Gold Charts. Silver Charts. Too Many To Count.

Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - 10:33am

It's 10:00 a.m. EST and I'm just starting to type. What took so long, you ask? Frankly, I printed off way too many charts. This old Officejet is smokin'! After winnowing the list down to 9, I think I'm ready to get started.

As you might have expected, we're going to start again with The Pig and, again, this disclaimer:

  • I realize that, year-over-year, the Dollar Index is flat while the metals are up considerably. However, in the day-to-day trade, movements in the POSX are very significant. Why? Because the only market participants left post-MFG are The Cartels and The WOPRs. Everyone knows that weakness in the POSX causes WOPR to buy. However, strength in the POSX is even worse. WOPR sells and the Pig strength encourages The Cartel to punch the gas, too, giving POSX strength twice the impact as POSX weakness.
  • OK, that said, take a look at these charts. Pigatha has broken out of her pen and is rolling higher. Look for this to continue, probably all the way to 80.50 or even 81.

    The clear breakout of The Pig has inspired The Cartels to finally put on the full-court press that they've been itching to apply for the past couple of weeks. It was "on" this morning right at the opening bell, as you can see on the charts below. On the bright side, The Forces of Darkness must be somewhat discouraged by the FUBMs that are forming on the charts. The Pig has since dropped back some, too, which is serving to flip a few WOPRs back into the "buy" position. Regardless, do not be surprised if The Evil Ones soon throw a temper tantrum and attempt to soundly break support. Maybe they'll wait for the Globex or the overnight session. We'll see.

    So, taking all of this into consideration:

    1. What appears to be an ongoing bounce/rally in The Pig.
    2. The hard cap maintained by The Cartels for almost 3 weeks at $1750 and $34.
    3. The dramatically increased Cartel net short position of the past 2 CoT reports.
    4. A 1-month silver lease rate at -0.36%.
    5. The immediate hammering of the PMs right at the Comex opening bell today.

    We've got to expect more downside to come. Again, in the end, this is all perfectly fine. Gold rallied 15% from late December to late January. You would expect it to give about 1/3 of that back in a small "correction". This gives us a target near $1680. Silver rallied almost 30% over the same time period. A similar 1/3 giveback would take silver back to $31.50 or so. When either or both of those levels are reached, I'm buying with both hands.



    Just one reading assignment for you today. Please take time to read both of these discussions of MFingGlobal mess and the ongoing repercussions.

    OK, that's all for now. Keep a close eye on things today and don't get an itchy trigger finger. Patience.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:26am

    @TF et. al.

    Silver has moved up from $32.71 area. If it closes above $32.80, safe? If more downside to come, thoughts about shorting here?

    Dr G
    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:29am

    And now we are break even to

    And now we are break even to where we were in silver when the Crimex went crazy and opened with a waterfall.

    Silver Monkey
    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:30am

    An out for the Comex?

    From the Article lnked in our "homework:"

    A substantial portion of MF Global’s commodity clients cleared their transactions through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Comex, owned by CME Group (ticker: CME). The question now looming over CME’s stock is whether the company will be liable for customer losses, as the Commodity Customer Coalition, a group that says it represents some 8,000 investors—including many hedge funds–with exposure to MF Global are not going down without a fight.

    Ok - so if the Comex was really in trouble in regards to not having enough silver on hand to satisfy customers who stand for delivery, why wouldn't they use the MFG bankruptcy law suit as an "out" to declare bankruptcy themselves and close their doors? Is it because they would lose the ability to manipulate the metals and thus people would lose faith in the dollar as PM prices skyrocketed?

    If I'm thinking like an evil banker/kleptocrat, I could see this opportunity as ideal to dump all my PM shorts, go long, use this lawsuit as cover and end up on an island with hookers and blow along w/ Ruprecht!

    Desert Fox
    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:31am


    I just bought some more G+S!

    Prepare for Deathcon 3 price drop.

    Fr. Bill
    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:32am

    If we ~know~ Greece hard defaults on March 23, what then?

    Many (Jim Sinclair, others) claim that there will be NO Greek default, certainly not a "hard" one -- a default that everyone concedes is a default. QE to infinity is supposed to forestall this.

    Here's a contrarian opinion. Or, rather, a claim that a hard default on March 23 has been on the drawing boards since last month. If you read the "About" page on Ward's blog, you'll see his blogging/exposé credentials. Even more convincing are the events Ward lays out as corroborating evidence that such a plan -- to force a hard default -- has been quite literally in the works since the second week of January.

    Now, let's pretend Ward's claim is factually true, that after the close of business in Athens on March 23, there will be a hard default announced.

    What then? What impact on PMs? On silver? Anyone wanna prognosticate further on Ward's prognostication?

    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:32am


    Has anyone noticed that SLW is up today while silver is down. Is that decoupling from the paper market? I don't know, but it's sure interesting, the last two days i believe it's been up while silver down.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:35am

    Card Game

    To echo tmosley:

    What we now have is not a market. The only substantive players left are the manipulators. It's like a "card game" where two cheats are left playing and all the honest players have cashed out and left the table.

    In the end - who knows, how the game of cheaters will end up. I do know that the "laws of sound money" (Physical) will win out, as surely as the laws of nature.

    The jig will be up - sooner, than later.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:35am


    Turd said; " Regardless, do not be surprised if The Evil Ones soon throw a temper tantrum"

    May I suggest a new term that they can yell as they stomp their feet and turn red - FUEEYY

    Which is; FU Evil Empire - Yeah You

    Now I'm getting hungry for some chop fueeyy.

    ACM Be Prepared
    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:41am

    re: 99 Weeker Chart

    I am of the opinion the dramatic decrease in gasoline sales is probably a reflection of the "Lost Tribe" affecting sales. Those people who officially don't exist do, or did spend and are now unable to. Of course Obongo doesn't understand we need production which was driven out by the ultimate effects of closing the gold window in '71. Besides, production might cause pollution so we don't want that:-(

    Vote this fool out and please don't vote for anyone else who went to an Ivy League University. These last four Ivy League Presidents have really fixed our collective ass.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:41am

    Corzine on trial? Yea right.

    "Jon Corzine is not well-liked in Washington," one veteran republican operative told me over dinner tonight. "Don't be surprised if we see a high profile prosecution of Corzine by the US Attorney to prove Obama is distancing himself from the big banks."

    I won't be holding my breath.

    Subscribe or login to read all comments.


    Donate Shop

    Get Your Subscriber Benefits

    Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

    9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
    9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
    9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
    9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
    9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

    9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
    9/11 8:30 ET PPI
    9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
    9/12 8:30 ET CPI
    9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
    9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

    Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

    9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
    9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
    9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
    9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
    9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
    9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
    9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
    9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

    8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
    8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
    8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
    8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
    8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
    8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
    8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

    8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
    8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
    8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
    8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
    8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

    8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
    8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
    8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
    8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
    8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
    8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

    Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

    8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
    8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
    8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
    8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
    8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

    Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

    7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
    7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
    7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
    7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
    7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
    8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
    8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
    8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
    8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

    Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

    7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
    7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
    7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
    7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
    7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
    7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
    7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

    Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

    7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
    7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
    7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
    7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
    7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
    7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
    7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

    Recent Comments

    by Outback, 1 hour 8 min ago
    by Blackwatersailor, 1 hour 39 min ago
    by Montross515, 2 hours 28 min ago
    by AgstAger, 3 hours 7 min ago

    Forum Discussion