Ridden Hard and Put Away Wet

Fri, Mar 2, 2012 - 10:05am

I don't know about you, but I'm ready for this week to be over. The title of this thread refers to an old adage of the American West and it has to do with horses which, as you might know, need to be cooled and "walked" after a strenuous ride. Pretty well sums up how I feel. I need to be cooled and walked after this strenuous week. No time for that yet, though. We've still got to get through today's trade and, later on, I'll have some very important information for you.

Your main concern today should be the close of silver. The closing price will be quite important for the overall look of the chart heading into next week. Right now, the chart doesn't look too bad, as you can see below.


Note that, as of yesterday's close, this weeks "candle" was still white (on some charts this would be green).

  • Also, I should point out here what this chart shows. The "wick" or "tail" of the chart shows the true range of prices during the week. The shaded area is the difference between the Monday opening price and the Friday closing price. The chart is then colored white or green (positive) or blue or red (negative) based upon whether silver was UP or DOWN on the week.

So, again, as of last night, silver was still UP on the week and the candle was white (positive). You can see, though, that the price range has been nearly $4. What we don't want to see today (and what The Cartel does want to see) is a steep drop that will not only paint the candle blue, it could also drop the lower end of this week's range BELOW the lower end of last week's range. A technical analyst would call that a "bearish engulfing pattern" and it would most assuredly flip the WOPRs into a "sell-first" mode next week.

Last week's high in silver was 35.59, last week's low was 33.52 and it closed last Friday at 35.33. A close today above $35.33 and we can all be very pleased to have dodged a dangerous technical bullet. A close below $35.33 would not be great but, as long as today's trade doesn't drop below the lows of Wednesday, the resulting chart won't look too terrible. The thing to be concerned about is a close below $33.52. The Forces of Darkness would LOVE to see that happen but time is running short and, more importantly, buyers continue to appear when silver approaches $34. Let's just hope we survive this day and move on to next week.

As you can see below, the gold chart already has a nasty, blue candle on it and that is unlikely to change today. I'm also reprinting below a chart I added yesterday. At this point, we have to expect more selling next week and a move down toward 1600-1650 or so appears possible. I'm praying that that happens as I will be buying with both hands IF it gets there.


Lastly, if you're looking to kill some time this morning, you should click this link and watch the video that is contained within the story:


OK, that's all for now. I have to go prepare and record this week's podcast. PLEASE BE SURE TO CHECK BACK THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE RELEASE OF THIS VERY IMPORTANT PODCAST.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


The8thHabit · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:10am



Yes, Finally!!!!!! Now I feel like a true member of the Club! LOL

kingboo · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:10am

sshhhh......dont look now

but i'm first...........qwiet.

Eric King · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:10am


Third bitchez

kingboo · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:11am

missed by this much.......

life goes on....

OrangeAlert · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:15am


I had to...closest I've ever been.

I had just watched that JS Kim video this morning before leaving the house. Good stuff.

Dr G · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:23am

Close above 35.33 seems very

Close above 35.33 seems very unlikely, but I also think that a close below 33.52 is unlikely, so I guess we should be happy about that.

Then again, if we can hold our current range of 34.80-35, perhaps Globex will please us with some buying like it usually does on Friday afternoons and put us above 35.33. That would be stellar in many ways.

Turd, if silver closes above last week's lows (or what if it has a positive candle?), would that still portend selling of gold next week and a blah week for the yellow metal?

¤ · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:24am

Newspaper delivery

Looking forward to this afternoon's thread cool

Here ya' go...


· Mar 2, 2012 - 10:25am


Silver is beginning to trade on its own fundamentals. More on that later this afternoon.

For now, if silver can continue to hold above $34, it may trade sideways next week while gold trades lower.

¤ · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:32am

Foot moving slowly towards the metal pedal

They've decided to stop riding the austerity brakes.

QE/LTRO/Fed. Swap Line/ESM etc. to infinity...

EU Leaders Declare Shift to Growth


El Gordo · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:35am

Texas Independence Day

Today is Texas Independence Day, when Texas declared its independence from Mexico. I'm thinking the same situation may apply today, but from a different Capitol. I'm still seeking some way to consider this relevant to the discussion at hand, but so far I haven't been able to come up with anything other than "rugged individualism."

