Gold Charts. Silver Charts. Too Many To Count.

Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - 10:33am

It's 10:00 a.m. EST and I'm just starting to type. What took so long, you ask? Frankly, I printed off way too many charts. This old Officejet is smokin'! After winnowing the list down to 9, I think I'm ready to get started.

As you might have expected, we're going to start again with The Pig and, again, this disclaimer:

  • I realize that, year-over-year, the Dollar Index is flat while the metals are up considerably. However, in the day-to-day trade, movements in the POSX are very significant. Why? Because the only market participants left post-MFG are The Cartels and The WOPRs. Everyone knows that weakness in the POSX causes WOPR to buy. However, strength in the POSX is even worse. WOPR sells and the Pig strength encourages The Cartel to punch the gas, too, giving POSX strength twice the impact as POSX weakness.
  • OK, that said, take a look at these charts. Pigatha has broken out of her pen and is rolling higher. Look for this to continue, probably all the way to 80.50 or even 81.

    The clear breakout of The Pig has inspired The Cartels to finally put on the full-court press that they've been itching to apply for the past couple of weeks. It was "on" this morning right at the opening bell, as you can see on the charts below. On the bright side, The Forces of Darkness must be somewhat discouraged by the FUBMs that are forming on the charts. The Pig has since dropped back some, too, which is serving to flip a few WOPRs back into the "buy" position. Regardless, do not be surprised if The Evil Ones soon throw a temper tantrum and attempt to soundly break support. Maybe they'll wait for the Globex or the overnight session. We'll see.

    So, taking all of this into consideration:

    1. What appears to be an ongoing bounce/rally in The Pig.
    2. The hard cap maintained by The Cartels for almost 3 weeks at $1750 and $34.
    3. The dramatically increased Cartel net short position of the past 2 CoT reports.
    4. A 1-month silver lease rate at -0.36%.
    5. The immediate hammering of the PMs right at the Comex opening bell today.

    We've got to expect more downside to come. Again, in the end, this is all perfectly fine. Gold rallied 15% from late December to late January. You would expect it to give about 1/3 of that back in a small "correction". This gives us a target near $1680. Silver rallied almost 30% over the same time period. A similar 1/3 giveback would take silver back to $31.50 or so. When either or both of those levels are reached, I'm buying with both hands.



    Just one reading assignment for you today. Please take time to read both of these discussions of MFingGlobal mess and the ongoing repercussions.

    OK, that's all for now. Keep a close eye on things today and don't get an itchy trigger finger. Patience.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:42am

    Foxenburg...hope this helps

    Hi foxen,

    CB do not want gold to rise too fast as it represents dissatisfaction/lack of faith in the current fiat system, thus they want to control the price to reflect an image of "stability" leasing the gold allows them to achieve this without being labeled as directly manipulating the market.

    For the bullion banks they can use this physical leveraged against paper shorts to help support there existing short potions and paint damage to the charts with large volume moves through averages (the December raid was a perfect example of this)

    1) CB benefit through appearance

    2)Bullion banks through profiting in the paper markets.

    3) miners get screwed.


    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:49am
    ACM GoldMania3000
    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:49am

    re: SLW

    SLW is a stock. It could go to 0 or to 1,000 regardless of the current silver price. Silver Wheaton deals in silver and finances some metal and mining businesses. It gets committments to buy silver at a low price in return for financing etc. I own a bit via a couple of miner etf's , many of which have it as one of their large holdings.

    Dr G
    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:55am

    Agreed to what ACM said.

    Agreed to what ACM said. Miners pull metals out of the ground but are also businesses, and as such have a multitude of factors that affect their prices.

    Somebody on the board of directors convicted of embezzlement? Stock goes down, even if the underlying metal has gained 20% that day.

    Mines closed down due to government concerns? Stock goes down.

    Pulled out less metal than they thought they would? Stock goes down.

    Stock market going down? Stock generally goes down.

    And if any of those above things aren't true but there is a rumor that they are? Stock goes down.

    On it goes.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:58am

    I guess I hit it right for a change

    I think the Mob has shot their load for today.. However we still have the 12PM hour of last resort to hit them, but the market is not conducive for that now.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 11:58am


    Inching closer.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:00pm
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:03pm

    The US PESO is dropping faster

    than an new bride's undies

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:04pm


    And tracking The EUR/USD to a tee I might add.

    Days like today show why EUR/USD is a better indicator of trend than POSX.

    Question is how high can EUR/USD rally today... 1.3175? Maybe $33.60 silver?

    Exbroker Dr G
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:04pm

    you forgot one

    Ubumer nationalizes the industry. Stocks go bankrupt as tree huggers surround mine enterence in a human human blockade.

    Groaner Groaner
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:09pm

    Notice how it put the breaks on at 33.40?

    just need a bit more of a push on silver

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:11pm

    Silver take down?

    $32.64? BM, is that the best you can do? For those who lived through May, this is nothing. I pass gas in your general direction.

    EE, the time for honoring yourselves will soon be coming to an end. The Keynesian experiment has failed and there is a growing number of people who realize it. The herd is stirring, soon to be awakened.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:17pm

    Miners, what is up?

    Especially AEM? Missed out on a play there. I guess now that the mine is written off, they can go forward creating boatloads of cash.

    This is a typical options expiration week for the miners. Check Option Pain's website on Monday. Look for the minimum pain point. Expect your mining stock to trade there for at least half a day this week.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:18pm


    Hello Turd....My only appeal for the PAID SUBSCRIBER SECTION would be to allow payments to be made via debit cards....i abhor

    credit cards..wouldn't "Credit Cards Only" fill the coffers of Evil Banksters??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:19pm

    Just a little humor...

    What I imagine is going on every time I am expecting a PM shipment:

    Stage Coach Chase
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:21pm

    Golden Lottery.......Are you kidding me :)

    Check out this news report...........

    $1million in gold coins rains down from the rafters as workers renovate vineyard building in Champagne

    Read more:

    Now that is a nice stack!

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:29pm


    Finally decided to figgure out how to insert a chart into posts so here it goes. Hope you can see something:

    EUR/USD with Silver overlay. 1Minute chart

    Next up is the 1 min for POSX with same silver overlay. You can tell that the chart above appears to be a better indicator of movements in the price of silver. I like using the POSX for longer term trending ie daily/weekly

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:29pm


    pardon the silly question..but can somebody explain this ET & CT in USA +Pre-Open Electronic Trading (Weekday)

    Product Name Pre-Open Electronic Trading (Sunday) Electronic Trading (Sunday) Pre-Open Electronic Trading (Weekday) Electronic Trading (Weekday) Open Outcry CME ClearPort
    Precious (COMEX)
    Gold Futures & Options 17:15 ET
    (16:15 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    17:45 ET
    (16:45 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    08:20-13:30 ET
    (07:20-12:30 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    Gold Volatility Index (VIX) 17:15 ET
    (16:15 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    17:45 ET
    (16:45 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    Gold TAS 17:18 ET
    (16:18 CT)
    18:00-13:30 ET
    (17:00-12:30 CT)
    17:48 ET
    (16:48 CT)
    18:00-13:30 ET
    (17:00-12:30 CT)
    08:20-13:30 ET
    (07:20-12:30 CT)
    18:00-13:30 ET
    (17:00-12:30 CT)
    E-micro Gold Futures 17:15 ET
    (16:15 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    17:45 ET
    (16:45 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    miNY Gold Futures 17:15 ET
    (16:15 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    17:45 ET
    (16:45 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    Silver Futures & Options 17:15 ET
    (16:15 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    17:45 ET
    (16:45 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    08:25-13:25 ET
    (07:25-12:25 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    E-Mini Silver Futures 17:15 ET
    (16:15 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    17:45 ET
    (16:45 CT)
    18:00-17:15 ET
    (17:00-16:15 CT)
    Eric Original
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:30pm


    Starting to look like a good old fashioned FUBM on the metals charts today.

    treefrog GoldMania3000
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:32pm


    not only is silver wheaton doing nicely in disregard of the silver price beatdown, the same pattern is evident with sandstorm gold which has a business plan quite like silver wheaties' byproduct streaming idea. are both of them showing a disconnect from the paper/comex failed price discovery mechanism?

    ilion bellyacre
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:40pm

    Gold / Silver break-out

    ArmadaMarkets traders are calling for a break out in gold and silver after gold retested the 1706.5 level today and couldn't break it. They see a gold spring rally ahead which could take us up to the 1900 level. I bought myself some paper silver today at 32.95 . Silver seems to be supported currently by the daily 25 EMA and after recent consolidation now coming to an end we should see it break towards the 35 level in couple of days.

