Gold Charts. Silver Charts. Too Many To Count.

Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - 10:33am

It's 10:00 a.m. EST and I'm just starting to type. What took so long, you ask? Frankly, I printed off way too many charts. This old Officejet is smokin'! After winnowing the list down to 9, I think I'm ready to get started.

As you might have expected, we're going to start again with The Pig and, again, this disclaimer:

  • I realize that, year-over-year, the Dollar Index is flat while the metals are up considerably. However, in the day-to-day trade, movements in the POSX are very significant. Why? Because the only market participants left post-MFG are The Cartels and The WOPRs. Everyone knows that weakness in the POSX causes WOPR to buy. However, strength in the POSX is even worse. WOPR sells and the Pig strength encourages The Cartel to punch the gas, too, giving POSX strength twice the impact as POSX weakness.
  • OK, that said, take a look at these charts. Pigatha has broken out of her pen and is rolling higher. Look for this to continue, probably all the way to 80.50 or even 81.


    The clear breakout of The Pig has inspired The Cartels to finally put on the full-court press that they've been itching to apply for the past couple of weeks. It was "on" this morning right at the opening bell, as you can see on the charts below. On the bright side, The Forces of Darkness must be somewhat discouraged by the FUBMs that are forming on the charts. The Pig has since dropped back some, too, which is serving to flip a few WOPRs back into the "buy" position. Regardless, do not be surprised if The Evil Ones soon throw a temper tantrum and attempt to soundly break support. Maybe they'll wait for the Globex or the overnight session. We'll see.


    So, taking all of this into consideration:

    1. What appears to be an ongoing bounce/rally in The Pig.
    2. The hard cap maintained by The Cartels for almost 3 weeks at $1750 and $34.
    3. The dramatically increased Cartel net short position of the past 2 CoT reports.
    4. A 1-month silver lease rate at -0.36%.
    5. The immediate hammering of the PMs right at the Comex opening bell today.

    We've got to expect more downside to come. Again, in the end, this is all perfectly fine. Gold rallied 15% from late December to late January. You would expect it to give about 1/3 of that back in a small "correction". This gives us a target near $1680. Silver rallied almost 30% over the same time period. A similar 1/3 giveback would take silver back to $31.50 or so. When either or both of those levels are reached, I'm buying with both hands.






    Just one reading assignment for you today. Please take time to read both of these discussions of MFingGlobal mess and the ongoing repercussions.

    OK, that's all for now. Keep a close eye on things today and don't get an itchy trigger finger. Patience.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    bellyacre · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:35am



    Groaner · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:40am

    starting a nice little rally here

    markets looked dead until the phonie numbers came out.. hard for the crooks to keep the metals down with the US peso going down now

    tmosley · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:40am

    No money, no problem

    I don't think the Cartel is worried at all. I am of the opinion that they now have 100% control over the market. The only reason they aren't crashing it is because they want to keep up the APPEARANCE of a market.

    It looks like we remain on track for a flat month of unusual precision. Tmosley is looking forward to wearing two yellow hats, one on top of the other ;)

    Alex · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:41am


    Must admit the EE takedown today was masterful. Flat POSX (at top of channel) and EUR/USD flat.

    Force price down when it was obvious POSX was going to decline and Euro increase which otherwise would have been positive for metals. Probably would have seen us at $34+ again had there been no intervention. Instead, the dipping POSX will take us back to yestarday's trading range.

    Nice to see we clawed back to $33. Could we be lucky enough to see an ORD today?

    Dr G · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:42am

    Yay for bellyacre!

    Yay for bellyacre!

    Turd, thanks for the reminder about patience. I'm terrible with it. I'm trying to learn to trust the charts and your expertise, but half the time I don't know what I'm doing when it comes to trading. Still learning, but it's kinda fun.

    I didn't take advantage of the lows we had this morning to buy some more physical. I'll never have patience with that. Looks like a small FUBM is in place, but I would expect it to roll over and head back down south again.

    And how strange is it that the Cartel just can't get any traction going against gold?

    EDIT: I think tmosley below nailed it. They are in complete control and don't want it to go below 1700 at this point. Seems plausible.

    ¤ · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:42am

    Good morning

    Thanks for the update.

    I just heard something on TV about Russia and Iran doing some type of big wheat deal and using rubles for the transaction. The plot thickens as the USD is bypassed more and more.

    I'm looking for the rest of the story online.

    Be Prepared · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:44am

    The 99 Weeker Chart

    The Number of People eligible to receive Long Term Benefits is decreasing as they fall off the roles.... and you can get a sense of how the 99 Weeks has already started effecting people.... 

