Silver Still Strong Above $33

Tue, Feb 14, 2012 - 10:46am

The Turd is very impressed with the continuing action in silver. It continues to find strong support every time it moves down toward $33 and it beginning to de-couple from the POSX.

So let's start this lovely Tuesday right there. The POSX has been rallying of late, primarily due to Euro weakness. We're now also seeing weakness in the Yen but more on that later. For now, here's the same old Pig chart that we've been watching. 79.60 is obviously a level to watch very closely.


Interestingly, silver is beginning to de-couple from The Pig. As we detailed last week, silver and Pigatha have been in a nearly perfect, negative correlation for almost 3 weeks. That is beginning to change and, if this trend continues to strengthen, would be a clear sign of an impending move higher. Silver would look to finally move through 34-34.40 and head to 35-35.50. Adding to this optimism is the continued, almost-herculean strength of silver above $33. For the first time that I can recall, the battle seems evenly fought. Though the EE is working desperately to keep silver below $34, The Good Guys seem equally resolute in keeping it above $33. Seriously, when was the last time that we saw such an evenly matched fight? The Forces of Darkness almost always overwhelm our miniscule, under-armed and under-funded Freedom Fighters. Is this another sign of the major shift of 2012 that we've been predicting (hoping) would happen? Maybe.


Gold continues under Cartel pressure. One would logically expect gold to be trading significantly higher here given all of the unrest in the world. That it isn't is a clear indication of Cartel intent. Again, a 5% correction following a 15% advance would take gold back to 1680. That would work for me!


Here are four links before we get to the updated crude chart:


Here are two other links that you should find interesting. First, the American state of Utah is considering the issuance of their own gold and silver-backed currency.

And Patrick Heller chimes in regarding the PMs but includes some very helpful information about counterfeit silver rounds and bars.

The Bank of Japan intervened again overnight by announcing another significant Yen dump. You can read about it here:¥10-trillion-valentines-day-liquidity-present

Though Japan has been in economic tar pit for over 20 years, the earthquake of last March has been a devastating game-changer. If I recall correctly, last night's action was the third such overt intervention in the time since. So, here are three questions:

  1. Has the earthquake so dramatically effected Japan's economy that the long-term trendline shown on the chart is doomed to fail sometime soon?
  2. Will a breakdown on the yen chart foreshadow a breakdown on the gold chart?
  3. Maybe it doesn't matter. Are the two charts correlated or are they just a coincidence?


(Perhaps and industrious and helpful Turdite can plot and post a chart of the Yen and gold together?)

Finally, it was with great disappointment that I watched the final episode of "Freedom Watch" last night. This program was unlike any other in the media and it will be greatly missed.


4:00 pm EST UPDATE:

Just wanted to add two things after observing the action today.

First, The Pig is very close to breaking out and moving higher. IF it does, it has room to run all of the way toward 80.50 or so. This would likely be detrimental to the short-term price of paper metal.


Second, I've noticed some discussion about the relevance of lease rates on price. Please review these two charts again. Notice that in September and December, just days after moving below -0.40%, silver was crushed. Is there a direct cause/effect? Who can say for sure? What I do know is that these two charts say a lot and if rates fall below -0.40% again, I'll be looking to buy some puts.


For a more in-depth review, I urge you to read this post from last Saturday:

Have a great night. Watch the POSX and gold very closely. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 14, 2012 - 10:50am


Missed it by that much

Feb 14, 2012 - 10:51am

I can't be Thurd again

I can't be Thurd again

Feb 14, 2012 - 10:52am

Turd You're My Valentine!!

You're the Best. I heart you. wink Oh yeah, and for anyone else...

First Bitchez! Mwa ha ha haaaa!

(sorry, couldn't help it. I'm an old Zerohedger... Keep Stackin!) 

Be Prepared
Feb 14, 2012 - 10:53am

Fourthly... I walk

into the dark

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:01am

Need a fifth

Of the whiskey

Desert Fox
Feb 14, 2012 - 11:02am

Let's review,,,Greece is on

Let's review,,,

Greece is on Fire, Margin shenanigans, More Military Sword Rattling, Bigger budget deficits,,, and they still can't break Silver down.

Come on Blythe, German food not agreeing with ya? lol

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:05am

Happy Valentine's Day!

For all the ladies here.

