Gold and Silver Update and New Format Questions

Wed, Feb 15, 2012 - 7:13pm

I hope you've enjoyed this new format today. In what was a trial run, with this post I will have begun seven new threads today for you to peruse and ponder. Five of the threads would be general, public threads in the new format. This note as well as the previous sticky would both be considered "subscriber" content. Again, please don't fear the coming subscription component of the site. I think you'll be quite pleasantly surprised at how affordable a monthly subscription will be and the added revenue will allow us to have a lot more fun. More on that soon. For now, let's update the charts.

The most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks while silver has traded as its inverse. Take a look at the chart below and you'll plainly see that Pigatha is attempting to burst from her pen. Will she succeed? Probably...but be cautious. Forex trading will rip you a new one with all of the headfakes and sudden reversals.

Gold and silver continue rangebound but appear to be ready to test their lower ends again. The Cartel seems content to press gold lower under the downsloping trendline I've drawn on the chart. Having failed to break above the trendline today, do not be surprised if gold retests the 1705-15 level very soon. Silver found buyers again above $33. Something tells me that if The Pig continues higher and gold continues lower, we'll soon get another opportunity to see if $33 can hold.

And here's a bonus chart for you. AAPL put a nasty looking Outside Reversal Day on its chart today. You can be certain that the momentum-chasing WOPRs will notice this tomorrow and AAPL will likely continue lower for a while. Remember that AAPL is about 25% of the overall NASDAQ, so, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. If stocks are headed lower while The Pig heads higher, you can imagine what will be happening to the PMs. Just sayin.

Lastly, I have some number for you to ponder and then please post your thoughts in the comments. For the CoT reporting week of 2/7 - 2/14, we saw the following:

Gold: Down $30 Silver: Down $0.81

April OI down 7,647 March OI down 9,208 while May OI up 7,549

Total OI down 4,897 Total OI down 1,136

Over the course of the reporting week, do you think that OI and price fell because specs were selling and closing contracts? Did OI fall because the specs sat tight while The Cartels sold more longs than covered shorts, driving price lower? Is there some other combination you can think of? We'll have some answers on Friday.

That's all for now. Have a great evening. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 16, 2012 - 12:49am


Greece debt rating cut further by Moody's - 7 March 2011 Moody's doubts the Greek government's ability to implement unpopular austerity measures quickly enough Moody's has downgraded Greece's debt to "highly speculative" prompting an angry response from the finance ministry.Greek bonds fell after the rating agency cut its rating from Ba1 to B1..
vamoose1 Fred Hayek
Feb 16, 2012 - 12:55am

@ fred

i will try. I think some material portion of it is PSLV2, the second Sprott physical silver underwriting that closed for 350 million on Dec 21. PSLV1 was 580 million and turned the silver market full tilt, but , importantly, there is now an open prospectus cleared, on an hours notice for a billion two more physical silver, and this old fools considered opinion is that, well, one thing at a time might be prudent, get those warm refinery fresh bars stacked, then we can consider PSLV3, and paste them good.

We are now 25 days into the mission, nothing is delivered, management is on record, this is important , they stated we will tell you in the Investor section of the PSLV site, when we have our silver in its spot, , in the vault under the Royal Canadian Mint in Ottawa Canada.

7 days should be enough for the Brinks trucks to drive it from Chicago to Ottawa, its not that far, get some strong young men/ women, and gunch those bars into the truck, lock that back door and head North. Bring passports.

PSLV1 revealed this comical charade in physical silver, JPMorgan got dry raped on their naked short, . It took over 3 months to scrape up bars you could stick your finger in, if you cared to. The silver DID NOT EXIST.

PSLV2 is beginning to become instructive too. The PSLV1, Prospectus had a one year hold, I think after almost losing their criminal enterprise as a result of it, the JPM boys corked the summer coke and sent Tatiana back to Uke, but they most certainly knew the expiry date on that PSLV 12 month holding period, the survivors that is, the ones not wearing the heavy footwear in the Potomac for their drug addled negligence.

In other words , PSLV2 was a known telegraphed instrument to the hour, so one assumes that Murder Incorporated was a little bit better prepared this time.