    ¤ · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:45am


    In agreement with Dr G above. yes

    Groaner · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:47am

    The crooks did a .50 bombing

    at the comex open.. in silver. they were probably hoping for more. I dont know how they can keep the metals down while the market is up.. They cant let the fraud stocks go down, ever..especially now.. its the only game left to fool the sheeple

    ¤ · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:50am

    Congress extends unemployment benefits

    US lawmakers reach agreement on payroll tax cut, jobless benefits

    Last Updated: 8:56 AM, February 16, 2012

    Read more:

    Be Prepared · Feb 16, 2012 - 10:54am

    Look at the Difference between Housing Starts vs. Completions

    Why in the world would we need more housing starts in an already saturated market? Makes complete sense to me.... 

    foxenburg · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:00am

    Turd's recommended read

    I'll try again. Yesterday Turd recommended the link pasted below: I've read it but do not understand it.​Can someone please try and answer:

    1. What's in it for the central banks that would induce them to "give away" their gold for someone else to sell. It doesn't seem like the CBs get anything other than a promise to repay in return. Why?

    2. What's in it for the miners who do the borrowing? If they just sell it on, surely they are just depressing the price of what they are mining. Which they've then got to do (mine) just to repay the gold they bought and sold so cheap. (At least this would make sense to me while mining shares do so badly!)

    3. The bullion banks - as middlemen - would appear to be just earning a middleman's commission. So, who is profiting from all this? 

    Any insight would be appreciated.

    "Since you just joined 14 minutes ago, you probably didn't see this on Monday:

    You should take time to read it"

    Talky Tina · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:10am

    options expiration tomorrow

    Hi all,

    To add to Turd's assessment, options expiration is also tomorrow. EE might try to beat down value before then.

    koan tmosley · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:11am

    It does seem all too easy for

    It does seem all too easy for them to contrive waterfalls when they want. But if they are in control, surely they would have broken the main trend line the last couple of times it was tested? (hope I'm not too early in the belief they can't!!)

    I'm presuming they're just minions and their sole purpose is to stop the canary in the mine from alerting the workers? If they're on their own and just looking to rinse and repeat then I suppose it's not in their interests to crush the bull?

    Talky Tina · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:12am

    options link...

    Sorry, here's a link for clarification.


    Groaner foxenburg · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:13am

    Ted knows his stuff

    However he should forget about ever seeing any sort of justice done now.. Its over.. The Kleptocracy is in full speed ahead steele mode.. There has been a huge money grab going on, and all those Liars, (politicans, the elite) know it..

    This system is toast...turn the lights out.. 

    Full anarchy coming to roost right here very very soon..

    Groaner · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:18am

    This is a must watch when you have the time

    Nader and Fine describing why Bush and Obama should be impeached.. and how we are 2 terrorist incidents from a POLICE STATE... Thats what is in the plan.. NO KIDDING>> and its all for your protection.. hahahaa.

    swampman · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:22am

    Gold buying in 2011

    According to the council, global demand for gold reached 4,067.1 tonnes last year, the highest tonnage since 1997, due in large part to a nearly 5% rise in investment demand, which hit a record 1,640.7 tonnes.

    In the final three months of 2011, China consumed 190.9 tonnes of gold, compared with India's 173.0 tonnes, ranking China top in terms of consumption.

    Total demand for gold in China in 2011 rose 20% to 769.8 tonnes, driven by jewelry and investment demand, compared with a 7% fall in demand in India to 933.4 tonnes as a result of volatile gold prices and a weak rupee.

    The WGC also reported that European demand for the precious metal rose by more than a quarter year-on-year to 374.8 tonnes in 2011, as investors turned to the metal as the region’s debt crisis lingered.

    According to the data, Germany and Switzerland were the main drivers of growth in demand in the region. 

    Central banks were avid buyers of gold, with 439.7 tonnes' worth of purchases in 2011, more metal than at any time since the end of the gold standard in 1971, compared with a modest 77 tonnes in 2010.

    The above found here:

    GoldMania3000 · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:23am

    BUying on the dips

    Seems like there's buying on these dips. Trader Dan indicated this as well on one of his blogs in recent days. I would assume a dip down to 1680 would be met with strong hands buying. The question is as more buyers are coming in how much can they keep pushing down. One day I have to think that this thing could go volatile on the upside? It seems to me, also, that if rickards, sinclair et all who are calling for $4500/5000 gold in the next few years this thing needs to get moving a little quicker? Unless we are just going to start to get bigger moves on the up next round up?

    artaud23 · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:26am

    The day will come...

