History Is Written By The Victors

216
111
Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  216 Comments

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¤
Mar 15, 2012 - 12:16pm

Greece / IMF

I'm thinking along the lines of what TF had to say recently....Greece is not out of the woods by any stretch. An emergency IMF loan???

IMF Approves 28 Billion-Euro Loan for Greece

By Sandrine Rastello - Mar 15, 2012 11:59 AM ET

The International Monetary Fund approved a four-year, 28 billion-euro ($36.6 billion) loan for Greece as part of a second bailout with euro-area countries.

The Washington-based IMF said 1.65 billion euros will immediately be disbursed under the new arrangement.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/imf-approves-28-billion-euro-l...

¤
Mar 15, 2012 - 12:13pm

Thanks Turd

Very intriguing indeed. I look forward to what "Winston" might have to say.

My gut feeling is that there are more then a few "names" on here who know exactly what's going on in certain segments of the market and speak from experience and with honorable intentions.

Stay tuned.

henry
Mar 15, 2012 - 12:07pm
ReachWest
Mar 15, 2012 - 12:06pm

Economic Hard-Drive Erased

Thank-you Mr Turd.

The true laws of "sound money" will ultimately prevail. It is imperative that we all continue with the physical stacking plan. The digital finance world can be wiped out as rapidly as a hard-drive is erased.

Be Prepared
Mar 15, 2012 - 12:02pm

Events Moving at an Accelerating Pace

Events Moving at an Accelerating Pace Towards the Great Collapse

Little has changed in the basic outlook. The U.S. economic and systemic-solvency crises of the last five years continue to deteriorate. Yet they remain just the precursors to the coming Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. The unfolding circumstance will encompass a complete loss in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar; a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity; a collapse in the U.S. financial system, as we know it; and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. Outside timing on the hyperinflation remains 2014, but events of the last year have accelerated the movement towards this ultimate dollar catastrophe. Following Mr. Bernanke’s extraordinary efforts to debase the U.S. currency in late-2010, the dollar had lost its traditional safe-haven status by early-2011. Whatever global confidence had remained behind the U.S dollar was lost in July and August. That was in response to the lack of political will—shown by those who control the White House and Congress—to address the long-range insolvency of the U.S. government, and as a result of the later credit-rating downgrade to U.S. Treasury debt.

Those latter circumstances triggered something of dollar selling panic, particularly as reflected in the corresponding buying of gold and Swiss francs, but various interventions, misdirection and manipulations helped to quell the currency disorders. Still, many financial markets were left rocking with the aftershocks of a major shift in the global view of the U.S. dollar.

The economy has underperformed and likely will continue to underperform consensus forecasts by a significant margin. In turn, weaker-than-expected economic growth will mean significantly worse-than-expected federal budget deficits, Treasury funding needs and banking-system solvency conditions.

With the U.S. election just nine months off, political pressures will mount to favor fiscal stimulus measures instead of restraint. The Fed should be forced to provide new “easing” in an effort to continue propping the banking system (the explanation will be an effort to boost the economy). Given the Treasury’s funding needs, the easing likely will in the form of renewed buying of U.S. Treasuries, with the Fed remaining lender of last resort there. Consistent with the precedent set in 2008, the Fed, and likely the Treasury, also will remain in place to do whatever is needed, at whatever cost, to prevent systemic collapse in the United States. All of these actions, though, have costs in terms of higher domestic inflation and intensified dollar debasement

The U.S. dollar remains highly vulnerable to massive, panicked selling, at any time, with little or no warning. The next round of Federal Reserve or U.S. government easing or stimulus could be the proximal trigger for such a currency panic and/or for strong efforts to strip the U.S. currency of its global reserve currency status.

As the advance squalls from this great financial tempest come ashore, the government could be expected to launch a variety of efforts at forestalling the hyperinflation’s landfall, but such efforts will buy little time and ultimately will fail in preventing the dollar’s collapse. The timing of the early days—the onset—of full-blown hyperinflation likely will be coincident with a broad global rejection of the U.S. dollar, which, again, could happen at any time.