Dr G · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:35am

(sorry if it is a

(sorry if it is a repost)

Finally a somewhat decent MSM story about inflation. From CBS: "Inflation not as low as you think".

8% inflation, says the story, on many items we purchase each day.

Turd, thanks for the response. I appreciate it. Excited to hear what you have for us to ponder over the weekend.

¤ · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:36am

Encouraged by DXY

To see it shoot up overnight and gold/silver didn't react violently downwards. Good sign.

It could've been real ugly this a.m., which makes me wonder why it wasn't. H'mmm....


Jager06 · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:36am


I'm wondering if the Soros gang has the money and clout to be effectively running some of this COMEX manipulation...

My little theory being that if it perpetuates the ponzi, it also loads the spring for the rebound destruction when it all finally does fall apart. Thus making the destruction of the monetary system that much worse, they have that much more likely chance of imposing their idea of the new system on a frightened world of sheep, begging for a saviour from the very Fabian Socialist greedy bankster demons who created the destruction.

In short, they create the problem, already having their desired solution in hand.

That solution is so disgusting and contrary to the long term benefits of mankind, but beneficial to them, that they must do all they can ratchet the current system further into the red. That making the inevitable collapse the more horrid and increasing the odds that the sheep of the world will swallow their lie and follow their new two tier caste system. Us, and of course......Them.

I'll get another cup of coffee, and see if I can finish waking up before they announce that Mike Savage died of a heart attack while dining in his master suite sauna last night.....or maybe it will be Judge Napolitano? Or Joe Arpaio?

Strange times, these.

survivalwstyle · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:45am


sure lOOks to be the stop. the question now is that 33.50 going to hold? either way a trip to the LCS is in order. payday so grEEd says take it lower. we aLL know where this is going in the end.

fEEd the turd time tOO...is that sub coming anytime sOOn dOOd?

El Gordo · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:46am

In honor of Texas Independence Day

I'm proudly flying this flag off of Fort Ferguson right now.


"I'd rather cut off my right arm than live under tyranny!"


Dr G · Mar 2, 2012 - 10:53am

DPH, I was wondering the same

DPH, I was wondering the same thing. Big move by the POSX today.

lairdwd · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:03am

Cartel has left the building today

I just hope they give one more shot at 1705. I was snoozing the last go round and didn't have my order in. Turd - don't forget about happy Monday and super happy Tuesday. Cartel needs to start cleaning up that COT - especially with all the attention they brought upon themselves and prying eyes will be anxiously awaiting for more tell tale signs of traceable manipulation. 

I do see continued DXY pressure down to the 1.30 to 1.31 range. That's where it was forever, and the markets were in good equilibrium. I think that's where they are taking it down to now. 

opticsguy · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:07am

not a native Texan but the history of TX is relevant

Most of the early settlers, including the Crockett character, fled to the territory that became Texas to escape debt and debtor's prisons in the east. The distaste for bankers shaped the history and constitution. The "homestead exemption" and the ability to keep your house in bankruptcy stemmed from this. It may not be widely know, but home equity loans didn't exist in TX until about 10 years ago. If a bank couldn't take your house, why would you let someone lever up on it?

I have a HELOC, but you have to have a lot of equity to get any decent amount.

Silver2500 · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:12am
JimmyTheHand · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:15am


I didn't even know that it had been killed? I guess I missed that.

Turd, do you know of the new exchange that will be coming out instead of PAGE?

JimmyTheHand · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:16am

I wonder

I wonder... if these interests can kill PAGE, how can a new one come along that the interests can't kill?

JimmyTheHand · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:17am
Silver2500 · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:21am

PAGE is killed???? According

PAGE is killed???? According to Andrew Maguire, it apparently is. All the public exposure of the exchange got since the announcement caught the attention of the Cartel and it is in a great danger of indefinite delay or being canceled.

Can anybody confirm this? Turd??

Senseosensei · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:27am


Exit Page, new page in the makings....makes you wonder why the Chinese backed off in the first place. 

And i agree with the above posters, what makes things different, again, this time.

I want to see it into operation and giving the promised results, this time.

