The Ides of March

147
Sun, Mar 11, 2012 - 4:36pm

Well, here we are. We've arrived at one of The Turd's favorite weeks of the year. Here in America, the third week of March means two things: Saint Patrick's Day and the beginning of the NCAA college basketball tournament. Turd is very excited. However, Turd is also nervous and agitated, too. To help me cope, I thought I'd cook up this quick post before the week gets started.

First of all, regarding the metals, everything looks great as we enter the week. The fundos continue to be profoundly positive. The CoTs took a dramatic turn toward a bullish sentiment. Even the charts looks great:

  1. Support held at roughly 1680 and 32.80.
  2. The FUBMs on Friday were very, very impressive.
  3. Gold even managed to close UP on the week.

The only thing WE DON'T KNOW is how the Greek CDS trigger will impact the market. Will it be almost a non-event or will liquidity "dominoes" begin falling, leading to a global margin call meltdown. At this particular time, I don't know. What I do know is this: I'm not selling any of my phyzz, not a single ounce, and I will simply use any extended weakness to add to my stack.

Here are your charts. They clearly show that we are on the edge of breaking back higher. Once this happens, the stage will be set for Battle Royale II.

One more thing, please take time to click the link below and read the article. The topic is something I plan to devote more energy toward in the coming weeks. The world is changing much faster than most folks (myself excluded) ever thought it could. You must be prepared for the consequences of these changes.

https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-10-10/why-china-dumping-dollar-and-why-you-should-read-weimar-republic

I hope you're rested and ready. This week sure has the potential to be a doozy. TF

About the Author

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  147 Comments

xaviercromartie
Mar 11, 2012 - 4:39pm
I Run Bartertown
Mar 11, 2012 - 4:41pm

Beware

the First

The China article is good. I still had some questions about just how much they need us buying their stuff. I've seen a range of numbers on that. I think they might be less impacted by losing us as a market than we might think.

ThoughtCriminal
Mar 11, 2012 - 4:41pm

Options Book?

Turd: What's a good options book to read for a guy to learn how to trade those babies?

zilverreiger
Mar 11, 2012 - 4:44pm

http://www.optiontradingtips.

https://www.optiontradingtips.com/options101/index.html

despite the explanations I find them too complex and risky, epsecially now you should be carefull when the market can tank any minute

zilverreiger
Mar 11, 2012 - 4:47pm

Timezone headsup

US went to DST, europe not, so US trading opens and hour earlier from a european perspective

exiledbear
Mar 11, 2012 - 5:04pm

(No subject)

Video unavailable
Santa's Elf
Mar 11, 2012 - 5:09pm

I share your enthusiasm Turd

St Patty's Day and March Madness... Sorry Andy, but this song wasn't meant to be sung at Christmas.

Andy Williams - It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year
cpnscarletSanta's Elf
Mar 11, 2012 - 5:20pm

@Santa's Elf - Not your

@Santa's Elf - Not your fault, but you managed to post the one song that I absolutely hate the most of anything musical out of the mind of man. It's the epitome of all that's wrong with the "Holiday" season. Argghhhh.. Wretch.. Splattttt..... Ughhhh.

Ircsum
Mar 11, 2012 - 5:27pm

Time to be cautious?

Thanks, TF. I see the majority of Bloomberg's 'analysts' are bullish for next week:

"Gold traders are the most bullish in four months after investors accumulated more metal than ever and hedge funds raised bets on gains to a five-month high.

Sixteen of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week and one was neutral, the highest proportion since Nov. 11. Investors increased their holdings in exchange- traded products backed by bullion for seven consecutive weeks and now hold 2,407 metric tons valued at $131 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/gold-bulls-strengthening-as-bu...

I get a little worried when the majority are bullish.....sucking in more sheep to be sheared?

Velocity
Mar 11, 2012 - 5:42pm

12th ...wouldn't want to be 13th, bad luck!

Thanks Mr T for a great (bullish) Sunday night read and pick-me-up :)

One thing that troubles me as much as the CDS trigger event (there's a 'black swan' event none of us thought the bent ISDA would ever admit to) is the stock indexes have been running on fumes for friggin months and due a collapse

(xaviercromartie a few posts above has the right idea with the Dow and Jaws chart:)

ie. i'm in schizoid two-minds at this point if we aren't due a big stock correction/collapse possibly next week which'll bring PM's down again!!

Anyone any guesses feel very welcome to throw your oar in . . .

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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