Ah, what the heck guys - go ahead and feast on this too.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:07am

Thanks Turd

Thanks Turd, it truly amazes me to see Americans blinded by manipulated markets and government numbers that are "shovel ready"! I pray that people start to search for the truth and prepare accordingly.

I too will miss the judge as he is the only person that I can stomach on msm!

To everyone else in turdville I hope you all have a great valentines day!

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:10am


$33.60 - give or take a couple cents - starting to look like support for silver.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:10am

OK, old Wall St saying...............

OK, old Wall St saying;

"Side-ways markets go down."

Forget the taunts and head-fakes, anybody heard the fat lady sing?
No? I didn't either. So, it's still Game-On, until they capitulate.

Capitulate~!? hahahaha. That's a good one.

This is the only game they [EE] know.

The number of shorts is so diminished , simply because they no longer need that many to keep the price down.

All the 'long' specs have been driven out, or just plain crushed.

I'm saying........Keep some powder dry here troops.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:16am

Thanks for all the chart data

Thanks for all the chart data and analysis, Turd. The outlook for Silver sounds promising, but I won't be holding my breath - stack, stack, stack.

I don't know what others think - but - if I lived in Utah, there would be no way that I would be forking over any of my Gold and/or Silver to pay State taxes. (Kinda sounds like a covert confiscation program to me). 

Nice to see the Iranians shadowing the Abraham Lincoln, through the strait [/sarc] - one day this is going to get messy - continue to be long Canadian Oils.

LaMachinna Mammoth
Feb 14, 2012 - 11:26am


Mammoth!~ Deliciouso.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:27am


I happened to notice that APMEX is buying back silver eagles at about $1.50 over spot and gold eagles at about $30.00 over spot. Hadn't noticed that before (mainly because I wasn't looking) and was curious if this is unusual. My LCS sure isn't paying anything close to spot for eagles.

Dr G
Feb 14, 2012 - 11:29am

I'm also very impressed with

I'm also very impressed with silver. Like I said in the last thread, it seems they can't take it down (at least not yet). I don't remember a time when silver was under such downside pressure yet continued to trade in a 50 cent range. The bad news is that it still seems capped below 34 as of now.

Perhaps the strength in silver is just the EE focusing more on gold? It seems they only focus on one metal at a time. You'll note that the May Smackdown last year was just a blip on the radar for gold, but was devastating to silver.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:31am

Flailing away

My boy is 3 months old now. His arms and legs flail away in every direction on a whim. Feels very much like the markets in the last few days imo. 

Silver has been a champ in the $33.50's especially with the eur/usd selling off lately. Certainly was not the case over the last few weeks - definitely decoupling. I'm almost tempted to go long here but lease rates dropped some more today and are getting into that range that makes me uncomfortable buying and holding. Waterfalls have a track record of occurring after-hours. 

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:32am

Thanks Turd

and Turdites.


However - again - its not Valentine's Day... its the celebration of Lupercalia

Lupercalia was a very ancient, possibly pre-Roman[1] pastoral festival, observed on February 13 through 15 to avert evil spirits and purify the city, releasing health and fertility. Lupercalia subsumed Februa, an earlier-origin spring cleansing ritual held on the same date, which gives the month of February its name.

The sacrificial feast followed, after which the Luperci cut thongs from the skins of the victims, which were called februa, dressed themselves in the skins of the sacrificed goats, in imitation of Lupercus, and ran round the walls of the old Palatine city, the line of which was marked with stones, with the thongs in their hands in two bands, striking the people who crowded near. Girls and young women would line up on their route to receive lashes from these whips. This was supposed to ensure fertility, prevent sterility in women and ease the pains of childbirth.


We are dealing with sun-worshippers...luciferians. We are celebrating and honoring ancient pagan traditions and customs - disguised as other events with cute, funny, lovable things/names. And no one questions it - just go out and be a good consumer and spend money - because society DEMANDS you to spend money on these BULshit days...they are LYING to us.

We are being f**kin DUPED, manipulated, sucks. What's worse - no one caresss to research. Where is the independent thinkers out there??!! I wish it was just the financials - the whole damn muppet show is tainted.

Yahoo! - Go watch in the top right hand corner the yahoo main page special valentines day gif load up. There is a clear animated image of a sun shinning and pulsating rays while the heart rolls down the conveyer belt...

That's why Gold&Silver makes so much sense to me... its ancient its been around for ages - like these traditions and customs...

