Long and Strong

Tue, Feb 28, 2012 - 4:24pm

Wow! Has does that feel?!? Pretty nice to be on the plus side of a $2 move, isn't it?

After such an amazing day, I'll try to keep this brief. First of all, silver has clearly broken through the horizontal and diagonal resistance which I had thought would give it quite a fight. That silver was able to defeat those levels so easily should give you pause.


So, what the heck is going on here? Silver is up over 30% year-to-date and it just plowed through what-should-have-been significant resistance without missing a beat. Why? How? Are we simply being set up for another takedown of epic proportions? On the flip side, is it safe to jump on board here? How much farther can this go?

I have a sense that we may be entering a completely new paradigm in silver. I'm not ready to make any bold proclamations...yet...but, by later this week, you may begin to get a sense as to why I am so optimistic. Could silver back off tomorrow or Thursday? Of course it could. Normally, you would expect it to. The $36 level is so important that, at any other time, I would be almost certain that a $36 test-as-support would be coming. However, as we are seeing play out, this is not "any other time". If silver does pull back tomorrow or later this week, think if it as a gift. You should be buying all dips until further notice. Miners, etfs, phyzz...I don't care what you buy, just buy the dip (whenever there is one).


Though up nearly $20 at one point, didn't it feel like gold was being held in check all day? It did to me. So, what happens next. Provided silver stays strong, which I think it will, gold will rally. Tomorrow will likely be gold's day. The charts seem to confirm this, too. After breaking through very stout resistance at 1765 last week, gold has consolidated above that level. In fact, it has even tested 1765 as support twice. It made its first attempt at 1785-90 earlier today. I strongly suspect that gold will defeat 1790 either overnight tonight or tomorrow. I still expect resistance at 1800 but after:

  1. The way silver blew through $36 today and
  2. The way gold blew through 1765 last week

I would not be at all surprised if gold erupted through 1800 and began running directly toward the upper end of its trend channel, near 1850.


Look, you may think that I'm letting my emotions get the best of me. I'm certain that there will be comments made to this post that will urge caution and claim that I'm simply chasing momentum. Let me assure you that that is not the case. Use your eyes and your brain. Draw from your own, hard-earned experience. Silver has steadily moved from $28 to $37 in nine weeks. Is that the end or is this just the beginning. I'll try to answer that question in the days ahead. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


silver foil hat · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:25pm
Jdawg · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:28pm
· Feb 28, 2012 - 4:30pm

March silver OI

March12 OI fell to 7100 yesterday. Last year, 4500 March11s stood for delivery.

TeMpTeK · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:31pm

Still a shot for under $30

I was hoping to see the lower end of the trend before breaking out.. Any guesses if we will see under 30 again?

CBDooper · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:33pm

First Position Day


Do you have a take on today being First Position Day in Silver. Could it have been a short covering panic today?

· Feb 28, 2012 - 4:33pm

To avoid distraction,

I didn't include this in my comments. I'm linking it here because, clearly, it's a pretty big deal.


ReachWest · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:33pm

Something has Changed

That was certainly an interesting day! I do get the feeling as I cruise through the comments here on Turdvilles Main Street and through the rest of the PM blogosphere, that something has changed. There is momentum in the comments and the articles as well as the price of the metals. Perhaps it's all group-think.. but I'm guessing not. There are too many other events taking place in the economy and the geopolitical spectrum to simply shrug this off. I think Turd is right on the money.

Here is another Turdville focused cartoon newscast - today we talk briefly about Silver prices, and then touch on the $325 Million Wire transfer made hours before MF Global went down for the final count.

Silver Moves up over 4%, MF Global Wires Out 325 Million to Little JP Morgan in Final Hours
CBDooper · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:34pm

Definitely some short

Definitely some short covering involved but I suspect that, when the OI numbers are released tomorrow, you're going to see a rather substantial jump in total OI.

· Feb 28, 2012 - 4:34pm

Turd didn't miss this call...

@ Mikeyk23

I don't think Turd missed a call here. I've been sitting at my desk since May with silver stacked all around me wondering when it would start to recover. After some dashed hopes in August, and after realizing that it really didn't matter since the metals are my insurance policy and not my get-rich-quick scheme, I settled down. I play with my coins a bit each day and wait--waiting for a GSR of 30 to make a trade-in.

So I did not buy two days ago when Turd was being cautious, waiting for a smackdown that I might get an extra ounce or two. Alas? No. My stack just got more valuable, my resolve stronger, my mind more convinced that the house of cards will soon fall. And I'll be satisfied with that.

I really enjoy these days!

EBR Mod 0 · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:36pm


watch to see if the EE uses a death star attack late tonight .... like 3AM eastern or so..

