History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 15, 2012 - 1:08pm

Wheres my "6 month" bucket.....

... gotta vom! Thanks Blythe for making my last 6-9 months, financially awful!


Hold over Punk-Assets
Mar 15, 2012 - 1:12pm

Not me! I bought some Shiney 

Not me! I bought some Shiney gold eagles this morning

Mar 15, 2012 - 1:14pm

Gold Outlook Calls for Deeper Losses,Copper Aims Higher on US

Gold Outlook Calls for Deeper Losses, Copper Aims Higher on US Data

Talking Points

  • Copper Prices May Recover as US Economic Data Boosts Growth Outlook
  • Gold and Silver Selling Likely to Continue as Inflation-Hedge Demand Fades
  • Crude Oil Has Scope to Recover as Markets Digest Yesterday’s News-flow

Commodity prices are looking to the upcoming US data set for direction cues as global economic growth concerns remain in focus, with the markets looking to a faster recovery in North America to offset a widely expected recession in the Eurozone. Expectations call for somewhat mixed results.

The Empire Manufacturing Activity gauge expected to tick lower in March having hit a 20-month high in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed measure of business confidence is forecast to rise for the fourth consecutive month to hit the highest level since April 2011. Against this backdrop, the weekly Jobless Claims data may serve to tip the scales of sentiment. Economists expect continuing and initial claims to decline in the first and second weeks of March, respectively.

On balance, the markets appear cautiously positioned for a positive outing. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing higher, hinting risk appetite remains generally supported. The Empire print is expected to be the only major blemish on the data set, which is unlikely to undo the boost from otherwise rosy results if the pullback proves to be as shallow as forecasts suggest, leaving January’s breakout from the downward trajectory in place since October 2009 intact.

This means growth-sensitive copper prices are likely to find some a near-term recovery catalyst after yesterday’s selloff. The results are also likely to further discourage QE3 expectations, maintaining pressure ongold and silver prices as traders abandon the need for an alternative store of value. The likely implications forcrude oil are not as clear. Prices fell yesterday after US crude inventories rose and Saudi Arabia pledged to make up any supply shortfall from reduced Iranian shipments. With those factors likely to be mostly priced in at this point, at least a modest pull-up on the back of a firm set of US economic indicators seems reasonable (especially given yesterday’s drop).

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $105.43 // -1.28 // -1.20%

As we suspected, prices broke lower after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick, with sellers taking out 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 106.50 to expose the 38.2% barrier at 104.38. The 106.50 level has been recast s near-term resistance.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1644.88 // -29.22 // -1.75%

As expected, prices moved lower after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance at 1719.76. Sellers are now testing 61.8% Fibonacci expansion support at 1637.93, with a break below that exposing the 76.4% level at 1619.32. Initial resistance is marked by the 50% and 38.2% Fibs at 1652.97 and 1668.01, respectively.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $32.19 // -1.22 // -3.65%

Prices completed a Head and Shoulders top with a break below the formation’s neckline at 32.97, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Initial support has been found at 31.67, the 50% Fib. Continued selling from here aims for the 61.8% retracement at 30.37. The 38.2% level has been recast as near-term resistance. The Head and Shoulders setup implies an overall downside objective at 26.84, which closely coincides with the late December bottom.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.848 // -0.054 // -1.38%

Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance connecting major highs since early February, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 3.808, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 3.696-3.713 area anew. Trend line resistance is now at 3.921.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Mar 15, 2012 - 1:15pm

With respect to the political

Since this thread is veering off into the political realm a bit, and because politics influences economics and finance, let me just say one name to explain everything you need to know about Barak Hussein Obama: Saul Alinsky. If you have not read up on Alinsky's influence on Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the rest of the Statist Party menace, you had better do so. I, too, for the first two years of his Presidency, tried to find a reason to continue to give him the benefit of the doubt. That is, I tried to convince myself that all that I knew about Obama--from Alinsky to his terrorist friends to Jeremiah Wright to his ACORN connections to his Chicago political connection--was something he had overcome and that, in his heart, he really was trying to do the right thing and to do what he believed was good for the majority of Americans and their prosperity. Well, if his duplicity, lies, and deceit had not convinced before, then certainly his duplicity, lies, and deceit throughout the Obamacare/Statist putsch certainly carried the day. When he and his Democrat cronies in Congress lied, bribed, and deceived their way to passing, in spite of 200 year old rules that would otherwise have prevented it, the single largest power grab since Lincoln attacked and subjugated an entire sovereign nation, it was clear that he and Reid, Pelosi, Frank, etc were hellbent on bringing down the system as it has existed since WWII. Plain and simple--do within the American system of government and politics what Alinsky had taught them to do in neighborhood organizing. Destroy so you can rebuild the thing in your image. Divide people, use identity politics, play the race card at every turn, shout down your opponents, use the propaganda machine of the MSM to call the blue sky, red, and the green grass, purple. The election of 2012 will reveal whether American's have any chance at all of restoring a proper Republic. I sincerely doubt it will happen. What a shame. Indeed, for letting it happen, we should all be ashamed.