With no viable or politically-practical way of balancing U.S. fiscal conditions and avoiding this financial economic Armageddon, the best action that individuals can take at this point remains to protect themselves, both as to meeting short-range survival needs as well as to preserving current wealth and assets over the longer term. Efforts there, respectively, would encompass building a store of key consumables, such as food and water, and moving assets into physical precious metals and outside of the U.S. dollar.

<Rest of the Article>
Be Prepared
Mar 15, 2012 - 12:00pm

Gold Investment Explosion - Ranting Andy....

Gold Investment Explosion

Many erroneously view gains in absolute terms, forgetting one’s financial standing is more relevant in relative terms to “competing” investors. For example, even when gold fell 30% in late 2008 (entirely due to the Cartel, I might add), it dramatically outperformed stocks, real estate, and ALL commodities. Not that investors strive for “less losses” – as opposed to “more gains” – but markets cannot be controlled, particularly whengovernment intervention is a key systemic factor.

PM investors have been put through sheer agony over the past decade, with manydestroyed by the Cartel and others – like myself –scarred but better for the experience. However, gold and silver prices have risen more than any asset class over this period, doing so while others – residential real estate, for example – actually declined. Thus, PM holders were rewarded for their mettle with the double jackpot of superior absoluteand relative returns.

Better yet, after twelve years of rising prices, PM fundamentals are stronger than ever, thanks to GLOBAL MONEY PRINTING rising faster than gold production AND a Cartel that has suppressed prices below market-clearing levels. Not to mention, those who survived this long have become STRONG HANDS – i.e., unlikely to sell under anycircumstance – particularly if they were wise enough to convert a significant portion of their PM “investments” into PHYSICAL gold and silver. Remember, PAPER gold and silver (GLD, SLV, futures, mining shares) are “investments” that fluctuate in value, while PHYSICAL bullion is “savings” that CANNOT be lost unless required to be sold for near-term financial obligations.

Once again, I want to note the secular nature of most investors’ thought processes, focusing solely on absolute price levels, ignoring countless, equally important factors. The first is the aforementioned relative returns, the second is real returns (adjusting for inflation), and finally, “seismic shifts” in global investment trends such as the movement out of PAPER assets and into REAL ITEMS OF VALUE – PHYSICAL gold and silver, ENERGY, and AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, to name a few.

Throughout history, politicians have always succumbed to the temptation of fiat currency, lured by rich, charismatic bankers that bribe them with campaign contributions and other perks in exchange for the monetary reigns. This is why we have seen a series of debt-fueled booms over the centuries, with the same inevitable result – exponential MONEY PRINTING, financial collapse, and hyperinflation.

Such busts occurred “microcosmically” in the 1930s and 1970s due to loose monetary policy (i.e., isolated to certain nations), but in both cases yielded dramatic increases in gold as a percentage of global assets, per the chart below. In 1932, gold prices were fixed at $20.67/oz, so its growth to 20% of ALL GLOBAL ASSETS was due to the aforementioned “relative effect” – i.e., gold stood still while everything else crashed; while in the late 1970s, gold and mining shares surged while other assets stagnated, particularly in real terms as inflation was a major factor. Remember, in the 1930s, the U.S. and other nations were still on gold standards – thus, inflation was not an issue – as opposed to the 1970s, when all gold standards had been effectively abandoned.

<Rest of the Article>

achmachat
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:56am

thurd time thurd!

I only know one guy called Victor, but he is not a historian!

tpbeta
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:54am

First

Sounds like Britain's wartime prime minister is saying buy. Might have to agree.

Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 11:54am

Oil

From the last thread:

Per ZH, the US (and UK) have agreed to release emergency oil reserves. Doesn't O'Bummer remember what happened last time he tried this? Prices back to where they were originally in less than 2 weeks.

Obvious that he is trying to win the election, oil prices be damned. I don't think he understands that PRICE is not a valid reason to use EMERGENCY oil supplies, which only TEMPORARILY change the price.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-official-us-uk-release-oil-stocks

Turd, thanks for the post. Glad to hear Winston's knowledge will now in part be your knowledge.

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