Literally Sick To My Stomach

Tue, Mar 13, 2012 - 5:26pm


Seriously, I feel sick to my stomach. So disgusted I could puke. As I try to write this post, I really don't even know where to start.

Let's start here: This Fed nonsense. Did I miss something? What, exactly, did The Bernank say 2 weeks ago today that caused an ounce of physical gold to suddenly be valued $100 less? And today, what, exactly, was in the FOMC minutes that caused an ounce of gold to lose almost $40? Anyone? Anyone???

All I know is what I heard and what I heard was that the Federal Reserve remains committed to this low interest rate environment through late 2014. THAT'S ANOTHER 30+ MONTHS! All the rest is bullshit, SPIN and MOPE. And it goes without saying that this is true. What other choice do they have? As discussed here ad nauseam, INTEREST RATES CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO RISE. Not now, not next month, not next year, not ever! Period. End of story. Hallelujah. Holy shit. Where's the Tylenol?

Remember and NEVER FORGET that even Status Quotians are smart enough to buy gold during periods of negative real interest rates (Please re-read for a primer: .) and the Fed just reaffirmed today that real rates will remain negative for the next 2.5 years! THIS IS DECIDEDLY PM BULLISH, NOT BEARISH.

Ah, but you see it doesn't matter. All that matters is what The Fed wants. They are in charge. They are the market. They will make it do whatever they want it to do. The must manage perceptions. They must get their media lapdogs and shills to SPIN and deceive. The only thing that matters is this:


Google "Bernanke Wealth Effect" and start reading. You'll find that The Bernank is a BIG BELIEVER. He also knows that the ONLY WAY OUT of the collapsing keynesian ponzi is through the wealth effect and growth. You and I know it ain't happening but ole Ben's gonna try. So rates MUST STAY LOW. Stocks MUST GO UP. And gold MUST BE KEPT IN CHECK to help maintain the illusion that all is well.

The problem is: It ain't working. People aren't stupid. Well, let me re-phrase that...not everyone is stupid, particularly the very wealthy and the leaders of China, Russia, India et al. THEY SEE THIS FOR WHAT IT IS. They will continue buying gold regardless of the paper game bullshit on the Comex. Jamie can order Blythe to dump as much paper gold as she can create but all she's doing is disconnecting paper from physical and confining their fate to irrelevance.

As you know, I'm on the record as claiming that the lows of this recent "manufactured correction" were reached last week and I've still got a shot at being right. Gold double-bottomed this afternoon and silver never broke 33. This may have been IT and sanity may soon return. We'll see. In the meantime, please avoid committing any significant money to paper trading. Your only option is to stack physical metal. Period. Trading paper with leverage is an almost certain way to bankrupt yourself, particularly in gold and silver where the only market participants remaining are WOPRs and the Cartels that perpetually "game" them for profit. This may sound like strange advice from a guy who is about to begin charging a small fee for "trading advice" but IT'S TRUE. I beg you NOT TO TRADE ON THE COMEX. If you want to take my TA and fiddle around with 100 shares of AGQ, fine. However, anyone attempting to "trade" on the Comex is foolish to the point of being downright, Forrest Gump-level dumb. Don't do it.

To that end and to graphically illustrate all of the above, what do you make of these four charts? What happened right at 3:26 EDT? Something must have happened. Why would all four of these move down in unison? Then ask yourself, who has the power to make this huge, basket trade? Who has this level of money? Not only to affect this trade but to absorbe the loss generated by literally DUMPING on these markets afterhours? Hmmm. SPIN/MOPE/SUPPRESSION?



Anyway, as mentioned above, the lows from last week DID MANAGE TO HOLD this afternoon. We would still appear to be very near a bottom in paper price. Please use this weakness to buy more physical.



And, if, in the end, you are looking for overt QE3, it appears to be getting close. As we've noted since late last year, the clue to the initiation of overt QE is the action in the 10-year note and the long bond. Well, both appear to be rolling over and breaking down. IF this continues, a formal Fed announcement will soon follow.


Lastly, Jim Comiskey phoned me over the weekend to inform me that he was onto something no one else was talking about and he included it in his Friday video. I suggest you watch it. The action starts at about the 10:00 mark. (Nice work, Jim!)

Video unavailable

Interestingly, Turdite "Reach West" watched this and then went in search of the same online document and found that important parts had been redacted. NO! REALLY?!?! IN AMERICA?!?!

Submitted by ReachWest on March 13, 2012 - 11:44am.
In Jim Comiskey's video of March 9th (referenced by Turd in comments above), Jim talks about the fact that 2 NE refineries have shut down due to [the companies] being unwilling to comply with new EPA regulations.
Jim is referring to the EIA report, dated Feb 27 [PDF Linked Here]. At about 11:35 in Jim's video, he reads from the first paragraph on page 1 of this EIA Report that two refineries were closed ".. due to EPA regulations, that the companies refused to meet .."
Now take a look at that EIA report, that particular bolded line is no longer in the paragraph. It appears that they have REMOVED all the references to EPA regulations being the culprit for the Refinery closures, from the report.
Someone at the EIA must have caught hell for telling the truth - Very interesting.

