Audacious Gold Manipulation

Mon, Feb 27, 2012 - 4:13pm

Look, we all know that gold and silver have been manipulated and suppressed for years. For traders and stackers, the ongoing manipulation has just become a simple fact of life. The suppression is so regular that it can be used as a sort solunar table for those only wishing to "hunt" at the optimal hour.

However, this regularity and predictability should gall you instead. At it's core, it is sheer lawlessness or, stated differently, an absolute indifference to the rule of law or the concept of free markets. In a "normal" course of events, one wouldn't dare attempt to manipulate a market for fear of being caught. This fear would undoubtedly cause someone attempting to manipulate a market to do so in darkness, so as to avoid detection and, ultimately, prosecution.

What are we to make, then, of blatant manipulation in broad daylight? The simplest answer, I believe, is that the manipulator has no fear of being caught. If the manipulator knows full well that he is acting on behalf of his sponsor and that his sponsor will never prosecute him, the manipulator will audaciously act in bright light and open spaces for he no longer has anything to fear. As an example, if you desire to rob a bank but fear the police and potential jail time, you might rob the bank late at night or over a long weekend. If, however, you have the police and the judge in your back pocket, you could just walk in during business hours and make off with the loot.

I point out all of this because of the two charts below. I posted the one on the left back on Friday afternoon. That The Cartel would "trim" price by $7, at 2:20 pm, two days in a row was audacious enough. However, you must also check out the chart on the right. Another $7 at exactly 2:20 pm today. Sickening.

Again, only a criminal with no fear of prosecution acts this brazenly and predictably.

So, what do we make of this. As a practical matter, the suppression has worked. Without three, consecutive days of $7 Globex raids, gold would be trading at $1790 instead of $1769. Every dollar counts, whether it's taken out on the Comex, the LBMA or the Globex. However, on the bright side, how close must we be to a breakout? If The Cartel feels so threatened that they have to resort to bald-faced Globex manipulation, how desperate must they be and how worried are they about gold moving to $1800+? This is The Battle Royale, everyone. Be prepared for more dirty tricks but do not be afraid. We are winning and they know it.

Gold found support overnight where where I'd hoped it would, namely 1765 or so. Now the question becomes will it hold that area overnight tonight? It's hard to say. I wouldn't be surprised by a dip to 1750 and, if it does, I'll be looking to add some.

Amazingly, silver remains stronger than mustard gas. The area between 35.15 and 35.30 looks like pretty good support but a concerted raid could drive price all the way down toward 34.50. If that were to happen, I'd be an aggressive buyer. The only concern is the continued drop in 1-month lease rates, which appear to have fallen today to -0.46%, though I haven't seen anything "official" yet. Again, these plunging lease rates in silver are not a 100%-certain indicator of impending doom. They are just a warning flag. Additionally, while silver traded down 21 cents on Friday, open interest actually expanded by 2,300 contracts. More EE naked shorting in an attempt to keep silver below the Battle Royale level of 35.50- 36.00? I think so. Also, the March12 OI only fell by 1200 contracts on Friday and entered today at 20,160. This left today, Tuesday and Wednesday as the final three trading days where longs could be persuaded to dump March for May. Can't wait to see the numbers tomorrow!

Here are two charts of questionable value. On the left is a daily POSX but, as you know, my Forex TA ability is dubious, at best. On the right is a 2-hour crude. My TA in crude is a little better but, in a market that is primarily being driven by geo-political events, TA is almost useless. That said, if you're looking to join the crude "party", a dip toward $106 might be your opportunity.

Lastly, I traded a few emails today with Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform. I thought I'd blown a little time writing up my Saturday missive but it turns out the Jim took it even farther. He worked all day Saturday and most of Sunday on his latest post. Again, Jim does this out of passion and a genuine desire to make a difference. I encourage you to support his efforts by heading directly to his site to read his latest blog as soon as you are finished here.

That's all for today. Keep an eye on things overnight and expect the usual 3:00 am London raid. Then, let's see what tomorrow brings ahead of the all-important, Wednesday LTRO expansion info. Keep the faith. TF

About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Feb 28, 2012 - 8:05pm
Feb 28, 2012 - 8:02pm

Couldn't resist to share this beauty with you all

This simply beautiful video has the power to uplift and expand you. Open your heart and mind to these sounds and visions and receive the gift that is being offered to you.


