History Is Written By The Victors

Thu, Mar 15, 2012 - 11:51am

Yardwork can be cathartic. The sunshine, fresh air and freedom to think can provide you the necessary clarity.

We've been at this now for nearly a year and a half. My simple intention has always been to thwart the evil intent of The Cartels. When they manipulate and suppress price, it's easy to get discouraged and frightened. They want you to sell. They want you in paper. They want to perpetuate the system that grants them their power. I will not allow it. As long as I have this platform, I'm going to use it. And now is not the time for weakness, nor is it the time for obfuscation. We must be resolute and confident of our fate for we are on the right side of history.

First, you must understand that the Comex paper markets are now singularly populated with Cartel traders and HFT algos (WOPRs). Since the Comex is no longer a trusted and viable metal delivery platform, it has been reduced to a simple shell game where The Cartel hides the bean and shuffles it right before your eyes, occasionally letting you "win" but, ultimately, deceiving you into a big enough bet that, when they finally decide to end the game, you lose more than the winnings you'd previously accumulated. Only chumps and tourists are tricked into playing this "game" on the street. Don't be a chump. Your only "winning move" is to buy physical on every bout of paper price weakness. Take delivery and store it.

However, I recognize that we live in a world where, to a great extent, paper still sets the price of physical. So if we are to forecast impending floors, tops and surges in physical price, we must be able to anticipate when and where paper price will react. My first inclination, of course, is to check the charts. I thought I'd keep it simple today and just give you daily charts with RSIs. Note that in both cases, the metals are within the zone I have predicted for a bottom and the RSIs are close to a bottom, too. Combining the two, it is clear that we are very close to a bottom of this manufactured "correction", likely within a couple of days.

However, the charts alone cannot provide us with a high enough level of confidence to march forward with full confidence. As we go forward, the disconnect between the paper illusion and the physical reality will become more stark. Though paper metal will still be quoted by various media and other agents of disinformation, underlying demand for physical will continue to be the primary determinant of trend.

To that end, I've recently uncovered a valuable new source of information. You see, being "Turd" has its privileges. Chief among them is the truly global list of contacts I have made. (Frankly it's astonishing and somewhat surreal. I'm even chuckling to myself as I type this.) In reaching out to these contacts, one connection led me to another, which led me to another, which led me someone whose insight and experience in the physical arena is invaluable. Let me assure you: He is not a figment of my considerable imagination nor is he himself an agent of disinformation. He is a real person and someone I feel that we all can trust. Let's simply call him "Winston".

In getting to know Winston, I feel that he has some great, extra perspective to add to the analysis here. I'm sure that he won't chime in all that often...frankly I wouldn't presume to bother him that frequently. However, from time to time, I hope to tap his vast knowledge of the international spot and physical markets so that all of us in Turdville can benefit from his unique perspective.

As this relates to the current Cartel shenanigans, Winston has passed along the following:

  • He, like us, observed the nearly 600 tonnes of paper gold that was unloaded upon the paper gold "market" at the initiation of this manufactured event. A clear sign that another Cartel attack had begun.
  • The selling has now progressed to the point that new spec shorts are being added daily. As noted here, this can be seen in the daily OI reports and indicate that the end of the decline is near, probably within the next 2-3 days.
  • Strong demand for physical gold at current price levels prevents any significant, further decline and sets the stage for a rapid, short-covering rally to begin once the trend shifts back to short-term bullish.
  • Because, post MFG, The Comex is no longer seen as a safe conduit for physical delivery, almost all new open interest there is paper-based, HFT and Cartel trading. (Confirming what I mentioned above.)
  • The HFTs that are currently short will be "tripped" back into "long mode" when gold recrosses and closes above the 200-day moving average, currently near 1680. Therefore, above that point, we should see an acceleration to the upside.

So, let's relate all of this to everyone here in Turdville. If you're trading, the possibility for additional downside still exists, however, we are very close to a bottom and there is likely some fiat to be made during the early stages of the recovery. If you're stacking, take advantage of this temporary, paper-induced drop in price to add to your stack. It is unlikely that you'll see gold and silver at these levels again soon, if ever.

Have a great day and keep the faith. We will be the winners in this fight for we are on the right side of freedom. We will write the history when the new era dawns.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Mar 16, 2012 - 6:24pm

Just for the sake of argument...

Wesley Clark: The Guy Who Almost Started World War III
by Stella Jatras
August 23,


Read more:https://www.antiwar.com/orig/jatras12.html

Jan Roos
Mar 16, 2012 - 5:43pm

@99 Zimbabwe

I am from South Africa and remember a local news clip that showed people lining up for gas and very few stations acrually had gas. Only USD and SA Rand was acceptible currency and the clip showed how people would dig all day in a riverbed for a spec of gold which they used to buy a loaf if bread. Some days they digged all day to find nothing. A few ounces of gold would have saved many of them for sure. Cheers Jan

Mar 16, 2012 - 4:19pm

Hi SRS! Thanks for putting


Thanks for putting that report together and presenting it. I would add a few points for consideration:

* Part of the reason that shale gas is NOT viable at the current price regime is BECAUSE the hype over the potential from shale gas plays and the perceived notion of a glut has driven prices to where even conventional gas plays are losing money.

* The for lower gas prices are lower gas prices. As more demand shifts to NG consumption to take advantage of low gas prices, the producers have been curtailing production and reducing their capital budgets for future drilling. So the overall inventory is going to decline, along with the decay in production output from shale gas itself, and that should push NG prices higher.

* While some shale plays are sure to be a bust, there are other plays where higher rates of production have been achieved, and the production decay is less severe. So my opinion is the entire upside from shale is not a bust, but like any other resource, more rational development will prevail and operators will not just randomly drill on the assumption of a sure thing. This is no different from development in conventional gas or oil basins.

My synopsis on the industry is that just like unconventional oil resources, there will come a time when the shale gas can make money, but it will come from a selective approach to development, and to satisfy demand when the price regime for NG overall is much higher. This is similar to the development curve that we witnessed for the oilsands in the 1980s. When the perception of a boom fades, more rational development will happen, and the assets will be available at more distressed prices so the economics will make more sense from an operating point of view as well.



Mar 16, 2012 - 11:15am

Just bored this morning and havin fun

Just want to address these one at a time

Water scarcity /insecurity: Absolutely going to become a huge issue, due to the enormous amounts of pollution being introduced into the worlds water supply, Just two Examples: Oil Spill in the Kalamazoo River due to a pipe line breaking. The Mrs. and my son spent two weeks out of her August vacation cleaning oil off of the local animals that were contaminated. That was last summer. There are still oil collection bouy's from the spill point in Marshall mi. all the way to Lake Michigan. Fresh Water Supply Toast.

Example Two: The radiation from the Fukushima Nuclear incident. (That is still leaking) has been detect 400 miles out to sea. Salt Water and Fish Stocks in that ever expanding area, Toast

Energy scarcity /insecurity: Self Replenishment THEORY and Peak Oil THEORY are just that Theories, without good hard scientific evidence It is always best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And you are right they use this one to scare people and make them insecure

Food scarcity /insecurity: Another Definite Issue, Genetically modified seeds do not allow for self reproduction to take place. They are being forced on farmers around the globe by companies like Monsanto to keep them dependent on a corporation for the seeds to grow the food that people eat. This concentration of direct control of the food supply is getting to a critical level. It is not hard to imagine people being priced out of food in the future. In kind of the same way people that are lower on the earnings curve are priced out of Gold. Two Contamination in the food supply is rampant. Not only with things such as E-Coli, but with Hormones and other chemical compounds that we have no idea what the long term effects on the human body are

Rain Forest scarcity: Seems to be more scare tactic as to the effects of deforestation effects on the earth. One would have to buy into Al Gore and whole Global warming-Carbon Tax Credit Scheme, I Do Not. But there is no doubt that for the indigenous people of these area it is a detrimental effect. Disrupting centuries of life styles and self sufficiency and replacing it with dependence on area governments that are very corrupt.

Silver scarcity: No Brainer just taking a serious look at the basic fundamentals of how much silver comes out of the ground and the uses that humans have made out of this very unique metal. And how much gets put right back into the earth when the usefulness of what ever the silver is in goes to the dump.When doing this I did not even look at the Paper Market end of it due to the daily evidence of serious manipulation in the paper. And it still ends up in the scarce category for me.

Gold scarcity: Not so much scarce for all due to it's position as a store of wealth. But definitely scarce for some due to it's price

WMD Iraq: Another No Brainer. Duh of course there were WMD in Iraq, Hell The U.S. sold it to Saddam back during the Iran/Iraq war. He even used them on his own people in the north of his country. Just a fact of history, Now turned into some kind of conspiracy theory. Funny how they can do that Huh?

WMD Iran: Do not have a clue history has not come to pass as with Iraq above. But man I can not help but think back to a video of retired general of the United States Army Wesley Clark giving a speech to the Commonwealth Club of California, October 3rd, 2007. That has always stuck with me. Especially in these days when we are hitting all these mideast targets https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY2DKzastu8

Mar 16, 2012 - 10:57am


I understand completely. No "official" whistleblowers here. Got it. I wasn't expecting it here anyway, it was just an idea. We'll find another venue.

Silver colonic cleanse? Did you read what I wrote? I suspect you should use your Obamacare to get you some new glasses.

"Colloidal" silver can cure anything. Do the research and you won't sound foolish. I didn't make the rules....


KcapI Run Bartertown
Mar 16, 2012 - 10:51am

Think logically for a moment (IRB)

What would you do with Blythe Masters, Jamie Dimon, John Corzine and the rest of the crew....shoudl they just roam free, while utilizing their existing power structure to control everything? How is my thinking Leftist? Do you think you are being Rightist just pronouncing something ridiculous like that? These people won't change unless they are re-taught basic common and universal law, such as the Golden Rule....and many others. This is the re-education I speak of. At some point, they dropped all care for their fellow man to benefit a select few (their institution, which they think is a God)....they fight for something (the institution) which isn't even human itself. It is a shell. It contains humans but it isn't human. Do you understand that? Its just a big game to them, a power tug-of-war that they have to win to sustain their livelihood....they are vampires, constantly seeking new blood.

Try and look at this from another perspective. Its 3-dimensional, at least....


Mar 16, 2012 - 9:38am
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:15am

Hear Hear!

moved to new thread

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Mar 16, 2012 - 8:10am

Gold down -0.80% ..Silver down -1.20%

Good, we're back to the normal 'rate of exchange' between the 2 heavy metals today after a week of Gold being the hare and Silver the tortoise in price action some days... weird!

Still no response from Master Turd on the possibility of a downside Head & Shoulders pattern emerging and why he thought it was "invalid"

But Mr T kindly linked to General Jim Sinclairs latest thoughts on CNBC, sorry KWN Radio Propaganda, whose earlier Gold trading range of $1,700 to $2,100 prediction for the year was not as positively put forward as he'd previously claimed (ie. we could be in for a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern then"!)

As one of the worlds worst top/bottom/momentum/prediction pickers I'm not saying it could be which H&S shoulders pattern emerges but if Gentleman Jim (and very much more sheepish James 'Goin on a Tear' Turk) has reviewed his outlook to a certainly more sheepish one will Mr T not throw his hat in the ring on this one!

Are we allowed to go short in Turdville???

Number 47
Mar 16, 2012 - 8:09am

new thread

new thread

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI