Gold and Silver Update and New Format Questions

121
Wed, Feb 15, 2012 - 7:13pm

I hope you've enjoyed this new format today. In what was a trial run, with this post I will have begun seven new threads today for you to peruse and ponder. Five of the threads would be general, public threads in the new format. This note as well as the previous sticky would both be considered "subscriber" content. Again, please don't fear the coming subscription component of the site. I think you'll be quite pleasantly surprised at how affordable a monthly subscription will be and the added revenue will allow us to have a lot more fun. More on that soon. For now, let's update the charts.

The most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks while silver has traded as its inverse. Take a look at the chart below and you'll plainly see that Pigatha is attempting to burst from her pen. Will she succeed? Probably...but be cautious. Forex trading will rip you a new one with all of the headfakes and sudden reversals.

Gold and silver continue rangebound but appear to be ready to test their lower ends again. The Cartel seems content to press gold lower under the downsloping trendline I've drawn on the chart. Having failed to break above the trendline today, do not be surprised if gold retests the 1705-15 level very soon. Silver found buyers again above $33. Something tells me that if The Pig continues higher and gold continues lower, we'll soon get another opportunity to see if $33 can hold.

And here's a bonus chart for you. AAPL put a nasty looking Outside Reversal Day on its chart today. You can be certain that the momentum-chasing WOPRs will notice this tomorrow and AAPL will likely continue lower for a while. Remember that AAPL is about 25% of the overall NASDAQ, so, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. If stocks are headed lower while The Pig heads higher, you can imagine what will be happening to the PMs. Just sayin.

Lastly, I have some number for you to ponder and then please post your thoughts in the comments. For the CoT reporting week of 2/7 - 2/14, we saw the following:

Gold: Down $30 Silver: Down $0.81

April OI down 7,647 March OI down 9,208 while May OI up 7,549

Total OI down 4,897 Total OI down 1,136

Over the course of the reporting week, do you think that OI and price fell because specs were selling and closing contracts? Did OI fall because the specs sat tight while The Cartels sold more longs than covered shorts, driving price lower? Is there some other combination you can think of? We'll have some answers on Friday.

That's all for now. Have a great evening. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  121 Comments

bad67
Feb 15, 2012 - 9:45pm

First post, my liege

I live at 58701, and I have your getaway car (think Thin Lizzy "Jailbreak"). You and Yours are awesome. Thanx to all who have schooled me and helped me to feel sane when I was just dizzy swirling in a sea of stupidity.

I love the new format and hope I can afford the rent.

artaud23 donnojackshit
Feb 15, 2012 - 9:51pm

SWAP, GSR, and Premiums.

I just concluded a fairly large and successful PM swap with Provident Metals and, other than postage, found the process to be relatively painless. Also I have done trades at my LCS. Just for comparison, before I decided to go with Provident for the trade, I asked the LCS what they would pay for generic silver one ounce bars (I had a bunch) and was told 7% below spot. Provident paid OVER spot and I was able to get both Volume and Cash discounts on the ASE's I swapped for. Their buy prices on gold coins were also at spot or very close to it. It was scary at first, but now that the deal is done, I see it as a nice way to upgrade and play the GSR as well.

¤
Feb 15, 2012 - 9:57pm

bad67

Welcome to Turdville!

Is that you smoking 'em up?

Justin
Feb 15, 2012 - 9:57pm

Subscription?

I know opinions are like assholes, especially from someone who doesn't visit here as often as I used too, but if money is an issue I'd like to vote for a return to Blogger. Things were much simpler there and to the point, mainly because it was more focused on what you had to say and the trends you wanted to share in regards to the metals while distributing information for free. I'm not a cheapskate, I just personally don't believe in paying for information(though I do make sure to click on ads for you when I do visit).

I remember when you first started up Along The Watchtower and told people you would shut it down if they continued to post in the comments about conspiracy theories, politics and a number of other things that you didn't like because they were a distraction from the metals. Ever since the switch here that's pretty much all the comments are now along with being spammed with news articles that we can find on our own, links to threads that we could also find on our own in the forums for those who care to view the forums, music videos, copy and pasted lyrics and a number of things that weren't as rampant on Blogger as they are here. I can't say that I haven't been guilty of the same occasionally in the past when I was a regular poster here, but being bombarded with that stuff constantly by the same people only adds to others following suit and is a turn-off for a lot of people, especially those who are first time viewers of your site as has been told to me by people I send links to. One look at the comments and they even question my reliability for recommending that they follow you based on what they see in the comments. Whether you want to admit it or not, that is a direct reflection on you and your site.

Sad to say, but the free Blogger account was better quality than this site has become because 90% of the content there submitted by yourself and others was metals related. The majority of people read what you have to say because they are interested in your views on chart reading and could care less about the other noise which is made blatantly obvious every time you hold a contest and lurkers come out of the shadows in droves to participate. Then they crawl back into their holes and return to just reading your posts while staying out of the comments because they are generally here for one reason and one reason only: your uncanny ability to forecast movements while not selling out and charging for information just as many other authors have done. Not trying to diss you, just sharing my point of view when it comes to someone who doesn't ever pay for subscriptions/information. If all the worthy content is for paying members only then there are zero reasons for non-subscribers to visit Turdville. Just my .02 cents.

Turdle GG
Feb 15, 2012 - 10:03pm

Keep up the good work Turd

Turd,

please do whatever you think is right for this site. You've done well so far, so I'm sure your judgment will continue to be good. Thanks for everything.

bad67
Feb 15, 2012 - 10:05pm

Dear DPH

Ya, that's me in the white helmet with the huge grin. I've had that car since I was 16 in 1978 (you do the math). I live just a few miles from the facility that Turd fears of his incarceration. I'll drive, you bring the Heineken, and we'll probably have to gag the turd to keep him quiet. Thanks, man.

NW VIEW
Feb 15, 2012 - 10:07pm

The Dollar

Trying to grab hold of 80. Tomorrow may be exciting.

Be Prepared
Feb 15, 2012 - 10:23pm

@bad67 - Welcome

Glad you have come the merry O' Land of Turdville!

rtabit Justin
Feb 15, 2012 - 10:42pm

Re: Subscription?

Personally, I don’t comment because I don’t have the knowledge others on this site have, hopefully that will change in time, so I guess I'm a lurker. I’m new here, about six weeks, so I don’t know how things used to be, but I find if I’m looking for more technical discussions about metals I tend to gravitate towards the forum. I like the comments on this site, to me it’s what sets it apart from the others I’ve visited, the intelligent user base. I also don't mind the videos and cartoons, can't be all work and play all the time. Most of the articles posted here are revenant to the conversation, offering confirming or different point of view, I like it, personally it accelerates the learning process for me. I guess if your a seasoned veteran you may not need it, and may already know about all the other sources of information out there, but that's not the case for me. Also, if there are certain users who comments you don’t want to view, just click the ignore button for that user, I assume you wouldn't see their comments anymore.

LaMachinna
Feb 15, 2012 - 10:42pm

@bad67

Welcome to the grand ol' land of turds! Come on in, relax and have a good time.

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