Feb 28, 2012 - 3:10pm

Friday Raid??? NOT!!!!

I contacted netdania in regards what has transpired and there were so many disagreements in regards this I decided to get to the bottom of it.

This is a reply from Netdania

Dear Bianca,

Thank you for contacting NetDania Technical Support.

Our data provider encountered an issue in that period, therefore we received

bad values in some periods. We are aware of this issue and are working

together with the data provider in finding a solution.

Kind Regards,

Izabela Mindak | Helpdesk Executive

P.S. Thanks Atlee for taking charge and really set things straight. I appreciate your experience and your explanation, why it couldn't have happened.

Feb 28, 2012 - 3:03pm

Spanish revolt brews as national economic rearmament begins i

Spanish revolt brews as national economic rearmament begins in Europe

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International business editor

Spain's new prime minister has looked into the abyss and recoiled.

Though he swept into office as an apostle of orthodoxy, Mariano Rajoy has since delved into Madrid’s ghastly accounts and concluded that it would be "suicidal" to try to slash the budget deficit from 8pc of GDP to 4.4pc of GDP this year, as demanded by Europe's fiscal Calvinists.

Such a policy would require a further €40bn or €50bn of cuts and accelerate the downward spiral already underway, beyond the 1.7pc contraction expected this year by the International Monetary Fund.

The unemployment rate would rise to well over 25pc with six million out of work by the end of the year, equivalent to 30pc under the old definition used in the last jobless crisis in the early 1990s.

A study by BBVA of 173 cases of fiscal squeezes in OECD countries over the last thirty years concluded that demands on Spain are almost unprecedented. They found only four such cases, and three were offset by devaluations. The fourth was Ireland in 2009. The country crashed into slump, culminating in a 54pc fall in Dublin house prices.

From The Telegraph...and the link is here.

Feb 28, 2012 - 2:58pm

Injecting Cash: Europe's Banks Are Addicted to ECB's Cheap Money

This story was posted on the German website the link is here

The European Central Bank will give European banks another massive round of emergency loans at bargain-basement rates on Tuesday, with financial institutions expected to borrow up to one trillion euros. The ECB is playing down the risks of providing so much cheap money, but critics say that banks have become too dependent on the flow of easy cash.

For Kleanthis Papadopoulos, chairman of Greece's TT Hellenic Postbank, the situation is not looking good. "I can't give any new credits," he admits soberly.

Although this financial lifeline has become essential for bankers like Papadopoulos, many of his colleagues in the industry see it as a sheer luxury: "We don't need it," says Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann. "We will only take part if it makes economic sense for us." And the ECB's offer is hard to refuse. After all, where else is it possible to borrow money so cheaply?

But when does an emergency become business as usual? And how big is the danger that Europe's banks will simply forget how to stand on their own two feet if they are continuously being propped up?

A very good question. This story was posted on the German website spiegel.deyesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for sharing it with us. It's well worth reading...and the link is here.

Feb 28, 2012 - 2:56pm

No Reprieve for Greece from Debtor’s Prison: James Turk

Greece remains in debtor’s prison. That horrible fate was confirmed this past week with the ‘group-sentencing’ handed down by Brussels’ eurocrats, Merkel, Sarkozy, the ECB and IMF, and most shameful of all, the Greek politicians who accepted the brazen ultimatum delivered to them.

One can only wonder what these politicians were thinking, and whose interests they were really serving. The €130 billion that is supposed to ‘help’ Greece barely does anything at all to revive the economic prospects for that beleaguered country. Other than some money that will trickle-down into economic activity by ensuring the ongoing payment of the €8,594 per month salary (plus additional perquisites) going to the members of the Greek parliament as well as some other odds-and-ends, the rest simply passes through Greek books into the hands of the reckless lenders who foolishly made too many loans in the first place. Once again, the bad loans made by irresponsible, reckless lenders are socialized.

If Greek politicians were really acting in the best interests of the Greek people, they would have taken the same path chosen by Iceland’s leaders – default.

