History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.


However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 15, 2012 - 2:09pm

Turd: Re. Whistleblowers

I think Kcap has a great suggestion. But why not think bigger? Desperate times call for desperate measures ...

You seem to have connections with many of the other main bloggers and forums (ZH, Silver Doctors, BrotherjohnF, Harvey, Jesse, TraderDan, SGS, Screwtape Files etc etc etc), correct?

Why got get some correspondence going, and have all your sites post the same banner for all potential whistleblowers, and provide one site (maybe with Kcap's help) where they can come clean?

It might be tilting windmills ... but on the other hand it might not.

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:13pm

sarc /sarc

Tabberto, all the sarcastic wailing is a great tool for a bot disinfo campaign but unfortunately it also throws a lot of people off balancewink

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:19pm


If you have some free time, you might want to debunk this guy.

He espouses the abiotic oil theory, the dollar and the US will be fine after the crash and our foreign policy is based upon preventing China from acquiring resources, though it is really about the Dollar prominence!


China, Oil, & Economic Warfare - Coast to Coast AM - 14.3.2012 with Guest : James R. Norman Today, China is the second largest consumer of oil, just after the United States. journalist James R. Norman investigates the new world geopolitics that is emerging around the needs of both the world's leading superpower and the world's fastest growing economy to secure future supplies of oil. Now, with world oil supplies under pressure, and the US pushing for more sanctions on Iran, China is keen to attract potential suppliers. Oil Conspiracy??

Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 2:21pm

I sold my entire stack (100%)

I sold my entire stack (100%) earlier this morning at $32.35. I'm taking the proceeds and buying some airline stock, and maybe some US government-backed stuff. It seems so much more stable than metals, and more useful also.

So all you suckers can sit around and watch your assets get smaller. I'm thinking everybody should SELL as fast as they can. It's all downhill from here.

I'm also going to go to WalMart to buy some video games and Cheetos. At least I can eat those. You can't eat silver. SELL.

Bot disinfo.

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:22pm

Stackers, rejoice!

For I have just placed an order, meaning . . . Gold should promptly drop back to test the 1550 lows of January.

You can thank me w/ drinks at the bar in the Speak.

You're welcome. wink

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:32pm

SRS In the current market


In the current market considering all things including the high stock of NG. It would seem that all economics forces are maneuvering to pressure the price back up, or else... Would you be willing to say the down trend has enough forces to cause the price to pivot in the near term? I almost have to believe that we will see some quick and big rises at some point. But timing based on my knowledge would still be nothing more than a hunch at best. Thanks again for sharing

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:40pm

Good comment from ZH er Acet, JPM whistle blow

new Acet

Acet's picture Vote up! 18 Vote down! 0

Actually if you're a big bank worried about possible whistleblowers making the news with a story about your company, it's a good strategy to pre-desensitize the public and the media with a flood of highly suspicious whistleblower stories.

Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 2:41pm

Can somebody explain to me

Can somebody explain to me how Blago is in prison, yet all these other crooks are walking free? Anybody?

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:44pm



SEADOCKS....yes, it is true that Chesapeake has moved into liquid oil production because the returns are currently much better. Even though Shale Oil may be more profitable than Shale Gas, it shares the same HYPE and OVER-ESTIMATION in reserves and future production. Shale Oil wells also share the same high depletion rates as does Shale Gas. Shale oil will serve a purpose by providing additional supply of oil in the future, but it will not be at highly sustainable levels of production.

The real problem with these two sources of energy... SHALE OIL & GAS is the high cost of production. Below are graphs showing just how much more expensive it is drilling oil & gas wells over the past several years:


There are two things taking place in the OIL & GAS INDUSTRY. DEPLETION RATES in wells are going exponential at the same time COSTS in drilling are heading exponential. There may be money to be made in this industry....but I caution those jumping in with both hands and feet.

Some may say that costs are increasing due to this relating to the increased money supply. This may be true to some extent, but the fact of the matter is.... the EROI- Energy Returned on Invested is falling in both Shale Oil & Gas.

Soon we will have to wake-up and smell the rotten gas.

BSONG....at some point in time (probably very soon) NATGAS prices will have to rise or we will see a destruction in shale gas production that will take one's breath away. The operators are already cutting back drilling. The problem with cutting back drilling.... supply can fall quickly due to high depletion rates in shale gas.

Back in the 1930-60's.... conventional annual natural gas decline rates were in the single digits. Today they are topping 32% yearly.... and this number will likely increase. We have deluded ourselves into believing HAMSTERS IN A TURN WHEEL can replace TORTOISES IN THE OCEAN.

Be Prepared
Mar 15, 2012 - 2:49pm

@Animal Sacrifice - You need to adopt...

me..... I can help you with your 1,000,000 dollar problem... :-)

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:53pm

Dr G blago didn't play by the rules

Examples are made every now and then

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:55pm

If Winston turns out to be Andrew Maguire

If Winston turns out to be Andrew Maguire, this guy is a complete fraud, pay no attentions to him and the other hustler over at King Fraud News. Yes gold is going higher it could be a bumpy ride. I happen to have first hand knowledge that this guy blow out about 80% of his subscriber base last September. Look at a chart of the EURO it retraced about half of its move from early JAN, guess what gold did about the same, use the forex market as the tell the EURO made it down first has been basing, then gold followed, will do a little basing and next week we should see some PIG weakness.

