I hope you've enjoyed this new format today. In what was a trial run, with this post I will have begun seven new threads today for you to peruse and ponder. Five of the threads would be general, public threads in the new format. This note as well as the previous sticky would both be considered "subscriber" content. Again, please don't fear the coming subscription component of the site. I think you'll be quite pleasantly surprised at how affordable a monthly subscription will be and the added revenue will allow us to have a lot more fun. More on that soon. For now, let's update the charts.
The most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks while silver has traded as its inverse. Take a look at the chart below and you'll plainly see that Pigatha is attempting to burst from her pen. Will she succeed? Probably...but be cautious. Forex trading will rip you a new one with all of the headfakes and sudden reversals.
Gold and silver continue rangebound but appear to be ready to test their lower ends again. The Cartel seems content to press gold lower under the downsloping trendline I've drawn on the chart. Having failed to break above the trendline today, do not be surprised if gold retests the 1705-15 level very soon. Silver found buyers again above $33. Something tells me that if The Pig continues higher and gold continues lower, we'll soon get another opportunity to see if $33 can hold.
And here's a bonus chart for you. AAPL put a nasty looking Outside Reversal Day on its chart today. You can be certain that the momentum-chasing WOPRs will notice this tomorrow and AAPL will likely continue lower for a while. Remember that AAPL is about 25% of the overall NASDAQ, so, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. If stocks are headed lower while The Pig heads higher, you can imagine what will be happening to the PMs. Just sayin.
Lastly, I have some number for you to ponder and then please post your thoughts in the comments. For the CoT reporting week of 2/7 - 2/14, we saw the following:
Gold: Down $30 Silver: Down $0.81
April OI down 7,647 March OI down 9,208 while May OI up 7,549
Total OI down 4,897 Total OI down 1,136
Over the course of the reporting week, do you think that OI and price fell because specs were selling and closing contracts? Did OI fall because the specs sat tight while The Cartels sold more longs than covered shorts, driving price lower? Is there some other combination you can think of? We'll have some answers on Friday.
That's all for now. Have a great evening. TF