Shnozberries · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:37pm

Taking all my strength to NOT

Taking all my strength to NOT chase this momentum. They've done this to me before. Time to implement the Costanza plan.

bernard · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:38pm

Blythe Masters is pooping razor blades

I was super long through March SLV options which I dumped at the close for a nice 200% return overnight.... god, who knows.. this is so ripe for a raid.. but if you look at the lease rates and the COT antics.... it's clear they have BLOWN THEIR DAMN LOAD doing everything to cap silver at these levels.... but everyone here, let us not forget the fundamental message... THAT WE ALL KNOW SILVER SHOULD BE ABOVE $50 now. It's silly.... in relation to how much fiat is out there.... there is NO SILVER for the world. I think I will be picking up a nice fat 100 oz JM bar today with my options winnings... thanks Blythe. I expect one last ditch attempt by Blythe et al. to sucker punch the bulls, perhaps with some margin increases? Who knows, but volume sure has been exploding... Turd you should point out the volume of the last week... last week 252,000 frront-month /SI were traded... that right there is 1.25 BILLION ounces... boooooya

-The Bernank


CompareSilverPrices.com - The Bernank is a conscientious objector to the Blythe Masters Reptillian Manipulation

Xeno · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:39pm

Miner Thoughts

(C&P from last thread)

Or is that "minor"? Anyway some are groussing that the miners aren't moving. Well the miners that I watch have all reached some resistance today but the indexes seem to just be starting a breakout in their midranges.

So who knows what will happen with the miners but I suspect a little bit more then a small pullback. Why? History.

Generally the metals move led by gold. Then silver follows. And then, finally, the miners run rampant for a bit. Gold has been strong this year in refusing to breakdown and silver has been strong playing catch-up. So it seems soon that the miners will giddy up but the metals may yet have to show that they're leading and are in indisputable control first.

Today's action in miners not withstanding.

(added thought)

Also there's a lot said about the hedge shorts on miners. I'm looking for them to get hit on Euro and maybe offset those loses by covering?

Silver is money · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:40pm

Wow! Has does that feel?!?

jimmy cliff - i can see clearly now

Full steam ahead Captain Turd! Proud to be accompanied on this silver journey with such high quality company. 

madcow Shnozberries · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:43pm

hahah i hear ya!  I am tryin

hahah i hear ya! I am tryin to not jump on board yet until i am sure its not gonna drop closer to 30$ again

GM Jenkins · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:47pm

"silver has clearly broken

"silver has clearly broken through the horizontal and diagonal resistance which I had thought would give it quite a fight."

Yes, but it looks like it will finish the day right at that diagonal resistance on the log chart and also on the linear chart of *closing* prices. So a pause seems imminent, and the big quesiton is will there be a correction through time (quite bullish as it will go through the diagonal) or a significant price correction, which would slow things down.

s2man · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:49pm

That feels good to me, Turd. 

That feels good to me, Turd. I got my bonus last Friday. I deliberated all weekend on whether to buy or not. My first thought was, "I'll buy the next dip". But my second thought was, "What if the next dip is only down to $40"? After watching silver go sideways all day, I headed to the LCS in the afternoon. I picked up $40 Face Value of 90% coins at a little below spot.

I just about wiped out his inventory. He said he'd been busy all day. All he had left when I was done were a few, very thin coins. No bullion. No 1oz rounds.

Sorry I haven't been around, lately. Work has picked up, and I can't surf the web all day like I did all winter. Sigh

Goodgarden · Feb 28, 2012 - 4:53pm

The miners appear to confirm

The mining stocks seems to confirm that this move could be strong one. It's been pointed out many times that moves in the metals often fail when the miners refuse to respond in similar fashion. The silver miner's ETF - SIL, is the only vehicle for buying a basket of silver producers and explorers and it serves as a good proxy for following the behavior of the shares. It's up 3.58% today, which seems to be very good in light of the fact that the shares of miners and explorers are shunned, mistrusted, shorted and abandoned. If the metal can gain traction, the shares eventually follow. but investors (including myself) have been so tortured by them that it will take some time to regain confidence. By the way, I like SIL a whole lot because it allows the buyer to pick up an entire basket of silver producers and explorers with a single click, minimal transaction fees and whole lot more liquidity that you'll find in the pink sheets.

Awesomeness · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:01pm


36 falls no raid, 37 no raid so far. I'd expect the EE to put a fight somewhere, could be as gold gets close to 1800. Could be tonight, tomorrow or Thursday. Also compare the fractal from last years run and this run so far. Very similar. I got to expect a pullback here, should be small and short as I think everybody will jump on it. After that I see us moving higher fast.

Dr G · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:03pm

Well put, Turd. I agree with

Well put, Turd. I agree with what you've written 100%. Especially urging people to buy. I stand by my personal call (which I know nobody cares about and they probably shouldn't) that we still see an amazing move in silver in the next 3 weeks that will dwarf today's 4.5% move.

For the past 10 days, I've never suspected a raid was imminent. Many here spent a week waiting for something that did not occur. Negative lease rates did not scare me or intimidate me or give me pause. It has become very clear (for reasons I am too stupid to fully understand) that the EE has lost a bit of control over silver at this point in time.

There are also many world events that are quickening the rise of commodities. Look at WTI moving up (although falling a bit today). I don't think we are far off from $110/bbl being the norm.

So going forward here, do NOT worry about a parsing of gains. Somebody has to take profits at some point. A raid will be a vertical drop on the charts and, as I like to say, will feel like a kick in the groin. Be happy about some consolidation as it will give you time to gather funds for purchasing.