SRSrocco · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:30am


Scotia Capital just came out with their forecast for precious metals onward. They remain bullish on gold, but due to the increased supply of silver from 2011 onwards, they only see $35 an ounce for the next three years. According to Mineweb:

Scotia Capital tempers silver enthusiasm with $35/oz forecast over 3 yrs

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Friday , 02 Mar 2012

"We are bullish on the price of gold, but our enthusiasm for silver is tempered by the growing mine surplus and the need for industrial and investment demand to offset," declared Scotia Capital analysts Trover Turnbull and Craig Johnson.

...Nevertheless, Scotia Capital analysts say their biggest concern is increased mine silver supply that is driven by non-primary producers, such as base metals companies that secure silver as a by-product of mining copper, zinc or lead. "As these companies make development decisions, the silver price is often immaterial to their project economics, and thus new sources of silver can come onto the market regardless of the silver price environment."


I have also looked at Morgan Stanley's 5 year forecast for silver production (as well as most other metals). Forecasts for silver production are to average between 15-17% growth in the next five years. The grand metal analysts are also forecasting a much higher growth for global copper production to be 30% and higher. I find this simply amazing to say the least.

I have two articles coming out within the next month. I was waiting for KGHM POLSKA to come out with their silver production figures to add to my first article. Basically, my articles will discuss the huge problems facing the mining industry: Declining ore grades, peaking of global diesel production and the breakdown of global supply chains.

Scotia Capital's forecast for $35 silver for the next three years is based upon the assumption that EXPONENTIAL GROWTH WILL GO ON FOREVER. I have some very interesting charts and graphs showing the huge demand for diesel in the mining industry. One tid-bit these analysts do not recognize is the increased consumption of diesel in the lifespan of an OPEN-PIT MINE. As the open-pit mine ages, the farther down the mine these huge HAUL TRUCKS have to go to get the same amount of ore.

It is due to these increased distances and steeper grades that makes mining open pits more expensive per metric ton of metal ore mined each year. The lower the open pit goes, the more diesel is consumed each year while metal production remains virtually FLAT. Think about multiplying this by all the open-pit mines in the world and we see the problem the world is facing.

There is no way the world will be able to increase copper or silver production as much as these Metal Analysts are predicting in their forecasts. They have no clue about the energy situation and are making these forecasts based on THEORETICAL INCREASES OF GLOBAL OIL SUPPLIES.

The coming PARADIGM SHIFT IN SILVER will occur due to the disintegration of paper assets, the peak of global oil supplies and diesel production, and the stampede of millions of frantic investors to try and protect what wealth they have.

SCOTIA CAPITAL'S newest forecast gets an "F". I will make sure I include their analysis in my article.

Silver2500 · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:41am

I guess everyone is listening to this interview

This Andrew Maguire guy IS THE BOMB!!!!! But, I think he went too far on the detail of the new silver exchange. I hope it doesn't end up like PAGE.

Be Prepared · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:46am

Can't believe PAGE was killed

But Andrew was indicating they might be setting up another Exchange..... he stated that they will start with a Silver 90-day Contract. Of course, why wouldn't TPTB just kill this one as well? I hope, though, that they are able to get it up and make it a viable alternative.

¤ · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:46am

Blythe Masters/ JPMorgan...

JPMorgan trumped competitors in commodities

By Jonathan Leff and David Sheppard

NEW YORK - Blythe Masters, JPMorgan's head of commodities and one of the top female executives on Wall Street, has steered the bank's expanded franchise to record revenues in 2011, a more than threefold surge over the previous year.....


Dr G · Mar 2, 2012 - 11:49am

Maguire interview was

Maguire interview was excellent. Thanks for the heads-up. 

He says PAGE has been canceled and will not be opening, which is what I had expected from the beginning. If the Cartel can drop thousands of contracts into the market and naked short thousands of contracts, then why would they allow an exchange such as PAGE to even open up? They wouldn't, of course.

There will NEVER be fair market in the metals, until the system goes bye-bye. It simply will not happen. New exchange, old exchange, it doesn't matter.

EDIT: so is the PAGE not currently trading the gold contracts? https://www.panasiagoldexchange.com/

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Recent Comments

by abundance, Dec 10, 2018 - 11:53pm
by atarangi, Dec 10, 2018 - 11:48pm
by lakedweller2, Dec 10, 2018 - 9:39pm
by Turd Ferguson, Dec 10, 2018 - 9:24pm
by scoremore, Dec 10, 2018 - 9:11pm