Odds. Ends. Out.

Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - 5:08pm

Just a few items as we wrap up Thursday and prepare for Friday.

First, I must chuckle and fart in the general direction of the Bullion Bank Cartel. As they arrived this morning, they thought they were going to put the hammer down today. The POSX was rallying and it was game on. As documented in the previous thread, from the opening bell The Cartel attacked...and attacked...and attacked. They soon ran into two, fundamental problems.

  1. The Pig suddenly reversed. (Do you see what I mean about Forex ripping you to shreds if you let it?)
  2. Over a thirty minute period, four stabs below 1710 were all met with plentiful buy orders.

Oh how The Forces of Darkness must be angry and confused this evening. This is not supposed to be how it works! Everything was set for a raid today. Gold would finally be taken back under 1705 and silver would be pushed below $33. OOOOoooops. As Coach Corso would say: "Not so fast, my friend". As quick as you can say "Sergey Aleynikov", the WOPRs flipped over to BUY from SELL and the metals charged back higher.

This all sets up a rather interesting day tomorrow. As you know, silver has painted red candles on the last two entries to the weekly charts and gold was red last week. Will they do so again this week? Silver needs to beat $33.58 tomorrow and gold's level is just $1723.

Adding to the intrigue is a big jump in OI yesterday. On a day where gold traded higher by about $10, total OI jumped by 7010 contracts, with 6,000 being added to the front-month April12. At 438,174, that's the highest total OI since 1/20/12, three days before the FOMC minutes that sparked gold over $60. Silver also saw it OI jump by almost 2000 contracts on a day where price rose just 6 cents. At 106,621, the total OI is now the highest it's been all year. Hmmmm. The silver picture is particularly interesting given that 1-month lease rates are again approaching -0.40% tonight. Caution is definitely still warranted.

Just for fun, here's a POSX chart that has lines drawn all over it like I'm some kind of actual, fancy-schmancy technician. It's probably useless but it's worth looking at, anyway.

Here are a few items I've picked up along the way today:

A solid chart summary from Trader Dan.


As if you needed more evidence that infinite QE is necessary and coming:


Gonzalo has written a timely, new piece:


You absolutely MUST READ this:


This is pretty solid from Denver Dave:


And this is certainly interesting, too:


That's it. Have a great overnight! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 16, 2012 - 5:11pm
Feb 16, 2012 - 5:12pm

Really First?

Back to lurking duties.

Silver Monkey
Feb 16, 2012 - 5:14pm

Bix Weir out with an interesting note

Just a quick note on something I noticed while glancing at the latest Bank Participation Report from the CFTC. As of February 7, 2012 there are now 4 US Banks that hold the silver short hot potato! https://www.cftc.gov/dea/bank/deaFeb12f.htm That's right. The number 4 now sits in front of the US Bank silver position. Previously there was no number as Ted Butler's brilliant research forced JP Morgan to demand that the CFTC change the reporting rules and remove the number if it was less than four banks. For for the past 3 years the number of banks on the Participation Report has been left blank until the latest report. The net short is now down to 20,840 contracts or 104M ounces but JP Morgan and friends have now spread out the manipulation between friends. Interestingly, if you divide this number by four you arrive in the vicinity of where the new position limits rule kicks in! Does this mean that we are on the threshold of the CFTC finally announcing that they have defined the word "SWAP" and we can start the 60 day window for the Implementation of Position Limits? I think so. Watch for an announcement coming from the CFTC after the March contract is closed out at the end of the month... and March is a silver delivery month :-) Exciting stuff these days in the silver world! May the Road you choose be the Right Road. Bix Weir www.RoadtoRoota.com

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:14pm

Guess who they are grooming

Guess who they are grooming for the world bank!( geithner is listed too)The next World Bank president: Bill Clinton? https://www.guardian.co.uk/world/richard-adams-blog/2012/feb/15/world-ba...

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:16pm

I give up...

Even the laws of nature are "not so" randomly rewarding the 1%

Same person wins the lottery....... again! WTF is wrong with reality!