So, put it all together and I am just sick to my stomach. It's all bullshit and lies. Anyone that tries to tell you otherwise is either simply naive or stupid. Your government lies. They all cover for each other and try to blame anyone and everyone for their transgressions for the simple intention of maintaining their power. The Fed, at the behest of the politicians and in an obvious attempt to maintain their own power, lies and steals and cheats and manipulates and SPINS and propagandizes to the extent that there are no longer and free any fair markets anywhere. Everything is simply controlled and massaged for the expressed purpose of creating an illusion of normalcy and prosperity. WELL DON'T BUY IT! PROTECT YOURSELF AND DO IT NOW. KEEP STACKING PHYSICAL METAL AS IT IS YOUR ONLY TRUE SOURCE OF FINANCIAL PROTECTION. IGNORE THE MEDIA AND MARKETS. LOOK AWAY FROM THE LIES. BELIEVE IN YOURSELF AND TRUST YOUR INSTINCTS. PERSONAL GOOD JUDGMENT AND WISDOM ARE YOUR ONLY HOPE.

God help us all.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Be Prepared · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:30pm
SRSrocco · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:33pm




SECONDLY... I don't have time to post about how much of SHALE GAS is a FACADE today. For now I will leave you with the Gulf of Mexico THUNDERHORSE-ATLANTIS-TAHITI production:

Production is down 50% in these three rigs since OCT 2009. SHALE GAS is BS. SHALE OIL is BS. I will write a post in the next few days.

ivars · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:39pm

Accuracy of silver prediction chart on its first anniversary

Hi, reposted this from the very end of the previous thread.

Today is exactly one year since my long term silver spot price prediction chart was created and published on March 13th, 2011, here:

Disregard most of the text, please, except advice for silver buying in the end:

Quote: So, keep silver, but You can buy or repurchase it cheaper during 2011-early 2012 than now.

I will take the opportunity given by this anniversary to analyze the charts accuracy during and over one year.

One year ago, on Friday, March 11, 2011, Silver closing spot price was 35,9USD/Oz. In my chart on March 13,2011 I predicted that Silver closing spot price on March 13th, 2012 will be 32,5 USD/oz. Today it is 33,4 as I write. So the accuracy of this END-to-END prediction over one year period is about 2,5 %. The green chart is BTW predicting 33, so within 1,5% over 6 months.

Here You can see the shorter term part of the same chart ( red color) with comparison to actual silver spot prices over the year period. I would like to suggest what would have been stacker actions he/she would have followed the original red chart:

1) He/she would never had bought silver above 32,5 USD but waited until it falls below it-except if he wanted to make short term profit on the peaks and troughs in April and August-September by going long before the peak and short at or after the peak.

2) He/she would have bought like hell in October 2011 when closing price was in the range 30-32

3) He/she would have been happily surprised by drop in December -January 2012 and buying with all his money when price went even below 30 USD

4) He/she would have never fallen into traps of April , August-September, October -November and February 2012 excitement and would not have bought above 32,5 -sold may be to make profit and bough back later.

Of course, no one is able to believe in any chart so much, especially from an unknown source, but some reliance on it after it had proved quite accurate ( don't by above 32,5) would have helped after September crash.

But now the scary part comes to test the chart- the fast raise and drop in silver which according to original chart should start already on April 1st 2012, and reach peak by October 2012, OR, according to the same chart that was little bit tuned (green) in October 17th, 2011- slower and later ( from mid June 2012, with a real sharp rise starting mid September, double top November-December 2012).

From both charts, I would say start to believe its going to hit 60-70 in 2012 once its over 45-50 But there will be a crash again, so buying above 45-50 without intent to sell at the peak is not advisable.

Can't wait to see what will happen. I do not trade, but have bought some physical gold to test own charting. If I am as lucky as usual in financial matters, I will loose money. Hope that helps.

All my prediction charts are in one place here:

Groaner · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:43pm

note this

OH yeah, I dont have the brains to write this.