Mar 15, 2012 - 1:22pm


A little reminder to our British , Irish and European readers on how to avoid getting mugged for up to 20%(here in UK) Value Added THEFT on silver purchases ( lets start using proper language now, TAX is just a fancy word for stealing, thought up by your rulers/owners so you would,nt clock that you were being robbed, its not voluntary and is backed by the threat of violence i.e the definition of armed robbery). You can get more metal for your money by picking it up second hand at car boot sales,antique markets, auctions, pawn shops,(get to know the owner and tell him you will buy his scrap on a regular basis at scrap market rates , remember sterling is 92.5%silver). Get yourself a reasonably accurate set of scales,a magnet (silver is NOT magnetic) and some silver testing acid (available from Cooksons online), acid turns blood red on silver , green ,yellow or anything else is no good, dont get fooled by silver plate its worthless or rather only worth the brass content so picking it up for pennies might still be worth something, if its marked EP or EPNS that stands for electro plate or electro plate nickle silver , British sterling should have a lion passant (looking ahead) or lion gardant (looking over its shoulder) on the hallmark. All my cutlery is now solid sterling, so beautiful and so nice to eat off, and of course germ free(silver anti-bacterial). British coins up to 1919 are sterling silver ( hence pound sterling), from 1920 to 1947 they went 50/50 and thereafter just cupro/nickle. Notice how our money was debased almost immediately after both major wars, they quite literally bankrupted us.

SRSrocco ¤
Mar 15, 2012 - 1:22pm


SORRY about taking up alot of space in the blog, but I thought it is important to show what a mess the Shale Gas Industry has become. A great deal of Americans have been SOLD A BILL OF GOODS that this will be our SAVIOR. Hell, even Ben Davis stated that there is no PEAK OIL in a recent interview on KWN. I was simple astounded that a man of his character could believe that sort of thing.

Lastly... the graph that shows the DESTRUCTION of SHALEHOLDER VALUE was up until 2009. Can you just imagine how bad it is now???

Jeeeeeesh.... I am simply amazed at the amount of STUPIDITY and IGNORANCE in the media and on the internet. Shale gas is only one aspect of the CESSPOOL of INSANITY.

It gets even worse when we look at the DIESEL-FUEL CONSUMPTION in the mining industry. This will be discussed in my next two articles.

Thanks for the opportunity in presenting some of this information here on Turds Blog.

Mar 15, 2012 - 1:25pm

CME's Daily Delivery Report

It was another quiet delivery day on Wednesday...and the CME's Daily Delivery Report only showed that 32 gold and zero silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow.

by Ed Steer

Mar 15, 2012 - 1:26pm

Hey nibblers . . .

Looks like this nibbler, for one, waited a bit too long:


My favorite Mexican fractionals from a preferred vendor are all "Temporarily Out of Stock" - except the 50 and 10 peso.


Mar 15, 2012 - 1:27pm

Silver analyst Ted Butler's mid-week commentary to his paying su

Silver analyst Ted Butler's mid-week commentary

"The current deliberate smash down in prices today is following the usual script. It is very important that you understand what is happening. Silver (and gold) prices are not declining because leveraged long speculators on the COMEX started selling. Prices were deliberately set lower in order to induce that leveraged long liquidation. It’s all in the sequence of events; prices are set lower first, then the selling comes in. Prices are set lower through HFT, usually at times when trading is thin, through collusion among the traders identified as commercials, but who are in reality only speculators out for a quick buck. This collusive price rigging is at the heart of everything illegal under US commodity law."

"It is very simple to prove that the COMEX commercials are acting collusively to rig the price of silver and gold. The proof lies in what occurs as a result of the price rig jobs to the downside. The results of current deliberate price smash are no different from the results of all the previous deliberate price smashes over the years. The results are always that the commercials are big net buyers on these sell-offs. I have never seen an exception to the commercials buying on the big sell-offs. You need look no further than last week’s COT which I discussed in the weekly review. A big down move in price always equals big commercial buying. Always. A reasonable person would have to question how such results could be possible in a free market. Are these commercials such skilled traders that they are always big net buyers of COMEX silver and gold contracts on the big down days? Or are they just the luckiest sons of guns in the world?"

"I would submit that it is neither skill nor luck that enables the commercials to always be big net buyers on the important down days, as that is just not possible. To believe that is to believe a fantasy. Such results can only be achieved through collusion and intent. The commercials are always big net buyers on the big down days because they planned and coordinated the down moves in advance. That planning and execution could not possibly be achieved without coordination and collusion. This is not some way-out conspiracy; this is reality. It is also highly illegal."

"Silver approaching neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern". "Intermediate term, we don't want to see the neckline fail with any follow through... see chart". The link to his blog is here.

Mar 15, 2012 - 1:28pm

@ Tecumseh. This thread didn't veer into imagination land

I know this is a place where we like to bounce around conspiracy theories and all that, but that's a whopper of tale you're spinning there. I think you would be better served at silvergoldsilver.com

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