    The day will come when the dollar rallies and gold rallies more. When that happens hold onto your stash and your big yellow hats cause it will be off to the races. Until then just keep stacking. My 2 silver pennies.

    Video unavailable
    MIDDIE · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:26am

    @TF et. al.

    Silver has moved up from $32.71 area. If it closes above $32.80, safe? If more downside to come, thoughts about shorting here?

    Dr G · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:29am

    And now we are break even to

    And now we are break even to where we were in silver when the Crimex went crazy and opened with a waterfall.

    Live 24 hours silver chart [ Kitco Inc. ]

    Silver Monkey · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:30am

    An out for the Comex?

    From the Article lnked in our "homework:"

    A substantial portion of MF Global’s commodity clients cleared their transactions through the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Comex, owned by CME Group (ticker: CME). The question now looming over CME’s stock is whether the company will be liable for customer losses, as the Commodity Customer Coalition, a group that says it represents some 8,000 investors—including many hedge funds–with exposure to MF Global are not going down without a fight.

    Ok - so if the Comex was really in trouble in regards to not having enough silver on hand to satisfy customers who stand for delivery, why wouldn't they use the MFG bankruptcy law suit as an "out" to declare bankruptcy themselves and close their doors? Is it because they would lose the ability to manipulate the metals and thus people would lose faith in the dollar as PM prices skyrocketed?

    If I'm thinking like an evil banker/kleptocrat, I could see this opportunity as ideal to dump all my PM shorts, go long, use this lawsuit as cover and end up on an island with hookers and blow along w/ Ruprecht!

    Desert Fox · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:31am


    I just bought some more G+S!

    Prepare for Deathcon 3 price drop. laugh

    Fr. Bill · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:32am

    If we ~know~ Greece hard defaults on March 23, what then?

    Many (Jim Sinclair, others) claim that there will be NO Greek default, certainly not a "hard" one -- a default that everyone concedes is a default. QE to infinity is supposed to forestall this.

    Here's a contrarian opinion. Or, rather, a claim that a hard default on March 23 has been on the drawing boards since last month. If you read the "About" page on Ward's blog, you'll see his blogging/exposé credentials. Even more convincing are the events Ward lays out as corroborating evidence that such a plan -- to force a hard default -- has been quite literally in the works since the second week of January.

    Now, let's pretend Ward's claim is factually true, that after the close of business in Athens on March 23, there will be a hard default announced.

    What then? What impact on PMs? On silver? Anyone wanna prognosticate further on Ward's prognostication?

    GoldMania3000 · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:32am


    Has anyone noticed that SLW is up today while silver is down. Is that decoupling from the paper market? I don't know, but it's sure interesting, the last two days i believe it's been up while silver down.

    ReachWest · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:35am

    Card Game

    To echo tmosley:

    What we now have is not a market. The only substantive players left are the manipulators. It's like a "card game" where two cheats are left playing and all the honest players have cashed out and left the table.

    In the end - who knows, how the game of cheaters will end up. I do know that the "laws of sound money" (Physical) will win out, as surely as the laws of nature.

    The jig will be up - sooner, than later.

    Xeno · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:35am


    Turd said; " Regardless, do not be surprised if The Evil Ones soon throw a temper tantrum"

    May I suggest a new term that they can yell as they stomp their feet and turn red - FUEEYY

    Which is; FU Evil Empire - Yeah You

    Now I'm getting hungry for some chop fueeyy.

    ACM Be Prepared · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:41am

    re: 99 Weeker Chart

    I am of the opinion the dramatic decrease in gasoline sales is probably a reflection of the "Lost Tribe" affecting sales. Those people who officially don't exist do, or did spend and are now unable to. Of course Obongo doesn't understand we need production which was driven out by the ultimate effects of closing the gold window in '71. Besides, production might cause pollution so we don't want that:-(

    Vote this fool out and please don't vote for anyone else who went to an Ivy League University. These last four Ivy League Presidents have really fixed our collective ass.

    Missiondweller · Feb 16, 2012 - 11:41am

    Corzine on trial? Yea right.

    "Jon Corzine is not well-liked in Washington," one veteran republican operative told me over dinner tonight. "Don't be surprised if we see a high profile prosecution of Corzine by the US Attorney to prove Obama is distancing himself from the big banks."

    I won't be holding my breath.

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