Even More Charts

Tue, Feb 21, 2012 - 3:43pm

No sense dillydallying. Let's get right to it.

Let's start off-topic a bit; I just have to give you an updated ES chart. Again, the ES is the mini S&P 500 futures contract. It is the functional equivalent of stock trading for maniacal futures traders, such as myself. What is so comical (and sickening) about this chart is the consistency of it. Not only does the chart continue rising at a perfect 45-degree angle, there are so very few DOWN days. In fact, there's a stretch of days in early January where the ES rose 14 out if 15 days! This is a nearly impossible occurrence in a non-manipulated market. Then, after 4 consecutive down days in late January, the ES has risen 10 out of 14 trading days this month.

But I'll admit...maybe I'm just crazy. Maybe the stock market is completely free and fair and prices are rising because of such fundamental things as actual earnings and projected earnings. If that's the case, we must be in a low-inflation, happy-consumer, increasing-margin Wonderland! Uhhhhhhh, maybe not. See below:

The obvious question regarding the metals is now: What happens next? Today's open interest numbers (basis Friday) look OK and the 1-month silver lease rate I'm so worried about has backed off to -0.35%. Let's see what happens in the next 24-48 hours. Will gold fail again at 1760-65? Will silver fail again at 34.40?

Since there was an absence of coordinated, Cartel raids today, we have to expect a beatdown overnight, likely beginning at the appointed hour of 3:00 am EST when London opens. Whether or not we get a solid FULBMA on the Comex tomorrow will go a long way toward determining whether or not this present attempt to overtake 1750 and 34 will be successful. And I hope we are successful. Frankly, I'm sick and tired of fighting this preliminary battle. (I suppose that that is exactly how the Cartels want me to feel.) 1750 and 34 are just the warmups. They are the PM equivalents of August, NFL exhibition football. The real battles begin when gold reaches 1800 and silver reaches 35.50. These are The Battles Royale. Beyond those levels lay new alltime highs in gold and $40+ silver, therefore, they will be vigorously defended.

That's it. That's all I've got. I hope that all of you were richly rewarded by the action in the metals today and that my current obsession with the CoT and lease rates didn't keep you from participating. Personally, I had an order in on Friday to buy an April $1750 gold call at 23. It only fell to 24 and I never got filled. Rats. I haven't had the time nor inclination to check the price today to see how much fiat I didn't make. Oh well, whaddayagonnado? Have a great overnight and let's see where everything goes tomorrow.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 21, 2012 - 3:46pm

Suck it

Not on this post, kids.

Feb 21, 2012 - 3:49pm

1760 gold Already

3000 Gold is when the mania comes. this is just the warm up

Feb 21, 2012 - 3:51pm


We just about to hit it....

Feb 21, 2012 - 3:51pm

Number 2!

If I can't be first, I will have to settle for #2!

Waiting, waiting, waiting.

Will we see those December sale prices again? Waiting, waiting.

Feb 21, 2012 - 3:53pm
enkidu Bsong
Feb 21, 2012 - 3:54pm


Can't wait to watch newsnight now :)

Be Prepared
Feb 21, 2012 - 4:09pm

The Greek Gods aren't Happy!

No one is visiting Mt. Olympus.... and bringing them offerings of gold & silver.

I'm sorry I meant the New Gods of Greece!

Feb 21, 2012 - 4:12pm
Feb 21, 2012 - 4:14pm

Still on the sidelines, waiting for $31 silver...

I admit to getting caught up in the mania last year, and failed to listen to the 400lb gorilla of technical analysis (Louise Yamada) who said gold would correct back down into the $1500's... so after dropping down to $1725 from it's high of $1920, I bought with both hands...

While it was far from a fatal mistake, I bought a bunch of silver at the same time, and I'm still recovering from that mess.

So my new year's resolution is: "patience, young padawan". I can't see buying anymore gold with the GSR above 50, and I can't stomach buying Silver above $31 anymore, just to watch all the numbers turn red for weeks (or months) shortly thereafter.

2 things are in my favor, though:

1. I stack, I don't trade. Even that $44 per ounce bar I bought in August will gleam with value when the system implodes. In the long run, those "expensive" purchases will look rather cheap, I just have to keep emotions in check in the meantime.

2. Since my experience last year, my emotions are firmly in the stable space. I KNOW there will be large corrections, and I'm holding back fiat until they arrive. I stacked a bit of silver during the lows of December and January. That has helped make up for a lot of the emotional baggage left over from September.