A financial crisis engulfed both Iceland and Greece about the same time, but their progress since then has been completely different. While Greece wallows in a depression that worsens each year and carries an unmanageable debt burden too large to service even if its economy was growing, the BBC reports: “Iceland is safe to invest in again, according to Fitch, which has upgraded its credit rating three years after its economy spectacularly collapsed.”

There are of course notable differences between these two countries. Private companies and banks incurred much of the Icelandic debt, while the more troublesome burden in Greece is its sovereign debt. The most notable difference though is that Greece is part of the euro-zone, and therefore uses the euro. Thus, Iceland was in a better position to control its own destiny.

Iceland never joined the EU, nor ceded control of its currency or its economy to Brussels, Frankfurt and Washington, DC, the homes of the meddlesome autocrats that seek to impose their will on Greece. Nor did Iceland cede control of its government to its creditors or abandon democracy, which apparently is the outcome the German finance minister would like to impose on Greece, like already has happened in Italy. The government of unelected ‘technocrat’, Mario Monti, “doesn't include a single elected politician in its ranks.” So we should not be surprised by the desire to wrangle control of Greece away from the Greek people. If it already happened in Italy, why can’t it happen in Greece too?

We saw, for example, the indignant reactions of EU politicians when former Prime Minister Papandreou decided to hold a referendum to let the Greek people decide their future, as the Icelandic people did. President Sarkozy said that he was “dismayed” by Papandreou's decision to hold a referendum, while Luxembourg Prime Minister Juncker said that a referendum by the Greek people was something that he “could have done without”.

The link is here.

Feb 28, 2012 - 2:54pm

German minister tells Greece to exit eurozone

Germany's interior minister on Saturday came out strongly in favour of debt-stricken Greece leaving the eurozone, arguing that this would improve its chances of becoming competitive again.

"I do not mean that Greece should be kicked out of" the 17-nation eurozone, said Hans-Peter Friedrich in an interview with news magazine Der Spiegel, "but to create incentives for an exit that they cannot turn down."

"Outside European monetary union Greece's chances of regenerating itself and become competitive are definitely bigger than if it remained inside the eurozone," said Friedrich.

The link is here.

Feb 28, 2012 - 2:52pm

Why We Should Still Be Worried about a Double-Dip Recession

​Why We Should Still Be Worried about a Double-Dip Recession: Jim Rickards

The late summer and fall of 2011 was filled with fears of a double-dip recession in the United States coming hard on the heels of the 2007-2009 recession, frequently referred to as the Great Recession. With improved economic news lately including lower unemployment, lower initial claims, higher growth, and higher stock prices, this recession talk has died down. That's why Lakshman Achuthan, the highly respected head of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, caused a stir last week when he repeated his earlier claim that a recession later this year was almost inevitable despite the better news.

Economists dislike the concept of depression because it has no well-defined statistical meaning unlike recessions that are conventionally dated using well-understood criteria. They also dismiss the word "depression" because it's, well, too depressing. Economists like to think of themselves as master manipulators of fiscal and monetary policy levers fully capable of avoiding depressions by providing the right amount of "stimulus" at just the right time. They tend to look at a single case—the Great Depression of 1929 to 1940—and a single cause—tight money in 1928, and conclude that easy money is the way to ban depressions from the business cycle.

The Great Depression featured a double-dip of its own. Within the start and end dates of the Great Depression, there were two recessions, 1929 to 1933, and 1937 to 1938. In the Keynesian-Monetarist telling, the first of these was caused by tight money, the second was caused by a misguided effort by Franklin Delano Roosevelt to balance the budget. Hence economists added fiscal deficits to their tool kit along with easy money as the all-purpose depression busters. Easy money and big deficits are said to cure all ills. President Obama and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke are following this script to a "T".

The link is here.