History is merely Repeating Itself...we are digressing, not progressing...



Dr G Harald
Feb 14, 2012 - 11:37am

@Harald, my LCS charges 3.50

@Harald, my LCS charges 3.50 over spot for silver eagles, and buys them back for $2 over spot.

Provident is buying back eagles for $1.75 over spot right now, and gold eagles for $35 over spot.

I don't think there is anything unusual about APMEX buying back at those prices.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:40am

n our interview with John, basing his opinion off of the actual numbers, not the propaganda put out by the government, John is forecasting that the Federal Reserve “is in a no win situation.” He goes on to add that he hates to say it, but looking at the environment we are in, “this is end of the world type stuff, the end of the financial world as we know it.”

According to John, our official deficit of 2011, which was around 1.3 trillion, is a complete lie. However, when you include all of our debt obligations it was actually about 5 trillion dollars.

John also noted in our interview that even if you cut all spending except for social security and medicare, the U.S. would still be running an annual deficit.

When it comes to preparing for the future, he says Americans should buy canned food rather than treasury bills.

We also discuss a gold backed dollar, the Euro crisis, and how much longer can the “powers that be” kick the can down the road.

This interview is a must listen for our members, John approaches this from a purely macro-economic perspective and we always enjoy his analysis.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:40am


Rarely seen silver so flat. It's very strange. Next move will be significant : 40$ on the upside, or 30$ on the downside.

Dr G Alex
Feb 14, 2012 - 11:41am

I'm almost tempted to go long

I'm almost tempted to go long here but lease rates dropped some more today and are getting into that range that makes me uncomfortable buying and holding. Waterfalls have a track record of occurring after-hours. 

​Turd is brilliant and simple in his analysis (that's what makes it so special), but lease rates are NOT the end-all, be-all of EE raids. When silver got destroyed in May, lease rates when from 0.0 to 0.6! No where near the negative region, but that was the largest sell-off and blatant raid we've had.

I also show the current lease rates as unchanged at -0.31. Do you have different data?

Dr G
Feb 14, 2012 - 11:46am

YTD relative performance:

YTD relative performance:

and note Dr. C today:

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:47am

Lease rate

What about the lease rate for silver? It looks to still be dropping.

Dr G x
Feb 14, 2012 - 11:50am

What about the lease rate for

What about the lease rate for silver? It looks to still be dropping.

It's been the same all week according to Kitco (as of 2/13/12). -0.31:

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:50am


When I saw Turd's charts above the first thought I had was "what's the carry trade doing lately to explain this". I found this analysis from Mizuho, it's a .pdf link. I think it all comes down to the one market that's still in a bubble of sorts - the US Treasury and Bond markets, and they could be heavily influenced by a change in the carry trade. Either way, gold is the go to asset imho.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:52am

much of the YTD performance

much of the YTD performance is just snapback from the end of year takedowns

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:57am

Dr G

You have a good LCS. Mine's selling prices are pretty good but he's chintzy on buybacks.

Feb 14, 2012 - 11:58am

What is it with Sinclair?

I can't remember this many long, thoughtful, and, dare I say, dramatic posts in such a short period of time. Is it an old man's musing? An analyst's frightening realization that "the moment has come", or is it me getting bored with PM action over the last 2.5 weeks and wanting something big to happen?

Don't know, but I sure would like some enlightening on the subject. Any enlightening to be had out there??? I'm fresh out.

Eric Original
Feb 14, 2012 - 12:09pm


Excellent observation about Santa.

I don't have any "enlightening" to offer, other than that I've been noticing the same as you lately.

Rhinestone Cowboy
Feb 14, 2012 - 12:15pm

Some serious firepower:

The Guys from Knight Rifles "Americas Muzzleloader" Shoot the .950 JDJ

Feb 14, 2012 - 12:22pm

@Fried Eggs on Luciferians

I actually have a question and some comments over the connection between Satanists and so-called "sun worship," but rather than hijacking this thread over the subject, I have posted my response to you in the forums:

However, this is a little something I stumbled across that I thought other folks here might be interested in reading (note: this comes from a Christian source):

Mexico Drug Cartels in Regions Steeped in Witchcraft, Demonic


Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/21

1/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
1/24 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMI
1/24 10:00 ET Leading Econ Indicators
1/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

Recent Comments

by Thomas More, 14 min 40 sec ago
by J Siefert, 37 min 3 sec ago