2012 Silver is strong.

Dr G · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:07pm

@EBR mod o, doesn't matter

@EBR mod o, doesn't matter one bit. Let them bring it. The gold bug's best friend, Chairman Bernanke, is speaking tomorrow. Silver moved up 4.5% today. Silver had over a $2 range move today. Raid, schmaid. I don't give a F.

TruthPreeminent · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:09pm

@TeMpTek= Silver under 30

I think it is doubtful that we go under 30 again. Maybe this rides to 39.50 or so on this run, so they would have to smack it down an awful lot. Look, if you notice all the posts by Turd and others and me- all of us (I haven't posted much recently, though I did call the breakout at 3am this morning with silver at 35.64) ---- all of us will throw in a hedge after making a prediction. Point being that we are all aware and wary of a takedown at any time by the EE, and rightly so. But barring that, I think silver probably heads a little higher and then comes back to test Max-Q at 35.50 and if that holds that will be the first test passed. For me, the really exciting part will be when silver breaks 50, heads into the 65 range, gets clobbered and retraces back to 50 and 50 holds. THEN we will really be in business and it will be a great day for all of us. Who knows, maybe it will be this year sometime. Just my two cents. Take care and enjoy. As I mentioned this morning before the breakout, congrats to everyone in Turd Town for keeping the faith and continually stacking--enjoy and don't worry about smackdowns because the further away from 30 we get the better chance we won't see it again.

Edit: I forget to ask for some help with obtaining some more body bags for the silver shorts. Thanks for your help.

Hold over · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:11pm

My call is the bull will run

My call is the bull will run till Friday, The hedgies are smelling blood ,If silver so much as flinches upwards tommorrow , its going to be a feeding frenzy. The EE wont take em on directly all at once. They'll let it ride until they see an opportunity.They got run over a few times last year trying that. 

WakoMako · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:12pm

moving up

20th.I'm moving up guys, like gold and silver.hèhè.

Although something is really bothering me. Everyone talks about manipulation and beating down AU and AG price. When You look the charts, You see an even beating UP of these prices in a similar violent way? Am I wrong? Who is earning a lot of money by this? Someone?

Biochar · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:14pm

re: 15 trillion money laundering mystery @ bullionbulls

re: the article Turd posted on the previous thread...

tis why I posted this topic 33 weeks ago:


gold & silver should be trading much higher, not only because of decades of manipulated suppression and the global economic/financial fundamentals, but also because of massive hidden printing fraud

· Feb 28, 2012 - 5:18pm

For further clarification

Though I seem to have a talent at prognostication, whether silver goes up or down tomorrow is anyone's guess. I am convinced, however, that silver will be much, much higher in the near future. (This spring and later this year.)

You should be looking for dips to buy, not peaks to sell. 

opalboy · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:24pm

it does feel like

the coin is spinning faster at the bottom of the drain!

I have felt this way before, but can they keep this going much longer?


Be Prepared · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:24pm

The Longest Haul....

Let us rejoice in the movements of today and hope that it might represent a new foundational basis. It's important, though, to see "where we are at" for what it really is..... a long effing road with the end not even nearly in sight. This time is much different because the vestiges of the old American Empire are crumbling.

It's so very easy to think in terms of added fiat and think you've gained much. In some sense, you have gained.... but it is merely a momentary edge that if not used and placed wisely will produce little for you when the dominoes really start to fall. We have and will discuss how the rules are changing and how the game is being increasing stacked against the common person..... and it is stacked very much against. This period.... the calm before the storm... is a most unique time because it's so easy to think the storm will never really come. It's still sunny out and no rain has fallen, but the massacre rages and it building its powerful punch. When things go, it will come in first like a thief only taking trinkets that you may not even notice..... Then, in one fell swoop, you and I will be on our ass because...... because....... they, TPTB, want it to happen as such to ensure they ensnare as many as possible in the trap of complete serfdom.

​We, my friends, are on the longest haul of our lives and it will wear you down in ways that we can't even imagine. The fortitude needed to cross this Rubicon will be the measure of your worth. I remind you now because, as we drink our beers this evening, let us remember this skirmish was not a battle and the war hasn't even begun. Plan for Tomorrow, but Work your Plan Today.

Doc1800 opalboy · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:33pm


the WHITE METAL has had a big meal eating away at the price chart, but now it needs to sit back and digest. I think a little time of consolidation is in order- BUT to tell you the truth silver is the red headed girlfriend i used to have. She always OVER-REACTS in BOTH directions. Patience and Preparation

BagOfGold Be Prepared · Feb 28, 2012 - 5:36pm

Be Prepared says it best!...

TPTB don't want you to own physical gold & silver...let alone gold & silver miners!...Please don't get shaken out of your ever loving rubber tree...as that rubber tree may be the only sustenance you have!...Don't look at what happens EVERY day & react the way TPTB want you to...recognize it as noise &...

Desiderata by Max Ehrmann

Bag Of Gold

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Recent Comments

by mgilbert, 1 min 42 sec ago
by Angry Chef, 1 hour 20 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 1 hour 32 min ago
by Turd Ferguson, 2 hours 29 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 2 hours 9 min ago