After spending nearly 30 years in lumber and lumber hedging I instinctively know when a market feels non-interfered with, and I can readily identify the anomalies. Here are 20 anomalies that exist in gold that rarely, if ever occur in lumber:

1. Outside day upside reversals nearly always fail.

2. Technicals frequently run askew.

3. Daily chart patterns often look nearly identical.

4. Gold rallies stop at 1%, or, rarely 2%.

5. Gold price plunges are always more violent than price rises.

6. Gold futures margin hikes always impact gold negatively.

7. Gold prices wane on the market open.

8. Gold prices wane on the London close.

9. Gold exceedingly trades "counter-intuitively" on bullish news.

10. Gold often trades in lockstep with the Dow, or other fiat paper products.

11. Gold primarily rises only after U.S. markets are closed.

12. Gold FND and op. ex. days are nearly always bearish, rather than short squeezes.

13. Gold futures and derivatives determine price discovery, NOT physical.

14. Mining stock prices wane, signaling imminent failure in the POG.

15. Most mining companies won't support, or even talk bullish about their own product.

16. True data regarding leased, loaned, or verifiable audited gold is nearly impossible to discern.

17. Those classified as "commercials" are heavily, and perennially short.

18. Those classified as "commercials" sell in thin markets without regard to maximizing profit.

19. Gold analysts who are given the most media attention are actually adversaries- bullion banks, Wall Street companies, derivative traders, etc.

20. Gold analysts who have been dead wrong for 12 years still have credibility, and even more amazing still have a job.

When you look at this list you begin to grasp the magnitude of effort the cartel deploys to discourage gold buying. You also get a perspective of how the odds exceedingly favor a spectacular failure of the manipulation in force. Nothing can go on for so long without producing a dire need for rectification. While gold has indeed risen from $260 to over $1,900 at one point the evidence suggests that heavy ammo has already been spent in that phase of containment. As James Turk suggests a gold price explosion would appear to be imminent. 

securi_D · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:44pm

Beautiful SRSrocco

I can't wait for your next missive on silver. You produce some VERY valuable information. yes

And Turd, as usual, enjoy your analysis. This was obviously​​ manipulation, and whoever says otherwise is willfully blind. But hey, I know this, you probably know this, so what's new? Just another opportunity to add to the stack. They are presenting us with buying opportunities​ of a lifetime ​by willfully smashing the price of gold and silver lower to keep the paper game going.​ Do they realize that these precious metals are finite sources?! Do they realize that it's becoming harder and harder to find this stuff in the ground? Do they realize they can't keep this paper game going forever?

Of course they do!​ They also think that the people are too stupid​ to think otherwise and believe everything they say is for the people and not themselves. Well not here in Turdland. We get it. We see the big picture, and we see the sh*tstorm on the horizon. 

The banksters are scared, and they are painting the tape beautifully. But take heed and be cautious... because they can't keep this up forever. Just remember that.


tread_w_care · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:44pm

@Ivar can you to a shorter time scale Gold Chart Please?

Or point to one in your thread? 


tread_w_care · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:46pm

For Turd et all . . .

Some days sure feel like this

Everything Hits At Once
Groaner · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:48pm

Hey Turd: Your post, Exactly as how I feel about the situation

I never liked being lied to.

Its very hard to determine what is true and false any more

recaptureamerica · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:48pm

Well I think the 3:26 pm

Well I think the 3:26 pm takedown coincided with dimons announcement of stock buyback and dividend increase.. Something had to pay for it...

Beez · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:49pm

Provident has 2012 Gold

Provident has 2012 Gold Buffalos for $65.99 over spot with code 2012buffs. I'm going to buy one to cheer myself up!

SteveW · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:49pm


Today gold is down 1.54% and silver down 0.71%. When did that last happen? The "more volatile" silver is more resilient and the dumpers have failed to penetrate $33. Somehow I get the sense that the goal is to crash silver but its just not working while gold takes it on the chin.

Gold is on sale again but don't wait for silver to hit $32 or $31. If you're stacking the dollar or two means nothing.

ivars tread_w_care · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:51pm


Not good at shorterm. Right now my only shorter term gold chart is 70 USD (4%) above the current price and does not suggest any improvement (raise of price) during March:

I will extend it till July/August at the end of March.

tread_w_care · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:53pm

thank you ivars!

was looking for the equiv red line chart for gold - the silver one is very telling, and I'm glad to report I was reasonably close to your profile of the physical buyer following said red line. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while :).

SteveW · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:55pm

Not a big deal

Winston Smith now has a job at the EIA.

ivars tread_w_care · Mar 13, 2012 - 5:59pm


I find it unbelievable, but You have been very lucky, then! May people I have heard got their fingers burned both last April and September. Well, for a stacker it does not matter long term, but it is still nicer to be buying in dips and have lower average.


recaptureamerica · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:01pm

CFTC Vacates CME Clearing Europe...

CFTC Vacates CME Clearing Europe Limited Registration as a Derivatives Clearing Organization

recaptureamerica · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:03pm
LaMachinna · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:05pm

Tread w/Care....Now,

I'm even more depressed! wink

worldend666 · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:11pm

Looks like someone got caught

Looks like someone got caught with his pants down today. These moves were not big and don't justify such a huge rant.

