, once the Left won over the media and the academy, the Statist power-grab was back on, and LBJ, Nixon, Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II carried it out magnificently.

It is important to realize just how much damage Lincoln did with his war against the Confederate States of America, a sovereign nation that he and his Northeastern, monied cronies could not countenance. By asserting the power and authority of one nation to invade and destroy another, Lincoln essentially established that, in America, the Central Power in Washington, D.C. would dictate anything and everything it desired to dictate. It is impossible to overstate the extent of harm to liberty, private property, and free enterprise that resulted from this totalitarian onslaught against the sovereign nation to the South of the United States.

I would encourage you to read history, study philosophy, and grab a dose of reality.

Mar 16, 2012 - 7:50am

@ SRSrocco ...it's a Dead Dinosaur in your gas tank

Haha ...i'm in tears ;))

The global Monopolists have come out with some fucking tosh in their day but the "Oil is dead forests/dinosaurs" garbage probably tops the lot (and that's saying something!)

But I can see you're 'attuned' to believing is scare stories (Good Sheepy)... Here's some more scare stories (total crap) for your bedtime reading

Water scarcity /insecurity

Energy scarcity /insecurity

Food scarcity /insecurity

Rain Forest scarcity

Silver scarcity

Gold scarcity

WMD Iraq

WMD Iran

Mar 16, 2012 - 7:52am


Please do not turn this excellent web site into the trashy grocery store tabloid that is Silver doctors. If this site becomes a whistleblower site you will get every poser and lunatic that has an internet connection and the quality will suffer.

How many of the people we are hearing from now are posers? If you give them a voice, they hurt the few who are not.

The internet gives everyone the ability to say anything with complete anonymity providing the lunatic fringe the capability to destroy an honest movement.

By the response I get to this post, you will see that I am right.

I expect Kcap to go into a tirade.

Kcap, you lost me at the silver colonic cleanse.

Mar 16, 2012 - 7:57am


Very nice March historical charts. Nice job!

ClinkinKY Tecumseh
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:02am

@ Tecumseh

Well said. It's mind boggling to me that some of the same people here who can see the manipulation of markets refuse to see (or do they?) the clear clues of B.O.'s actions and intentions over the last 3 years.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:02am

after hearing many many times

over the past 20 years saDDest day in my fathers life, the day jack keNNedy was kiLLed, then having that change one day, living through the death of my liTTle sister. i like to think i can begin to understand how our founders would fEEl about the america we live in today. consumers of everything interested in nothing, it is a groSS stereotype that i sadly sEE repeat through the youth of this country on an aNNual basis. lets face it. or stay in your fOOkin basement.

i have never felt the emotion or aTTachment of my father for this nation. not for our ideals, but for the last 40 years it has bEEn nothing, if not an embaRReSSment.

i consider myself a patriot.

Number 47
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:09am

new thread

new thread

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:10am

Gold down -0.80% ..Silver down -1.20%

Good, we're back to the normal 'rate of exchange' between the 2 heavy metals today after a week of Gold being the hare and Silver the tortoise in price action some days... weird!

Still no response from Master Turd on the possibility of a downside Head & Shoulders pattern emerging and why he thought it was "invalid"

But Mr T kindly linked to General Jim Sinclairs latest thoughts on CNBC, sorry KWN Radio Propaganda, whose earlier Gold trading range of $1,700 to $2,100 prediction for the year was not as positively put forward as he'd previously claimed (ie. we could be in for a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern then"!)

As one of the worlds worst top/bottom/momentum/prediction pickers I'm not saying it could be which H&S shoulders pattern emerges but if Gentleman Jim (and very much more sheepish James 'Goin on a Tear' Turk) has reviewed his outlook to a certainly more sheepish one will Mr T not throw his hat in the ring on this one!

Are we allowed to go short in Turdville???

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:15am

Hear Hear!

moved to new thread

Mar 16, 2012 - 9:38am


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