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Feb 28, 2012 - 2:46pm

Metals Prices Rise on ECB LTRO Hopes, Crude Oil Underperforms

Metals are on the upswing in European trade amid a recovery in risk appetite. Optimism appears driven by hopeful expectation ahead of the outcome of the second 3-year ECB long-term refinancing operation (LTRO).Median forecasts call for a take-up of €470 billion this time around after a €489 billion outing in December, an outcome is likely to downgrade the threat of a Eurozone-driven credit crunch in the eyes of investors. This is translating into a relatively more benign economic growth outlook, boosting cycle-sensitive copper prices. The move is also putting downward pressure on the safe-haven US Dollar, offering a de-facto lift to gold andsilver.

Looking ahead, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly higher and the final LTRO outcome is not due until tomorrow, hinting the upswing is likely to continue as Wall Street comes online. The US economic calendar likewise appears supportive. While Durable Goods Orders are expected to decline in January, the timelier February readings for Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity index areforecast to show improvement, with the latter hitting an 11-month high.

Interestingly, crude oil is failing to capitalize on investors’ rosy disposition, with the WTI contract slightly lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street. Weakness appears corrective, with prices digesting overdone positioning after three consecutive weeks of gains. Prices soared to a nine-month high on the back of escalating tensions between Iran and Western powers that threatened to disrupt the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. The Strait accounts for close to 40 percent of global seaborne crude supply. Data from the CFTC showed that speculative net-long crude oil positioning hit the highest since May last week.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $108.56 // -1.21 // -1.10%

Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at 110.04, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension, hinting a move lower may be ahead. A break below initial support at 106.70, the 50% Fib extension, exposes the 38.2% level at 103.34. Alternatively, renewed bullish momentum that produces a daily close above resistance exposes the 76.4%Fib at 114.25.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1767.68 // -4.77 // -0.27%

Prices completed a bearish Three Outside Down candlestick pattern below resistance at the 1800/oz figure, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level. Initial support lines up at 1763.00, the confluence of former resistance at the December 2 high and the 23.6% Fib. A break below this barrier exposes 1705.34. Alternatively, abounce that sees prices issue a daily close above 1800.00 exposes the 50% extension at 1825.68.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $35.39 // -0.01 // -0.02%

Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 35.66, the October 28 swing high reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level, hinting a pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 34.37, the February 2 top. Alternatively, a daily close above resistance exposes 36.99, the August 9 low bolstered by the 50% extension.”

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.890 // +0.020 // +0.52%

Prices are testing above resistance at 3.909, with a break higher exposing the February 9 high at 3.988. This level doubles as the top of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, with a daily close above it needed to neutralize otherwise bearish hues in overall positioning. Near-term support remains at 3.789 for now.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

Feb 28, 2012 - 2:43pm

FOREX: Dollar, Yen Sold as Risk Appetite Firms on ECB LTRO Hopes

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen declined against most of their leading counterparts in overnight as Asian stocks rose, sapping demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. Risk appetite is on the upswing as traders look ahead to the outcome of the second 3-year ECB long-term refinancing operation (LTRO). Median forecasts call for a take-up of €470 billion this time around after a €489 billion outing in December. As discussed in detail in our weekly fundamental trends monitor, such an outcome is likely to downgrade the threat of a Eurozone-driven credit crunch in the eyes of investors, boosting market-wide sentiment. The final LTRO results are due to be announced tomorrow.

S&P 500 stock index futures are trading higher in early European trade, hinting the risk-on mood is likely to continue to boost risk-linked currencies against the greenback and the Yen. On the data front, the focus is on February’s preliminary German Consumer Price Index reading. Expectations suggest the annual inflation rate will remain unchanged at 2.1 percent for the third consecutive month, a likely neutral outcome for the Euro. Indeed, priced-in expectations already call for a flat ECB outlook in the coming 12 months, so confirmation of the status quo is unlikely to mean much for the single currency particularly as LTRO preoccupies traders’ attention.

Asia Session: What Happened









Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JAN)






Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)






Large Retailers' Sales (JAN)



-0.3% (R-)



Small Business Confidence (FEB)




Euro Session: What to Expect









German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAR)






UBS Consumption Indicator (JAN)






Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (FEB)






Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (FEB F)






Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (FEB)






Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (FEB)






Euro-Zone Services Confidence (FEB)






CBI Reported Sales (FEB)






German CPI (MoM) (FEB P)






German CPI (YoY) (FEB P)






German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB P)






German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB P)




Critical Levels










--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

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