The choice is in some respects theirs, give the remaining silver scraps to a voracious China, or change the Policy, declare it an innocuous industrial metal, of no particular numismatic importance, and get off the fucking offering. If it goes to 300, a skinny old Santa shows up at the JPm Christmas party, I will pop jamie on my left knee, and blythe on the other, and we will whisper sweet north pole nothings.

Feb 16, 2012 - 1:09am


If the random comments bug you get a scroll wheel mouse or just stop reading after Turd's analysis. What other "financial" web site makes you LOL! (or even LMFAO!!!) every now & then?

Being a Mini Stacker, a lot of the statistical minutia goes right past me, but once in a while something sticks after reading the comments.

Juan Moment
Feb 16, 2012 - 1:25am

Turd Surprise - 3 in 1

I for one think its great to have a site that is not as one dimensional as the rest of the PM blogsphere.

One of the main reasons I and presumably many visitors swing by everyday is the community spirit this readership has developed. If all I want is some PM technical analysis and other gold and silver related news there is a myriad of sites to choose from. Turdville is so much more than that and for that I am grateful, to the point that I am prepared to contribute a reasonable amount towards the running costs and Turd's time.

What I can't get my head around is, even though the scroll function has been around now for 20 years, it amazes me how many people are still incapable of using it.

If I find a video of no interest to me, I just scroll past it. And if there are three in a row I'll scroll past all three, childs play. Why get hung up about such a minor detail? As if your time is so precious that having to spend 5 seconds on scrolling through uninteresting comments diminishes all the content worthwhile reading.

To this day I haven't felt the need to add anyone to my Ignore list, thats how easy it is to just move past comments by the one or two posters I tend to pay no attention to.

I do agree with Dr. Durden's comment though, the subscription only comment threads should indeed be kept on topic.

Regarding the new format, hard to say yet if its going to be a major improvement, only time will tell. The disadvantage of posting numerous new posts every day lies in visitors having to then track their discussions across multiple threads, potentially tyring and fragmentizing the readership. One or two threads a day are easy enough to follow, 5 is a different story.

Anyhow, based on the grand job Turd and the team have done so far with this site, I look forward to any improvements you guys dream up.

vamoose1 garrylindsay
Feb 16, 2012 - 1:40am

@ garry

Its futile, but i have silver in the 4s, bot ten years ago, and 450 gold, so i weep reluctantly, go so show them a chart of microsoft, which shows what happens when the product pool runs dry, as it must, but the larger lesson which i know from rueful experience, dont try to talk sense to people in love with their dreams, you will never be thanked for being right as you are, its kinda unwinnable, and when they show up at your door, prostrate hat in hand, you make not a peep, either no words, or perhaps three words suffice " rise my children " then we are humans, humans at our best this is why we got sent.

Feb 16, 2012 - 2:48am

Silver short-term lease rate turns negative

That plus the consistent build up of COT short positions recently indicates to me that EE is cooking again.

Eric Original
Feb 16, 2012 - 3:56am

I'm digging it

The new format, that is.

I can see the topics, and skip a few entirely if I so choose, and participate in the rest. Each of us has a different idea of which is the wheat and which is the chaff on the site. The new format might help each of us get what we want a little more efficiently. I'm all for that.

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:03am

It seems like everyone's waiting

Will the pig clear 80 and run? Will the euro break 1.30 and fall?

Tune in nek minnit to find the answers to these and other essentially the same questions...

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:14am

...seems like everyone's waiting

yeah, same bat time, same bat channel...

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:34am

I think this site will die out if it goes subscription

I advise pure donation model without advertisements, should cover the costs easily with all these wealthy people around.

A 100 mbit dedicated server with ample power costs 1200 euro per year at a high quality hoster.

Feb 16, 2012 - 5:43am

Volatility squeeze

I can't remember a period in the last 3 years, since I've been following Silver, when there has been such a lack of volatility. If you put some Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, you will see what I mean. This pent up energy will have to be dissipated sooner or later and my guess is it is imminent. But which way? Well that is the million ounce question isn't it. This is a perfect straddle trade for those option hunters out there, but for me, and with vamoose's words ringing in my head, I will go with the trend and that is long.

