History Is Written By The Victors

216
111
Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.

TF

About the Author

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tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  216 Comments

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Mantis
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:48pm

JPM whistleblower

Just read that JPM whistleblower comment. Looks totally worthless to me. Don't see much value making a website with that kind of whistleblowing, I could have written that.

Mantis
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:43pm

Precious Metals bear market

I've been studying the technical analysis and have to conclude that both silver and gold topped at the end of last year. All we can expect now is a slow decline with a few bear traps along the way. The S&P is in a huge rally and Appl stocks look great. I'm going to switch my investment back into stocks. Sell silver, sell gold. Buy Stocks

;-)

koan
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:42pm

Armstrong is on my reading

Armstrong is on my reading list. And what makes you doubt the sincerity of my assertions, good sir? :^)

Been a rough few days out there, tis hard not to let it get to you.

Just read that ZH Iceland article - 'testicular fortitude', beautiful.

tpbeta
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:34pm

The Victors?

Is this a quiet h/t to Victor the Cleaner? He ain't no silver bull iirc

Velocity
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:33pm

Master Turd : the downtrend line from $48..

...second time of asking ...why do you think it's "invalid" ?

The reverse Head & Shoulders pattern you see can also be seen the OTHER way around too!

Second issue: if i have one criticism of Gentlemen Jim Sinclair (and you) is that you both don't play the downside. It's a bit like going into a boxing match only using the long right upper cut but never your short left hook

We're only playing half the game with half the available tools and not part-taking in the short side. Easy meat for the goons. Why?

Why only play the long game and just sit there and take-it (a beating) on the downside??

Your Comrade in (beaten up on the downside) Arms

zilverreiger
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:30pm
Velocity
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:26pm

@ 99th Monkey

Do you read Martin Armstrong?

Very experienced/brilliant market timer.

Consider going long Apple ... stocks could be for take-off while metals maybe in the dumps for a little/long while

Teach
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:25pm

Dr. G.

I was really hoping Blago would reveal how much Obama paid for HIS seat. Either the info. was on his computer that got stolen, or he had a look at Matt Simmons and decided to shut his yap. Sure would like to see Corzine and Holder in the big house.

ClinkinKYDr G
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:23pm

@ Dr G--re "I just went ultra long"

Guess you're just not as altruistic as me. I just sold my stack and wrote a check to the Obama/2012 campaign.

koan
Mar 15, 2012 - 5:18pm

Ooh ooh ooh Dr. G...

Don't forget more AAPL - it's a screaming buy at this point, don't miss that train. Just sold my left nut and my first born to get me some, mmmmm, AAPL.

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