Gold and Silver in Dullsville

Mon, Mar 12, 2012 - 4:14pm

So much for the expected volatility. After all the wailing and grinding of teeth over Greece, the market impact was negligible. U.S. stocks and bonds have been in a quiet, tight range all day. Yawn. However, the lack of buying enthusiasm allowed The Cartels to press their advantage in the PMs and down they went.

Really, it seemed that the only things moving today were crude, gold and silver. I guess I can kind of see a scenario where one might sell both crude and gold but silver, too?? It just wreaks of the continued, repressive and nasty manipulation scheme we are all sick of. If gold and silver were simply left to trade freely, today might have held the same boring, flat trading that we saw in stocks. Instead, when crude sold off, The Cartels attacked and tried to shove both metals down and away from the resistance levels against which they were beginning to press up. Fortunately for us, both metals eventually found some significant buying support and now those levels should serve to contain further Cartel advances later tonight.

With today behind us, the question becomes: What will the rest of the week hold? Well, keep in mind how rarely the metals trade in the same direction all week. If Monday and Tuesday are UP days, Wed-Fri usually feel some pressure and vice versa. Last week was your latest example. Today, the metals we pressed lower BUT they both found solid buying support. This should make the remainder of the week set up favorably. I'm still highly confident that the lows for this "manufactured correction" are in at 1680 and 32.80 but, clearly, in this post-Greece environment, anything remains possible so we must remain on guard.

Only one news item for you and it is linked below. Again, all the talk about resumption of overt QE is just simply nonsense. QE is ongoing and infinite as the U.S. government ran a $232B deficit in February alone!

That's it for now. Today was so boring that I simply don't have the enthusiasm to continue. More later if conditions warrant but I'll most likely file another update in the morning. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 13, 2012 - 5:54pm

Silver analyst Ted Butler

Silver analyst Ted Butler had a few things to say about SLV short selling in his weekend commentary to his paying subscribers. Here are three paragraphs that I've borrowed on this...

"You know I've made this SLV short selling as big a deal as possible...and that I am eternally grateful to those of you who took the time to write to SLV’s sponsor, BlackRock, to pressure them to help reduce the short position. I’ve also discussed previously the threatening letter that I received from BlackRock’s attorneys back in December and how a subscriber (a European money manager) told me at the time how he felt that was good and how it would work towards reducing the short position. What I didn’t tell you about was a brilliant suggestion he made at that time. His suggestion was so brilliant that I felt embarrassed that I wasn’t smart enough to think of it on my own. At least, I was smart enough to instantly recognize it as being brilliant. I used his idea in my response to BlackRock’s lawyers and I firmly believe it may have been the deciding factor behind the dramatic subsequent decline in the short position of SLV (and GLD)."

"Regular readers should know that I am very sensitive about my work being plagiarized by others...and I am also sensitive that I not do that to anyone else. My friend wishes to remain anonymous, so I won’t release his name, but I can reveal his observation. He pointed out that the short selling in shares of SLV; in addition to creating shares being issued on an unauthorized basis and resulting in shares not backed by actual metal as required by the prospectus, resulted in something else as well. Any shorted shares would also result in shares being issued in which BlackRock wouldn’t collect a management fee (0.5% annually)."

"So not only were the shorted shares fraudulent to SLV my wife...and manipulative to the price of silver; these same shorted shares were depriving BlackRock and its shareholders of income, which I calculated at $5 million for 2011. By cracking down on the shorted shares, BlackRock would be hitting three birds with one stone and, to boot, be doing the right thing as well. That BlackRock and its attorneys saw the wisdom of this and reacted accordingly (by moving to get the short position reduced) is what I think came about. Certainly, the timeline more than supports my conviction. As I said, this was a brilliant suggestion for which silver investors everywhere owe this anonymous money manager a nod of appreciation."

By Ed Steer

I Run Bartertown
Mar 13, 2012 - 5:51pm


"Assuming you have the guts to challenge your own "conservative" leanings..."

I'm not remotely conservative. Whatever I might have conserved at one point is long gone. The US should be 3-4 countries at a minimum - is that a 'conservative' position?

I used to be a Libertarian and 'Patriot', fond of the Founding Fathers. I still am fond of them, but they were not patriots. They rose up against the power ruling them. They earned (by right of conquest - violence and killing) the right to cast down their rulers and put in a system of their choice. That is the means by which governments get smaller.

But they had the advantage of a better quality populace. For lack of a better option at the moment, I am a post-apocalyptic tribalist. Which is good for me, because that's where we're all headed.

So, soon, I get to be the optimist. And silver at $65 too. Whew, life is too good!

Mar 13, 2012 - 5:50pm

The CME Daily Delivery Report

The CME Daily Delivery Report was pretty quiet, as only 13 gold and 9 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow.

There were not reported changes in GLD yesterday...but an authorized participant withdrew 339,987 troy ounces of silver from SLV yesterday.

One thing that I forgot to mention in my Saturday column were the changes in short interest in both GLD and SLV. For the third report in a row, they both showed declines. GLD's short position declined 8.76%...from 11.09 shares to 10.12 million shares held short.

