History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


33 and a turd
Mar 15, 2012 - 4:16pm


Such a happy couple!

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:20pm

I'm not sure how legit this

I'm not sure how legit this is as i'm just on my way out but the link below is from a whistleblower from JPMorgan about Silver/gold price manipulations. Just though I'd post the link for fellow Turdites to chew on::


Mar 15, 2012 - 4:26pm

I had to be away from the screen today..

I bet you people were happy about that!

To my amazement we had a drop in the USD and pop in the metals..

However, is it the real thing or a tease..

I am still in the more to go group. when the RSI hits about 30 we should be good to go.

Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 4:26pm

Yes, the metals rise higher

Yes, the metals rise higher into Crimex close and then in electronic trading begin to sell-off and drift lower because there must be hundreds of contracts that are looking to take profit at this point, especially since both metals were degrees higher over the past week. I know that if I were looking to take a profit I would wait until the bottom and then sell.

In other words, who would be selling for profit at this point? Nobody.

Nice job Globex (electronic Crimex).

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:29pm


TYBERIOUS....sorry I just saw your post. What I find simply amazing is the IRONY OF IT ALL. On one hand we have the media and the Shale Gas Industry HYPING and OVER-ESTIMATING Shale Gas as a New Paradigm. However, on the other hand we have a FALSE SENSE through this ABIOTIC THEORY of OIL.

Abiotic Oil may be happening on a fractional basis on a small percentage of oil fields. Oil fields are declining all over the world... and there is no evidence that oil fields are filling back fast enough to offset depletion. It is a nice theory on paper, but fails miserably in practice.

APEX101.... I can empathize with you on NATGAS. I am not a bull in natural gas, but rather someone who can spot a LIE and FAILURE. The Shale Gas Industry as it stands today is based on a BIG LIE and is becoming a GREAT FAILURE. I do know that the price of natural gas will have to rise or we are going to see a serious collapse in Shale Gas Production.

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:39pm

I'm with you Dr. G...

...I have come to realise that gold and especially silver are just too darn volatile and risky and well useless in this day and age. A nice wholesome diversified portfolio of stocks is what I'm doing, oh yeah with plenty of bonds in there too.

And would advise all to follow such sage advice before it's too late, whatever you do, don't load up in the next few days - that would be just plain crazy. The latest iPad looks nice doesn't it?

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:45pm

Turd finally gets it

"Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated."

One year ago, you were the one playing in the casino and your whole site revolved around making money in the casino. Now you finally get it; I couldn't have said it better than the quote above. However Turd, still, you are someone who hopped on a train that was long since in motion (people like GATA, Ted Butler etc got the train moving in 2000 or even before that), and you have learned as much from your readers as the readers have learned from you. You are slowly developing into a valuable platform; just stay modest.

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:51pm

@ Turd finally gets it

whatever Horst... nobody would come here to learn from your comments that's for sure...

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:52pm


I think... I want... to buy silver.

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:58pm


Coming to your senses, that is a good first step. When you start really boosting your portfolio with a solid stable of financial stocks you will have finally arrived at the intended destination. Just keep moving along, stay in line, you are all doing so well. It took some time for me to be reformed as well, dang boat. Good luck to all. (we are a bunch of sarcastic suckers , are we not)

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:04pm

Bought the Dip, Jobs.

I had an old employer 401K that I *finally* rolled over into a self-directed IRA. Today I took some physical off the market and into my IRA account. Easy as snap. I think that pretty much completes my accumulation. I'm done. Whatever the daily price does it does. Long term, I think the trend is up. I think some day they might start shaking the tree hard. Real hard. I keep a cash buffer and other paper just in case. I don't want to have to sell the metals until I'm ready. They go last.

On the job front, I can give you an account from the front lines. I was laid off over 4 weeks ago. Got the unemployment checks kicked in. Fortunately I also had a nice cash cushion for a rainy day saved. I'm in no rush to get back to being chained to a desk -- I've been working 30+ years now. I would categorize my job search as *extremely* passive. Yet, I'm practically having to beat people off with a stick. Lots of phone calls, been on a few on-site interviews, and probably an offer in the works. I realize I'm likely an outlier in this economy, but it sure doesn't feel like a recession. This is probably more due to my profession and location than anything else, but this is where I found myself being out of work in the US of A, and giving to you as another data point...

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:06pm

Everything that is wrong was summed up...

very nicely in Matt Taibbi's article, which I'm sure many of who have read and talked about already.


With all the bullshit about the stress tests (released on Mar 13) not to mention all the chatter about Greg Smith, I am not the least bit surprised this barely got mentioned by the MSM when it was released on Mar 14. Hey, while we're at it, what ever happened with Julian Assange?

With everything going according to script in Europe, BAC shares blasting off above it's 200d MA, the PM's getting pummeled into the dark ages (seemingly with ease), the Dow revisiting the 2008 highs, AAPL stock going WARP 7 and now even rumblings about the SPR hitting the newswires, the EE has obviously got a very good handle on the situation. How this all plays out is a complete mystery to me. Anyway, keep your heads up guys and gals. Life's too short.

Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:07pm

I just went ultra long

I just went ultra long financials via an ETF, and also purchased a relative plethora of BAC and JPM stock. I'm so excited!! Also, both Bank of America and Chase just opened branches right next to my house (and by the Walmart) so I now feel like I own a piece of my neighborhood. It is like I am invested in the community. What a powerful feeling. Owning metals made me feel like I hated everybody. Now I feel like I am going to help America get back to work. I want to contribute in this way.

I had some left over money, so I also went 2x ultra long the Dow, and ultra long the S&P. I know this is the right thing to do. When I look at the fundamentals behind the market it is soooo strong. I have to run. CNBC is doing a special on why the S&P is severely undervalued. HA! They are preaching to the choir, baby!

Bot disinfo.

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:07pm
Punk-Assets Air Garcia
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:08pm

The only thing I'll say to

The only thing I'll say to this is that gold remains over $200 higher than it was at this time last year. 15% to 20% gains annually for a decade plus. These aren't BS figures. So, as comical as the comment is, maybe you should dole out your powder a little more carefully. Peace.



It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Heard that at 49, 45, 40, 38, 37, 36, 35, 34, 33, 32.80, 32.20.

I'm out of ammo.

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:15pm

@ Xeno and Tabberto

if you two juveniles think it's a snigger point people are losing money then why don't you two tossers go find a kindergarten or something equally twatish to suit your attitude round here??

Peace & Love ...arsewipes

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:18pm

@ Dr G

Your sell your stack post almost had me!

Whilst i'd never sell my stack and have in fact become a 'Lifer' regards collecting Silver coins now your post actually isn't so far away from my thoughts at the moment

I've an impending feeling Silver and Gold are in decline for the foreseeable future (very sadly!)

We shall see...

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:18pm

Ooh ooh ooh Dr. G...

Don't forget more AAPL - it's a screaming buy at this point, don't miss that train. Just sold my left nut and my first born to get me some, mmmmm, AAPL.

ClinkinKY Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:23pm

@ Dr G--re "I just went ultra long"

Guess you're just not as altruistic as me. I just sold my stack and wrote a check to the Obama/2012 campaign.

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:25pm

Dr. G.

I was really hoping Blago would reveal how much Obama paid for HIS seat. Either the info. was on his computer that got stolen, or he had a look at Matt Simmons and decided to shut his yap. Sure would like to see Corzine and Holder in the big house.

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:26pm

@ 99th Monkey

Do you read Martin Armstrong?

Very experienced/brilliant market timer.

Consider going long Apple ... stocks could be for take-off while metals maybe in the dumps for a little/long while

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:30pm
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:33pm

Master Turd : the downtrend line from $48..

...second time of asking ...why do you think it's "invalid" ?

The reverse Head & Shoulders pattern you see can also be seen the OTHER way around too!

Second issue: if i have one criticism of Gentlemen Jim Sinclair (and you) is that you both don't play the downside. It's a bit like going into a boxing match only using the long right upper cut but never your short left hook

We're only playing half the game with half the available tools and not part-taking in the short side. Easy meat for the goons. Why?

Why only play the long game and just sit there and take-it (a beating) on the downside??

Your Comrade in (beaten up on the downside) Arms

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:34pm

The Victors?

Is this a quiet h/t to Victor the Cleaner? He ain't no silver bull iirc

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:42pm

Armstrong is on my reading

Armstrong is on my reading list. And what makes you doubt the sincerity of my assertions, good sir? :^)

Been a rough few days out there, tis hard not to let it get to you.

Just read that ZH Iceland article - 'testicular fortitude', beautiful.

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:43pm

Precious Metals bear market

I've been studying the technical analysis and have to conclude that both silver and gold topped at the end of last year. All we can expect now is a slow decline with a few bear traps along the way. The S&P is in a huge rally and Appl stocks look great. I'm going to switch my investment back into stocks. Sell silver, sell gold. Buy Stocks


Mar 15, 2012 - 5:48pm

JPM whistleblower

Just read that JPM whistleblower comment. Looks totally worthless to me. Don't see much value making a website with that kind of whistleblowing, I could have written that.

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:49pm


..thought i picked up some sarc n your tone (ok typing)

New article up on the Armstrong copy site today, just read it, stocks could be for take-off, metals not so good

He had a long-armed spat with Gentlemen Jim over XMas, Martin calling the metals short and Gen. Jim long... paradox i've seen a few times they were actually BOTH proved correct calls in their own right (timing)

I hope they've kissed and made up

Having said that they're both making the same apparently opposite calls again

'Ding Ding' ..Round 2 coming up

Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:49pm

Yeah, but do any of you guys

Yeah, but do any of you guys own a piece of your community via BAC or JPM? I didn't think so. Have fun with your AAPL and Obama campaign donation. Suckers. :)

Mar 15, 2012 - 5:52pm

Physical Supply Getting Tight?

Just got off the phone with my bullion dealer whom I have used for years.

A new company policy has been put into effect.

No more single gold ounce orders! Its now a three ounce minimum, with a twenty five ounce minimum for silver!

By the way - his gold price now adds a $60.00 dollar per ounce premium for gold and a $3.45 premium for silver!

Anyone else running into similar circumstances? To me, this smells of supply becoming very tight - or outright profit gouging. Or both! Time to go and haunt the coin dealers. Not looking forward to it. Most ask too much for junk!


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