Santa's Elf
Feb 16, 2012 - 5:16pm

2012 Gold

2012 Gold and Silver predictions compiled by RealMoneyTracker:

Expert/Institution Silver Gold Comment Source
Barclays 2000 During second quarter Watch
Ben Davies 50 1800 Silver: ”higher highs”. Gold: +15%(?) Listen
Bill Murphy 75 Listen
Chris Marchese 62,5 2435 Silver: 60-65. Gold: 2250-2600 Private conversation
Commerzbank 1900 Read (in Swedish)
David Morgan 60 2500 Gold: 2400-2600 Watch, Listen
Duet Commodities Fund 2500 Read
Egon von Greyerz 60 4000 Gold: 3000-5000 Read, Read
Eric Sprott 50 2000 Silver: Above 50. Gold: ”north of 2000” Read
Goldman Sachs 1940 Read
James Dines 1900 Gold: ”New highs” Listen
James Turk 70 2500 Gold: 2000-3000 Read, Watch, Listen
Jim Rickards 1900 For 2013-2014: 3000-5000 Read
Jim Sinclair 2000 ”1900-2100 or more” Read, Listen
John Embry 56 2500 Silver: +100%. Gold: +60% Read, Read, Read
John Hathaway 48 1900 ”New highs” Read
Keith Barron 50 2250 ”Gold: 2000-2500” Read
Michael Pento 2200 Watch
Morgan Stanley 2175 ”By 2013” Read
Nick Barisheff 2250 Listen
Peter Grandich 1900 “New highs” Read, Listen, Watch
Peter Schiff 2500 ”Above 2500” Read
Rick Rule 2200 Read
Rob McEwen 50 2000 ”Above 50 and 2000” Read
Stepen Leeb 80 2750 Silver: 60-100. Gold 2500-3000 Read, Read, Read, Read
UBS 2050 Gold: ”will average at 2050” Read
Average: 59,29 2242
Average gain in %: 112,36% 43,09%
2012-01-02 prices: 27,92 1566,8
Dr G
Feb 16, 2012 - 5:18pm

I just want to openly admit

I just want to openly admit that I might have a man-crush on the Turd. I can't remember ever reading anything financial related with a big Cheshire grin on my face. Yet, here I am, smiling as wide as I can.

Love the Pig chart with "lines drawn all over it".

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:21pm

Turd seems highly optimistic.

Turd seems highly optimistic. He shouldn't be. The market is controlled. It begins and ends where THEY want it, and it will continue to be that way until the industrial users realize there is no silver (or until the whistle is blown and someone actually listens).

Think what you want, though. So long as you stack the phyzz.

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:28pm

In the general direction of...

... the Bullion Bank Cartel.

I Fart In Your General Direction!

Thanks for the new thread and links.

garrylindsay tmosley
Feb 16, 2012 - 5:29pm

Or until mining->minting an oz worldwide average cost exceeds...

...the paper price! At which point its purely a commodity that would cease production as its no longer cost efficient!

I would love to actually have somebody calculate the average worldwide mining->minting cost for all the PM's

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:32pm

Iran False Flag?

Lookey here: https://www.newsmax.com/Headline/iran-alqaida-planning-attack/2012/02/16/id/429684?s=al&promo_code=E31A-1

I am not buying that there will be a terrorist attack as noted. I am, though, pointing out the increasing frequency of the news articles that themselves are announcing all sorts of bad Iranian intentions.

I HATE to be the chicken little, but, caution is warranted to at least pay attention to the headlines. One need not believe what is written; one need only pay attention to the headline and question WHY the headline appears.

In my line of work, proof of a fact may be direct, or indirect. Sometimes, the ABSENCE of facts proves point.

Where are any headlines from ANY source, pointing out that Iran is suffering from the US sanctions, and wants desperately to avoid a conflict with Israel or USA? Hmmm . . .

By the way Turd, sorry to hijack your thread Nice chart work, though. Thanks!

garrylindsay Santa's Elf
Feb 16, 2012 - 5:33pm

What were their predictions and average for each of the last 5..


