History Is Written By The Victors

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Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  216 Comments

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¤
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:23pm

H'mmm

Interesting indeed.

KcapTF
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:20pm

Response to SD Whistleblower post (Turd)

ZH put a link in the newest article re: the SD whistleblower....something that looked like an internal JPM commissions spreadsheet...not sure what they were getting at other than perhaps compounding losses?? BUT....

My thought is that maybe ZH is corroborating with SD in this to help bring it mainstream....but first they have to get this guy some legal representation and handle it appropriately.

Having been a mini-whistleblower 10+ years ago, and wishing I was part of today's action, it takes some time to work out the details and handle it the right way. Perhaps the CFTC article was just the first arrow to be fired from the quiver to convince the whistleblower him/herself that they are actually going to go through with it. Its a major life-changing decision and something none of us can take for granted here.

Kcap

Turdle GG
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:13pm

I hear ya Turdle

I'm not going down that road. Too many legal ramifications to worry about and I'm already keeping a constant watch for black sedans out my front window.

I don't have to fight every battle. We'll let others run with this one.

Mar 15, 2012 - 11:11pm

For anyone interested in the CFTC/Silverdoctors story

As I mentioned last evening, I've been in touch with the Silverdoctors, their "whistleblower" certainly looks real. I've developed a pretty solid BS meter on these things but The Doc seems an honest guy so I'm buying the story. Is the ZH link below "proof" that he/she really does work for JPM?

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/02/JPM%20blot.jpg

It will be interesting to see if this gets "legs" and where it might lead.

Turdle GG
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:08pm

good to see

looks like ZH has taken up the whistleblower publicity role. that'll keep Turd available for doing what Turd does best.

Mar 15, 2012 - 10:44pm
tread_w_care
Mar 15, 2012 - 10:23pm

@Turd RE: Whistleblowers

Are the purvey of Zero Hedge:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/terminated-cbo-whistleblower-shares-her-f...

You could refer and corroborate but I agree w/ others and would like to see us (you) stick to the metals and the end of the Keynesian Experiment, please.

tmosley
Mar 15, 2012 - 10:13pm

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiistoooooooooon

Ghostbusters 2 Tunnel scene
Eric Original
Mar 15, 2012 - 10:10pm

SRSrocco

Good stuff on the Shale Gas. I'm with you.

(an old theoildrum.com reader myself)

gbend
Mar 15, 2012 - 10:01pm

Whistleblowers

Max Keiser and Nomi Prins are living proof that people caught up in the corrupt system can make the break and expose some light on these nasty bankers. It is probably becoming painfully obvious to the bank workers where this is about to lead us all. Thus comes the realization that by remaining silent they will be marked as accomplices to the destruction of millions of innocents. I'd rather take my chances joining Max and Nomi. Wouldn't you?

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