I have resolved to stack only on major corrections in the future (unless we get a really compelling spike down, like silver below $31). Until then, I'll risk what little fiat I accumulate (risk as in, let sit in the bank) in the hopes of lower prices.

My wife looks at me funny every time I look at a silver chart and mention how I hope the price will soon drop dramatically... I don't think she gets it yet...

Feb 21, 2012 - 4:14pm


This past Friday I saw a Bald Eagle for the first time at my BOL. I take that as a pretty great omen......

Feb 21, 2012 - 4:16pm

Re: Link

That's not the kind of news I like reading Turd...

Feb 21, 2012 - 4:20pm

Not a very convincing rally...

Once again, gold lagged platinum and palladium on a big RISK ON day. Volume did not seem convincing to me. What we had here was the simple fact there was little downside pressure in the way of the cartel. I get the feeling that the late push today was to paint the tape at 1760, so that chartists have something to oogle over.

Considering the artifical beatdown from Friday GLD/SLV opEx, the underperformance relative to the CCI and the DXY, the price is somewhere near where it "should" be. Risk/Reward isn't in as much of a favorable setup as it was entering today's action.

I am neutral and will wait and see what tomorrow brings. I closed out all my long trading positions, selling the final lot at the bell today. They can only goose the DXY so much with all the money printing going on in the EU, but they may have one more push to 1.33. Something's got to give, but we just don't seem to be there yet with Gold.

Be Prepared
Feb 21, 2012 - 4:21pm

Great Interview with Ranting Andy (Feb. 20th)

Interview with Andy Hoffman

Another point of view on the crazy week ahead....

Feb 21, 2012 - 4:23pm

and this is interesting

President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are scheduled to meet at the White House for talks on March 5. Netanyahu is also expected to address the annual AIPAC policy conference and hold other meetings with senior Congressional officials. The big question for Obama appears to be: When is Israel planning to hit Iran, and is there any way the White House can stop Netanyahu from launching preemptive air strikes? That is precisely the wrong question, however. The American President should be asking: How can the U.S. help Israel stop Iran without a full scale war, and if such a war is needed, how can we work together to win quickly and decisively and make the world safer?

Now comes a new challenge: senior Iranian officials are threatening to launch preemptive missile strikes against Israel anda wave of suicide bombing attacks the U.S. Yet the Obama administration continues to act as though Israel is the real problem, not Iran. “A senior Iranian military commander signaled the Islamic Republic might launch a pre-emptive strike against its ‘enemies’ if the nation’s leaders felt an attack on Iran was imminent, providing another example of ever-escalating tensions between Tehran and the West over its nuclear program,” reports the Associated Press. “In a clear shot across the bow, the deputy head of Iran’s armed forces, Mohammad Hejazi, told state media on Tuesday: ‘Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions,’ according to the Reuters news agency….American officials have pressed Israel in recent days to delay any strike on Iran, fearing the resulting instability in the region could outweigh an attempt to disable Iran’s nuclear facilities. The official news agency IRNA said the four-day air defense war games, dubbed ‘Sarallah,’ or ‘God’s Revenge,’ were taking place in the south of the country and involve anti-aircraft batteries, radar, and warplanes. The drill will be held over 73,000 square miles near the port of Bushehr, the site of Iran’s lone nuclear power plant. Iran has held multiple air, land, and sea maneuvers in recent months as the tensions increase.”


Feb 21, 2012 - 4:26pm

This, too, from Joel Rosenberg

The butchery of the Assad regime is horrifying to behold. More than 6,000 Syrians have been brutally murdered by the thugs in Damascus. The evil Assad government must be brought down and brought to justice, or face judgment.

Bible prophecy tells us in Isaiah 17:1-3 and Jeremiah 49:23-27 that Damascus will be destroyed as a city in the last days. Scripture doesn’t tell us exactly when or how this will happen, but I believe that day is steadily approaching.

Be Prepared
Feb 21, 2012 - 4:32pm

McCain decries 'daylight' between Israel, US over Iran

McCain decries 'daylight' between Israel, US over Iran By HERB KEINON02/21/2012 21:30

After meeting Netanyahu, US senator says there is tension between Washington and J'lem over the Iranian threat; McCaine takes issue with Gen. Dempsey's appraisal of Iran as rational.

By Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

Just hours after meeting Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, US Senator John McCain (R-AZ) said Tuesday there was "daylight" and "tension" between Jerusalem and Washingtonover the Iranian issue.

"There should be no daylight between America and Israel in our assessment of the [Iranian] threat," McCain said at a Jerusalem press conference. "Unfortunately there clearly is some." <Rest of the Article>
Feb 21, 2012 - 4:36pm
Titus Andronicus
Feb 21, 2012 - 4:40pm

Thanks, Turd.