    The Vet foxenburg
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:44pm

    foxenburg - All reasonable questions - I'll give my opinion

    I've read it but do not understand it.​Can someone please try and answer:

    1. What's in it for the central banks that would induce them to "give away" their gold for someone else to sell. It doesn't seem like the CBs get anything other than a promise to repay in return. Why?

    Most CB's hold some physical gold which is rarely valued in their books at current prices. Leasing it out cuts down their holding costs without reducing their capital because leased gold is carried on the books as if it is still in the vault. They DO NOT distinguish leased gold with actual physical because they assume it will always be returned. The lease rates may be positive or negative. That is because the rate is the difference between the LIBOR rate and the metal lease rate. LIBOR is the interbank lending rate for cash. If the silver or gold lease rate is a positive number it means metal leasing is at LIBOR plus the lease rate. If negative it means the rate is LIBOR minus the rate. IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE BANKS ARE PAYING PEOPLE TO TAKE METAL OFF THEIR HANDS! Because the metals are carried at far less than the current price in many cases, but lease rates are calculated on the current price, on a percentage basis lease income can be a very appreciable addition to the bank's income.

    2. What's in it for the miners who do the borrowing? If they just sell it on, surely they are just depressing the price of what they are mining. Which they've then got to do (mine) just to repay the gold they bought and sold so cheap. (At least this would make sense to me while mining shares do so badly!)

    Miners lease gold and sell it immediately for cash, confident that they will be able to replace the gold from future production. It is a common ploy for development stage companies as the lease rate is often much lower than interest would be on a straight forward commercial loan. Sure it may drop future prices a little but companies who do this usually need the cash now!

    3. The bullion banks - as middlemen - would appear to be just earning a middleman's commission. So, who is profiting from all this?

    That commission is quite reasonable. Nobody except banks can get LIBOR rates and if metal leasing is close to LIBOR as it often is, it becomes the cheapest money easily available for long terms. Leases are more commonly rolled over than they are repaid. The CBs don't need actual metal as long as the leased gold is shown as an asset on their books and the bullion banks are generally making a decent margin on the difference between the lease rate and what they can loan the proceeds out for when the metal is sold.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:49pm
    Dr G indosil
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:58pm

    @indosil, I'm not sure I

    @indosil, I'm not sure I follow your question, but I'm assuming you are in Europe somewhere and want to know how Eastern Time (ET) or Central Time (CT) in the US corresponds to your local time zone? Eastern time is the time zone that New York is in. Central time zone is the zone that Chicago is in. Of course, many other cities, both large and small, are in these zones. There are other zones in the US as well. Los Angeles (and all of California) is in Pacific time. When it is 4pm in NY it is 3pm in Chicago and 1pm in Los Angeles.

    You can use this link to see how ET and CT relate to GMT:

    I hope that helps you. I'm not sure what else to do!

    Exbroker indosil
    Feb 16, 2012 - 12:59pm

    Indosil ?

    Eastern Time and Central time........USA

    Feb 16, 2012 - 1:02pm

    Copper overlay

    Can one of the skillful Turdites put up a side by side or an overlay AG/copper?

    Maybe 1hr or 4hr?

    Feb 16, 2012 - 1:06pm

    I feel so much bettter right now, not until late 2012....

    Geithner: No debt limit hit until quite late '12

    We've reached the point where the can kicking is good news and a them.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 1:07pm

    Odds and ends

    Nice job, Alex.

    and here's something everyone should read

    Comex trading hours are: (EST)

    8:20 - 1:30 for gold

    8:25 - 1:25 for silver

    Option expiration for the March silver contract is next Thursday, the 23rd.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 1:08pm

    Feb 16, 2012 - 1:23pm


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