See if we can find Nostradamus from the group, or if a group Nostradamus was close to reality?

garrylindsay California Lawyer
Feb 16, 2012 - 5:37pm

Ask yourself 2 simple questions

1. Do the Rothschilds/Owners of the Fed/ECB etc.... want Obama for 4 more years?

2. Does a false flag event hurt or hinder answer to number 1

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:56pm
Feb 16, 2012 - 6:00pm


Hello everyone. It has been over 10 days since I wrote a post here or anywhere on the internet. I have had my nose and brain stuck in research. Let me tell you, what I have found AIN'T PRETTY. My wife told me several years ago, I should get a hobby. I did... it was researching and now writing. It is a very cheap hobby. My father builds and flies those expensive Radio controlled model airplanes. Some of my other family members do other expensive hobbies, whereas I just waste it away on the internet.... only pennies a day.

Anyhow, the world is going to get a LIQUID ENERGY SUPPLY ENEMA of its life here shortly. Very few realize that actual AVAILABLE NET EXPORTS of oil (minus China & India), have already declined from their peak of roughly 38 mbd (million barrels a day) in 2005 to only 35 mbd in 2010. Available Net Exports are forecasted to decline to a staggering 16-18 mbd by 2020. This is about half.

Mining analysts still forecast higher and higher global output of metals of all kinds for the next decade. Here we can see that BRAIN DAMAGE is everywhere, not just in the Financial-Paper industry.


So far this year, the US Mint has sold 6.9 million silver eagles. In the first two months of 2011 the US Mint sold 9.6 million silver eagles. I do realize, that there will be more sales in Feb, but lets look at the numbers:

2011: First two months = 9.6 million silver eagles

2012: First 6 weeks = 6.9 million silver eagles


Again, we should have another 750,000-1,000,000 silver eagles for the rest of the month (maybe less). But even though this looks bad, GOLD EAGLE SALES are even worse:

2011: First two months = 226,000 gold eagle oz

2012: First 6 weeks = 142,000 gold eagle oz


So we can see that its ALL PRECIOUS METALS sales that are down. A great deal of investors are DUMB as a BOX OF ROCKS. There should be record volume of sales in both of these metals as the situation in the USA and World continues to disintegrate. If the country and world stumbles along this next year, we could actually see a decline on Gold and Silver Eagle sales due to the INEPTNESS of investors.

I believe sales of gold and silver eagles will only go exponential right at the end the system. And of course, this will be when it is TOO LATE. Precious Metal Analysts have no clue just how bad the situation will become in the liquids fuel market in the next several years. My fear is that a good percentage of JUNIOR MINING COMPANIES may become worthless due to the fact that both the supply of diesel (that runs the industry) and price will become prohibited for these mines to be commercial.

My gut tells me that if a METAL MINE is not commercial by 2015-2017, most will not become mines, but rather their low grade ore will stay firmly underground. I hope I am wrong about this.


Feb 16, 2012 - 6:08pm

I hate to ask folks but I

I hate to ask folks but I need really good vibes and prayers for tomorrow. Have a job interview. Thank you so much in advance!

Silver Monkey
Feb 16, 2012 - 6:09pm

@ CA Lawyer

I have read that Iran is experiencing hyper-inflation because of US policies. Do you contend that this is a lie?

Feb 16, 2012 - 6:09pm



Holy balls, I can join the club!

Edit* I used to be one of those people who always thought people who posted "first" were immature, annoying, etc. But for some reason, when I saw the opportunity to be ​that person, I couldn't resist the urge. ​Now I understand, turdites... it feels like I'm on top of the wooooorrrrrrrlllllddddd!

Ok I'm done now


Feb 16, 2012 - 6:13pm

Good luck Doc

Wishing you luck and any good vibes/prayers I can send your way.

Silver Monkey
Feb 16, 2012 - 6:16pm

Silver Monkey

I have read that as well, only more like an anecdote, not as a full news story. Also, the context of what I recall reading was that monetary sanctions was causing currency issues but this only was a precursor to pointing out that Iran's leaders did not have the interests of their people in the forefront.

In short, it reinforced the Iran's-Leader-Is-Crazy theme, rather than pointing out any facts from ANY source showing that Iran's citizens want peace just like we do.

That is all I am saying. I am not taking a position. I am just analyzing what information is being presented, and drawing conclusions by asking "Why did the article present that information, and not other information?"

