History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.


However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 15, 2012 - 9:20pm

John Williams

Just finished reading John Williams update,and i have a couple of questions.He says "outside timing remains 2014,does that mean that sometime in 2014 we will have the hyperinflation peak or will it be just starting.He also states the inflation will be in the seven to ten digit range not sure what that means.Anybody help me with this?

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:20pm

Qui Tam Examples

Here is a short article on the subject.


The people who come forward stand to make a lot of money; but, it is not instant gratification by any means.

As far as my take on the so-called JPMorgue whistleblower, I hope to God it is a real, live person, who is actually telling the truth. However, my cynicism forces me to call bullshi-.

Any one foolish enough to go to the media with a story that is sure to cause consternation at the highest echelon's of the evil bankster cartel is EITHER fed up with the immorality and wants to purge his soul and conscience at what will almost certainly be a death sentence, OR a few cards short of a full deck.

Matt Drudge comes to mind, but TPTB ridiculed him, and no one took him serious. This insider at JPM, if he really is an insider, is risking death for sure. Why would he [or she] not just squire away some confirmatory proof of some sort, on a flash drive or what not, then simply anonymously tip Matt Taibbi or someone over at Breitbart? For that matter, why would not this insider immediately lawyer up? If the insider lawyer-ed up, the lawyer would certainly muzzle the insider to keep him [or her] alive long enough for the proof to be developed so that the lawyer could earn the fee.

So, something does not add up to me on this story.

I will say this, too. If the insider, whoever it is that posted the anonymous email about JPM, wants to hire an attorney, for sure email me. I will take your case right now. If your allegations are true, then I can RETIRE TEN TIMES OVER from this one fee. Do not delay, friend. Get on it now. <sarc off>

Otherwise, thanks for the glimmer of hope that perhaps justice will be done, but in the end, I just go back to stacking . . .

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:21pm
vonburpenstein Horst
Mar 15, 2012 - 9:27pm


what a dick!

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:32pm

@robov Re. GDX/HUI


Submitted by robov on March 15, 2012 - 1:51pm. Hat Tip! 1

Anyone else notice what appears to be any lack of response from the GDX and HUI as gold rallies. The GDXJ seems to have responded but there is great pressure on both the GDX and HUI. Are we not just seeing some short covering at these levels with an expectation of maybe one more push down? Any thoughts?

I think not only we're not seeing short covering... we're probably seeing more shorting. Ranting Andy has explained that the shorting of the miners is not done just for profit... It is a tool used by TPTB to contain sentiment/enthusiasm levels towards PMs.

Mar 15, 2012 - 9:41pm
The man who stole a leopard
Mar 15, 2012 - 9:59pm
Mar 15, 2012 - 10:01pm


Max Keiser and Nomi Prins are living proof that people caught up in the corrupt system can make the break and expose some light on these nasty bankers. It is probably becoming painfully obvious to the bank workers where this is about to lead us all. Thus comes the realization that by remaining silent they will be marked as accomplices to the destruction of millions of innocents. I'd rather take my chances joining Max and Nomi. Wouldn't you?

Eric Original
Mar 15, 2012 - 10:10pm


Good stuff on the Shale Gas. I'm with you. yes

(an old theoildrum.com reader myself)

Mar 15, 2012 - 10:13pm


Ghostbusters 2 Tunnel scene
Mar 15, 2012 - 10:23pm

@Turd RE: Whistleblowers

Are the purvey of Zero Hedge:


You could refer and corroborate but I agree w/ others and would like to see us (you) stick to the metals and the end of the Keynesian Experiment, please.

Mar 15, 2012 - 10:44pm
Turdle GG
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:08pm

good to see

looks like ZH has taken up the whistleblower publicity role. that'll keep Turd available for doing what Turd does best.

Mar 15, 2012 - 11:11pm

For anyone interested in the CFTC/Silverdoctors story

As I mentioned last evening, I've been in touch with the Silverdoctors, their "whistleblower" certainly looks real. I've developed a pretty solid BS meter on these things but The Doc seems an honest guy so I'm buying the story. Is the ZH link below "proof" that he/she really does work for JPM?


It will be interesting to see if this gets "legs" and where it might lead.

Turdle GG
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:13pm

I hear ya Turdle

I'm not going down that road. Too many legal ramifications to worry about and I'm already keeping a constant watch for black sedans out my front window.

I don't have to fight every battle. We'll let others run with this one.

Kcap TF
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:20pm

Response to SD Whistleblower post (Turd)

ZH put a link in the newest article re: the SD whistleblower....something that looked like an internal JPM commissions spreadsheet...not sure what they were getting at other than perhaps compounding losses?? BUT....

My thought is that maybe ZH is corroborating with SD in this to help bring it mainstream....but first they have to get this guy some legal representation and handle it appropriately.

Having been a mini-whistleblower 10+ years ago, and wishing I was part of today's action, it takes some time to work out the details and handle it the right way. Perhaps the CFTC article was just the first arrow to be fired from the quiver to convince the whistleblower him/herself that they are actually going to go through with it. Its a major life-changing decision and something none of us can take for granted here.


Mar 15, 2012 - 11:23pm


Interesting indeed.

Mar 15, 2012 - 11:27pm

Good Strategy

That is a good strategy you laid out there SiverWealth


and I'm sure anyone here would in fact do the same. The problem as I see it is that the big guys don't actually put any of their stash up as backing for their positions. Risk free sure, but illegal as hell.

Heck, they've probably encumbered and levered their stash so much that there's no way in hell they could use it to back their positions anyway. And there's the rub. Hypothecation as far as the eye can see. Balanced books to some, accounting fraud to others. When you've already levered up the world, you have nothing left for collateral and you're naked as a jay bird.

Mar 15, 2012 - 11:34pm

To the doubters....

If there is anyone here (other than any paid lurkers, shills or trolls) who doubt the cronyism or the control mechanisms in place, I have one suggestion. You need to clear your 6th chakra (sense). You are not connecting and it was intentionally done to you without your knowledge through the poisoning of your body.

Please follow these steps, and literally, within weeks, you will begin to release, open and heal. The clarity will flow. You'll know when the process is complete.

1) Eat organic or local only (know your farmer if possible) - this rids your body of the pesticides/growth hormones/etc.

2) Stop all alcohol/cosmetic drugs/nicotine intake

3) Remove ALL Fluoride consumption (toothpaste, and check your water supply) - to clear your pineal gland

4) Do a Colloidal Silver Cleanse to kill all pre-cancerous toxins in your body (you have them, guaranteed) - get the real stuff here: https://silverproteinmild.com/ (this is the purest, most potent and best stuff you can get, period) - side note: Colloidal Silver kills cancer cells, lyme cells, you name it....and amazingly, its our buddy, Ag.

5) Drink 80-100 oz. of Stirwand water everyday (google Stirwand and buy one)

I could charge for this. But, like with everything I do, I do it because of my love for humankind. All of us. Even the bad ones can be healed. (However they need re-education too)


Mar 15, 2012 - 11:40pm


Right on man. I can see you and I probably have had similar experiences in the past searching for pure food and water.......

Fringe - Delicious Strawberry Flavored Death!
Gold Dog
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:44pm

I bought when I bought.....

I bought when I bought..... as an old trader/stacker the rest is just noise. G'night. Dog

Mar 15, 2012 - 11:49pm


I see we have traveled similar culinary roads . . . though perhaps ended at only slightly different destinations.

This is my idea of a good meal and a way to get in touch with my inner self, accompanied by a large glass of Bordeaux, while I mesmerizingly fondle my stack.

Blackened Steak with Blue Cheese Wine Sauce
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:55pm

Late night GS & JPM phone calls

What do you think will be the hot topic of discussion in the board rooms tomorrow morning?

Basketball tournaments?


Cameron meeting the GS CEO?


Or maybe it might be the $2.15 BILLION drop in value of GS stock?


and just to prove there is some honor among theives, JPM agrees to not pile onto GS


Mar 16, 2012 - 12:18am

JMP whistleblower gets the ball rolling

Posted/linked to over on js mineset site.


hope he has a long happy life!!

Mar 16, 2012 - 12:21am

Currency Collapses

No first hand Zimbabwe or Argentina experience here, but I have closely watched 4 currency collapses.