Feb 16, 2012 - 6:15am

Something to think about

Hi folks,

I've found some good reading, I thought I will post it here for everybody who is interested in biases and trading.



Feb 16, 2012 - 6:17am

vamoose true-isms

dont try to talk sense to people in love with their dreams

ringing in my head, too.

​I also think release of energy upwards silverstool, but maybe I'm just in love with my dream.

Feb 16, 2012 - 6:23am

Anonymous taking down root DNS

I call bullshit. You guys don't know me. By day I'm wha'ts called an Infrastructure Architect and I've been around a LONG time in IT. I don't know everything, but I know a LOT.

DNS is not something you just overrun with a botnet. Firstly the servers they are targeting are whats called the 'root DNS' servers. They are from your perspective nothing more than a 'master DNS list' that all the worlds ISP's refer to. Like a library. Claiming that closing the doors to all libraries world wide does not somehow make all world books inaccessible.

Your ISP's DNS system will be referring to multiple root DNS servers to start with, AND would also maintain a 'full clone' of the -entire thing-. The other role o root DNS is the propagation of changes. So, people registering a new company name at say '' would have to wait until the root servers came back online. The primary purpose of the root servers is to arbitrate the creation of new domain names, and the forwarding of updates. I imagine occasionally when new ISP's come online they might get a full copy from a root DNS server(Zone Transfer). If they choose that day, march 31st, they may have to find an ISP who will let them clone their database.

Much to the contrary of what Anonymous claims, the internet will not 'go dark'. You know what will happen? On that day you'll have no extra DNS names registered. Now, considering the fact that most domain names being registered are being registered in bulk by name campers it really doesn't matter. This would have to go on for months before real problems were revealed, and even then, a loose association of ISP engineers would just start a secondary mesh. Al 'your' internet Dns requests will be services by your ISP's copy.

More likely, the admins at the root zone servers will just whitelist major ISP's, and the whole thing goes on, with the root server external routers dropping all packets from untrusted sites until anonymous loses interest. Which won't take long. Corporate DNS servers will likely just increase the TTL on it's cache to a week to see how things go.

Perhaps going after every DNS server on the planet, THAT would bring down the internet. It would also be insanely hard to do.

If they want to attack the establishment surely they can come up with something better than this? How about hacking in to windows update and seeding it with an 'all disk format patch to the world set to go off 30 days later once fully deployed. That would be 'disruptive', knocking our around 83% of all computers on the planet.

Feb 16, 2012 - 7:12am

My 2 cents about this place:

My 2 cents about this place: Mr. Ferguson's house, Mr. Ferguson's right to do as he so desires - just as we're all free to keep coming back, join, donate, subscribe or not. I say quit your whining either way - who wants to hear anyone whining, seriously? ....erm, lets overlook this could be construed as whining :) Lighten up and let it go.

Please Turd, your time is greatly appreciated and I imagine somewhat stretched doing this - don't waste a single moment of it replying (with what we're all thinking anyway) to the comments by the tools (never understood why they waste their time trying to waste yours - I hope they're kids, just plain sad if these are adults...).

And fwiw, this is the first community I've felt compelled to join (this being my inaugural post!) and even intend to subscribe when the time comes (also unheard of for me). Been following since the blog (though only woke up about 4 years ago) but haven't contributed as never felt had anything useful to contribute, still haven't to be honest but I do have a couple of newbie questions:

1) If there's quadrillions in derivatives sitting atop little real capital then won't the collapse just destroy this fake wealth in a 'counter party implosion' style rather than it flowing down Exter's pyramid, barring a little first out the exit scramble? Otherwise the relative value of the PMs to other tangible stuff will remain unchanged if it's just Central Bank printing that is the cause of rise in fiat (breaking free of suppression not withstanding). Sorry, the greedy part of me really wants the fofoa 50+k/oz etc numbers but struggling to work out the how!

2) Spot prices - how are these determined? Not just the Comex/Globex I presume? If/when these default then what?

