History Is Written By The Victors

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Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it. 

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

paper_3-15amgoldd.jpgpaper_3-15amsilvd.jpg

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  216 Comments

FriedEggs · Mar 15, 2012 - 5:59pm

Off

topic, but interesting right now in the news. And its getting some media coverage.

 Earth's lost frontier is about to be explored firsthand after more than half a century. It's a mission to the deepest part of the ocean, so deep that the pressure is the equivalent of three SUVs sitting on your toe. 

https://www.kypost.com/dpp/news/james-cameron-others-to-explore-the-real...

.

Just wondering what James Cameron is going to find deep down below... something significant? Maybe the Leviathan?lol.

Either way... their is a reason more than just to see some odd fish and cl()ms.

.

Fried(e)

atarangi · Mar 15, 2012 - 5:59pm

@ Dr. G. - - -

 I've been thinking about selling my P.M. holdings too - - - and reinvesting in a crowd called Monkey Finance Global. (M.F. Global) What do you reckon ?

koan · Mar 15, 2012 - 6:00pm

Anyone know of any first hand

Anyone know of any first hand accounts of Zimbabwe's decent (or is that ascent?!) into hyperinflation?

Remember reading Gonzalo Lira relaying what he'd heard from the Chilean (I think) one and found it helpful to maybe recognise the signs and be better prepared to navigate through such times if they come to pass.

Platinum_Investor · Mar 15, 2012 - 6:21pm

When do we give up? Markets

When do we give up?

Markets are SOARING each week. Yet we are at a 3 year low in the HUI.

If the market turns and goes down. The HUI will be at 10 year lows.

I'm just a bit nervous. I've invested way to much in miners (have tons of Physical as well) but I invest in mining companies for 3 years and am just holding them.

But I keep thinking when is it time to give up? I know that's what they want :(

Velocity · Mar 15, 2012 - 6:24pm

99

if you can't find anything on Zimbabwe then try Argentina who've been there and got the inflation t-shirt a few times

Magpie · Mar 15, 2012 - 6:25pm

@99th

Re: Gonzalo Lira. Are you thinking of ferfal and his account of the collapse of Argentina?

https://ferfal.blogspot.com/

Turdle GG · Mar 15, 2012 - 6:31pm

Thanks Turd and Winston

Turd,

sounds like Winston and Eric King's London Trader are two good sources. Maybe you could compare notes with Eric?

The Body · Mar 15, 2012 - 6:34pm

Re: 99th Monkey

If TPTB deemed AIG, the car companies, the Zombies, etc. too big to fail wouldn't that make the USD Too Pig to Fail? 

The global powers won't let the dollar fall until there is no grease left to put on their nasty little palms. There is still an awful lot of wealth to be siphoned off using the USD as their hose. The Pig will be on global-sponsored life support for a long time.

Turdle GG · Mar 15, 2012 - 6:40pm

Turd help the whistleblowers?

Turd,

my 2c: I'd steer clear of this if I were you.

You've made a name for yourself doing what you do here. Skills are reputations are not easily transferable, and you'd dilute your message if you went out on this tangent.

Stuff like that anonymous "JPM employee" rant on the CTFC website lacks all credibility. If someone wants to come up with their real names and hard evidence, they don't need you in order to do it. They can do it themselves or use other alternative media.

What you could do, through the network of contacts you've made, is to help potential whistleblowers find the right place/medium/support in order to get their messages out.

Ircsum · Mar 15, 2012 - 7:03pm

Europe's Gold?

Germany & Switzerland seem to have been very slow to wake up to the fact that their gold may have been 'vaporized' (like the MFGlobal cash). Chavez in Venezuela had first mover advantage last year when he decided to repatriate his country's shiny stuff. It remains to be seen how many more countries will be as fortunate in prising their property from the Fed & Bank of England.

Number 47 · Mar 15, 2012 - 7:06pm

Turd,

I would also stay clear of whistleblowing dreams, look what happened to wikileaks, you have a platform here that is honest. Opening it to any manipulative documents that might be valid or may be doublespeak leaves you open to a whole new life of litigation that you don't need. You are already doing a great service here.

Don't jeopardise what you have created to try to accommodate what could turn out to be a thousand applications of whistleblowers you have no way of verifying, possibly on subjects you have no understanding of. Stick to what you know.

How would you deal with a source who wanted to disclose some kind of cancer ridden tampon? Can you be sure you are not going to be destroyed by johnson and johnson, pfizer, bp?

This is the reality, you don't know what you're going to get. Cali lawyer is intelligent but there is no-one else here who can protect you from the corporate shitstorm that you may end up with.

please think twice.

¤ · Mar 15, 2012 - 7:31pm

Just dangling there...

...had to pluck it. 

Victoria

THE KINKS - VICTORIA
· Mar 15, 2012 - 7:44pm

Qui Tam Actions - Whistleblower Litigation

Whistleblowing is noble, and the incentives to do so are extremely lucrative. For an overview, look here.

"The False Claims Act (31 U.S.C. §§ 37293733, also called the "Lincoln Law") is an American federal law that imposes liability on persons and companies (typically federal contractors) who defraud governmental programs. The law includes a "qui tam" provision that allows people who are not affiliated with the government to file actions on behalf of the government (informally called "whistleblowing"). Persons filing under the Act stand to receive a portion (usually about 15–25 percent) of any recovered damages. Claims under the law have typically involved health care, military, or other government spending programs. The government has recovered nearly $22 billion under the False Claims Act between 1987 (after the significant 1986 amendments) and 2008.[1 

There are countless attorneys that specialize in this area, and make gazillions of dollars. The last one I heard about involved Fannie or Freddi mac and a major bank, may even have been JPMorgue. In that case, someone came forward, and exposed the overbilling scheme, and the whistleblower is going to recover somewhere north of several million dollars, if I recall correctly.

HOWEVER, the major downside here, to Turd, and this site, is that there are plenty of crazies out there, and this site would quickly lose any semblance of legitimacy strictly from the sheer number of lunatics who would rush here to proclaim the latest sensational rumor.

Secondly, from a legal point of view, defamation, which is a common law tort, is actionable in a court of law, whether federal or state court. "Defamation" is a false statement of fact which tends to injure someone's reputation. If the defamed person is NOT a public figure, then the claim is easy to prove. If the defamed person is a public figure, then there is a higher burden to prove the claim. Win or lose, the costs to defend oneself would be well into the five figures, and beyond, depending upon the allegations.

It would be very risky to allow someone to post a topic here, or for Turd to officially take a position by promoting a particular viewpoint as one made based on fact vs. an opinion, purporting to be a statement of fact, that is, rather than opinions that can be argued if the information appears in a a comment.

Opinions are NOT defamation. Remember that.

Just something to consider, Turd, please. 

Number 47 · Mar 15, 2012 - 7:55pm

@monedas

Kindly leave me out of your signature line. I find you tiresome at the best of times, I did on kitco, I see no difference here. Poor comedy is excusable. Constantly repeating it is not.

Perhaps you might try contributing something to the board instead of picking faults from those who contribute. Taking the piss does not show intelligence. When you're willing to stick your neck out and state your beliefs, I will read them. Until then, I'll keep on passing by your isolationist, bigoted, good for nothing diatribe.

¤ · Mar 15, 2012 - 7:57pm

promoting whistle blowers

no

Imo, it would serve nothing more then to make the site a bulls-eye.

They (WB's) would start coming out of the woodwork. Just imagine the implications.

TruthPreeminent · Mar 15, 2012 - 7:59pm

RE: Whistleblowers

I agree with the post above that today's whistleblower looks like something one of us would have written. Why was it posted on the CFTC website? If you don't have the stones to add your name to it what good are you? How legit can it be without a name attached to it? If it is legit, then obviously this person still cares more about money (his or her job) than about doing the right thing. Trying to have it both ways- be a whistleblower and keep your job is just cowardice. You have no right to the moral high ground. Which brings me to my second point.

If these people blowing the whistle are such moral exemplars, then why did it take them so long to figure out that the institutions they were working for were corrupt?? I thought these people were the best and the brightest. Oh I get it. You're really smart but it took you 12 years to figure out GS wasn't the moral pillar you thought it was. Or maybe it coincidentally took you that long to figure out that your institution was corrupt while you made millions. It took you 12 years to figure that out? Oh that's right, they just got corrupt lately.

So what about these other critics of the system like Max Keiser who has admitted that corruption was going on but stayed where he was and made lots of money. Or did he leave right away? No one ever asks. How long was Nomi Prins at GS? Andrew McGuire admitted that his conscience got to him after piggy-backing on JPM's shorts. How much money did all these people make before they "figured out" that their respective institutions were corrupt, or perhaps even what they were personally doing was morally wrong? Yet no one has asked them this in public. They are all millionaires. If they are so morally pure, then why didn't they leave sooner and blow the whistle or offer criticism immediately upon seeing the corruption? It couldn't be that money comes first with all of these people that we hold in such high regard. If money comes first, then it's a non sequitur that you have the moral high ground.

Turdle GG · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:00pm

@TruthPreeminent

Get off your high horse.

Having the balls to do the right thing is what counts, even if it takes 12 years to wake up to the truth.

¤ · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:03pm

Piranha's and Greedy Bastards

 This is part of a post I just put out at The Speak before I read that KWN/Sinclair piece. 


"The believability and reliability of those who are supposed to be above board has definitely been breached and at some point these greedy, schizophrenic bastards are going to cannibalize and "Piranha" themselves and their credibility along with it. "

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/552233#comment-552233

What I'm reading and interpreting for myself is that separately and collectively many countries are slowly reaching the same conclusion that "...if we can #@!&! over everyone else then it could happen to us." I think they no longer trust their own bonds or junk collateral they've been fooling themselves with and passing around like a hot potato.

Once planted, the seeds of doubt, distrust and fear germinate rapidly . This could get ugly quickly.

Did Hugo Chavez start the trend?

ActionFive · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:07pm

@Robov

The curved price you see tonight is following a psychological price average- lower. They often do this to keep volume out before a drop- that would have to be rectified now/this evening @ around 1653. Just have to watch.

They laminated everything green with red this morning, and daily is still hanging.

TruthPreeminent · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:08pm

@Turdle GG

Waking up to the truth when you've made millions sleeping with the enemy probably isn't that difficult.

Tyler · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:12pm

Please remind me...

Wasn't there supposed to be some Anonymous thing this week? I don't remember what it was

Kcap · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:21pm

I'm on board with Dr. G and the rest

The time has come. The markets are really, really genuine now. Obama is a hero. Not only have I dumped all my metals but I have taken a full HELOC out on my home and I am going in deep baby. The equity markets are where I have always belonged. After getting scraped up in 2008, I am back. AAPL was my first buy today....100 shares!! The banking sector is hot so I am all over that....LVOL , the low volatility ETF and SVXY the inverse double VIX, and home builders baby! America is back!! 

I will be supporting Barack Obama 2012 and will be making a $10,000 contribution soon. I hope Chris Rock matches my donation. He's made up of the right stuff. In fact, I think its time to rename our leaders house....forget the White House....hello Milk Choco Crib.

Ahhhhhh. It feels so good to let it out. BUY BUY BUY the market....irrational exuberance is now the new normal and it here to stay!

Kcap

bot.dis.info (cite: Dr. G)

arcticfox · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:25pm

Interesting

https://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/

snip:

"No. 2, I share most of Ron Paul's principles, but perhaps y'all have not noticed that he is the Invisible Candidate. Why do you think that is? Because the media can't see him? Cataracts? Nope, it's because they know who signs their paychecks, and they cover what the signer wants covered. Assume the impossible, that Ron Paul is elected. What then? Assuming, too, he doesn't meet that convenient "Lone Assassin keeping a diary," how much could he change? How hard could he push against the entrenched bureaucracy, the defense establishment, and an economy addicted to defense spending, government money, borrowing, and inflation?"

cpnscarlet · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:39pm

Santa

What's posted tonight at KWN by JS is troubling in that it is too vague for the claim. Not to second guess Mr. Sinclair, but that talk is all well and very logical, but I wouldn't put it out there without a little back-up on details. Does he know someone in Germany or Switzerland who knows this is part of the motivation to get the gold back ... is there really some suspicion about the Fed?

Again, all very logical in the deduction, but definitely the type of claim that can make you a laughing stock very quickly if someone needed a little ammo to discredit someone. Tread carefully, I say.

harlan07 · Mar 15, 2012 - 8:55pm

Is it over?

Is the bounce today short covering that will bring in new long positions or just a bounce on the way down to 1600-1620?

¤ · Mar 15, 2012 - 9:03pm

WB's

It's interesting how the whole whistle blower thing has quickly morphed into the media spotlight and on here as a subject. A somewhat divisive one in some aspects here and in the media. 

What appears to be a real whistle blower (Goldman Saks guy) is being doubted and people in the actual business of PM's or securities (KWN comes to mind) are being questioned about their integrity and/or motives. This started about two weeks ago and has persisted as a theme.

I find it interesting and I'm not implying anything in the above posts. Just noticing the flow of it since Mr. Maguire was on KWN. I touched on it earlier in the previous thread this a.m.

How did it come to be that the plates of doubt were started spinning in the first place? I guess there's no real answer for that unless I were to go back to the threads just previous to the Maguire KWN piece. It started right around that time I think.

I also wonder if this subject is being discussed on some of the other blogs to this extent or if this site has a certain intensity to it and it's being dwelled on more so here then others? I guess there's no real answer.

SilverWealth · Mar 15, 2012 - 9:19pm

Turd

I do hope what you say is true but then why are the premiums on physical not skyrocketing especially following smashdows? That makes zero sense. If the physical market was so strong we would see this exhibited I think.

And regarding Butlers interesting comments. The bullion banks covet and own alot of physical. The paper Comex game is used to hedge against their physical is it not. They constantly layer into prices as they fall by going long and layer into prices as they rise going short. You don't have to conspire to do that imo. They also have nearly unlimited borrowing power and capital potential across many commodities markets. This means they can continue to increase their short positions as the Market rises and even if it takes off. And it means they can buy endlessly in pyramids on the way down without much regard to how far it falls. With unlimited cash this is what you can do. And come on. There are zillions of commodity markets. Silver is tiny and Gold is not big when compared to some others. They can easily elicit rotations of funds from one sector to another should it be needed.

I am unconvinced by Butler's argument. The only real reason they ever buy the bottom and sell the top is because you would do the same in the game if you had unlimited resources, were the dominant gorilla on the block and were constantly hedging and rebalancing. Isn't that the correct thing to do in order to reduce risk to a minimum?

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