Gold Charts. Silver Charts. Too Many To Count.

Thu, Feb 16, 2012 - 10:33am

It's 10:00 a.m. EST and I'm just starting to type. What took so long, you ask? Frankly, I printed off way too many charts. This old Officejet is smokin'! After winnowing the list down to 9, I think I'm ready to get started.

As you might have expected, we're going to start again with The Pig and, again, this disclaimer:

  • I realize that, year-over-year, the Dollar Index is flat while the metals are up considerably. However, in the day-to-day trade, movements in the POSX are very significant. Why? Because the only market participants left post-MFG are The Cartels and The WOPRs. Everyone knows that weakness in the POSX causes WOPR to buy. However, strength in the POSX is even worse. WOPR sells and the Pig strength encourages The Cartel to punch the gas, too, giving POSX strength twice the impact as POSX weakness.
  • OK, that said, take a look at these charts. Pigatha has broken out of her pen and is rolling higher. Look for this to continue, probably all the way to 80.50 or even 81.

    The clear breakout of The Pig has inspired The Cartels to finally put on the full-court press that they've been itching to apply for the past couple of weeks. It was "on" this morning right at the opening bell, as you can see on the charts below. On the bright side, The Forces of Darkness must be somewhat discouraged by the FUBMs that are forming on the charts. The Pig has since dropped back some, too, which is serving to flip a few WOPRs back into the "buy" position. Regardless, do not be surprised if The Evil Ones soon throw a temper tantrum and attempt to soundly break support. Maybe they'll wait for the Globex or the overnight session. We'll see.

    So, taking all of this into consideration:

    1. What appears to be an ongoing bounce/rally in The Pig.
    2. The hard cap maintained by The Cartels for almost 3 weeks at $1750 and $34.
    3. The dramatically increased Cartel net short position of the past 2 CoT reports.
    4. A 1-month silver lease rate at -0.36%.
    5. The immediate hammering of the PMs right at the Comex opening bell today.

    We've got to expect more downside to come. Again, in the end, this is all perfectly fine. Gold rallied 15% from late December to late January. You would expect it to give about 1/3 of that back in a small "correction". This gives us a target near $1680. Silver rallied almost 30% over the same time period. A similar 1/3 giveback would take silver back to $31.50 or so. When either or both of those levels are reached, I'm buying with both hands.



    Just one reading assignment for you today. Please take time to read both of these discussions of MFingGlobal mess and the ongoing repercussions.

    OK, that's all for now. Keep a close eye on things today and don't get an itchy trigger finger. Patience.


    About the Author

    turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


    Feb 18, 2012 - 3:01pm

    smiddy - 6 acres???


    six acres is probably enough to do a nice bit of subsistence/survival gardening depending on the climate in that location. if the mcmansion's big enough, it has enough roof area that the roof gutter drains might be an irrigation asset.

    Swift Boat VetSmiddywesson
    Feb 17, 2012 - 8:24pm

    Smiddy or the usual winner?

    You amaze me with your many posts that seem to parallel my life/thoughts.

    This is just another gem of a match.


    Feb 17, 2012 - 9:35am


    LOL, you obviously know your subject. Those are the reasons I wouldn't buy now, but as I said, all real estate is local.

    That being said, the wife has her eyes on a McMansion w/6 acres going for about a third of what it was recently listed at and she's trying to wear me down. Who will win, me or the usual winner?

    Feb 16, 2012 - 6:37pm

    Dead Horse?

    At risk of beating a dead horse here but I want to make an addendum to the chart I posted earlier. As you can see Silver has definitely broken the green downtrend line vs gold just as it has done I hope it will soon do in the silver vs dollar chart. What's not to like?

    artaud23Swift Boat Vet
    Feb 16, 2012 - 6:06pm

    @ Swift Boat Vet

    Yeah, I actually managed to get my trade done at pretty much the top, though I didn't realize the magnitude of the correction (if you can call it that). Unfortunately I didn't make a huge trade like I should have, I just made a small play as I was only just starting to pay attention to the GSR. Next time I will make a bigger move, no doubt. At the time, I was still looking for the magic 15 GSR which is the historical level set by the British Empire. I will be less sanguine next time.

    PS I am talking about trading silver for gold here. Trading gold for silver I just did last week but was pretty far out for the 60 to 1 top we had in Dec.

    Swift Boat Vetartaud23
    Feb 16, 2012 - 5:42pm

    artaud23 ---- Great Info

    I completed my switch a few weeks ago, but missed absolute top by 2 oz / oz GSR. I was just getting ready to do the trade to increase gold holding at about 30/1 when the slaughter came. I couldn't decide if I should wait until 25/1 or not. Indecision to even begin was my downfall. I missed a nice move. Thanks for the effort.


    Feb 16, 2012 - 5:41pm

    Real Estate

    All these topics about real estate made me search the forums and you know what, there isn't a real estate forum!

    I'll see if I can pm Mod Jane so we can take the discussion there and not hi-jack metal posts. I know Cali lawyer would be a great contributor to that topic.


    Desert Fox
    Feb 16, 2012 - 5:37pm

    Housing should not be viewed

    Housing should not be viewed as a forward looking economic indicator.

    Business, revenue and employment numbers are much more relevant to understand future trends in housing.

    Housing is a rear-view indicator and can push an economy but it cannot jump start it. Real estate is always a local phenomenon.

    For the most part, stand back and let real estate settle and wait for demand to pick up. We're a ways from that in my estimation.

    Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

    Feb 16, 2012 - 5:24pm

    Housing Market

    Strange as it may seem the housing market in Burbank CA. is doing very well. Bank foreclosure homes are going for as much at 15% more than asking. Last one I tried to get had 7 other offers on the first day of the listing. Bank just replies back "submit your highest and best".

    Feb 16, 2012 - 5:15pm

    Real estate

    I had a girlfriend in 1990 that was renting a 1 bdr for $350/month. Her landlord wanted to sell it to me for $9000. Condos have a lot more down side.

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