Thanks, Turd.

Be Prepared
Feb 21, 2012 - 4:41pm

Iran may announce uranium enrichment at Fordow

Iran may announce uranium enrichment at Fordow: Report

Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:40PM A new report says Iran was expected to announce the official launch of uranium enrichment at Fordow nuclear facility when it unveiled nuclear achievements last week.

The announcement, however, did not happen and was postponed to another time, Iranian website Mashregh reported on Tuesday.

"Fordow nuclear facility is in a situation where its launch would be announced soon officially," the paper said.

Experts believe launching the facility before the new round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 (the US, UK, France, Russia, and China plus Germany) would have considerable effects on the negotiations.

The Fordow nuclear facility, Iran's second site for enriching uranium, is located in Qom Province, 160 kilometers (100 miles) south of Tehran. <Rest of the Article>
Bugzy TF
Feb 21, 2012 - 4:50pm

Good grief

Iran has been placed under siege. Much like castles of old.

If they really wanted to do a preemptive strike, do you really think they would tell anyone? No!

So what is going on?

1) Either it is Western rhetoric - much like the nuclear thing, in order to give the West an excuse to preempt the preemptors. And thus start a war, out of defense of course.

2) Iran is making threats in an act of self defense. You want to stop our oil? no problem, we will do it for you, today. You want to attack us? Back off or else.

If you want to punch someone in the face, you just do it. If you want to avoid a conflict, you explain just exactly how you will tear them a new one if they start anything. You do not warn your opponents first if you really want to take them down.

At least that is how it was where I grew up.

Feb 21, 2012 - 4:57pm

Use the Petro dollar...

Use the Petro dollar or else. Anyone or anything that gets in their way will be bombed, disappear or be picked up and jailed in some obscure Federal lock up and forgotten, it is how they hold onto the reins of power they have held since the Roman empire.

Feb 21, 2012 - 4:58pm

Thanks for the Charts

Thanks Turd. The seemingly un-ending upward slope of the S&P has me very nervous. Things will turn soon and I fear it will be violent. I continue to be bullish on Oil and specifically on Canadian oilsands crude - this geopolitical mess in MENA just keeps getting deeper and deeper.

And - yes - I believe the Cartel is happy to wear us all down - it's part of the plan - but it is certainly tiring and disgusting.

UPDATE: Edit to add this short Cartoon Newscast for today.

Greek Debt Situation is Solved - Gold & Silver Up - EU Dislikes Canadian Oil Sands
Feb 21, 2012 - 5:07pm
Feb 21, 2012 - 5:20pm

thanks Turd

Thanks for the charts Turd. Good ones all.

Feb 21, 2012 - 5:22pm

I am very happy for the Iran people

To make progress on their peaceful nuclear program!

Iran has a real advantage over the US: it doesn't have a history of throwing nukes at other parts of the world!

Feb 21, 2012 - 5:32pm

WOW... 26th.

watch out , you podium beasts, i'm moving up, just like Argentum and Aurum last week.

I think, we turds, have a happy smile on our face these days.

Thank You all for enrichning my knowledge and understanding of these matters.

Feb 21, 2012 - 5:42pm

my heart goes out to the iranian people

oppressed by the ruling religious fanatics who just last year shot them down in the street.

and who bring the world closer to war by repeatedly calling for the vaporization of tel aviv while on the road to producing nukes.

their idiocracy exemplified by the denial of the fact of the holocaust.

i hope for regime change in tehran, as do most of the iranian people.

oh, and in washington, also.

Feb 21, 2012 - 5:47pm

Tar sands

There's a reaon they are called "tar" sands and not oil sands. There are some good discussions on the Oil Drum. This stuff is essentially tar. It needs to be melted with steam to get it out of the ground (hence the 2:1 EROI). I read in the past that the gasoline and light HC yield is a half to a third of light crude. In other words, you will only get a fraction of the gasoline out of a barrel of the stuff.

The European refineries are used to sulfur-free Libyian and North Sea crude. They can't refine Canadian tar with out a large capital investment. We would have to do that for them.

Feb 21, 2012 - 5:48pm


SFSG ~ Welcome aboard!

Just checking in for the first time today and saw a couple other newbs on the previous thread. Welcome also.

Lots of catching up to do. Thanks for the threads TF.

Feb 21, 2012 - 5:50pm


Are you actually that much of a hater or are you just being sarcastic?

Please expand your thoughts for us. Did you just advocate for the annihlation of an entire country?


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