And if anyone wants a top called in the metals then you just need ask me the next time I plan to stack some more - I astound myself with my accuracy. Thankfully always just temporary tops of course!

Feb 16, 2012 - 7:21am
Feb 16, 2012 - 7:23am
Feb 16, 2012 - 7:25am
Big L
Feb 16, 2012 - 7:35am

Of course it's someone else's responsibility

"should cover the costs easily with all these wealthy people around."

You let us know who you think is wealthy enough to carry your load for you and we'll send them a bill.


Big L

Feb 16, 2012 - 8:02am

Here's my .02

I lurk the chart & oi posts...I'm not a trader and really don't have a clue as to how all that stuff works. I started stacking awhile back and truly appreciate the ability to lurk & learn. Not only from TF, but also the regular posters.

I enjoy the varied content and will post on topics when I think my opinion may (or may not!) contribute to the conversation. I like the humor, the videos, the music and the camaraderie. I read Turd's posts and DPH's news forum daily and lurk the other forum topics when I have time.

With any change, there will always be 'growing' pains. People will adapt or choose to spend their free time elsewhere.

As far as subscription goes...when someone decides to devote their time (and I imagine it's alot of time) to give complete strangers information, thoughts, ideas, and a place to learn about what is happening in the world of metals, finance & preparing for the end of the keynesian experiment - that it has taken them a lifetime to attain - a reasonable person would understand the value here. You won't learn it in college, you won't learn it from your broker, lawyer or accountant. Whatever the price of a subscription is a minor pittance for the treasure of information and data Turd provides. imho

Here's an interesting article for anyone interested...

Nanosecond Trading Could Make Markets Go Haywire

Always learning jacey

Monedas garrylindsay
Feb 16, 2012 - 8:03am

Condo in Costo Rico ! (I know....Costa Rica)

That sounds like a prudent investment ? When the SHTF they will burn your mattresses looking for your stack ! A prison fire in your condo ? Ha ha ! Don't be distracted by your AAPL your TURDS for biofeedback and investment advice ! When it comes to PM manipulation.....and it's happening now on a "War Room" minute by minute BASIS.....Monedas 2012 says: BUY THE LIE !!!

Feb 16, 2012 - 8:22am

the black hole

HL and AEM are approaching the singularity

Feb 16, 2012 - 8:23am


Costa Rica might be THE place to go.

i've been there n know expats down there.......

low cost living......stay out of san jose like u stay away from all big cities here......skullduggery is up the world wide.

pacific coast the place to go........Nosara.

friendly beautiful tan women.

gulf coast kinda like the US-mexican border

looking forward to shorting AAPL.


Feb 16, 2012 - 8:27am

1699 is on the way once it

1699 is on the way once it goes past 1715 imo (and I am on record a week or so ago somewhere here with that number). Maybe 1680 possibly 1660 but I just can't see it any lower than that regardless of COT numbers. P.S. I am usually wrong short term :)

Feb 16, 2012 - 8:30am

Thar she blows

comex open and whammo. where she stops nobody knows..

Monedas boatman
Feb 16, 2012 - 8:48am

Costa Rica !

Sorry, Boatman, I didn't mean to be mean to C.R. ! I understand it is the preferred destination for XPATS in that part of the world ! I like the tree house condo that lady built out of a Boeing 727.....I assume she found it perched there in that mango tree like a big parrot with a broken wing over looking the Pacific ? Honduras is the "Prison fire capital" ! Monedas 2012 This is the closest thing to a retraction you will ever see from The Monedas.....enjoy it !

Feb 16, 2012 - 8:51am

@monedas...i didn't take it that way

prisons can burn anywhere.

we're on same page, buddy.

keep on keepin on, bro.

retract your retractment n keep your record clean!!!!!

Feb 16, 2012 - 8:59am

99th monkey

Welcome to the good ship Turdville!

Nice to to see someone posting for the first time.

Rolling Stones - Monkey Man (Lyrics & Song)
Salisbury House
Feb 16, 2012 - 9:05am

Down Again

Queen City Kids - Down Again
Feb 16, 2012 - 9:14am

In again

see what happens 1710 and 32.75


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS