Gold and Silver Update and New Format Questions

Wed, Feb 15, 2012 - 7:13pm

I hope you've enjoyed this new format today. In what was a trial run, with this post I will have begun seven new threads today for you to peruse and ponder. Five of the threads would be general, public threads in the new format. This note as well as the previous sticky would both be considered "subscriber" content. Again, please don't fear the coming subscription component of the site. I think you'll be quite pleasantly surprised at how affordable a monthly subscription will be and the added revenue will allow us to have a lot more fun. More on that soon. For now, let's update the charts.

The most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks while silver has traded as its inverse. Take a look at the chart below and you'll plainly see that Pigatha is attempting to burst from her pen. Will she succeed? Probably...but be cautious. Forex trading will rip you a new one with all of the headfakes and sudden reversals.

Gold and silver continue rangebound but appear to be ready to test their lower ends again. The Cartel seems content to press gold lower under the downsloping trendline I've drawn on the chart. Having failed to break above the trendline today, do not be surprised if gold retests the 1705-15 level very soon. Silver found buyers again above $33. Something tells me that if The Pig continues higher and gold continues lower, we'll soon get another opportunity to see if $33 can hold.

And here's a bonus chart for you. AAPL put a nasty looking Outside Reversal Day on its chart today. You can be certain that the momentum-chasing WOPRs will notice this tomorrow and AAPL will likely continue lower for a while. Remember that AAPL is about 25% of the overall NASDAQ, so, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market. If stocks are headed lower while The Pig heads higher, you can imagine what will be happening to the PMs. Just sayin.

Lastly, I have some number for you to ponder and then please post your thoughts in the comments. For the CoT reporting week of 2/7 - 2/14, we saw the following:

Gold: Down $30 Silver: Down $0.81

April OI down 7,647 March OI down 9,208 while May OI up 7,549

Total OI down 4,897 Total OI down 1,136

Over the course of the reporting week, do you think that OI and price fell because specs were selling and closing contracts? Did OI fall because the specs sat tight while The Cartels sold more longs than covered shorts, driving price lower? Is there some other combination you can think of? We'll have some answers on Friday.

That's all for now. Have a great evening. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 15, 2012 - 7:19pm
Feb 15, 2012 - 7:20pm

I used to never go for First!

...until seeing Pining's details on what happens, exactly. So I will be the first to thank Turd for his ongoing efforts. Looking forward to the further development -- but you've already come a long way. EDIT: And of course, even NOW I get punked by DPH... ;-)

Feb 15, 2012 - 7:23pm


Thanks big, yellow-hatted dude for all of your work.

The new format promises to be interesting and I'm looking forward to it.

CA Lawyer...Thanks for the shout out at The Daily DPHaze. You have my appreciation as well for what you've brought and keep on bringing to the community.

Feb 15, 2012 - 7:27pm


Sorry for stealing your thunder. I've been first twice I think and maybe said Bitchez' twice also.

I'm good for another year and will go back to my usual "last post" infamy until then.

Las Vegas Dave
Feb 15, 2012 - 7:47pm

If you start charging for content

do you really think people are gonna be happy about having to scroll through all the music videos posted by juevenile hipsters like purple haze?

Thanks for all your info and effort Turd but I hope you rethink this one

Feb 15, 2012 - 7:47pm

I remember advising one of my friends about AAPL in '03

I said that it looked like it made a higher low, and higher highs + higher lows = well you know. I didn't want to short it. Should've bought some.

Anyway, I've been looking for AAPL to turn, but I tend to be early on these things. Maybe AAPL's finally starting to rot? It wouldn't surprise me.

I remember that era. GOOG was higher than gold, and everyone was looking at me weird for being in gold and not GOOG. Didn't get much respect back then. Call me Rodney Dangerfield.

Well you numbskulls, who's laughing now? GOOG is 600 and gold is 1700. Revenge is sweet, even if I can't taunt those people anymore :P

Feb 15, 2012 - 7:51pm

1st uptick in silver lease rates

The cartel surely is blowing their load... anyone who can't see that is blind here. They desperately need to keep it capped at $34. Will they be able to? Only time will tell.

Feb 15, 2012 - 7:52pm

AAPL vs Silver and Gold

PM's have been trounced compared to AAPL. Best thing was to buy Apple for the olast 5 years and then use the winnings to buy PM's!

Read it and weep! The saddest part is the idiot that sold me my car 6 months ago told me they were all in Google and Apple etc... and that I was a nut for being into PM's. Despite my economic knowledge, as of now I have been financially trounced by the sheep! So sad! At least this type of Nasdaq investing sheep is enjoying him/herself for the last 3 years. I just hope by the time PM's start winning, my neighborhood does not look like Athens or Beirut!

I guess I am just sick of being laughed at by my Apple/Google investing family and friends

Feb 15, 2012 - 8:01pm

The Power of GSR reposted!

Reposted as I'm on the other side of the planet and 18 hours outa whack with the bulk of the Turdites. Fellow Turdites I usually just read the many great posts here, for which I am truly grateful to The Turd for allowing us this forum and the many great contributors here. So I thought I would share my strategy to make my stack grow and have it pay me dividends, even if crooked lap dogs like Buffet deliberately mislead the sheeple with "Gold is a lousy investment that doesn't pay dividends". Working in easy to follow round numbers, let us assume you currently have 10 x 1 oz bars of Gold and 100 x 1 oz silver Eagles as your accumulated stash. 1. So at GSR = 50, (NOW at the moment), you trade your 10 oz's Gold for 500 oz's Silver. (If you don't have a stash yet, buy some silver now to start working the GSR.) 2. Major GSR move #1. (within the next 12 months but maybe sooner). Say in 1 month, 6 months or 1 year from now, the GSR tumbles to 25. Then take the entire 500 oz's Silver and trade for 20 oz's Gold. You have now doubled your physical stash. You now have 20 oz's Gold and 100 oz's Silver in your stash, and the ability to continue capitalizing whether the GSR continues down or goes back up. If the GSR continues South, then you still have part of your stash to deploy. Say, GSR = 20, then swop 20 ASE's for 1 AGE GSR = 10, then swop 20 ASE's for 2 AGE's GSR = 5, then swop 20 ASE's for 4 AGE's GSR = 2, then swop 20 ASE's for 10 AGE's GSR = 1, then swop 20 ASE's for 20AGE's If at any of these GSR's, eg say at 10, the GSR then starts to climb back to 50 and beyond, then instead of just doubling your money you can multiply it by 5 times for just that one swop and so on. The numbers get mouth watering crazy, particularly if you get a chance for 3 or 4 major GSR moves from when you started. 2. Major GSR move #2. (another 6 to 12 months, say in 2013) So, If the GSR (from 25) now heads back to 50, swop 10 oz's Gold for 500 oz's Silver, You now have your original 100 ASE's + 10 oz's Gold + (500 ASE's + 10 oz's Gold). If the GSR then continues to 55, swop 1 oz gold for 55 oz's silver If the GSR then continues to 60, swop 1 oz gold for 60 oz's silver If the GSR then continues to 65, swop 1 oz gold for 65 oz's silver If the GSR then continues to 70, swop 1 oz gold for 70 oz's silver You can continue all the way past a GSR of 100 plus with this method and this is all bonus silver ounces (55 + 60 + 65 + 70 ........+100) In this way, you can easily double your stash, quite possibly on a yearly basis, but even more if the GSR moves past the ranges of 25 to 50. You now have your dividend stream, so suck shit Buffet! You will lose anywhere from GSR 2.7 plus on your swops, but this is a small price to pay. I don't know how many more times this GSR opportunity will arise, but the beauty about this method is you ALWAYS HAVE PHYSICAL and a good spread on both gold and silver to hedge your bets on future price possibilities, depending on whether you believe gold or silver may be the answer. You are not gambling, have no counterparty risk and are not predicting the future, but reacting with a plan as events unfold. You are not concerned about price unless you need to cash a few onces in to survive (gold on the high GSR, silver on the low). You can turn a humble small stack into something truly amazing! Over the last 30 years, thanks to the CRIMEX, the GSR has a major move (I define a major move of at least 30 points GSR) at least once a year and we could see more majors/year? The range is typically between 30 and 60, but has been down to 25 and up to 100. With increasing volitility and upheavals in the world, these outliers should all be left in the dust in the next 5 years. (GSR>100 and 1:1 Ag to Au would be amazing to behold! You could do this on allocated bullion too so as to minimise the transportation issues, but at this point in the game, I don't trust any bullion or trading operation with my physical. Develop your own plan, with your own numbers and as I say to all the criminal bankers, polititians and crooked centrist scumbags, "Fuck the Fucking Fuckers!"

Feb 15, 2012 - 8:12pm

It looks like with the low comment

counts on some of your posts today that this new format is not working well. With no announcement of new posts on the old post people are just staying on the old post and commenting. By the time they check for a new post there are two or three new ones. Need to announce the new post so general posters will move on and topic posters can keep the conversation going.

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