Feb 16, 2012 - 6:21pm

@Silver Monkey Not sure but I

@Silver Monkey Not sure but I can tell you the US might have hyperinflation due to its own policies, so you never know!

Feb 16, 2012 - 6:31pm

GSE Addendum

At risk of beating a dead horse here but I want to make an addendum to the chart I posted earlier. As you can see Silver has definitely broken the green downtrend line vs gold just as it has done I hope it will soon do in the silver vs dollar chart. What's not to like?

In case you missed it the original post follows the chart...

Here is a chart of the GSR, flipped so we can see silver action properly expressed in terms of gold. Some features: first we have a significant low in silver vs gold in 2008. In terms of Fibonacci retrace levels we are are right at the overhead resistance level of 38.2%. We have just recovered from a full 50% retrace of last springs high. We have 2 tests of the 50% level and have rebounded from there. Also notice that the 50 day moving average looks like it has turned a corner and is now headed up while the 200 day is moving down. If you look back in time to about August 2010 you can see that silvers huge up move from then to last spring took place after the 50 crossed the 200.

I am no expert at TA but I would say that it would be very bullish for silver vs gold if silver were to break the fibo retrace level of 38.2% and even better if we get the 50 crossing the 200 SMA. Also we might look for a test of the 50 day line before going higher.

So is it time to swap gold for silver? I just did a little bit of that but am waiting for a breakout to go deeper in on silver.

Please add your comments and analysis. I would like to know what you guys think! Also I wanted to note that last spring when Silver hit 30 vs gold I traded the other way.

EDIT: One more comment. It seems significant to me that the trend line has just crossed the 50% retrace level. That should provide strong support at that level, no?

Feb 16, 2012 - 6:36pm

California Conference

Hey Turd and All,


From ' The California Resource Investment Conference...

Keynote speaker David Morgan?


A lot of solid facts and interesting thoughts...bullish stuff.


I recommend all you experts to view as i would like to know your thoughts... video is not a waste of time or rubbish...

Silver investment of the century...


Myths in the Silver Market: David Morgan at the California Resource Investment Conference





Can one of you fine Turdites please help me post the video properly so it looks more appealing to view... im too baked.




[Done, as requested. Mod. Jeff.]
Feb 16, 2012 - 6:52pm


just finished watching the video and honestly, this guy will make you go out and buy a 100oz of Silver...

Some Highlights...

  • The major monetary metal in history is Silver, not gold. Milton Friedman
  • Silver IS money- i will not back down from that argument
  • The Silver specie standard was widespread from the fall of the Byzantine Empire until the 19th century
  • The Chinese character for money is a building housing silver


In 52

5i5ty twoooo countries... the word for Money is Silver

In other words the word money (silver) is synonymous




Only in NORTH AMERICA have the hard money people been BRAINWASHED to think of silver as only industrial...


Fried(e)...good stuff

Feb 16, 2012 - 6:55pm


Never apologize for that- you are among friends here. May your path be illuminated, may doors open before you, and may you stride confidently through them to better things. All the very best, brother.

Feb 16, 2012 - 7:21pm

Interesting thoughts SRS. I

Interesting thoughts SRS. I have been wondering as to the run up in fuel prices especially. My job takes me overseas with little to no news/internet connectivity for months at a time. Therefore upon a return I am always more aware of the price shocks that everyone else experienced gradually. I was surprised to see gasoline at $3.40 a gallon (now $3.45) after being in the $3.20s for so long. I was thinking about how this may effect the election. It seems to me the administration is fully in control of managing the recovery facade in most areas, such as the unemployment numbers, extending unemployment benefits, payroll tax cuts, mortgage schemes, stock market pumping, and of course, free birth control for everyone! But gasoline prices, now those may be the Achilles heel for this flaming pile of V-shaped nonsense that is crammed down our throats through the media. How can they be controlled when war with Iran is already underway? Sanctions are an act of war, and if not convinced remember that the first thing Britain did after the skirmishes at Lexington and Concord were to close the port of Boston. Will voters tolerate $4 gasoline just because the president wants to install a Goldman-backed bank in Tehran?

It seems you have discovered some alarming trends in your research. As to research as a hobby, I applaud that direction over many other things you could be doing with your time. I have found this to be worthwhile as well. My education began the day I graduated and didn't have to worry about test scores and regurgitating the established theses of academia. I can probably learn more from the city library and youtube than I did in 22 years of federally-funded education. Just remember to get out once in a while, and my simple rule is any activity that wasn't mass-marketed to you is a good thing. Sometimes even a mass-marketed activity is fine too for your sanity, as long as you recognize the marketing beforehand and make a conscious decision to partake. This is the distinction of a well-rounded individual over a Real Housewives of Peoria drone.

Feb 16, 2012 - 7:29pm

Ron Paul: Gold Prices Could Hit $10,000 (Video)

Can't get the video to embed but here's the link

Presidential candidate and Congressman Ron Paul tells Alix Steel, of the Street, that a gold standard will become a reality when the current system fails and it’s in the process of failing.


Feb 16, 2012 - 7:44pm

Silver analyst Ted Butler had his mid-week commentary

"Let me confess one of my greatest fears about a potential future bubble in silver. If a silver bubble does develop, by definition large numbers of uninformed investors will join in the fray, eager to capture sure profits. The concerns for risk will be cast aside, as they are in any bubble. Undoubtedly, many of my former bullish arguments for buying silver will be trotted out as current reasons for buying even as price and risk grow. I doubt very much that I will be pounding the table to buy in a silver bubble and instead will probably be way too early in suggesting its sale. Yet new uniformed buyers will mistakenly view my past pronouncements as reasons to buy after a bubble is formed. The thought that I will inadvertently be responsible for damage to the latecomers is troubling."

"Of course, the risk to latecomers only grows deep into the bubble, should it form. The risk of a silver bubble bursting now is remote, because it hasn’t formed yet. Yes, there is always the risk of short term sell-offs for reasons related to manipulative activities on the COMEX, but those sell-offs should be viewed as buying opportunities as has been the case for the life of the silver bull market to date. In terms of a bubble-like collapse in silver prices, that risk will not exist until a bubble first forms."

"In the meantime, since a bubble has not yet formed in silver, what are the possible effects on the price should a silver bubble form? Certainly, I have not been particularly surprised by the 8 to 10 fold increase in price over the past 5 to 10 years. If anything, the price performance to date in silver, given all the facts, has been somewhat muted. Leaving out a possible bubble forming, it would not surprise me to see eventual long term silver prices at $100 or even $200. That’s without a bubble. If a silver bubble does form, it is hard for me not to imagine some multiple of those prices."

Reader Scott Pluschau, a frequent contributor to this column, sent me this short note yesterday..."Since you mentioned TA and equities the other day, Wednesday was a key reversal day in the Nasdaq 100 on a surge in volume...if you have any interest." I did...and his blog from yesterday is well worth a look. The chart is a standout...and the link ishere.

Feb 16, 2012 - 7:45pm

Eric Sprott - When Money Dies - Casey Research

Eric Sprott - When Money Dies - Casey Research
Feb 16, 2012 - 7:47pm

JPMorgan, HSBC Among Firms Accused

JPMorgan, HSBC Among Firms Accused by Informant Bank in Canada Libor Case

JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG and HSBC Holdings Plc are among at least seven firms accused by another bank of participating in a conspiracy to manipulate the price of derivatives worldwide for more than three years.

The unnamed bank, seeking immunity, told Canada’s Competition Bureau that traders and cash brokers conspired to influence the Yen London interbank offered rate from 2007 to 2010 to profit on interest-rate derivative positions linked to the benchmark. The bureau spelled out the probe in documents it filed with the Ontario Superior Court in May.

The documents, shown yesterday to Bloomberg News by court clerks, offer one of the most detailed accounts yet as watchdogs in Europe, Asia and the U.S. look into concerns that firms conspired to manipulate interest rates serving as benchmarks for trillions of dollars of financial products. Canada also is investigating Citigroup Inc., Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, ICAP Plc and RP Martin Holdings Ltd., the court documents show.

The link is here.


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

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