The first place you see movement is the exchange rates. The currency starts to fall vs. the USD. The second place that you see the collapse coming is inflation in the price of fuel (gasoline & diesel). Then the currency declines become bigger and bigger. Maybe 1% one day, then 1% more, then 3% the next day, then 8%. As these falls take place, those in the money changing business begin to expand their buy/sell margins. If their is typically a 1% spread, it becomes a 5% spread, then a 20% spread.

In my experiences, there has been a short period of time where there were major warning signs, then the big waterfall took place. There was 3 or 4 days of currency decline/fuel inflation/currency margin spread, then the big collapse. In each case, what seemed to be the major trigger was that everyone suddenly realized that their savings were being erased, and they rushed to take their money out of the banks and convert it into hard assets. Hard assets were USD, gold, electronics, and vehicles.

In the US 99.995% of all the people will be caught completely by surprise. Financial ignorance is epidemic. Ever see the videos of the guy on the street trying to sell 1 oz gold coins for $50? Most Americans will hear, "Bank Holiday" and will pack their bar-b-q grills into their SUVs and head to the beach to enjoy the day off.

What If
Mar 16, 2012 - 1:34am

Good Read

Very timely, in my opinion, considering some of the discussion here lately. For those that do not ready CHS at OTM, check it out... good stuff. Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds We Have No Other Choice America is just going through the motions because we have no other choice--or so we believe. I have long thought that America Is Just Going Through the Motions--of caring about the deficit, of financial "reform," and everything else: Let's be honest, shall we? There never was any fire for real reform of the financial sector. It was all rote, a foul, stupid play-act, a passionless pantomime of "caring" and fake-"progressiveness" displayed for propaganda purposes. I now think we're just going through the motions because we have no other choice than to "extend and pretend" the Status Quo.

A note from Moderator Washington:

Please! We cannot be posting entire articles this way. Especially with no link whatsoever to the original source. We are getting more and more inquiries and outright threats from the owners of such content over copyright issues.

The proper approach is basically "a teaser and a link". Post just enough, two or three paragraphs at the most, so that a reader can decide whether they want to read more, or not, and then provide a link out to the source.

You can read the rest of Charles Hugh Smith's article here:


Thanks in advance for EVERYONE'S cooperation!

Mar 16, 2012 - 1:52am

March Madness = delivery with OPG

honestly, this board has more guys up in twitters over the "dip".

FIGURE IT OUT PEOPLE! What would be the reason that the price would need to dip during the first half of March?

One clue : DELIVERY.

Next clue: Do not use bank's "inventory" to ship.

Last clue: Get OPG (Other People's Gold) to ship by end of March.



2004 - a 2.5% correction with flat performance until Mar 15. Then, 5% surge.

2005 - $5 correction followed by 3% gain and a late month sink

2006 - $40/0z loss followed by $50 gain after dip.

$670 to $635 - $35 loss followed by $25 rise.

$1000 to $925 dip - $75 /0z loss after AU first breeched $1000 for the first time.

2009 - sank from 935 to 895. A $40 loss again followed by a $65 rise.

Notice that the rise again occurred after 3-15

peak at 1135 with dip to 1105 ($20 dip) followed by $20 rise.

The eventual March 2010 dip bottomed t $1090, which basically meant ANOTHER $40 dip.

Seeing any patterns yet?

Last year, dip from 1440 to 1400... $40 dip again.

rise from 1400 to 1440, $40 up again.

$1710 to $1650 = $60 dip.

Take the screen shot now...the 2012 March chart is about to move.

Take guess where... I say it moves back to $1690. It should be a $40 move up.



cupcake Jasper
Mar 16, 2012 - 2:11am


I hope you wear a protective glove when fondling your stack!

Sorry, couldn't resist. :)

Mar 16, 2012 - 2:50am

@cpnscarlet Germany Switzerland Netherlands gold

This doesnt really go beyond the yellow press, and some political opposition questions, you dont see the power questioning this at all. They want to keep the peace with america and the wallstreet scam.


ASK ME: Is the euro dead? (a question from debatingeurope.eu)
Mar 16, 2012 - 4:16am

yep, seeing that too

I'm showing over 6500 comex contracts within the 10 minute period starting at 3:10 am EST

​I also imagine it's to try and jump start a waterfall, but I can't see it coming off at the end of a week where the gains have been short.

​Will be interesting to watch these next 12 or so hours reading the intentions...

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