Mar 15, 2012 - 2:58pm


Thanks for the heads up! Snow storm headed toward me and the LCS tomorrow, but I'm tempted to try dodging snowflakes for the opportunity! laugh

Kcap TF
Mar 15, 2012 - 2:59pm

Response to Turd

Understood. It would be bold and I am not of the legal profession so although I dabble, I am not sure of the ramifications either. I do strongly feel though that a place needs to exist for this. And technically, a site like this allows for folks to post "whistleblows" naturally anyhow. Not sure if you could become a magnet for them....you know, make it known in blogosphere that their "whistleblows" can be stated, aggregated and posted here for all the world to see.

The Turd would be catapulted (not that this is your goal) to blogosphere stardom.

If you have one of the Durdens at ZH as a personal contact, perhaps you could convince them to do it there. Seems the time is perfect. Although...perhaps this will all happen on its own.

It would just be so sweet to have the JPM metals insiders who have seen first hand the manipulation from the inside, "whistleblow" from Turdland....seems appropriate, no? Never before have they had the opportunity to not feel alone if they were to do this thanks to Greg Smith, whether he did it with GS blessing or not. Maybe this has been the plan all along.

Thanks for your ear (eyes).


Mar 15, 2012 - 3:01pm


Speaking of jobs, Chuck sent this tidbit while he was sitting in the airport yesterday morning.

“I saw this in today's post...Talk about the book cookers coming clean! The BLS originally said that St Louis had created 2,500 jobs in 2011...
And the civic leaders were gushing, slapping each other on the back for the "job well done"

Well... A funny thing happened on the way to the forum...The BLS now has revised the numbers to show that St. Louis actually lost 3,900 jobs instead!!!!

Ok I've heard of revisions but by this wide of a percentage margin? Oh... And this was reported on the back pages of the paper, hidden away in a corner hoping that no one would see it!

But I did!”




Mar 15, 2012 - 3:02pm


is the fall guy in whatever happened there - especially when MiloRod is Serbian... he is easier to snuff out without questions.



Mar 15, 2012 - 3:05pm
Louie tread_w_care
Mar 15, 2012 - 3:10pm

Gold or Silver for SHTF?

If the SHTF you want to be holding water, food, steel, lead and brass.

Silver is for barter, gold is for wealth preservation but you will only be able to use them if you escape or make it through the transition period.

Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 3:19pm

@ivars, there is no buy

@ivars, there is no buy signal for stackers. That is why we stack.

Dr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 3:21pm

@Louie, right you are. There

@Louie, right you are. There are also some other things that will come in handy during any transition period. Namely, sunscreen, lip balm, tampons and other feminine products, new socks, etc. It will reach a point where people will give life and limb to have some of those items.

Additionally, condoms will be in high demand, as will antibiotics of any type.

Animal Sacrifice Spazz
Mar 15, 2012 - 3:25pm

@spazz re pesos

I'm having a hard time convincing my self to buy pesos, even though the premium is good. I'm just wondering if you think that Mexican coins are widely recognized and their gold content is well know. I don't feel confident in that respect, especially in a SHTF scenario.

I'd imagine where one lives. Probably the acceptability of Mexican gold and silver peso coins are perfectly acceptable in the USA. They certainly are totally known and acceptable here where I live (Mexico.) USA fractionals are also known and acceptable here in Mexico. If you have to convince someone to accept a 10 peso gold coin, the shit has not yet hit the fan.

Ibu Aye fun o mi opolopo owo.

Mar 15, 2012 - 3:26pm
Mar 15, 2012 - 3:30pm

Natural gas Response to SRSrocco

I was once a natural gas bull. I read all the same stuff about decline rates and over estimates about shale gas. However after being beaten down by price its hard to stay in it.

Thats the steepest forward curve I have ever seen. The proceeding month is 6% higher then the front month. Its impossible to stay long in this market without getting killed by carrying charge.

Even something like january 2014 is trading at $4 almost double what the spot price is trading at now.

Like i said its hard to stay in the futures with natural gas. And i personally hate ETF's. Natural gas might be good but you also might have to wait an extremely long time?

I became a bull when it was $3.30 now its $2.30. I dont think it will go to 1.30 but who knows. Good luck with natural gas though im done with it for a while.

Mar 15, 2012 - 3:32pm

Winston's Home Town?

Mr Ferguson, Is Winston from Oceania?

Mar 15, 2012 - 3:36pm

Jim sinclair

Also has any one ever read any of james sinclairs books? Just curious. Provide some feed back and details.

The Green Manalishi
Mar 15, 2012 - 3:41pm

Will sun still shine on Germany solar power industry?

Will this have implications for Silver.

Is the sun setting on solar? If there's a country on the planet that's embraced the generation of electricity from the sun, it is Germany.


Animal Sacrifice Be Prepared
Mar 15, 2012 - 3:46pm

@ Be Prepared re: Adoption

Thank you for your suggestion. Unfortunately, I already have a husband 25 years my junior who is adamantly against us adopting anyone (we've actually discussed it.) He's never invested a dime, purchased a share of common or preferred stock, a bond or any precious metals. After my family has stacked for three generations, now Justin will probably wind up spending it all on iPads. But I don't care. I'm in love with him and by then, I'll be dead with no children to care about.

Ibu Aye fun o mi opolopo owo

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:06pm
Mar 15, 2012 - 4:14pm

All you Keynesian Socialists Victors !

Wars would be a lot less likely if the people had to pay for them in cold hard cash precious metal money taken in house to house searches ! All you "Proud To Be Socialists" take a bow for your friend Keynes, the war mongerer, who made the wars you complain about so much more fungible ! Monedas 2012 Keeper of dirty little secrets of Socialism ! devil Disclaimer: Any association of these thoughts with Insidious Albion and Numbest 47 is due to your dirty little mind !

Mar 15, 2012 - 4:16pm


was gold in backwardation all day? when is the front month expiration?

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