History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 16, 2012 - 8:02am

after hearing many many times

over the past 20 years saDDest day in my fathers life, the day jack keNNedy was kiLLed, then having that change one day, living through the death of my liTTle sister. i like to think i can begin to understand how our founders would fEEl about the america we live in today. consumers of everything interested in nothing, it is a groSS stereotype that i sadly sEE repeat through the youth of this country on an aNNual basis. lets face it. or stay in your fOOkin basement.

i have never felt the emotion or aTTachment of my father for this nation. not for our ideals, but for the last 40 years it has bEEn nothing, if not an embaRReSSment.

i consider myself a patriot.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:02am

@ Tecumseh

Well said. It's mind boggling to me that some of the same people here who can see the manipulation of markets refuse to see (or do they?) the clear clues of B.O.'s actions and intentions over the last 3 years.

Mar 16, 2012 - 7:57am


Very nice March historical charts. Nice job!

Mar 16, 2012 - 7:52am


Please do not turn this excellent web site into the trashy grocery store tabloid that is Silver doctors. If this site becomes a whistleblower site you will get every poser and lunatic that has an internet connection and the quality will suffer.

How many of the people we are hearing from now are posers? If you give them a voice, they hurt the few who are not.

The internet gives everyone the ability to say anything with complete anonymity providing the lunatic fringe the capability to destroy an honest movement.

By the response I get to this post, you will see that I am right.

I expect Kcap to go into a tirade.

Kcap, you lost me at the silver colonic cleanse.

Mar 16, 2012 - 7:50am

@ SRSrocco ...it's a Dead Dinosaur in your gas tank

Haha ...i'm in tears ;))

The global Monopolists have come out with some fucking tosh in their day but the "Oil is dead forests/dinosaurs" garbage probably tops the lot (and that's saying something!)

But I can see you're 'attuned' to believing is scare stories (Good Sheepy)... Here's some more scare stories (total crap) for your bedtime reading

Water scarcity /insecurity

Energy scarcity /insecurity

Food scarcity /insecurity

Rain Forest scarcity

Silver scarcity

Gold scarcity

WMD Iraq

WMD Iran

Mar 16, 2012 - 7:45am


Spazz--Yes, Mickey, Larry L., and the essence of other preceding posts had already veered into politics before I posted my explanation. No, it is hardly a conspiracy theory. It is a simple fact. Obama was raised on a steady diet of Leftist propaganda, and was reared on Alinsky's revolutionary theory. If you wish to ignore the facts, you do so at your own (and our) peril. There is nothing in the last 3 and 1/2 years to suggest that Obama is not doing all he can to bring about a new order in American government and society. Again, I tried all the way through to Obamacare to give him the benefit of the doubt. But both the substance of that "law," and the process used to impose it upon a people who wanted nothing to do with it, were the last straws. If you doubt any of this, you had better read Alinsky and take a hard look at what has transpired in this country over the last 3 and 1/ 2 years.

None of this is to say that he is alone. Not by a long shot. At least since Woodrow Wilson (a creepy, utopian internationalist with delusions of messianic grandeur) and FDR (a strong-arming, lying, cheating, power-hungry Statist if ever there was one), this nation has been headed downhill. WWII and its aftermath was a respite that, because of circumstances and the strength of the American people and their institutions, held off the decline for some 20 years. However, once the Left won over the media and the academy, the Statist power-grab was back on, and LBJ, Nixon, Bush I, Clinton, and Bush II carried it out magnificently.

It is important to realize just how much damage Lincoln did with his war against the Confederate States of America, a sovereign nation that he and his Northeastern, monied cronies could not countenance. By asserting the power and authority of one nation to invade and destroy another, Lincoln essentially established that, in America, the Central Power in Washington, D.C. would dictate anything and everything it desired to dictate. It is impossible to overstate the extent of harm to liberty, private property, and free enterprise that resulted from this totalitarian onslaught against the sovereign nation to the South of the United States.

I would encourage you to read history, study philosophy, and grab a dose of reality.

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Be Prepared
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:19am
Be Prepared
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:16am
Be Prepared
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:14am
Mar 16, 2012 - 7:05am

@ velocity - - -

But I do like your anti- tax stance. "evil exists because ordinary people are so fucking stupid- that they do what they are told".

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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