SLV's short position declined 16.05%...from 12.55 million shares/ounces down to 10.53 million shares/ounces. Ted Butler was a happy camper.

The U.S. Mint had another sales report yesterday. They sold 2,000 ounces of gold eagles...and 320,000 silver eagles.

The Comex-approved depositories reported that no silver was added on Friday, but 620,117 troy ounces of silver were withdrawn...all of it out of Scotia Mocatta. The link to that is here.

By Ed Steer

Mar 13, 2012 - 5:40pm

sixty five silver - - -

Egon Von Greyerz and Ivars are both calling a big jump in silver soon. Both these guys are consistently accurate. I'm confident it will happen.

Mar 13, 2012 - 5:29pm

Yes, Ivars...

...the red line chart is freaky good. I sure hope you're right about $65 silver

Mar 13, 2012 - 5:18pm

Thanks 47

47 you've given me lots of food for thought. Same goes to 99th monkey who is doing a good job defending my libertarian stance.

All I know is I instinctively don't like authority telling me what I can and can't do, I got fined in New Zealand for not wearing a seatbelt. I felt incredible angry at the time as if I'd been mugged by the police. Just a small example I know. Scaling up, I felt incredibly angry when Blair and Bush took UK and USA into an invasion of Iraq.

I think the answers could lie in decentralisation of everything. When Power is centralised it becomes dangerous. When it is decentralised it is for the benefit of all.

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
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Mar 13, 2012 - 5:11pm

congratulations Ivars - -

That is a monumental success.

Moderator Holliday
Mar 13, 2012 - 5:03pm


Equating religion with any chem trail dialog is a big stretch.

I had asked and reminded posters, just prior to your 'invitation' to further the discussion, that the the religious debate I saw gaining steam would be better served if it was moved elsewhere or ceased at that time. My post just before yours was clear. Maybe you missed it or just chose to ignore it. Idk.

The chem trail proponents would be better served to start a thread amongst them so others here can go there to debate it further and learn and listen to what you have to say. I sense the discussion dissipating already. It's run it's course.


"Doc" prefers to keep his virtual "Peacemaker" out of sight and holstered.

Mar 13, 2012 - 4:59pm

Acuracy of silver prediction chart on its first anniversary

Today is exactly one year since my long term silver spot price prediction chart was created and published on March 13th, 2011, here:

Disregard most of the text, please, except advice for silver buying in the end:

So, keep silver, but You can buy or repurchase it cheaper during 2011-early 2012 than now.

I will take the opportunity given by this anniversary to analyze the charts accuracy during and over one year.

One year ago, on Friday, March 11, 2011, Silver closing spot price was 35,9USD/Oz. In my chart on March 13,2011 I predicted that Silver closing spot price on March 13th, 2012 will be 32,5 USD/oz. Today it is 33,4 as I write. So the accuracy of this END-to-END prediction over one year period is about 2,5 %. The green chart is BTW predicting 33, so within 1,5% over 6 months.

Here You can see the shorter term part of the same chart ( red color) with comparison to actual silver spot prices over the year period. I would like to suggest what would have been stacker actions he/she would have followed the original red chart:

1) He/she would never had bought silver above 32,5 USD but waited until it falls below it-except if he wanted to make short term profit on the peaks and troughs in April and August-September by going long before the peak and short at or after the peak.

2) He/she would have bought like hell in October 2011 when closing price was in the range 30-32

3) He/she would have been happily surprised by drop in December -January 2012 and buying with all his money when price went even below 30 USD

4) He/she would have never fallen into traps of April , August-September, October -November and February 2012 excitement and would not have bought above 32,5 -sold may be to make profit and bough back later.

Of course, no one is able to believe in any chart so much, especially from an unknown source, but some reliance on it after it had proved quite accurate ( don't by above 32,5) would have helped after September crash.

But now the scary part comes to test the chart- the fast raise and drop in silver which according to original chart should start already on April 1st 2012, and reach peak by October 2012, OR, according to the same chart that was little bit tuned (green) in October 17th, 2011- slower and later ( from mid June 2012, with a real sharp rise starting mid September, double top November-December 2012).

From both charts, I would say start to believe its going to hit 60-70 in 2012 once its over 45-50 But there will be a crash again, so buying above 45-50 without intent to sell at the peak is not advisable.

Can't wait to see what will happen. I do not trade, but have bought some physical gold to test own charting. If I am as lucky as usual in financial matters, I will loose money. Hope that helps.

All my prediction charts are in one place here:

Mar 13, 2012 - 4:53pm


Yup. It's pretty nuts. Not only from a worker rights perspective, but from a national security one. China could cut the world off from PCs if it wanted to, and it would be YEARS before anyone else could get a manufacturing plant off the ground, at which point they would be five years behind the game.

And it's not just computers.

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Forum Discussion

by TexasTonto, 3 hours 26 min ago
by tork311, Jul 10, 2020 - 3:17pm