Captain Silver · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:12pm

Dip bought and stacked

Thanks Turd, I've been waiting to stack some more for a while and pulled the trigger today on what did look like a potential bottom. Stacking opportunity!

I actually hope that we do trade sideways and base for a few more weeks to stack. With Treasury yields starting to creep and nothing solved overseas, any of the next spikes could be the big one for the PMs. While official QE may be delayed, any MINOR liquidity crisis could put the world printers into bailout mode. Greek CDS anyone?

SilverFocker · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:18pm

Only in Amerika

I love this shit, I really do. Buy low, never sell.........until chaos that is.

Ben is a PM stackers friend...I just don't care to involve no one else, tired of stating the obvious with the WTF looks. I just keep adding to what I think is the most needed items along with PM's.

I just spent 41/2oz's of silver on my gas stock. rearranging the garage for more dry food storage and water.......building more shelve's in the basement for canned food.


I'm liking your chart. Personally I see this thing blowing up in 2015 when the Debt to GDP hit's over 150%, but I will take the extra time your chart allows or anything else that kick's the can. There will come a time that the average Joe will will not be able to find, yet buy Pm's, so if that don'e shake the sheep then piss on them.

Kcap · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:18pm

Painting the tape

We just need to understand one thing.

The "tape" can only be painted, because a language was introduced has rules and parameters, each with a set of reactions and counter reactions. When everyone learns the language and rules that accompany it, the masses actually end up "painting the tape" because they are either fearful or greedy in obedience with the TA. If there was no TA so to speak, the markets would be wildly open to movements based on pure FREE market mechanics. This would equate to the "only" level playing field the markets will ever know as not even central control could CONTROL THE MYSTERY. TA has been the death knell of the market as the hoards just "follow" the centrally "LED" TA paint job.


ps. Again, and I am sure he knows it, no knock on Turd. He uses the TA within a manipulated space which helps people navigate through the train wreck that is the neuroses associated with the market doing the exact opposite of what it should be doing. Good grief...even explaining that is ridiculous.

cpnscarlet · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:18pm

@worldend666 - Even if that

@worldend666 - Even if that was the case, we all need a catharsis once in a while.

survivalwstyle · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:19pm

no complaining in march

that is what i have decided in my personal and profeSSional life. making the most of everyday i get. living in the moment. it is working like a champ. may try and kEEp it up aLL year...time to go hit the golf course mrF. smash something, or go for a surf, that always chEErz me up!!!

worldend666 · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:21pm

@ cpnscarlet

Sure, just adding some perspective. I feel like that when I get my fingers burnt too.

I Run Bartertown · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:24pm

Somebody kill this thought

I've taken for granted the truth of "INTEREST RATES CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO RISE" as TF says, but

Consider the possibility that China (and assorted others) divests $ in a manner that the FED can balance by buying (directly or through other banks) the bonds instead. This, to a large degree has already happened. It's not unreasonable to think they can keep it all together long enough that the Fed is the only real debtholder of consequence (just call any others terrorists). And we assume that interest rates cannot rise because .gov cannot afford to service the debt. So they'll print to hyperinflation, collapsing the system...

But from the Fed's point of view, I think they could and would FORGIVE or restructure enough of the debt to come out smelling like roses, and just as in control as ever (probably moreso with new loans collateral-backed). So the .gov debt drops to serviceable levels, and a flurry of new borrowing begins, even at higher real interest rates. Fed still gets paid, but appears to have lessened the need for printing.

Tell me it's impossible so I don't get my faith in the collapse shaken. It's one of the pillars I lean on to get through the day.cheeky

Mantis · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:27pm

Don't get caught up in the noise

They can throw buckets of water back into the sea all they like, slamming the paper price, but they won't stop the tide coming in, the gold bull market. All the lies, mope (what does mope stand for ?) and spin will get found out. Find ways to ground your energy, relax, walk on a beach in barefeet. Pray for their house of cards to fall.

Mantis · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:29pm


Thanks for your charts, I discovered them a few months ago and have noted their amazing accuracy. Planning a few ratios swaps between gold and silver based on your predictions.

Groaner · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:35pm

It would be nice to believe that we just had a double

bottom in gold. But the crooks will probably go for the full Monty down to $1600 if they can. I can't believe the rest of so called smart guys in the hedge funds believe the stuff the Fed says unless they too are in their pockets for inside info?

Dobocop · Mar 13, 2012 - 6:39pm

3 x 1/4 maples and 50 moose added to the farm in the past week

Two well timed buys In the last three months, and I have got over last years madness. Three years ago I started stackin and only now am I confident that I have enough of the shiny to weather what ever comes my way. Silver gold bull Silver gold silver And of course turd. Thanks again.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales