Gold Charts. Silver Charts. Too Many To Count.

119
Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - 10:33am

It's 10:00 a.m. EST and I'm just starting to type. What took so long, you ask? Frankly, I printed off way too many charts. This old Officejet is smokin'! After winnowing the list down to 9, I think I'm ready to get started.

As you might have expected, we're going to start again with The Pig and, again, this disclaimer:

  • I realize that, year-over-year, the Dollar Index is flat while the metals are up considerably. However, in the day-to-day trade, movements in the POSX are very significant. Why? Because the only market participants left post-MFG are The Cartels and The WOPRs. Everyone knows that weakness in the POSX causes WOPR to buy. However, strength in the POSX is even worse. WOPR sells and the Pig strength encourages The Cartel to punch the gas, too, giving POSX strength twice the impact as POSX weakness.
  • OK, that said, take a look at these charts. Pigatha has broken out of her pen and is rolling higher. Look for this to continue, probably all the way to 80.50 or even 81.

    The clear breakout of The Pig has inspired The Cartels to finally put on the full-court press that they've been itching to apply for the past couple of weeks. It was "on" this morning right at the opening bell, as you can see on the charts below. On the bright side, The Forces of Darkness must be somewhat discouraged by the FUBMs that are forming on the charts. The Pig has since dropped back some, too, which is serving to flip a few WOPRs back into the "buy" position. Regardless, do not be surprised if The Evil Ones soon throw a temper tantrum and attempt to soundly break support. Maybe they'll wait for the Globex or the overnight session. We'll see.

    So, taking all of this into consideration:

    1. What appears to be an ongoing bounce/rally in The Pig.
    2. The hard cap maintained by The Cartels for almost 3 weeks at $1750 and $34.
    3. The dramatically increased Cartel net short position of the past 2 CoT reports.
    4. A 1-month silver lease rate at -0.36%.
    5. The immediate hammering of the PMs right at the Comex opening bell today.

    We've got to expect more downside to come. Again, in the end, this is all perfectly fine. Gold rallied 15% from late December to late January. You would expect it to give about 1/3 of that back in a small "correction". This gives us a target near $1680. Silver rallied almost 30% over the same time period. A similar 1/3 giveback would take silver back to $31.50 or so. When either or both of those levels are reached, I'm buying with both hands.

    GOLD

    SILVER

    Just one reading assignment for you today. Please take time to read both of these discussions of MFingGlobal mess and the ongoing repercussions.

    https://us1.irabankratings.com/pub/IRAMain.asp

    https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/mf-global-wheres-cash-part-ii

    OK, that's all for now. Keep a close eye on things today and don't get an itchy trigger finger. Patience.

    TF

    About the Author

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    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

      119 Comments

      Refresh
    lairdwdTF
    Feb 16, 2012 - 5:15pm

    It is indeed -.35 on the 1 month

    Look at the libor and SIFO data directly. Forget that kitco page. I'm still seeing conflicting opinions on the significance of the lease rates. There are a lot of variables at play. Obviously, it has something to do with raids. We've seen that the last several days. The criminals have the liquidity to go futher in on the short side.

    Other opinions I've read is that if demand is strong and currency debasing, the significance isn't as important. Right now, I'm leaning towards the raid theory, as I've witnessed that first hand for sure.

    https://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=56&show=2012

    Santa's Elf
    Feb 16, 2012 - 5:12pm

    2012 List of Predictions

    Gold and silver predictions compiled by RealMoneyTracker:

    Expert/Institution Silver Gold Comment Source
    Barclays 2000 During second quarter Watch
    Ben Davies 50 1800 Silver: ”higher highs”. Gold: +15%(?) Listen
    Bill Murphy 75 Listen
    Chris Marchese 62,5 2435 Silver: 60-65. Gold: 2250-2600 Private conversation
    Commerzbank 1900 Read (in Swedish)
    David Morgan 60 2500 Gold: 2400-2600 Watch, Listen
    Duet Commodities Fund 2500 Read
    Egon von Greyerz 60 4000 Gold: 3000-5000 Read, Read
    Eric Sprott 50 2000 Silver: Above 50. Gold: ”north of 2000” Read
    Goldman Sachs 1940 Read
    James Dines 1900 Gold: ”New highs” Listen
    James Turk 70 2500 Gold: 2000-3000 Read, Watch, Listen
    Jim Rickards 1900 For 2013-2014: 3000-5000 Read
    Jim Sinclair 2000 ”1900-2100 or more” Read, Listen
    John Embry 56 2500 Silver: +100%. Gold: +60% Read, Read, Read
    John Hathaway 48 1900 ”New highs” Read
    Keith Barron 50 2250 ”Gold: 2000-2500” Read
    Michael Pento 2200 Watch
    Morgan Stanley 2175 ”By 2013” Read
    Nick Barisheff 2250 Listen
    Peter Grandich 1900 “New highs” Read, Listen, Watch
    Peter Schiff 2500 ”Above 2500” Read
    Rick Rule 2200 Read
    Rob McEwen 50 2000 ”Above 50 and 2000” Read
    Stepen Leeb 80 2750 Silver: 60-100. Gold 2500-3000 Read, Read, Read, Read
    UBS 2050 Gold: ”will average at 2050” Read
    Average: 59,29 2242
    Average gain in %: 112,36% 43,09%
    2012-01-02 prices: 27,92 1566,8
    securi_DSmiddywesson
    Feb 16, 2012 - 5:09pm

    Re: Smiddy

    First off let me state that I acknowledge you as one of the "generals" here on the site, and applaud all of the valuable information you provide to all of us

    My opinion on the current housing market is even though it hasn't bottomed as a whole, there are still properties out there that are considered steals, even at current prices. In the neighborhood I am looking at, the market is probably down around 30-50% from the peak of the bubble, but there are also a few foreclosed properties in the same neighborhood that are a fraction of the price from the peak, which is what I look for. Heck, there are some condos that rent out for 1400 a month for a 2 bed 2 bath that can be picked up for 75k or less. Granted, they don't pop up often, but they do, because I bought my first place in 2009 when it was at a similar price. I wouldn't care if the neighborhood corrected another 20%, because in my mind, I would still be way ahead... Assuming the neighborhood doesn't go to sh*t.

    I guess it really comes down to what has the better risk/reward scenario for your liking. I believe all of the points you made are not only valid, but will come true. With that being said, me and you both know the metals are manipulated, and we also know it will be a winning investment in the medium-long term, manipulated or not. That's just a fundamental fact. I just don't know if the risk/reward ratio is higher by buying a monster box of silver compared to a rental property for the cash flow. Granted I am young, so if I make a mistake I have a bigger margin of error since time is on my side. But there are a lot of variables in play, and I am just trying to figure out what would be the best option given the whole economic outlook.

    -_D

    recaptureamerica
    Feb 16, 2012 - 4:59pm

    Dr. G. You are correct.

    Dr. G. You are correct. There is also a huge shadow inventory of foreclosed houses and more coming

    garrylindsayCBDooper
    Feb 16, 2012 - 4:57pm

    Thats the "F_The_People" ANSI sort order collation!

    The fact that Paul is even on the screen was probably their mistake!

    tpbeta
    Feb 16, 2012 - 4:55pm

    Tpbeta: Greece will not be allowed to default

    Zerohedge is, in my humble opinion, correct on their analysis, but wrong on the eventual outcome. TPTB run the show still, and they simply will not let Greece default on their bonds. Period.

    If somehow Greece manages to pull this off, and default, basically pulling an Iceland, then I will be the first one to say I was wrong. But if Greece defaults, that means TPTB have lost control. That means war will break out imminently, and I do not want to see that.

    TPTB best case is a gradual erosion of debt over time, letting inflation steal from the middle class. This solution will work until it does not. And then there will be something different.

    Let us all hope and pray.

    Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

    7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
    7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
    7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
    7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
    7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
    7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

    garrylindsayTF
    Feb 16, 2012 - 4:53pm

    Let us know with a Turd Alert when it/if happens

    Oh er, a Turd Alert. my colonial British sense of humor just got the better of me!

    tpbetaDr G
    Feb 16, 2012 - 4:47pm

    Don't trust Zerohedge

    Too apocalyptic for the sake of it. They don't have a great track record of predicting Greece since the new year. They said the LTROs wouldn't work, but they did. They're certain Greece will default soon. Maybe they're right. I hope so.

    Torpedo Fish
    Feb 16, 2012 - 4:45pm
    Dr G
    Feb 16, 2012 - 4:36pm

    @tpbeta, thanks. Just read

    @tpbeta, thanks. Just read the story. Interesting. If I were funding a bailout, an escrow such as that would certainly be one of the stipulations I would have in place.

    It is worth noting, however, that the latest ZH story ("Next Steps for Greece") references the article you mention.

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    Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

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    7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
    7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

    Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

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    Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

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    Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

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    5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
    5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
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    Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

    5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
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    5/12 8:30 ET CPI
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    5/13 8:30 ET PPI
    5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
    5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
    5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
    5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
    5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
    5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
    5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

    Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

    5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
    5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
    5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
    5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
    5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
    5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
    5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
    5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

    Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

    4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
    4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
    4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
    4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
    4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
    4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
    4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
    5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
    5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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